Tanta,
1) Is the story [URL listed below] of a foreclosure foulup an example of "a secondary mortgage note that got resold too many times that nobody knows who owns the note????". [Very strange since I thought that the mortgage servicer should know who should receive the mortgage payments after it deducts its servicing fee].
2) Is that what is suggested by some of the thread responders "winning the American Dream Lottery" -- since the foreclosing lawyer can't prove to the court who owns that mortgage note, that the homeowner is being illegally foreclosed upon AND also does not have to pay that secondary mortgage anymore???? Are the responders just being facetious?
Thanks Tanta...very illuminating as usual, and follows up on my earlier mistaken notion about lenders profiting at borrowers expense. Another question Im hoping you can expound upon at some point is the relationship between foreclosure and bankruptcy for a homeowner. I read an article somewhere yesterday that said someone was trying to stave off foreclosure by filing for bankruptcy. I didnt know this was possible, or how the two relate in general, but am quite interested. Perhaps certain states have different laws where there are ways to use bankruptcy (perhaps Florida) where you can keep your house...anyway, if you could shine some light on this in general, Id be much obliged.
OT, but uh... interesting... From a Borkers Outpost thread. This could keep the party going. Seems a new form of renting is being formulated...
... so for today, 10 year Interest Only with a 30 Year Fixed rate is most common option. However, I was talking with a friend of mine (rumor alert!) who works for a large buyer of mortgage paper and she tells me that 20 and 30 year interest only balloon products are being discussed and we could see them before the end of 2007.
We have a new client that is requiring a prior 3 month retrospective market analysis, a prospective 3 month market forecast and a current value for typical residential mortgages.
Folks ... this is a rarity and is possibly a sign of things to come.
This should be interesting; as most appraisers could not forcast when a stop light will turn green next, even after studying it for hours.
OT ... Tanta ... can you give examples of the main reason for buy backs? Are there other reasons above and beyond EPD? Can there be issues revolving around the appraisal?
My Dept co-workers have been floating some conspiracy theories tied to Fannie Mae. There is verbiage on their forms that severly restrict the addition or modification of their pre-printed certifications and assumptions and limiting conditions:
"This appraisal report is subject to the following scope of work, intended use, intended user, definition of market value,
statement of assumptions and limiting conditions, and certifications. Modifications, additions, or deletions to the intended use, intended user, definition of market value, or assumptions and limiting conditions are not permitted. The appraiser may
expand the scope of work to include any additional research or analysis necessary based on the complexity of this appraisal assignment. Modifications or deletions to the certifications are also not permitted. However, additional certifications that do not constitute material alterations to this appraisal report, such as those required by law or those related to the appraisers continuing education or membership in an appraisal organization, are permitted."
I can say that a very high percentage of appraisals I see do have some type of modification and/or additional assumption(s).
If it 'got thick' for Fannie Mae, could they use this as a basis for a buy back to insulate their losses?
Very detailed answer to my questions. Thanks. That is very clear .
It is intersteing to see if more lenders will go the judicial route in cases where they know the sale of the property will be less than the amount owed.
FoolMe, you'd be surprised at what servicers do and do not know at times. Anyone please feel free to correct me anywhere necessary. Im far from an expert on any of this. Basically, the chain of title is broken, according to the account given in the referenced thread. The first problem is that, regardless of the status of the chain, a third party servicer holds absolutely no title or interest in a note and therefore can be usually be challenged as to their authority to foreclose - not necessarily successfully but still an argument worth making when facing foreclosure. MERS is currently beating off attacks along these lines across the country. MERS is filing foreclosure actions left and right without any actual title or interest in the properties. MERS is also an excellent "cloaking device" for actual owners of notes. Additionally, county registries are losing money hand over fist because they have allowed MERS into the system. Nationally, registries must be losing millions in recordation fees to MERS because notes can be recorded in the name of MERS once and then assigned/sold/transferred as many times as possible without additional recordation fees paid to the county in which the loan is recorded.
Case law exists that if there is no original note then there can be nothing to enforce. Probably the inspiration for the reference to the "American Dream Lottery".
Part of the problem with regard to "chain of title" issues is that there is apparently no penalty anywhere in the country as to specific time limits to file deeds or assignments or other documents with county registries of deeds.
In my own case, it was literally more than two years between the recordation of the original note created by Superior Bank (March 2001) and the subsequent sales of the note to Merrill Lynch Mortgage Capital (March 2001) and later Merrill Lynch Mortgage Investors (March 2003). And both of those sales were recorded on the same day (Dec 19, 2003) - despite the two transactions taking place more than two years apart themselves - and only ten days before I was served with a Notice to Foreclose on my home (Dec 23, 2003). A professional title search that I had performed only showed Superior Bank as the note holder as of May 2003 as well.
