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Would Sam Zell sell at near the top?
I wonder why the Hiltons would sell to Blackstone?
Is Blackstone one of the bags?
Eyeballing the first graph it looks like residential spending has returned to where the pre-2002 trend would have left it. The question now is how much will it undershoot the old trendline.
I think in this cycle credit is playing a far bigger role than normal. It's distorting everything, "artificially" extending cycles etc.
I think that's probably what's dragging out the commercial cycle, but I also think that may be coming to an abrupt if the turmoil in the credit markets continues.
All signs today point to slowing growth: consumer spending, Chicago business activity, home prices, construction. Some of the headlines are hilarious -- "Consumer confidence highest since 9/11", for example...
Yes, with a twist to the downside!
I think that the unprecedented duration and strength of the recent RE boom may have longer term upward influence in non residential construction. That could also explain a longer lag.