If builders can be disciplined and cut back on production, then overall inventory would begin to diminish

The builders are being forced to build excess housing due to an environment of record high prices (and profit potential) created by overzealous investors and first-time homebuyers afraid of being "priced out forever".

Builders have to build or die. Listened to DR Horton and Hovnanian at the BAC conference. Both said that the only way to get land off of the books is to build on it. They have to get the land off the books to pay down their debt. Hovnanian said that they have to have a few specs in every community but that most builders were in replacement mode - starting a spec when one sells. The Horton guy said that time from sale to close is declining. People are starting to look AFTER they have sold their house. Both were worried about foreclosures hitting the market.

Reading between the lines, there may be some concern that they need to get as much done as possible before the banks start aggressively marking the foreclosures down.

I think this is what the Chinese call "Rice bowl politics." In other words people often see the world from the view of their own rice bowl/survival needs.

As some have mentioned here, the builders don't have a choice, they have to build. They can't (at least easily) carry the overhead costs of the land debt service, at least not for any more than the time it takes to turn the raw material over into product (new houses). I'd like to see any manufacturer that could carry that sort of cost without taking a serious hit; what do you think the entire lean manufacturing/just-in-time push was about in the 80's and 90's? There's some serious cash to be recouped from minimizing inventory. And as CR mentioned, new construction is really a small contribution to current inventory of unsold houses.

Sippn was right, this is like car dealerships blaming the manufacturers for their glut of unsold (new and used) vehicles. Yes it's a contributing factor, but it isn't THE cause. And any decent manufacturer in tough times is going to trim their costs while keeping incoming cash flow up to pay their overhead and debt, even if it means selling at a loss. Sometimes they will do this especially if it means selling at a loss. A price war (if they can personally survive it) will drive the weaker competition (that won't be able to meet the same mark downs) out of the market faster and make consolidation and return to profitability faster. Welcome to economic darwinism 101. The constituency of the NAR is just going to have to get used to the idea of taking their lumps.

At least in southern california, most new homes are part of huge masterplanned communities with association dues and mello roos to pay for schools already built. Even if they wanted to, they can't stop building because if so they are stuck paying HOA's on empty lots to pay for the community pool. City governments will also fine them since tax dollars were spent putting roads and drainage in. They are stuck.

I suppose a double-wide is really the poor man's patio home.

Enough with the double wide comments! Double wides or sooo 1970s.

Today's manufactured homes are virtually indistinguishable from stick built houses and no longer come with wheels! When I retire, the plan is to pull the 40 year old mobile home off of our property in Central Oregon and put in double wide manufactured house. Of course, if things get really bad, the backup plan is to go live in the mobile home.

Hmm, no honor among thieves? The NAR is turning on the homeys like the cornered rats we knew they were all along. I wonder who they will throw under the bus next, maybe their own clients? After all, a big price war would still leave them with decent commissions .. better to get 6% of something than nothing from nothing.

Can I get ringside seats to this circus?

If I was going to sell a house, I'd check out one of those fee outfits. Like Help-U-Sell? The only thing I'd want from them is access to MLS. That's it.

It's not rocket science and you'll do a better job than a so-called "professional."

There is a reason I am a software professional. If you want some cheap entertainment, come watch me try to change the oil in my car. A year ago, I was going to be the general on a McMansion we were going to build across the street from my office. But we got the bids in and we chickened out and bought a patio home a couple of blocks over. Another guy in the office was doing the same thing. They were $100K over budget and six months behind schedule. In retrospect, a very good thing we did not build. I just hope it holds together long enough for someone to buy our lot.

OT- Come to think of it, with all of this technology now, who needs MLS? What's the big deal? Will someone explain to me why "realtors" (tm) still have a lock on this?

They work aggressively to keep anyone from breaking ranks and offering MLS listings at a fixed price. They will eventually be disintermediated. Transaction costs in home sales are simply too high.

See: Find All the Homes for Sale & Experienced Real Estate Agents | Redfin. This is a dues paying real estate brokerage that adheres to the party line. You can see how, if they control both sides of the transaction, seller and buyer can each get a substantial fee rebate. This is effectively reducing the MLS fee for those who do not need the hand-holding of a realtor.

