Note that earnings estimates were reduced from 60 cents ( 30 days ago ) to 58 cents ( 7 days ago )... really don't know where the estimate of 54 cents came from but their earnings today of 60 cents today should be viewed in light of these recent reductions. Moreover , their 72 cent projection for their next quarter has been pulled as IMB will not provide guidance "temporarily" So , I guess their earning estimate for the year of 2.77 is history... In light of the current state of affairs concerning lending and the rapid increase in NPAs at IMB , they would be hard pressed to show 50-60 next quarter. IMHO
Just think of it. A decision gets made about the most important asset you own, with absolutely no right to face your "accuser". You get sentenced without a right to address the lender on your own behalf. What ancient customs have we brought back to roost here? link
IndyMac recently issued $500 million of preferred securities that pay at 8.5%. This means they pay $42.5 million/yr in interest or just over 10 mil/qtr. Coming from a company that just reporting earnings of $44.6 million for the qtr doesn't look good.
They're getting money from selling their headquarters. They're saving money by laying off 400.
I think they're desperate to maintain their $0.50 quarterly dividend. My prediction is this is going to be the last $0.50 dividend for a while; if it isn't canceled in the next month or so.
Hate to rain on your parade, but that's the key phrase: "If Indymac weren't a thrift." But the fact remains, Indymac is a thrift. They changed over from the REIT structure they had in the early '90's to avoid precisely the problems AHM is now facing, which, BTW, Inymac is avoiding, since repo loans from Wall Street constitute only 4% of their capital.
Yes, their earnings dropped to 60 cents, and ROE dropped to 8.6 percent, which is below their 10% target. But the fact remains that they are profitable. Plus, their current profit covers their 50 cent dividend, which they have maintained (unlike AHM).
And, their cumulative preferred, which the poster above complains they are paying 8.5% on has increased thier regulatory capital. Originally, this money was supposed to be used to finance a buyback of stock, which they decided not to do because of mortgage market conditions. But the fact remains, there the capital sits on their balance sheet, waiting to be put to good use. (Which, according to rumors and press reports I picked up from reading this blog, at one point included the possible acquisition of assests from AHM.)
And let's not forget that their market share is up 15 percent from last quarter.
If you had listended to last quarter's annual meeting and conference call, you would know the increase in non-performing assets is expected.
Sorry, but what the Indymac earnings report shows is that the MBS market is rough, but Indymac is a survivor and winner, not that they are a loser.
I think the stock price says it all: $22.68, up 4.5% as of 10:12 a.m. EDT. We'll see if it holds.
If you are going to comment on Indymac, at least read the entire earnings release, get some background on it, and come on, let's be fair and present the positives as well as the negatives.
grl, do me a favor and read the first paragraph of my post. The rest of you should, too.
This is not a stock investment forum. I am not making any kind of an argument about IndyMac as an investment, as an employer, or as Fortune's Favored Son. I am attempting to see if looking at Indy's report can help us understand the nature of the residential mortgage credit market. That is why "if it weren't a thrift" is an important point.
I think CR and I are both about ready to just quit writing anything at all on specific companies. I know I am. We're going to get Yahooed.
FED is a thrift too; there are more niches in the balance sheet to mask problems or at least delay their consequences but that may not prove curative for the company nor even lead to better practices in the long run (it could even lead to worse practices if the company is actively seeking to hide problems by shifting assets from its retail mortgage facility into its thrift portfolio).
In any case I do not believe it is possible to rationally discuss some of the issues facing the industry w/o using specific companies as examples. Perhaps a 'stock' disclaimer at the end of such posts may reduce the flames or at least encourage short players such as myself (and longs too) to keep our mouths shut about the stock (financial asset w/ price based on collective secondary market opinion) and stay focused on the company (underlying real asset w/ structures and procedures worthy of discussion on this board).
IOW it probably makes sense to ban discussion of stocks but not companies. JMO
I'm not sure how discussion of a publicly traded company's financial situation can be divorced from its stock. It certainly would make it less entertaining.
The stock shot up, and then settled back to down slightly just before the conference call. I decided to cover my puts, for once my timing was perfect, after the call the stock is up $3+.
I have to admit, Perry made a very persuasive case on the call, and they have managed to keep their dividend for now. They are going to survive, and right now are paying out 8%.
They'll probably suffer for another year, but the share price is already down 50%.
