Beyond the Wall of Worry: The Pier of Pain

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And if it hasn't been mentioned already, consumer spending came in at a robust 0% growth rate for June and both inflation measures at 0.1%.

That said, this week's chain store index looks pretty strong. That may be due to falling gas prices. Or it may be a stunning economic rebound that sends the Dow through 20,000 in the next couple of months.

Yal, I like that Case-Shiller index a lot more than either the NAR numbers or that OFHEO index. I think it's the way to go for house prices.

And Robert Shiller is awesome.

Tangle of loans feeds foreclosure crisis
Each month, Stephen and Kim Martinelli sent their mortgage payment to Chase Home Finance, and when they fell behind, it was Chase that launched foreclosure proceedings, with an auction of their Lawrence home scheduled for later this week.
The Martinellis, squeezed by the cost of caring for a disabled son and carrying an adjustable-rate mortgage that boosted their monthly payments by $900 over the past year, pleaded with Chase for a break: for a new payment plan, a lower, more affordable rate, or a delay in the foreclosure, due to hardship.

Chase's answer: "No."

What the Martinellis did not know was that Chase was not calling the shots. Chase merely services the loan, acting as bill collector and administrator.
The mortgage was held by an unknown investor, whom Chase declined to identify and who refused to modify the terms of the Martinellis' loan

They are among thousands of delinquent borrowers caught in the maze of modern mortgage financing as they desperately try to save their homes. Unlike in the last real estate bust, when local banks and credit unions wrote nearly 80 percent of mortgages in Massachusetts, most home loans issued today pass through a nationwide chain of brokers, lenders, service companies, Wall Street firms, and investors. That makes tracing ownership difficult, if not impossible.
link 

Bloomberg is reporting that the TXU lenders including Lehman and CitiGroup might pay a billion dollar breakup fee rather than proceed with fulfilling their loan committments for that LBO ( seems that it's cheaper to walk away rather than take on more pier loans. )

Moin from Germany,

funny that just when the credit market has spoken S&P is doing this

S&P raises Morgan Stanley debt rating to "AA-minus"

Standard & Poor's on Monday raised its debt rating for Morgan Stanley, citing strength in the bank's core investment banking and trading businesses.

S&P raised Morgan Stanley's senior unsecured debt rating to "AA-minus," the fourth highest investment grade rating, from "A-plus."

From vader's article.

The Martinellis bought their single-family home on Beaconsfield Street in 1994 for $92,000. A decade later, they refinanced for a third time, a $274,000 adjustable-rate mortgage...

It goes on to say that they did this due to medical issues with their son, but it strikes me that turning a 92k debt into a 274k debt is pretty damn stupid.

And that mess-o-metaphors broke my brain. I didn't know that people could actually think like that and put it into sentences.

daveNYC, I'm only half kidding with the idea of an Index. When normally articulate people start speaking in tongues, you have an indication of profound market stress.

For the deflation nutter crowd:

The core personal consumption price index rose 1.9% in the past year, the lowest inflation since early 2004, and just within the Federal Reserve's unofficial comfort zone of 1% to 2% for core inflation. Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices. Read the full government report.

Overall inflation also increased 0.1% in June, the lowest monthly inflation since November. Overall inflation is up 2.3% in the past year.

Core inflation rises moderate 0.1% in June

I would expect slowing inflation to increase stress in the credit markets -- inflation is good for borrowers since it lowers the real rates they're paying. Declining inflation is bad since it effectively increases real rates...

I think.

The personal income and spending numbers look lousy to me. Clearly, income is up, but spending is barely so, so savings are up. That means a slowdown in on the way.

Good charts at econobrowser:
Econbrowser: US Economic Growth: Retrospect and Prospect

This morning's market action, the morgan stanley upgrade, etc are all predicated on ongoing growth, which ain't gonna be there.

Puts on the broader market should get cheaper for awhile, though.

This is going to get uglyyy.

He will look in the mirror in about a week and notice gray hair that was not there before. Trust me.

Another Wall o' Worry leading to The Cliffs of Insanity?! With a short squeeze along the way methinks...

Looking for TXU story on news.google, I found:

Harman Deal “Hitting Resistance” $8 billion for Harmon, $44B for TXU and $28 First Data. All by KKR.

Here's one posting on TXU: TXU Lenders May Pull Out LBO, Pay Breakup Fee, Thomson Says .

If you have a quad or head injury kid even with very good insurance it is going to be very tough.

Another Wall o' Worry leading to The Cliffs of Insanity?! With a short squeeze along the way methinks...

Yup. Just get used to the idea that even if the trend is down there's going to be huge volatility in part because of all the short interest and in part due to discount buying as stocks go from being monumentally overpriced to merely grossly overpriced.

If enough shorts pile in I think it's not out of the question that we could break 14,000 again.

Up. Down. Up. Down...

Boy they just missed out on pegging the metaphor-o-meter by not saying "...high yield supply that's flooding the market." A three-metaphor collision doesn't QUITE make the big leagues. ; )

Somewhere between the wall of worry and the pier of pain, there is the Slope of Stupidity.

There's a freight-train of dry powder vibrating the interconnected web of global liquidity as it stalks subprime's next victim.

There's a freight-train of dry powder vibrating the interconnected web of global liquidity as it stalks subprime's next victim with its tentacles.

yes I like the idea of freight trains stalking their victims. Maybe that's what it is. In the good old crises you would have to step in front of it to get rammed - but not anymore, because thanks to miracles of modern finance our freight trains now work like homing missiles!

