About time. Good night Brad Morrice, where ever you are.
CFC Mozilo up to bat at 7A tomorrow on CNBC for some softball interview that he can steer any way he chooses on CNBC.
Add M&T AltA loan sale failure and repurchase of AltA EPDs along with day 10 or so of the Brit hostages and we should have a nice bearish first day of Q2.
Home prices in the area have been falling an average of 1% a month since November 2005, according to Carole Laval, an appraiser in Fresno, and the homeowners, especially those with spotty credit, couldnt get a new loan.
They were buying too big a house, driving too nice a car and when they had to pay the piper, they couldnt do it. They didnt have it to begin with, said Charles Adkins, loan consultant in Fresno.
Fresno bankruptcy attorney Kristine Kelly said she has taken on about 15 foreclosure-related bankruptcies per month this year, compared with a negligible number last year. Its wreaking havoc on our clients. They dont even have money to move.
Mortgage default notices are up across the country, and thats true here in San Joaquin County. About one in 10 homes on the market now is either a bank-owned foreclosure property or a short-sale.
It is a good time for the buyer as long as youre smart, said Dale Gray, CEO of the Central Valley Association of Realtors.
Legislators must have the courage to stand up to the lending industry, which continues to oppose stronger California laws, and protect consumers from reckless, abusive loans. The home mortgage crisis in California is not going to be self-correcting.
NEW had an offer to be acquired by Morgan Stanley for $55/share around May/June of last year... they declined so MS ended up buying Saxon. I do believe I hear my dear friend Herr Schadenfreude calling...
Mortgage woes seen holding US growth "below trend"
A credit crunch stemming from turmoil in the subprime mortgage market will trigger further weakness in housing and keep U.S. economic growth "below trend" most of this year, a UCLA Anderson Forecast unit said in a report on Monday.
The sluggish growth will help clear the way for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy at the end of the second quarter despite a historically low 4.5 percent unemployment rate, the economic forecasting unit said in its report.
Sorry if this is OT, but does anyone have a good idea or prediction about when CFC will get serious about moving REOs off their books?
Their bank-owned inventory seems to be skyrocketing, and their prices don't seem one bit realistic.
For example, in the Las Vegas townhouse complex I am bitterly renting in, I have been keeping track of all sales and waiting for the REOs to finally start piling up (the community was built in 2005).
Sure enough, today I received an MLS listing of a townhouse that sold in May 2006 for $235,000. Now it's listed as a "corporate owned" property that was foreclosed upon at $243.000. Hmmm. Looks like some neg. amortization piled up there.
Now, after finding out that it's a CFC-owned property, here's their asking price: $224,000. Are they serious? I wouldn't pay over $150,000 on my most generous day, and they've barely discounted it.
At some point, Mozilo is going to have to get serious about moving these REOs. If I could call into CNBC today, that's what I would asked The Tanned One.
I'm parachuting in here after several days on vacation (still on it technically)so this may have already been covered, but it seems that Barney Frank and Maxine Waters would like to recreate the subprime debacle within the confines of the FHA. Among the provisions of the bill:
"Authorizing zero down and lower down payment FHA loans for homebuyers who could not otherwise make the down payment required under current FHA rules, to make FHA more consistent with other private sector loan products.
Directing FHA to underwrite to borrowers with higher credit risk than FHA currently serves that are still creditworthy to take out a mortgage loan, but are otherwise now being driven into the subprime loan market, with much higher mortgage rates."
You know that definition of insanity...here it is brought to you by Congress.
You know that definition of insanity...here it is brought to you by Congress.
If there is a borrower bailout, think of all the subprime candidates that will have missed out on the free lunch. We need to get these people into the market now, before we lose a valuable constituency!
I can't find the bill number or the text of the "Expanding Homeownership Act of 2007. The last paragraph of the press release--among other things--just made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.
Anyone out there got text of this thing? Or know when it will hit the FR?
