IM - Interesting - makes sense, but I hadn't thought of that correlation until you mentioned it.
Though I love to trash the MSM as much as anybody . . . this was a very savvy article by Abby Goodnough. She even picked up on the population growth slump in Florida, which is huge, population growth being to Florida what auto production is to Michigan. A leading indicator of population growth, school enrollment, was absolutely flat in Florida last fall. First time that has happened since 1982. Recall what fun year that was - the worst recession of the post-WWII era.
It's a good thing that our politicians understood that we this surplus was abnormal and decided to responsibly set aside these gains for bleaker times.
Thanks CR! -I thought it was a fine article too Wayne -- except the part about nyc being "different" -- based the RE industry's questionable data. Memo to Abby: If even our own mayor is budgeting as if the party will be over soon, it's time to doublecheck those rose-colored RE industry stats.
the Hardtrack site that Bruce provided the other day which has 6 weeks worth listing also has some interesting side information. He also provides the census bureau median SFH price for each MSA. When you compare the two, current median price for listing in each MSA and the census Bureau medium the listed is always two to three time larger. here is the site link
Yep. We kind of saw this one coming a long time ago. I actually believe that part of the reason that the government agencies turned such a blind eye to frantic pace of the Real Estate boom was because they were liking the increase in tax revenue.
This also holds true for Corporations, since the Board of Directors earn most of their bonuses through profit sharing. Thus, they are essentially on the same side as the IRS. The more profitable they make the company look, the higher their bonuses and the more the IRS receives in taxes. Very symbiotic. This is generally why the investigations don't really begin until the company goes bust.
furniture making did not do so well as analysts expected in the housing boom because 25% of houses were bought by speculators and were never furnished.
Consumers are being pinched by increases in mortgages
Manufacturing in the area is one of the highest in the country but is losing employment
One of North Carolinas solutions is to offer incenitives to firms such as Google who will employ 250 people.
A furniture manufacture employing 500 people and doing well has adopted japanese style worker based quality groups. The owner says that instead of focusing on reducing worker costs to the level of the chinese, firms should concentrate on ensuring each component of productivity produces something that shows in the finished product.
And the cuts in the furniture biz will hurt my friend who is a furnishing rep who just helped his kids buy a house and a condo in Phoenix the last two years... and the vicious cycle continues down....
Carolina furniture has been hurting for quite some time. With that said...
"A furniture manufacture employing 500 people and doing well has adopted japanese style worker based quality groups. The owner says that instead of focusing on reducing worker costs to the level of the chinese, firms should concentrate on ensuring each component of productivity produces something that shows in the finished product."
Yes. I want furniture that will actually survive a move. Cheap furniture is made of particle board that warps in humid weather, and cannot hold a screw in place.
I don't understand why people are so cheap with furniture considering it's lifespan and usefulness. People who will spend several grand on a TV that will be obsolete in 5 years (or on a computer game system that will be obsolete in 2) look at me like I am crazy when I spend 2k on an armoire that will last me decades.
However, it is amazing how hard it is to get quality furniture these days. Even Ethan Allen uses plywood in their chairs and sofas these days. I have 40 year old Clyde Pearson (NC furniture co long out of business) chairs with solid maple frames. My parents gave them to me because they were old and stained. The guy who reupholstered them for me told me to never sell them -- I will never be able to get anything as good as them again.
I don't understand why people are so cheap with furniture considering it's lifespan and usefulness. People who will spend several grand on a TV that will be obsolete in 5 years (or on a computer game system that will be obsolete in 2) look at me like I am crazy when I spend 2k on an armoire that will last me decades.
/////////////////////////////////
Real estate has location location location........in recent years
furniture has gone the route of the fashion industry...style....style ...style
Go to IKEA...people..esp the young redo their homes quite often...I am 55
and I do the same to by condo (incidently all paid up ;>) )...
It's a good thing that our politicians understood that we this surplus was abnormal and decided to responsibly set aside these gains for bleaker times.
Damn, another CR keyboard gone. This time a nice Fetzer Chardonay that was lubricating the cook (me).
The biggest leading indicator to me was D.C. last week where near everything was under construction, consideration or refurbishment. These are always peak plus 6 months indicators. The amount of activity tells me that this is a big one.
Does this count as "spillover into the general economy"? Will the MSM see it as such?
OT: So I wonder if we got artifically inflated economic data for March:
Gasoline use up 2.8% since early time change
Seems like this would throw off all the seasonal adjustments.
Yups, reduced tax revenues is a leading indicator of recession by two quarters!
IM - Interesting - makes sense, but I hadn't thought of that correlation until you mentioned it.