Why the 2nd note holder was attempting foreclosure I'm not sure as junior loans are not usually afforded that option. Likewise, the homeowner would still have to deal with that junior note.
Something else to consider - simply obtaining a "certified copy" of the recorded note from the county registry isn't necessarily a reliable option either. Again, in my own case, what was recorded at my county registry is not everything that I actually signed at the closing table. Various addenda to which I agreed with my signature were never recorded. Hence, the note recorded is incomplete. Which is why I have insisted on seeing the actual note from Day 1 of beginning my current legal battle against Fairbanks/SPS, Merrill, e
In fact, I'm not sure if it was here or elsewhere that I read of an exercise in property ownership fraud. A news reporter demonstrated just how simple it is to "steal" anyone's home simply by creating and filing authentic looking documents pertaining to the sale of any given property. This was demonstrated by the reporter recording documents attesting to the sale of a governor's home, a mayor's home and the home of another county official to the reporter - ownership of all three properties conveyed to the reported for $1.00.
While it may be true that lenders do not want to foreclose on properties the same simply cannot be said for third party mortgage servicers. In fact, the longer a servicer can drag out a default situation that ultimately leads to foreclosure, the more money the servicer makes - depending on how the Pooling and Servicing Agreement between the note holder and the servicer is worded. And once the property is foreclosed upon and resold into the market, the property has then been successfully "laundered" and off of everyone's books. If there is no "redemption period" involved then the trail is officially wiped clean and it's on to the next property.
At one point I was able to track the potential for quadruple dipping on my own loan when all of the insurance policies invovled were taken into account. No one loses money anywhere on foreclosures - at least not the ones that have been securitized and led off to Wall Street for slaughter.
I have a few questions for you. For now I will just ask one:
Question: There are implicit protections afforded a borrower who is buying a property through a purchase money loan. The most important, as you know, is that in a foreclosure the lender may not seek a deficiency judgement against the borrower. However, those protections are lost for any second liens, or if the original purchase money loan was refinanced.
Many other blogs were mentioning that the lender often would 1099 the borrower for "debt forgiveness" in the case of a short sale. Is this allowed in the case of a purchase money loan?
What are the options of the junior lien holder? Can they 1099?
Thanks for taking the time to reply in the midst of your own mortgage foreclosure nightmare. From your website, I see that you are one of the victims of the Fairbanks debacle and your 4+ year mortgage nightmare is still ongoing.
I've learned alot from Tanta's uberpostings and the blog discussions, but the learning is mostly stressfree [since I'm educating myself as much as I can before buying a home], unlike you who had to learn about mortgages, servicing, foreclosure [especially the SLEAZY aspect of these matters] under the sword of impending foreclosure hanging over you.
Since you mentioned the simplicity of "stealing" anyone's home simply by creating and filing authentic looking documents pertaining to the sale of any given property -- I thought Title Insurance was supposed to prevent the sale of such "stolen" property -- Verifying proper title would catch this scam, no????
Geoff- Chapter 13 Bankruptcy gives a qualifying debtor a chance to keep his home by paying off his mortgage arrears over 3 to 5 years while making his regular mortgage payments on time.
A Chapter 7 Bankruptcy can delay the foreclosure process until the lender gets bankruptcy court permission to proceed.
Two years ago, the (few) people in Los Angeles facing an imminent foreclosure almost always filed Chapter 13- people were desperate to keep their homes.
Now so many people facing foreclosure are doing Chapter 7 and giving up the homes. They can't even afford their teaser rates; agreeing to pay their regular mortgage payments plus arrears over the next 3-5 years is not realistic for so many recent borrowers.
It seems like I have many more clients filing because they can't pay their teaser rates than I have clients hit with payment resets. Many of my clients were already maxed out at the time they purchased their homes in 2005/2006.
1) So when we see REO listings (like the many with CFC) these include homes for which CFC was lender of record and now owns, as well as homes for which CFC holds the MSRs?
2) It seems NAR includes only listed proerties in their EHS survey. So foreclosures only show up in the EHS figures to the extent they are subsequently listed and sold?
As investors and market strategists sift through every new economic tea leaf for clues about the health of the U.S. economy, I am reminded of a group of railroad engineers discussing the structural qualities of the track bed while an overloaded fright train careens around a sharp turn. For those not lost in the inconsequential minutia, a severe recession is an outright certainty, regardless of what current statistics might indicate on a day-to-day basis.