More shit to get fired up about in the 2006 version:
(3) Existing technology systems for the FHA program have not been updated to meet the latest standards of the Mortgage Industry Standards Maintenance Organization and have numerous deficiencies that lenders have outlined.
(4) Improvements to technology used in the FHA program will--
(A) allow the FHA program to improve the management of the FHA portfolio, garner greater efficiencies in its operations, and lower costs across the program;
(B) result in efficiencies and lower costs for lenders participating in the program, allowing them to better use the FHA products in extending homeownership opportunities to higher credit risk or lower-income families, in a sound manner.
(5) The Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund operates without cost to the taxpayers and generates revenues for the Federal Government.
(b) Sense of Congress- It is the sense of the Congress that--
(1) the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development should use a portion of the funds received from premiums paid for FHA single family housing mortgage insurance that are in excess of the amounts paid out in claims to substantially increase the funding for technology used in such FHA program;
(2) the goal of this investment should be to bring the technology used in such FHA program to the level and sophistication of the technology used in the conventional mortgage lending market, or to exceed such level
I have exactly no problem with bringing FHA up to MISMO standards. Any researcher out there who has struggled with comparing FHA data to conventional market data would be glad about this; trust me.
MISMO has squat to do with AUS. It's a data standard.
But does anyone else think it's a little weird to pay for this out of insurance premiums? Besides the obvious issue of taking credit-loss insurance premia to pay for overhead, what's with the idea that borrowers should pay the cost of tech that makes life easier for lenders? What about a little surcharge on FHA lenders? Where's all that rah-rah about how technological innovation passes cost savings onto consumers?
Gawd, it's 9:30 on Monday and I'm already wound up past my limits.
Thanks, Kevin. Remember that HUD (FHA) is not a GSE. It's a plain old government agency, not a "sponsored enterprise." So HR 1427 is the Fannie/Freddie deform--sorry, "reform"--not the FHA "reform."
ISM (mnf) comes in at 50.9 down from 52.3 (all comps month to month), employment subindex at 48.7 vs 51.1, new orders 51.6 vs 54.9, order backlog at 47 vs 51.5.
ISM (mnf) comes in at 50.9 down from 52.3 (all comps month to month), employment subindex at 48.7 vs 51.1, new orders 51.6 vs 54.9, order backlog at 47 vs 51.5.
Maufacturing is only 12% of the economy, it could fall to zero and not really matter. BUY MORE STOCKS NOW.
Since asking for things has worked out so well for me this morning . . .
Do any of you Real Economists have a link to a decently accessible article or blog musing or something online on the subject of reification of economic constructs?
If it's too po-mo, I warn you I won't read it. I am a recreational reader of literary criticism, so I get my RDA of that stuff from other food sources. If it's just a little po-mo I'll read it. If it's not po-mo enough it may not be what I'm looking for. But I'm not picky.
Sorry not to do my own damned research, but hell, I'm a mortgage lender. I'm here to exploit people.
and don't forget in that ISM report that the inflation component (prices paid subindex) shot higher -- to 65.5 in March from 59 in February. That's the highest reading since August 2006. Employment sub-index is the weakest since May 2005, when it was also 48.7. You have to go all the way back to October 2003 to find a worse reading.
It evokes a discursive mise-en-scene valorizing libidinal disruptions in the binary economy of signifier refinancing signified in order to mis/rep/re/sent stasis as stability, a mere nostalgia for always already lost innocence. In this fashion it brings capitalism to its knees. Or something. I suspect you had to have been there.
Good read as always: this weekend I was looking at wine property in Chile and Canada via the internet. Which became a general look into the SFH prices as well and by region.
One thing to keep in mind about the American run-up in RE is that its' global. The prices in Chile and Canada in many areas are the same in Calif or NY. The CI article mentioned the TEI bond fund which is going to be a good indicatior going forward about the availability of funds to support this global RE push up.
and don't forget in that ISM report that the inflation component (prices paid subindex) shot higher -- to 65.5 in March from 59 in February. That's the highest reading since August 2006
Don't worry... that's just all the easy money working it's way through the system.
