Better luck next year? Maybe not, say U.S. builders
For anyone waiting for a rebound in the slumping U.S. housing market, the industry's top executives have a piece of advice: Don't hold your breath.
Home builders at the Reuters Real Estate Summit in New York this week said they didn't expect any improvement until 2008 at the earliest. And even then, their expectations are modest.
"'08 is probably not going to be a year of strong recovery," said Larry Sorsby, executive vice president and chief financial officer at No. 6 U.S. home builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
"Our hope is that it stays no worse than we are today," Sorsby said. "We're not predicting any significant recovery."
Knowledge is always gathered for a reason-not always, I have an incredible storehouse of knowledge that may never be of use, but satisfies my curiousity or qualifies as something I have noticed.
Wisdom is always gathered for a reason, to avoid the repeat of unpleasant experiences.
All seems to be calmly moving higher after the fed did precisely nothing at today's meeting.
They still seem concerned about inflation though...in spite of those housing market "adjustments", sorry about that ol' chap, you'll just have to suck up those losses in housing speculation, as we are worried about the price of milk today.
The Fed is remarkably impotent right now. Their little overnight rate has become a small piece of a very large global financing picture.
But in any case they can't raise because that would make a disastrous housing situation ever worse. And they can't lower because inflation is on the march (despite what they say about the core rate) and liquidity is proving more a problem than a solution.
Caliber Global Investment Ltd., a London-listed fund that controlled almost $1 billion of mortgage assets, said on Thursday that it's shutting down after turmoil in the subprime market cut demand for its shares.
This news item preceded the FOMC minutes. Sorry if the link doesn't work.
"Out here, Out here on the streets the price of "stuff that you need to survive" is absurdly high. Tried grocery shopping lately? Its cheaper to eat out. $50 dollars a week for gas is more than my tiny little car payment, what? Yeah I have to drive 30-50 miles to work everyday... some people drive A LOT MORE!"
"Shipping charges have gone through the roof... USPS has officially brought out the "Alien probe" with the switch to "size package pricing" vs. weight pricing. 200% increase in fees"
"My Electric utility bill had some mystery $10 dollar "service" fee's attached for some reason this month... customer service doesn't know why either?"
"Is my phone bill going down? NO!"
Core inflation is dumb. Everything costssss a lot more these days. Open your eyes!!!!!!
USA Today has just about the happiest article Ive read in a business section for quite some time. Dark side to leverage slows buyouts, says the headline.
I love it. Even if it is 20 years late.
The fear is that dealmakers could face tougher times, says Adam Shell, the writer of the piece, going on to quote New York money manager Michael Holland, who says, The perceived wisdom is it wont be so easy for private-equity firms to fund their deals with silly money.
Bad news, then, for deal vampires who suck up loose entities and spit them out as consolidated parts of crazy new corporate monsters. Good news for people who work inside organizations who need to be part of a big deal about as much as they need a goiter.
Lets say it here. There are two classes in business, or at least two. Okay, maybe there are a lot more than two, but Im going to talk about two, and here they are:
1. People who work inside a business to create value for investors by producing something: a product, a service, a new idea, or managing people who do.
2. People who make money pushing money around, or helping people who do.
The interests of these two groups do not often converge below the level of ultra-senior management in Group 1, who tend to hang with Group 2 dudes and eventually become them.
Deals, particularly those which are financed by silly money, are almost always bad for middle management, thats for sure, because the synergies, economies of scale, and other means of defenestrating human life almost always come out of the hides of people who manage people while themselves being managed by bigger people that is, my friends and yours.
Think of the implications! Companies looking for acquisitions may have to use REAL money to buy them! In order to justify that kind of expenditure, theyll need a genuine rationale for doing the deal, not just that its, you know, cool, and will make all the lawyers, investment bankers and deal jockeys a bundle. What a bummer for them. What are they going to use their MBAs for?
But for we who labor within? How sweet it could be! Some deals may not even get done! Consolidation may slow! People may end up being able to spend more than two years at each iteration of their company! There will be way fewer scary, lengthy meetings over holiday weekends!
We can all go to lunch and know where our cheese is when we return!
I blogged about this earlier. It appears -- although I'm still not certain on this -- that the IPO is on, but has been given a 115 mln haircut before offer.
Funny, too, is that my earlier post made comments along the same lines regarding the "timing" comment.
If you read the Fed notes, it is crystal clear that the bull case, as it is advanced in these comments by Banker and Sebastian, is keeping the Fed from loosening rates.
Hence, whatever else may be said about the bull case, it has to include the premise that the Fed will not lower rates.
The Fed CANNOT ease because ECB is so hawkish(maybe too hawkish). We can't let Mid East and Asian Central Banks diversify 'too much' into euros or we'll have to pay through the nose to refinance our federal debt.
"Carlyle is preparing a revised timetable for the sale"-
I love language like this.
Everything's just like it always was, we've just revised the timetable a bit.
And the housing market's doing great. It's just that the pool of buyers have revised their timetables a little.
Better luck next year? Maybe not, say U.S. builders
For anyone waiting for a rebound in the slumping U.S. housing market, the industry's top executives have a piece of advice: Don't hold your breath.
Home builders at the Reuters Real Estate Summit in New York this week said they didn't expect any improvement until 2008 at the earliest. And even then, their expectations are modest.
"'08 is probably not going to be a year of strong recovery," said Larry Sorsby, executive vice president and chief financial officer at No. 6 U.S. home builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
"Our hope is that it stays no worse than we are today," Sorsby said. "We're not predicting any significant recovery."
Better luck next year? Maybe not, say U.S. builders
| Reuters
The 12 step program must be working they're getting past denial
Knowledge is always gathered for a reason.
