Tips for Tanta

I'm broke but get well soon, this blog is now a daily read for me.

CR,

You are all chart and Tanta is all heart. That was a good idea to bring her onboard.

Jim, I agree. Hopefully it's a great mix for everyone - I really enjoy her posts.

Best to all.

In its annual report, the BIS warns about Alt-A:

Global Financial System Vulnerable to Past `Excesses,' BIS Says - Bloomberg.com

Yes, Tanta does a good job.

Maybe you should rethink changing the name of the blog to:

Calculated Risk Enhanced Leverage

OK OK OK I can't go more than a couple hours without checking in to see what the two of you have to say. That is what I call respect.

Off topic but also very much on topic, looks like the Bank of International Settlements (the Central Bank of Central Bankers) is now on board. From today's Telegraph:

"The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.

"Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and Southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived", said the bank."

BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree - Telegraph

Well, I'll be damned. I went down for a nap, and when I woke up, I found out I get all the day's tips!

Better looking than Billy Joel . . . I appreciate the tips, very very much, but I'd do this just for the laughs.

Thanks, everyone, for all the kind comments, which are the real gold.

I don't comment much here, because most of it goes over my head. That said, I really appreciate this blog with Tanta and CR. While I may only understand 10% of what you financial geniuses write... its that 10% that makes me a better person than a Realtor(r)... lol.

"...Tanta is smarter and better looking."

Damn! Does it get better than smart AND good looking?

tanta i hope you're also a better driver than billy joel.

please don't abandon us when u go back to work.

stay sexy, baby...

Tanta - Be strong and I wish you a fast and successful recovery in your treatment!

Noah (urbandigs)

-- tip on the way! Haven't tipped yet, but its clearly time! This blog is a tremendous resource and you deserve just compensation for your contributions!

There's a world of people out there paying $195 for some greasy haired buckster's "No Money Down!!" real estate course. We can't pay Tanta what she's worth. We can let the moths out of the wallet and cough up something, can't we?

How about we pool our tips and invest them? Then the fund would be even bigger. And let's not stoop to 10-12% per year -- let's go for the big bucks.

Anyone know any good investment funds with potential to bring in 25%-50% or so per year? Wink

Outsider,
I have a variable annuity fund that's guaranteed to pay 25% for 4 years.

Tip complete. Be well Tanta.

Tanta, this one's for you.

"They (Bear Stearns) got caught drinking their own Kool-Aid"

Bear Stearns Rivals Reject Fund Bailout in LTCM Redux (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

Tanta,

if you start a hedge fund you can invest the tips in this spread:

WEEKEAHEAD-Emerging debt investors wary of subprime, Fed
| Reuters

(Turbo, where are you ? )

Tanta,

My wife and I began looking for a home in the DC area last December. Because of your and CR's posts, and all of the great comments they elicit from your readers, we are now waiting, and appreciating being renters. Your intelligence, hard work, and amazing wit have become daily reading, and you have helped us avoid a financial catastrophe.

We especially appreciate your ongoing subtext regarding professionalism, reasoned debate, personal character and citizenship. This blog would otherwise be just one more cynical discussion about how to "get over" on everyone else, a trend (not exhibited here) that we feel has seriously damaged our society.

Enjoy your week!

Phil and Iryna

Thank you, Tanta,

You make the internets worth booting up every day!

Live well!

Tanta is a SHE?

Downturn spin in Sacramento. I can't believe the press and these builders think we're this stupid. Shows you how much respect these guys (press and industry) really have for the "apathetic" buyer:

Three executives discuss the challenges of selling homes while buyers wait for prices to hit bottom

View from the front lines
Three executives discuss the challenges of selling homes while buyers wait for prices to hit bottom
By Jim Wasserman - Bee Staff Writer
Published 12:00 am PDT Monday, June 25, 2007

It's hardly on the scale of two years ago, but across the Sacramento region it's still easy to see entire neighborhoods of new houses rising.

Selling them now has become the challenge for an estimated 84 home builders who work the capital region. The five-year housing boom that crested in July 2005 has given way to some of the slowest sales since the late 1990s.

Locally, as nationally, home builders are cutting costs, production and, in some cases, staff. Through May they closed escrow on 3,564 homes in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, according to DataQuick Information Systems. That's 1,245 fewer than the same time last year, which was then considered a poor performance.

Now builders come to summer, one of their busiest sales seasons. Executives of three suburban Sacramento home builders met with The Bee recently for a round-table discussion about the area market.

Two are Sacramento division presidents for national builders -- Kevin Carson of Irvine-based John Laing Homes and Christopher Cady of Michigan-based Pulte Homes. A third is the second-generation owner of a local home building firm, Sid Dunmore of Granite Bay-based Dunmore Homes.

Here are a few of their observations as summer begins.

What is it that buyers are looking for today?