We know from history that credit bubbles drive prices up, and as the availability of credit reverses course so do the inflationary pressures... unless the Fed responds with some other "money printing" scheme. They're running out of bubbles to create so it may have to be something more creative this time around.
"It is with great regret and sadness that I must announce that SouthStar is ceasing its mortgage lending operations today, April 2, 2007. This decision was brought upon by events in the secondary markets that developed toward the end of last week. We identified two potential buyers of our company that would have allowed us to continue operating but were notified on Friday and Sunday respectively that this would not be a viable option. This leaves us no choice but to cease operations."
In short, money is not longer a store of value. There is no need for capitalism.
If credit becomes much tighter, that could increase the value of money, providing it doesn't lead to economic collapse.
The big question to determining the future value of money in the US, I believe, is the actions of the Fed and the US government. Do they systematically devalue the dollar to attempt to kick some life back into the economy?
That's the problem we've gotten ourselves into now with all the borrowing and asset bubbles - it's kind of a lose-lose scenario.
When did it leave? Ausies began their bubble before us.
It's all about dishonesty.
Lenders are going bankrupt.
Of course, I suppose if there were a conspiracy of unscrupulous borrowers deceiving well-meaning, naive lenders... Like Sandy Weil and Chuck Prince. Yes, this is all about unscrupulous borrowers.
What else is to be expected in a nation over-lorded by Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City?
Every single one of those bastards need to have their ass kicked with maybe the exception of Ron Paul.
I will vote for that! Although, we should also include crucifixion of some noted Bankrupters to make it more entertaining. Blood and entertainment is what people crave for when they are angry.
Committee today introduced the Expanding Homeownership Act of 2007. ... today passed H.R. 1427
That is right out of the Constitution of the United States!:
Article VIII
Congress shall make necessary laws to enable any American resident, citizen or not, legal resident or not, to become a homeowner regardless of his, or her, ability to afford the resulting debt burden.
more appropriate here!!!
Bye-bye housing boom
Who will buy my no-doc loan?
New Century dies
Just saw an ad for a refi of "$599,000 for only $1997 / month".
And here's the part that really caught my eye:
"No SSN Required".
About time. Good night Brad Morrice, where ever you are.
CFC Mozilo up to bat at 7A tomorrow on CNBC for some softball interview that he can steer any way he chooses on CNBC.
Add M&T AltA loan sale failure and repurchase of AltA EPDs along with day 10 or so of the Brit hostages and we should have a nice bearish first day of Q2.
I don't think they will file banko...they are too big to fail.
April Fools!
When do the hedge funds release gains/losses for this quarter? I wonder how much this is going to cost them
Home prices in the area have been falling an average of 1% a month since November 2005, according to Carole Laval, an appraiser in Fresno, and the homeowners, especially those with spotty credit, couldnt get a new loan.
They were buying too big a house, driving too nice a car and when they had to pay the piper, they couldnt do it. They didnt have it to begin with, said Charles Adkins, loan consultant in Fresno.
Fresno bankruptcy attorney Kristine Kelly said she has taken on about 15 foreclosure-related bankruptcies per month this year, compared with a negligible number last year. Its wreaking havoc on our clients. They dont even have money to move.
Mortgage default notices are up across the country, and thats true here in San Joaquin County. About one in 10 homes on the market now is either a bank-owned foreclosure property or a short-sale.
It is a good time for the buyer as long as youre smart, said Dale Gray, CEO of the Central Valley Association of Realtors.
A smart buyer does not listen to a Realtor....
Mortgage fraud is a huge part of (the subprime meltdown), said attorney James Brody.
From the SacBee opinion piece:
Legislators must have the courage to stand up to the lending industry, which continues to oppose stronger California laws, and protect consumers from reckless, abusive loans. The home mortgage crisis in California is not going to be self-correcting.
Gee, I wonder what Sebastian is doing? Selling BODACIOUS microwave burritos wrapped in his NEW certificates to the CFC lunchtime crowd?