Like you know, I just discovered looking at my 401k Short Term Fixed Income Fund that even this supposedly safe haven fund somehow managed to put a fraction of its assets into MBS...

I am just a novice, but I read sites like this to try and learn what I can. When you mention your Short Term Fixed Income Fund it rings a bell. My mother-in-law just retired and her broker put all of her retirement into an IMG Senior Income Fund. She told me after she did it and I looked into it. It turns out the fund returns about 6% and they charge almost 4% in management. To get this 10% return they are investing in below investment grade securities and even using some leverage. I even read that IMG and other European insurance companies with these fixed retirement annuities are exposed to subprime in their products.
All of this for a supposedly ultra safe investment being sold retirees.

Thanks for this site Tanta.

The dead cat was impaled by the falling knife, but it didnt matter since that train had left the station before it got derailed.

Why does this site practically spend 100 % of its time on a market that is roughly 5% of our GNP. True economics?

Reading Max and Dirk, didn't someone do a haiku along similar lines once?

Moose, making houses might be 5% of the GNP.

But debt creation is like, 10-20% per year, and housing is relevant there (at almost 50% of debt creation).

Dirk, Dirk, Dirk. You are clearly not unhinged enough to play this game. The train cannot be "derailed." That makes sense. Try this:

The dead cat was impaled by the falling knife, but it didnt matter since that train had left the station before it ate its young.

Moose,

Go back and review the GNP growth stats for the last cycle and parse how much of the marginal economic growth was the housing market and related industries... see how much of this 'vigorous' economic expansion is housing related.

Anyone have ready stats on that?

Did the station doors get closed after the train left?

Is anyone else here a Patrick O'Brian fan? I dearly love Jack Aubrey. In one of the novels he comments that it's like buying a dog and then barking at the barn door yourself.

speaking of metaphors, this is very relevant:

The Big Picture

When they start jabbering "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn." I'm going to sell.

It sounds like "the tentacles are snapping up the bargins, but are they still contained?"

Good to hear that inflation is contained, provided one doesn't need to eat, use energy, get medical care, etc. Anyway, I am off to eat a plasma TV for lunch - they are getting cheaper by the minute!

DannyHsDad,

Walking away and paying the breakup fee? I have got to admit, that is a new one to me. Of course it makes perfect economic sense to do that as the banks, the day the deal closes likely would have several billions in markdowns to deal with.

What the article doesn't discuss is equally important, that they banks couldn't do this without the approval of KKR. If they tried to do this without KKR's approval they'd have a whale of a lawsuit on their hands.

They probably do have KKR's approval, but considering the current business cimate they might have all decided that burning resources on a lawsuit might not be a good idea.

Keeping their powder dry so they can strike while it's hot.

Davenyc,

It sure looks that way doesn't it? For all the talk of KKR telling banks to stuff it in the past week, it was always clear that KKR would act in their best long-term interest. If this happens in even two large deals it dramtically changes the landscape in a positive way.

Less future HY inventory, less IB capital committed, less fear in markets of a credit crunch etc

Banker - but what about the companies trading at over 10x EV/EBITDA just waiting to be snapped up by the PE guys.

10% drop in the EV/EBITDA multiple is going to lead to a market drop of 12/3%

Banker,

Could could Paulson have called his old buddy Kravis and asked for the following deal?...

You (and your fellow PE brethren) let the banks off the hook and we'll just forget about this whole taxation of PE thing... One good scratch of the back for another?

I'm hearing that the PE guys (KKR in particular) have the banks by the balls right now based on commitment letters that are now far from economically feasible given the upside down credit markets.

Paying off the breakup fee would seemingly corroborate this take. Obviously it's less of a hit to pay the fee than to fund the deal and be left holding the pier.

BTW, thx for your insightful contributions.

"If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominos will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate."

-Futurama

Puntino,

Yup, the pain will ultimately be born by those shareholders expecting an LBO on their investment. Hasn't the market already done your math? I mean it is down 4-5% from its highs.

LawFitz,

You (and your fellow PE brethren) let the banks off the hook and we'll just forget about this whole taxation of PE thing... One good scratch of the back for another?

It sounds like if that is happening that Chuck Shumer is also involved in the conversation Smile

I suspect the conversation is more like this. Kravis and friends, Dimon, Prince, Blankfein (and friends) on a conference call.

KRAVIS: You mothers have a contract I expect you to stick by it.

Dimon: We will if required, just don't expect any more for say three years...from any of us, ok?

Kravis: Well, um, maybe we can work something out.

I suspect there is lots of handholding and Kumbaya going on among the banks and no one is breaking ranks, so the PE guys are stuck.

But come on LawFitz! What is your Deep Throat saying? We want scoop!

Banker,

The latest is that my buddy's PE firm is sitting on a pile of cash and is in wait and see mode.

Sr Mgmt is still fearful of a meltdown at worst, but convinced that best case, they will be able to buy distressed assets in the near to intermediate future.

BTW, their Goldman contact's line to them the last couple of days has been "we're open for business." Apparently several others (he mentioned Citi specifically) have shut down their deal flow entirely for the time being until all this is sorted out.

LawFitz,

That is GREAT color, thanks.! I guess Goldman is the best for a reason huh? Smile

banker,

only time will tell if Goldman is right or wrong.

rachits,

No Goldman is the best because they are keeping the conversation going and not limiting themselves before they have to. Real pros.

No Goldman is the best because they are keeping the conversation going and not limiting themselves before they have to. Real pros.

Never saying 'no' is far from saying 'yes'... but doesn't exclude a possible 'yes' someday.

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