"The percentage of 1-4 family residential mortgage loans that were noncurrent rose from 1.05 percent to 1.13 percent during the quarter. This is the highest noncurrent rate for residential mortgage loans in the 17 years that insured institutions have been reporting these data."
Even SV has tons of "For Lease" signs on commercial space....if commerical space is going to save the economy, I just don't see how. My bet is the loaning-of-OPM has moved from residential to commercial to continue generating fees.
It seems that when one gets to play with OPM, the trick is to find ways to kick the day of loss realization and mark-to-market down the road as far as possible, even if that makes the eventual problem larger.
In fact, in Milpitas, one of the home builders tore down a commercial building to produce a dirt lot, which now has a fence all around it with signs on it announcing that a New Home Community is coming soon.
REBear - gotta link? Do they say where and in what part of the company (say B2B & network vs consumer products or production vs support vs white collar O/H)?
Just curious. I'd been expecting that for a while. Dell seems kinda lifeless.
Ya but it could just be more visible too. I'd like to see 'data' before I'd be sure its really a trend. Big companies lay off and make front page while a bunch of little companies (or sub-contractors) lay off and no one notices... especially if they're 1099.
I'm not sure its really any worse yet... certainly not like the carnage after Y2K...
Commercial real estate is out of control almost to the extent residential housing is. Commercial Mortgage Bond underwriting is across the board based on operating incomes 10 to 30% above actual (as in literally - of the last ~100 mortgage loans I've looked at not a single one was within 5% of 2006 net operating income, they were all 10 to 30% above).
Did you see Institutional real estate survey (I believe from March or April) that said pension funds and endowments will curb investments by 22% in 2007? That translates to roughly $10 billion dollars less flowing in. ACLI (American council of life insurers) has also reported >10% quarterly (~40% annual) declines in mortgage underwriting for the last 2 quarters . The MIT RCA real estate press release that came out last week said we are now past the market top.
"The findings indicate that many CEOs feel the market may cool in the near future and, according to Jerry Flum, CEO of CreditRiskMonitor, "absurd debt and credit deals for [corporations] are reflective of the end of a major business cycle." "
Nearly 900,000 sqft is being built in OC. I don't know if I am just becoming aware of the signs that have always been there but in the Irvine and Tustin area there are plenty of for lease signs. With the types of jobs being created in OC there is no way that amount of space can be filled with all of the space being added from the broke lenders.
Moody's cuts Beazer, Hovnanian debt deeper into junk
Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com
CFC has started traading differenly the last 3 days.
I am not a TA but it is by far more volatile as if a player that was supporting it is out of the game.
we know someone sold about 20M shares not long ago. (to CFC itself)
Did you see this nugget in the QBP:
"The percentage of 1-4 family residential mortgage loans that were noncurrent rose from 1.05 percent to 1.13 percent during the quarter. This is the highest noncurrent rate for residential mortgage loans in the 17 years that insured institutions have been reporting these data."
Even SV has tons of "For Lease" signs on commercial space....if commerical space is going to save the economy, I just don't see how. My bet is the loaning-of-OPM has moved from residential to commercial to continue generating fees.
It seems that when one gets to play with OPM, the trick is to find ways to kick the day of loss realization and mark-to-market down the road as far as possible, even if that makes the eventual problem larger.
In fact, in Milpitas, one of the home builders tore down a commercial building to produce a dirt lot, which now has a fence all around it with signs on it announcing that a New Home Community is coming soon.
Commercial building is a lagging indicator.
Hey folks,
This is off topic, but is a must see, some very cool software as well. It might take a little time to download, but what this guy has to say is very much worth listening to.
Hans Rosling shows the best stats you've ever seen | Video on TED.com
Dell reports slight profit drop, plans to cut 8,800 jobs
REBear - gotta link? Do they say where and in what part of the company (say B2B & network vs consumer products or production vs support vs white collar O/H)?
Just curious. I'd been expecting that for a while. Dell seems kinda lifeless.
dryfly,
Dell reports profit dip, plans to slash 8,800 jobs - MarketWatch
The report doesn't go into specifics...
HOV missed by 1 cent, withdrew guidance, has $10 mil cash left, expects Q3 cash-negative
Lotta layoff announcements lately...
Lotta layoff announcements lately...
Ya but it could just be more visible too. I'd like to see 'data' before I'd be sure its really a trend. Big companies lay off and make front page while a bunch of little companies (or sub-contractors) lay off and no one notices... especially if they're 1099.
I'm not sure its really any worse yet... certainly not like the carnage after Y2K...
Commercial real estate is out of control almost to the extent residential housing is. Commercial Mortgage Bond underwriting is across the board based on operating incomes 10 to 30% above actual (as in literally - of the last ~100 mortgage loans I've looked at not a single one was within 5% of 2006 net operating income, they were all 10 to 30% above).
Did you see Institutional real estate survey (I believe from March or April) that said pension funds and endowments will curb investments by 22% in 2007? That translates to roughly $10 billion dollars less flowing in. ACLI (American council of life insurers) has also reported >10% quarterly (~40% annual) declines in mortgage underwriting for the last 2 quarters . The MIT RCA real estate press release that came out last week said we are now past the market top.
Kasriel:
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0705/document/ec053007.pdf
More Kasriel
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0705/document/ec052507.pdf
Lurker, thanks for the Northern Trust link. I usually check it once a week to get Kasriel's take.
Gene Epstein of Barron's has an agenda, and Paul Krugman has smacked him down before. If Epstein writes it, I don't read it.
ot good-
Hovnanian reports loss; CEO says market has slipped further - MarketWatch
risk - give'em some credit, they at least have tightened up their cash flow drain...
Net Change in Cash & Cash Equivalents
Q107...-45.01
Q406...-156.95
Q306...-163.47
Q206...-158.60
But then I guess they have to...
Cash at End of Period \t
Q107...9.32 \t
Q406...54.32 \t
Q306...47.80 \t
Q206...52.68
Quarterly Cash Flow Statement
dryfly-
check this out-
Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com
risk - there must not be as much Chinese toothpaste out there as we thought.
"The findings indicate that many CEOs feel the market may cool in the near future and, according to Jerry Flum, CEO of CreditRiskMonitor, "absurd debt and credit deals for [corporations] are reflective of the end of a major business cycle." "
MarketWatch.com
CR,
I am sure you caught this from the Register O.C. office and industrial projects | valencia, harbor, blvdla - Business - The Orange County Register
Nearly 900,000 sqft is being built in OC. I don't know if I am just becoming aware of the signs that have always been there but in the Irvine and Tustin area there are plenty of for lease signs. With the types of jobs being created in OC there is no way that amount of space can be filled with all of the space being added from the broke lenders.