Short the food stocks.
Tainted Wheat Gluten Sold as "Food Grade"
David Goldstein: Tainted Wheat Gluten Sold as "Food Grade"
NEW had an offer to be acquired by Morgan Stanley for $55/share around May/June of last year... they declined so MS ended up buying Saxon. I do believe I hear my dear friend Herr Schadenfreude calling...
Bubble is moving to Australia:
Google Trends: real estate
I missed fridays news on continuing deteriation in prime loans. The alt/a story seemed to be the news
Moody’s: Deterioration Continues for Prime-Quality Mortgage Pools : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
Mortgage woes seen holding US growth "below trend"
A credit crunch stemming from turmoil in the subprime mortgage market will trigger further weakness in housing and keep U.S. economic growth "below trend" most of this year, a UCLA Anderson Forecast unit said in a report on Monday.
The sluggish growth will help clear the way for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy at the end of the second quarter despite a historically low 4.5 percent unemployment rate, the economic forecasting unit said in its report.
Mortgage woes seen holding US growth below trend
| Reuters
Well Duh!
Sorry if this is OT, but does anyone have a good idea or prediction about when CFC will get serious about moving REOs off their books?
Their bank-owned inventory seems to be skyrocketing, and their prices don't seem one bit realistic.
For example, in the Las Vegas townhouse complex I am bitterly renting in, I have been keeping track of all sales and waiting for the REOs to finally start piling up (the community was built in 2005).
Sure enough, today I received an MLS listing of a townhouse that sold in May 2006 for $235,000. Now it's listed as a "corporate owned" property that was foreclosed upon at $243.000. Hmmm. Looks like some neg. amortization piled up there.
Now, after finding out that it's a CFC-owned property, here's their asking price: $224,000. Are they serious? I wouldn't pay over $150,000 on my most generous day, and they've barely discounted it.
At some point, Mozilo is going to have to get serious about moving these REOs. If I could call into CNBC today, that's what I would asked The Tanned One.
Thanks for any input.
-- The Judge
Residential home builders have been constructing Lexuses for a population that can only afford non-frills subcompacts.
Owners of used homes have come to believe that they owned Lexuses when, in fact, they owned Chevy Malibu's.
All this has occurred because unscrupulous money lenders made loans that misrepresented just about everything they could misrepresent.
It's all about dishonesty.
I'm parachuting in here after several days on vacation (still on it technically)so this may have already been covered, but it seems that Barney Frank and Maxine Waters would like to recreate the subprime debacle within the confines of the FHA. Among the provisions of the bill:
"Authorizing zero down and lower down payment FHA loans for homebuyers who could not otherwise make the down payment required under current FHA rules, to make FHA more consistent with other private sector loan products.
Directing FHA to underwrite to borrowers with higher credit risk than FHA currently serves that are still creditworthy to take out a mortgage loan, but are otherwise now being driven into the subprime loan market, with much higher mortgage rates."
You know that definition of insanity...here it is brought to you by Congress.
http://blownmortgage.typepad.com/blownmortgage_blog/
Lenders are going bankrupt.
Is there anything peculiar about that sentence?
Aren't borrowers supposed to go bankrupt?
Of course, I suppose if there were a conspiracy of unscrupulous borrowers deceiving well-meaning, naive lenders...
Like Sandy Weil and Chuck Prince.
Yes, this is all about unscrupulous borrowers.
And Congress! God forbid that Congress should come in on the side of the unscrupulous borrowers.
What's a lender to do?
To 'save' housing, congress has to order more dollar printing machines and turn them to max. This process will hasten dollar decline.
At the same time we see the Chinese ready to spend their trillion.
Are the Chinese trying to spend their dollars before possible devaluation?
Thank God NEW is finally filing. The suspense has been killing me.
You know that definition of insanity...here it is brought to you by Congress.
Every single one of those bastards need to have their ass kicked with maybe the exception of Ron Paul.
If you think this subprime thing is bad wait until the corn bubble bursts.
It's going to be a bloodbath.
