SoCal: Slow Home Sales for May

Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 06/13/2007 - 11:17am (17 comments)
ac wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 11:42 am

I like how the place with the most Option ARMs holds out the longest.

I don't think that's conincidental.

As California was to the US, Los Angeles is to California.

MaxedOutMama wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:01 pm

Add in rising mortgage rates, and it's just a pity party for RE.

JBR wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:09 pm

Los Angeles? Why, according to everyone but a few bitter renters, RE will not go down here! Ever!

Immigrants! Wealthy foreigners! Movie money! LA is now just like NY, Paris, London! A World City! IT IS DIFFERENT HERE!!!

...sorry... I live here and it's driving me nuts! Smile

ac wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:15 pm

Los Angeles? Why, according to everyone but a few bitter renters, RE will not go down here! Ever!

Seller strikes are more effective when the sellers have a "minimum payment" option.

okamoto wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:19 pm

Flipper Casey flees to Australia?
L.A. Land | L.A. Land is moving to Money & Company | Los Angeles Times 

theroxylandr wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:22 pm

So in 1990's it took 5 years of housing slump (which started around 1990) to get the bottom of sales in 1995.

Oh, oh, we are 3 years from the bottom on that metric, and already close to 1995 bottom.

The recession of 1990's was a joke. It was not a recession, it was a slowdown. Now we will get a recession!

JBR wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:22 pm

Seller strikes are more effective when the sellers have a "minimum payment" option

Agreed, how long can they hold on is the question. Especially in "equity rich" "desirable" areas? Guess we'll find out at some point. :-/

theroxylandr wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:23 pm

I like how the place with the most Option ARMs holds out the longest.

I agree. Option arms are the best thing after cheesecakes Smile

df wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:43 pm

ùhey this is off topic but I can t find the article on housing investment percentage.
I ve read with interest the coment on the used of chained dollars and then some days later a question appeared :
How is residential investment calculated by the way ?
Is any home acquisition a residential investment ? Including old homes ? Or is it only the building industry investment ?
If the same house is sold 2 times a year is it 2 investments that add up or is it counted once or is it not counted ?

What is residential investment ?

Alan Greenspend wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:48 pm

CR,

A bit off topic, but back in 2005 you used to track shipping container volume at the Long Beach Port. This would be a handy indicator to have now methinks.

Do you still monitor that datapoint?

Thanks as always for the great work!

Calculated Risk: Forecasting the Trade Deficit: Part II

Alan Greenspend wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 12:52 pm

df,

here is that blog entry on residential investment -

Calculated Risk: What is "Residential Investment"?

Yal wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 1:12 pm

When the fed writes the Beije book to Mid June saying economy is up and inflation is not - do they already know what are the CPI and PPI numbers ?

Jwm In SD wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 1:23 pm

Volume always precedes price...ALWAYS. Got it PermaBulls??? (that would be you Sebastian).

risk capital wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 1:40 pm

retail trend announcement-

MarketWatch.com

Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com

and fitch gets busy-

MarketWatch.com

MarketWatch.com

MarketWatch.com

Deano wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 2:18 pm

Here's a graph of the SoCal market:

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a216/Pixbucket/07-06-13_SoCal_RE_Price_Small.png

Classic market moderation / soft landing.

joshua Pate wrote on Wed, 6/13/2007 - 2:28 pm

medians don't reflect reality on the ground, especially in LA. the only thing that's selling is the higher end, which has kept the median from falling. Look at what's happened to median ASKING prices--already off 15-20% in LA since the top. the lower market is DOA, which means the move-up market is on life support. The last domino to go will be high-end LA. Eventually the bargains in the low end will cause buying there, and then you will REALLY see the median drop. That will be in around 2009 or so, four years after the top in August 05, a 15% nominal decline and close to 30% in real terms. That won't be the dead bottom either.

df wrote on Thu, 6/14/2007 - 10:27 am

thx for the link

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