Though I love to trash the MSM as much as anybody . . . this was a very savvy article by Abby Goodnough. She even picked up on the population growth slump in Florida, which is huge, population growth being to Florida what auto production is to Michigan. A leading indicator of population growth, school enrollment, was absolutely flat in Florida last fall. First time that has happened since 1982. Recall what fun year that was - the worst recession of the post-WWII era.
--
Tax revenues plumeted after the tech bubble burst and the same should happen after the Housing Bubble burst.
CA was the worst hit in 2001-02 and the same is in store for 2007-09.
Jas
It's a good thing that our politicians understood that we this surplus was abnormal and decided to responsibly set aside these gains for bleaker times.
CR,
Can you post any of your wonderful historical charts showing tax revenues -- property, income, retail sales -- thru past economic downturns??
Thanks CR! -I thought it was a fine article too Wayne -- except the part about nyc being "different" -- based the RE industry's questionable data. Memo to Abby: If even our own mayor is budgeting as if the party will be over soon, it's time to doublecheck those rose-colored RE industry stats.
the Hardtrack site that Bruce provided the other day which has 6 weeks worth listing also has some interesting side information. He also provides the census bureau median SFH price for each MSA. When you compare the two, current median price for listing in each MSA and the census Bureau medium the listed is always two to three time larger. here is the site link
http://hardtack.osgcorp.com/osg-hardtack/index.jsp
Yep. We kind of saw this one coming a long time ago. I actually believe that part of the reason that the government agencies turned such a blind eye to frantic pace of the Real Estate boom was because they were liking the increase in tax revenue.
This also holds true for Corporations, since the Board of Directors earn most of their bonuses through profit sharing. Thus, they are essentially on the same side as the IRS. The more profitable they make the company look, the higher their bonuses and the more the IRS receives in taxes. Very symbiotic. This is generally why the investigations don't really begin until the company goes bust.
Spillover into North Carolina's high-end furniture biz -which NPR reports is hurting due to consumer housing/credit card debt:
N. Carolina Fights to Save Furniture Business : NPR
Interesting audio there.
Some points from it:
furniture making did not do so well as analysts expected in the housing boom because 25% of houses were bought by speculators and were never furnished.
Consumers are being pinched by increases in mortgages
Manufacturing in the area is one of the highest in the country but is losing employment
One of North Carolinas solutions is to offer incenitives to firms such as Google who will employ 250 people.
A furniture manufacture employing 500 people and doing well has adopted japanese style worker based quality groups. The owner says that instead of focusing on reducing worker costs to the level of the chinese, firms should concentrate on ensuring each component of productivity produces something that shows in the finished product.
And the cuts in the furniture biz will hurt my friend who is a furnishing rep who just helped his kids buy a house and a condo in Phoenix the last two years... and the vicious cycle continues down....
Carolina furniture has been hurting for quite some time. With that said...
"A furniture manufacture employing 500 people and doing well has adopted japanese style worker based quality groups. The owner says that instead of focusing on reducing worker costs to the level of the chinese, firms should concentrate on ensuring each component of productivity produces something that shows in the finished product."
Yes. I want furniture that will actually survive a move. Cheap furniture is made of particle board that warps in humid weather, and cannot hold a screw in place.
I don't understand why people are so cheap with furniture considering it's lifespan and usefulness. People who will spend several grand on a TV that will be obsolete in 5 years (or on a computer game system that will be obsolete in 2) look at me like I am crazy when I spend 2k on an armoire that will last me decades.
However, it is amazing how hard it is to get quality furniture these days. Even Ethan Allen uses plywood in their chairs and sofas these days. I have 40 year old Clyde Pearson (NC furniture co long out of business) chairs with solid maple frames. My parents gave them to me because they were old and stained. The guy who reupholstered them for me told me to never sell them -- I will never be able to get anything as good as them again.
I don't understand why people are so cheap with furniture considering it's lifespan and usefulness. People who will spend several grand on a TV that will be obsolete in 5 years (or on a computer game system that will be obsolete in 2) look at me like I am crazy when I spend 2k on an armoire that will last me decades.
/////////////////////////////////
Real estate has location location location........in recent years
furniture has gone the route of the fashion industry...style....style ...style
Go to IKEA...people..esp the young redo their homes quite often...I am 55
and I do the same to by condo (incidently all paid up ;>) )...
Paarl of Rhodesia
It's a good thing that our politicians understood that we this surplus was abnormal and decided to responsibly set aside these gains for bleaker times.
Damn, another CR keyboard gone. This time a nice Fetzer Chardonay that was lubricating the cook (me).
The biggest leading indicator to me was D.C. last week where near everything was under construction, consideration or refurbishment. These are always peak plus 6 months indicators. The amount of activity tells me that this is a big one.
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