At some point, Mozilo is going to have to get serious about moving these REOs.
There's a guy tracking CFCs REO:
Countrywide Foreclosures (REO) Blog
According to him, CFCs is asking $1.3B for its REO inventory.
You know that definition of insanity...here it is brought to you by Congress.
If there is a borrower bailout, think of all the subprime candidates that will have missed out on the free lunch. We need to get these people into the market now, before we lose a valuable constituency!
Help me, CR Street Irregulars!
I can't find the bill number or the text of the "Expanding Homeownership Act of 2007. The last paragraph of the press release--among other things--just made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.
Anyone out there got text of this thing? Or know when it will hit the FR?
Thanks. I can't make trouble without you.
House Financial Services Committee
There's so much out there... An Error Occurred
It looks like it was introduced last year, so this would just be a retitled version of the 2006 bill:
H.R. 5121 [109th]: Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2006
Actually, I take that back. The 2006 bill passed, so who knows what the 2007 version looks like.
Committee today introduced the Expanding Homeownership Act of 2007. ... today passed H.R. 1427
Max, you are the wind beneath my wings.
More shit to get fired up about in the 2006 version:
(3) Existing technology systems for the FHA program have not been updated to meet the latest standards of the Mortgage Industry Standards Maintenance Organization and have numerous deficiencies that lenders have outlined.
(4) Improvements to technology used in the FHA program will--
(A) allow the FHA program to improve the management of the FHA portfolio, garner greater efficiencies in its operations, and lower costs across the program;
(B) result in efficiencies and lower costs for lenders participating in the program, allowing them to better use the FHA products in extending homeownership opportunities to higher credit risk or lower-income families, in a sound manner.
(5) The Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund operates without cost to the taxpayers and generates revenues for the Federal Government.
(b) Sense of Congress- It is the sense of the Congress that--
(1) the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development should use a portion of the funds received from premiums paid for FHA single family housing mortgage insurance that are in excess of the amounts paid out in claims to substantially increase the funding for technology used in such FHA program;
(2) the goal of this investment should be to bring the technology used in such FHA program to the level and sophistication of the technology used in the conventional mortgage lending market, or to exceed such level
I have exactly no problem with bringing FHA up to MISMO standards. Any researcher out there who has struggled with comparing FHA data to conventional market data would be glad about this; trust me.
MISMO has squat to do with AUS. It's a data standard.
But does anyone else think it's a little weird to pay for this out of insurance premiums? Besides the obvious issue of taking credit-loss insurance premia to pay for overhead, what's with the idea that borrowers should pay the cost of tech that makes life easier for lenders? What about a little surcharge on FHA lenders? Where's all that rah-rah about how technological innovation passes cost savings onto consumers?
Gawd, it's 9:30 on Monday and I'm already wound up past my limits.
Federal Housing Finance Reform Act of 2007
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/speech/financialsvcs_dem/muhr1427032807.pdf
Thanks, Kevin. Remember that HUD (FHA) is not a GSE. It's a plain old government agency, not a "sponsored enterprise." So HR 1427 is the Fannie/Freddie deform--sorry, "reform"--not the FHA "reform."
I have the solution.
We exchange all the foreclosures with the Chinese even-steven for their US$ reserves.
ISM (mnf) comes in at 50.9 down from 52.3 (all comps month to month), employment subindex at 48.7 vs 51.1, new orders 51.6 vs 54.9, order backlog at 47 vs 51.5.
The bill passed the House last year but failed in the Senate. Lets hope for the same this year.
ISM (mnf) comes in at 50.9 down from 52.3 (all comps month to month), employment subindex at 48.7 vs 51.1, new orders 51.6 vs 54.9, order backlog at 47 vs 51.5.
Maufacturing is only 12% of the economy, it could fall to zero and not really matter. BUY MORE STOCKS NOW.
Contrary Investor April 2007
Market Observations
Since asking for things has worked out so well for me this morning . . .
Do any of you Real Economists have a link to a decently accessible article or blog musing or something online on the subject of reification of economic constructs?