Knowledge is always gathered for a reason-not always, I have an incredible storehouse of knowledge that may never be of use, but satisfies my curiousity or qualifies as something I have noticed.
Wisdom is always gathered for a reason, to avoid the repeat of unpleasant experiences.
All seems to be calmly moving higher after the fed did precisely nothing at today's meeting.
They still seem concerned about inflation though...in spite of those housing market "adjustments", sorry about that ol' chap, you'll just have to suck up those losses in housing speculation, as we are worried about the price of milk today.
Someday this war's gonna end...
The Fed is remarkably impotent right now. Their little overnight rate has become a small piece of a very large global financing picture.
But in any case they can't raise because that would make a disastrous housing situation ever worse. And they can't lower because inflation is on the march (despite what they say about the core rate) and liquidity is proving more a problem than a solution.
Interesting days, these.
Knowledge is the appropriate collection of information, such that its intent is to be useful. Knowledge is a deterministic process.
Wisdom is an extrapolative an non-deterministic, non-probabilistic process.
"Subprime shakeout claims another fund"...
Caliber Global Investment Ltd., a London-listed fund that controlled almost $1 billion of mortgage assets, said on Thursday that it's shutting down after turmoil in the subprime market cut demand for its shares.
This news item preceded the FOMC minutes. Sorry if the link doesn't work.
Subprime mortgage shakeout claims another fund - MarketWatch
Carlyle cuts IPO price due to market "headwinds"
Carlyle cuts IPO price due to market headwinds
| Reuters
"We have priced the deal at $19 a share. Originally, it was $20-$22," CEO John Stomber told Reuters in an interview.
The FED is a joke.
The Avg. American says:
"Out here, Out here on the streets the price of "stuff that you need to survive" is absurdly high. Tried grocery shopping lately? Its cheaper to eat out. $50 dollars a week for gas is more than my tiny little car payment, what? Yeah I have to drive 30-50 miles to work everyday... some people drive A LOT MORE!"
"Shipping charges have gone through the roof... USPS has officially brought out the "Alien probe" with the switch to "size package pricing" vs. weight pricing. 200% increase in fees"
"My Electric utility bill had some mystery $10 dollar "service" fee's attached for some reason this month... customer service doesn't know why either?"
"Is my phone bill going down? NO!"
Core inflation is dumb. Everything costssss a lot more these days. Open your eyes!!!!!!
OT:
Don't worry about Subprime and CDO's we now have the Diamond Derivatives Market...
Diamond Derivative Contracts Market Could Reach $200 Billion - Bloomberg.com
OT, Tanta, but a comment on the decline of leverage from someone with similar gift for dark sarcasm, Stanley Bing.
Bad news for leverage addicts - The Bing Blog
Bad news for leverage addicts
USA Today has just about the happiest article Ive read in a business section for quite some time. Dark side to leverage slows buyouts, says the headline.
I love it. Even if it is 20 years late.
The fear is that dealmakers could face tougher times, says Adam Shell, the writer of the piece, going on to quote New York money manager Michael Holland, who says, The perceived wisdom is it wont be so easy for private-equity firms to fund their deals with silly money.
Bad news, then, for deal vampires who suck up loose entities and spit them out as consolidated parts of crazy new corporate monsters. Good news for people who work inside organizations who need to be part of a big deal about as much as they need a goiter.
Lets say it here. There are two classes in business, or at least two. Okay, maybe there are a lot more than two, but Im going to talk about two, and here they are:
1. People who work inside a business to create value for investors by producing something: a product, a service, a new idea, or managing people who do.
2. People who make money pushing money around, or helping people who do.
The interests of these two groups do not often converge below the level of ultra-senior management in Group 1, who tend to hang with Group 2 dudes and eventually become them.
Deals, particularly those which are financed by silly money, are almost always bad for middle management, thats for sure, because the synergies, economies of scale, and other means of defenestrating human life almost always come out of the hides of people who manage people while themselves being managed by bigger people that is, my friends and yours.
Think of the implications! Companies looking for acquisitions may have to use REAL money to buy them! In order to justify that kind of expenditure, theyll need a genuine rationale for doing the deal, not just that its, you know, cool, and will make all the lawyers, investment bankers and deal jockeys a bundle. What a bummer for them. What are they going to use their MBAs for?
But for we who labor within? How sweet it could be! Some deals may not even get done! Consolidation may slow! People may end up being able to spend more than two years at each iteration of their company! There will be way fewer scary, lengthy meetings over holiday weekends!
We can all go to lunch and know where our cheese is when we return!
on-deterministic, non-probabilistic process
That pretty much describes my stock trading. I must be very wise....
Tanta -
I blogged about this earlier. It appears -- although I'm still not certain on this -- that the IPO is on, but has been given a 115 mln haircut before offer.
Funny, too, is that my earlier post made comments along the same lines regarding the "timing" comment.
URI: Subprime Hedge Fund Trouble: One Fails, Another Cuts : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
Aw. Guess all is not rosy for Bush's buddies in the Bush economy. So sad.
Good thing the Supreme Court is taking us right back to the 1890s, though with their price fixing ruling! Hey, now they can resurrect Standard Oil!
If you read the Fed notes, it is crystal clear that the bull case, as it is advanced in these comments by Banker and Sebastian, is keeping the Fed from loosening rates.
Hence, whatever else may be said about the bull case, it has to include the premise that the Fed will not lower rates.
I defy anyone to naysay that.
So you suggest that they better had rased rates today? THAT would be a joke
The Fed CANNOT ease because ECB is so hawkish(maybe too hawkish). We can't let Mid East and Asian Central Banks diversify 'too much' into euros or we'll have to pay through the nose to refinance our federal debt.