Sid Dunmore: What we're seeing in terms of buyers, they're wanting to put very little down, if anything. There's still a lot of people we would classify as subprime. There are still obviously instruments available for that. If they have a high enough credit score, they can still get 100 percent financing.

We're seeing they don't want to pay a lot in HOA (homeowner association) dues or Mello-Roos fees. And they want a lot of amenities for a very low price, in a great location.

Kevin Carson: We have seen a spike in summer traffic. But as Sid said, it's the no money down and the amenities package, and they continue shopping. But there are a lot of buyers out looking in comparison to 60 days ago.

Christopher Cady: I think there's a certain sense of people saying, "Are you at the bottom or are you not at the bottom?" People are still looking for the values. I think the values are there. The mortgage rates are down. ... I think with where the builders have been -- some of the incentives that have been out there the last 15 to 18 months -- I think things h

I think things have pretty much settled down in that regard. So people are now getting back to the fundamentals: Is it the right neighborhood? Is it close to my job? Is it the right school district?

Buyers' big obsession: Where is the 'bottom?'

Dunmore: The problem with trying to hit the bottom of the market is very few people are able to do that successfully. What you'll end up seeing happening is you'll hit a bottom, and it will bounce from the bottom. And it will come up, and you'll have a lot of customers come back in and say, "I want to buy because I saw, 60 days ago, 90 days ago, a certain price." And that's no longer available. And so I think right now we're probably bouncing around the bottom.

Cady: People have gotten so much into that day-trader mentality with houses. If they just get back to the fundamentals and think about why they're making a home purchase decision: Is it the job center, the schools, your family got bigger, you got a promotion, all those different stages you go through? ... As long as they think this is a long-term decision they'll be fine.

If they think they're going to try and flip it in six months or a year or two years, again it's the same problem you have when you're trading stocks. You're not that good. You're not going to be able to time it right. You need to make the house purchase decision. This is what I want, this is what's best for my family today. This is what I'm willing to do.

A debate on oversupply and life after it ends

Dunmore: You have to understand most of the overhang was created by ourselves. And I hate to say it, but it was mostly the public builders, which couldn't seem to stop building. In light of no sales they just kept on building, and they created this huge overhang. And so now they're eating through it. The private builders haven't been doing that. We've been matching our production to our sales. And so we don't have an overhang. When that does adjust, we think it will adjust somewhat quickly. Not overnight, but somewhat quickly. When the bounce happens, you'll see prices jump $10,000 or $20,000 very quickly.

Carson: Not only will prices jump. You'll also see the best spots and prime locations go first. Because they're what buyers are looking for. Incentives will go away. Inventory will start to dwindle, and all of a sudden there won't be those prime locations that there are right now.

Cady: You're seeing a decrease in supply now. Permits, starts have been off 40- to 45-plus percent. ... There's not as many houses coming out of the ground as there were. Somewhat to Sid's point (about overproducing) I'll completely agree with his private-public comment. But definitely, there's a different business model there and how people adjust to that.

Dunmore: There are good actors and bad actors on the public side as there are on the private side. I'm talking about the bad actors on the public side, the ones that just couldn't stop themsel

Dunmore: There are good actors and bad actors on the public side as there are on the private side. I'm talking about the bad actors on the public side, the ones that just couldn't stop themselves from building houses regardless of how many sales they made. There were a lot of public builders that actually did cut back and did like a private did. ... Others just kept building like there was no tomorrow.

A few last words about finding homebuyers

Carson: The main thing you can control is to build a quality house, keep your customer satisfaction, deliver the best house possible and make sure you're in the locations where people want to live. All of us have been in this area a long time and know those desirable neighborhoods and communities and that's where you want to focus.

Dunmore: Our sales staff tries to do that on a daily basis. Fortunately, or unfortunately, the media is a big part of that. As long as we have negative media, it's going to affect the buyers' mentality. If we have positive media, it affects them on the positive side. If you see things coming out that interest rates are low, job growth is good, income growth is good, all those things, buyers feel good about where they are today.

There are prospects for continued employment, advancements, raises, things like that. Then they feel more comfortable about going out to buy in the market. It's the insecurity that keeps them out. Right now, there's just a lot of buyer apathy. Once we get past that, we'll have a different market. It will balance itself out.

My tip went to Tanta! As an investor, I should say CR posts are more useful for me, but Tanta's posts are written better, she's a great writer.

Tanta & CR,

You both are amazing.

Let me take this opportunity to link to a another paper describing CLOs and also CDOs (and possibly confuse everyone)
http://www.finance.uni-frankfurt.de/wp/373.pdf

Tanta is a SHE?

Not only that. SHE also wears pantyhose with open-toed shoes while playing in a darts league.

Oh wait, that was back when she went out carrying a tiny handbag that had nothing but some cash in it, her keys, and a big bottle of aspirin!

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