Also, that's what home builders do: they build homes. If they stop, what will they do? - Tanta.

Start hedge funds. Big money in that so I hear.

I personally think manufactured housing has a huge future, and that Buffet knows what's what.

My mother lives in a seniors-only mobile home/manufatured housing development that I think is a template for the future; there's a park and community center supported by the HOA, but the city maintains the streets. Everybody owns their own lot. The lots are quite small, big enough for a double-wide, a big porch on one side and parking on the other, and a small garden in the back.

When an older, undesirable home goes on sales, the presence of the house is almost entirely discounted in the sales price. You're just buying the lot. So it's very common for newcomers to buy a lot with an old, mobile home, haul it off, and replace it with a new manufactured home. You get constant urban renewal.

The new homes are pretty decent -- not "mobile homes" with flimsy Masonite inner walls anymore; but they've still got to ratchet up the materials and quality control a bit if they want to lure in more people to this alternative. A manufacturer with Japan-style quality control chops would kick ass.

This is a Realtors worst nightmare and they will try anything from people finding out about it.

Free MLS Listings are now being offered in many states by Iggys House
Iggys House - Real Estate

Very interesting business model as they are promoting their sister company, BuySide realty who pays back 75% of the buyers commission.

"My father had a term for "realtors," doctors, dentists and lawyers.

He asked me once if I knew why this group always has green lawns.

"They fertilize their weeds," he said."

such company!

A manufacturer with Japan-style quality control chops would kick ass.

I've thought the same thing. Even more importantly, they could probably provide more design flexibility & variation than we now see in stick built 'model home' developments.

Start with a large standardized CAD models - assemble in cyberspace what you want. Build the manufactured homes as 'pre-fab modules' in factory & piece them together like Lego blocks on site. Use a lot more glue & stable composites internally instead of fasteners (nails) and they will be MUCH more stable & environmentally efficient & friendly.

Its not only gonna happen - people are going to demand it. In time.

:::::

As for the 'knocks' on suburbia... rethink that with this in consideration:

1) Most people commute from suburb to suburb not suburb to inner city center. If people just take more care to live in the suburb they work in or work in the suburb the live in, that effects the same end as 'new urbanism'.

2) Most suburbs have a lot of space - wasted space you might say - and few services (like transit). Because they have space many will be able to morph into a more sustainable setting - easy to add light rail & dedicated bus routes, etc., when houses are far apart & roadways are wide.

Likewise many high density cities are dependent on cheap energy to get resources in & waste out. That and things like ocean dumping of garbage or trucking to far away rural landfills.

Once energy is expensive it will be very costly to support high mass bulky logistics in and out of very high density regions.

It could be possible to do some 'recycling' right in the city - say convert 'brown field sites'... but those operations are pretty 'smelly'.

And the narrow roads & other infrastructure are not conducive.

There really are no easy answers to either suburban or urban 'sustainability' given current consumption preferences..

My guess is there will be booming business in both settings... converting transit & such in suburbia... and upgrading logistics & in situ recycling in high density cities... to make both places livable in the future.

Think of it as job security for our kids.

"I think there is considerable risk in trying to predict the Boomers" - Wally

Wally, I don't think the Boomers are that hard to predict. I predict they will vote in mass to raise taxes on their children and grandchildren. Who wants to bet against that prediction?

bofiz- "Actually, they're starting to build houses out of all the shipping containers that are piling up on the West Coast."

Years ago, when Mom and Dad bought a refrigerator, the kids got to play in the box. Now, they're going to live in it.

Welcome to the New World Order.

arbogast:
You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls. And those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives...You don't want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall. You need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty...we use these words as the backbone to a life spent defending something. You use 'em as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it! I'd rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!

Re: Boomers

Why do some posters on this board despise this generation? I'm an early boomer whose friends my age display no similar animosity to other generations. They do not characterize other people's residences as Mcshit boxes, doublewides, etc. They don't gleefully grab government benefits and demand their granchidren to pay for them. I realize we all generalize too much, but how about a little more respect for a generation which probably includes your parents for a lot of the posters here.