Note that earnings estimates were reduced from 60 cents ( 30 days ago ) to 58 cents ( 7 days ago )... really don't know where the estimate of 54 cents came from but their earnings today of 60 cents today should be viewed in light of these recent reductions. Moreover , their 72 cent projection for their next quarter has been pulled as IMB will not provide guidance "temporarily" So , I guess their earning estimate for the year of 2.77 is history... In light of the current state of affairs concerning lending and the rapid increase in NPAs at IMB , they would be hard pressed to show 50-60 next quarter. IMHO
Read this truely amazing article. It brings it all home. It appears people do not even have a right to know who they owe their mortgages to:
link
Just think of it. A decision gets made about the most important asset you own, with absolutely no right to face your "accuser". You get sentenced without a right to address the lender on your own behalf. What ancient customs have we brought back to roost here?
link
IndyMac recently issued $500 million of preferred securities that pay at 8.5%. This means they pay $42.5 million/yr in interest or just over 10 mil/qtr. Coming from a company that just reporting earnings of $44.6 million for the qtr doesn't look good.
They're getting money from selling their headquarters. They're saving money by laying off 400.
I think they're desperate to maintain their $0.50 quarterly dividend. My prediction is this is going to be the last $0.50 dividend for a while; if it isn't canceled in the next month or so.
Hate to rain on your parade, but that's the key phrase: "If Indymac weren't a thrift." But the fact remains, Indymac is a thrift. They changed over from the REIT structure they had in the early '90's to avoid precisely the problems AHM is now facing, which, BTW, Inymac is avoiding, since repo loans from Wall Street constitute only 4% of their capital.
Yes, their earnings dropped to 60 cents, and ROE dropped to 8.6 percent, which is below their 10% target. But the fact remains that they are profitable. Plus, their current profit covers their 50 cent dividend, which they have maintained (unlike AHM).
And, their cumulative preferred, which the poster above complains they are paying 8.5% on has increased thier regulatory capital. Originally, this money was supposed to be used to finance a buyback of stock, which they decided not to do because of mortgage market conditions. But the fact remains, there the capital sits on their balance sheet, waiting to be put to good use. (Which, according to rumors and press reports I picked up from reading this blog, at one point included the possible acquisition of assests from AHM.)
And let's not forget that their market share is up 15 percent from last quarter.
If you had listended to last quarter's annual meeting and conference call, you would know the increase in non-performing assets is expected.
Sorry, but what the Indymac earnings report shows is that the MBS market is rough, but Indymac is a survivor and winner, not that they are a loser.
I think the stock price says it all: $22.68, up 4.5% as of 10:12 a.m. EDT. We'll see if it holds.
If you are going to comment on Indymac, at least read the entire earnings release, get some background on it, and come on, let's be fair and present the positives as well as the negatives.
grl, do me a favor and read the first paragraph of my post. The rest of you should, too.
This is not a stock investment forum. I am not making any kind of an argument about IndyMac as an investment, as an employer, or as Fortune's Favored Son. I am attempting to see if looking at Indy's report can help us understand the nature of the residential mortgage credit market. That is why "if it weren't a thrift" is an important point.
I think CR and I are both about ready to just quit writing anything at all on specific companies. I know I am. We're going to get Yahooed.
Hooray! Ban all discussion of stocks, please, i beg you!
FED is a thrift too; there are more niches in the balance sheet to mask problems or at least delay their consequences but that may not prove curative for the company nor even lead to better practices in the long run (it could even lead to worse practices if the company is actively seeking to hide problems by shifting assets from its retail mortgage facility into its thrift portfolio).
In any case I do not believe it is possible to rationally discuss some of the issues facing the industry w/o using specific companies as examples. Perhaps a 'stock' disclaimer at the end of such posts may reduce the flames or at least encourage short players such as myself (and longs too) to keep our mouths shut about the stock (financial asset w/ price based on collective secondary market opinion) and stay focused on the company (underlying real asset w/ structures and procedures worthy of discussion on this board).
IOW it probably makes sense to ban discussion of stocks but not companies. JMO
Pax
Stock up $1.50 today
I'm not sure how discussion of a publicly traded company's financial situation can be divorced from its stock. It certainly would make it less entertaining.
The stock shot up, and then settled back to down slightly just before the conference call. I decided to cover my puts, for once my timing was perfect, after the call the stock is up $3+.
I have to admit, Perry made a very persuasive case on the call, and they have managed to keep their dividend for now. They are going to survive, and right now are paying out 8%.
They'll probably suffer for another year, but the share price is already down 50%.
Tanta (or any other knowledgeable soul),
Please could you explain what it means for a company to be a thrift (like IndyMac) versus whatever AHM is?
Thanks in advance.