If it's too po-mo, I warn you I won't read it. I am a recreational reader of literary criticism, so I get my RDA of that stuff from other food sources. If it's just a little po-mo I'll read it. If it's not po-mo enough it may not be what I'm looking for. But I'm not picky.
Sorry not to do my own damned research, but hell, I'm a mortgage lender. I'm here to exploit people.
TIA.
It's official, NEW just filed.
the fact that I had to look up 'reification' means I won't be able to help you, but what's po-mo?
and don't forget in that ISM report that the inflation component (prices paid subindex) shot higher -- to 65.5 in March from 59 in February. That's the highest reading since August 2006. Employment sub-index is the weakest since May 2005, when it was also 48.7. You have to go all the way back to October 2003 to find a worse reading.
Post-modernism.
It evokes a discursive mise-en-scene valorizing libidinal disruptions in the binary economy of signifier refinancing signified in order to mis/rep/re/sent stasis as stability, a mere nostalgia for always already lost innocence. In this fashion it brings capitalism to its knees. Or something. I suspect you had to have been there.
Lurker:
Good read as always: this weekend I was looking at wine property in Chile and Canada via the internet. Which became a general look into the SFH prices as well and by region.
One thing to keep in mind about the American run-up in RE is that its' global. The prices in Chile and Canada in many areas are the same in Calif or NY. The CI article mentioned the TEI bond fund which is going to be a good indicatior going forward about the availability of funds to support this global RE push up.
but prices paid is 65.5! ouch!
and don't forget in that ISM report that the inflation component (prices paid subindex) shot higher -- to 65.5 in March from 59 in February. That's the highest reading since August 2006
Don't worry... that's just all the easy money working it's way through the system.
We know from history that credit bubbles drive prices up, and as the availability of credit reverses course so do the inflationary pressures... unless the Fed responds with some other "money printing" scheme. They're running out of bubbles to create so it may have to be something more creative this time around.
In short, money is not longer a store of value. There is no need for capitalism.
The commons will be restored to the village and the peasants to their ancestral homes.
CNBC says New Century filled Ch 11
Chapter 11
New Century, Biggest Subprime Casualty, Goes Bankrupt (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
hot off the press....
Southstar is done
"It is with great regret and sadness that I must announce that SouthStar is ceasing its mortgage lending operations today, April 2, 2007. This decision was brought upon by events in the secondary markets that developed toward the end of last week. We identified two potential buyers of our company that would have allowed us to continue operating but were notified on Friday and Sunday respectively that this would not be a viable option. This leaves us no choice but to cease operations."
In short, money is not longer a store of value. There is no need for capitalism.
If credit becomes much tighter, that could increase the value of money, providing it doesn't lead to economic collapse.
The big question to determining the future value of money in the US, I believe, is the actions of the Fed and the US government. Do they systematically devalue the dollar to attempt to kick some life back into the economy?
That's the problem we've gotten ourselves into now with all the borrowing and asset bubbles - it's kind of a lose-lose scenario.
--
Bubble is moving to Australia
When did it leave? Ausies began their bubble before us.
It's all about dishonesty.
Lenders are going bankrupt.
Of course, I suppose if there were a conspiracy of unscrupulous borrowers deceiving well-meaning, naive lenders... Like Sandy Weil and Chuck Prince. Yes, this is all about unscrupulous borrowers.
What else is to be expected in a nation over-lorded by Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City?
Every single one of those bastards need to have their ass kicked with maybe the exception of Ron Paul.
I will vote for that! Although, we should also include crucifixion of some noted Bankrupters to make it more entertaining. Blood and entertainment is what people crave for when they are angry.
Committee today introduced the Expanding Homeownership Act of 2007. ... today passed H.R. 1427
That is right out of the Constitution of the United States!:
Article VIII
Congress shall make necessary laws to enable any American resident, citizen or not, legal resident or not, to become a homeowner regardless of his, or her, ability to afford the resulting debt burden.
Jas