Since the bursting of the dot.com bubble, the U.S. economy has been fueled by an enormous consumer spending spree. This largess has been artificially propped up by the largest real estate bubble in U.S. history. In fact, housing has acted as a three-legged stool upon which American consumers have been precariously perched. Those legs are: 1) home equity extractions; 2) adjustable rate mortgages; 3) the wealth effect.
First, rising real estate prices allowed Americans to routinely borrow against home equity and repeatedly refinance loans of any stripe (be they mortgage, credit card or automobile) at lower rates. If the home equity was turned into cash, or used to pay off other debts, the result was additional spending beyond what consumers could have afforded based solely on their incomes.
Second, adjustable rate mortgages, especially the "negative amortization" or the "interest only" varieties, allowed Americans to enjoy temporarily low mortgage payments despite accumulating bigger mortgages. The difference between those temporarily low rates and the normal rates, to which these loans would ultimately reset, was available to be spent by homeowners.
Third, as real estate prices rose, homeowners felt wealthier, which has been shown to be a stimulant to spending. In addition, the pervasive belief that home prices would continue to rise indefinitely led many Americans to make false assumptions regarding their financial circumstances and their need to save to meet future obligations and retirement goals. As a result, money that would have typically been applied to savings was spent.
These three factors combined to encourage consumer spending on an unprecedented scale relative to incomes, and allowed debt to rise to levels that would have been impossible had mortgage payments been fully amortized and real estate prices remained at historically reasonable levels. Of course, many economists confused this spending binge with legitimate economic growth, just as they confused rising home prices with increased savings. However, as with the dot.com bubble, the truth only becomes apparent to the inebriated when the punch bowl runs dry.
Now that ARMs are being reset to market rates, home prices are falling, and the wealth effect is working in reverse, consumers will be forced to atone for a prolonged period of conspicuous consumption by enduring an even longer one of frugality. Excess spending
Now that ARMs are being reset to market rates, home prices are falling, and the wealth effect is working in reverse, consumers will be forced to atone for a prolonged period of conspicuous consumption by enduring an even longer one of frugality. Excess spending will be replaced by excess savings. On the mortgage front, higher payments on ARMs mean less money available for discretionary spending. On the cash-out side, lower real estate prices mean houses will no longer act like ATM machines. Finally, as homeowners have to adjust their financial expectations to the new reality, saving will have to become the new national pastime, as millions of homeowners desperately try to make up for lost time.
However, it is important to point out that as a collapse in consumer spending ushers in a recession, the Fed will not have the luxury of lowering interest rates to cushion the fall. Despite surging unemployment, inflation will only accelerate, as extreme dollar weakness abroad translates into higher consumer prices at home. In addition, long-term interest rates will be headed higher as well, as foreign savers look to be compensated for this loss of purchasing power. Higher interest rates and substantial increases in the cost of living will only exacerbate the housing downturn and the recession, turning what would normally have been simply a severe recession into something far worse.
Although this may sound like a sobering scenario, it is definitely not the worst case. The real doomsday would only come as a result of Fed-created hyper-inflation which could be used to pump up all varieties of falling asset prices. Lets hope the boys at the Fed decide not to go there.
I hate it when people are more pesmistic than me. Makes me feel too normal.
Hyper inflation may or may not be coming. High inflation requires labor costs to rise a lot. Something, for the most part, not available to US workers. Failing rising wages, hyper inflation cannot happen.
So as foreign prices rise, folks cannot pay for it, having exhausted both the home ATM and Credit card options, because wages cannot rise fast enough. Demand drops here and abroad with the result of a recession and deflation.
Please help me get this straight-the loan servicing company has no right to file foreclosure- is that correct? If so, why am I seeing Wells Fargo on so many notices listed as the plaintiff when the say they do not own many?
FoolMeOnce: Full disclosure: I haven't had a "customer service" job since I was in college (you want fries with that?). I have, however, been the only one at her desk on some evil day when the receptionist has some furious borrower on the phone and all my fellow VPs in the servicing side were out hiding behind the loading dock smokin' a doobie (or at lunch, I forget the story). The only reason I have ever accepted such calls is that I know what happens when the receptionist quits without notice.
So I have spoken to "Kathy." I have also asked my computer to reboot faster. I once asked God to make numbers divisible by zero.
And here we are.
The note is a promise to pay. When someone purchases a loan in the secondary market, that person is always buying at least the note. (I call that buying "the asset.") This is effected by the originator of the loan endorsing the note. Just like you endorse a check: the note gets stamped on the back with "pay to the order of" and an officer of the originating lender signs it. If it gets sold again, it gets endorsed again. When loans are securitized, they are often endorsed "in blank." This makes sense if you think about it: the party with the right to receive payments is the ultimate buyer of the MBS. I can't endorse a note to Bob and Carol and Ted and Alice. I endorse it in blank, deliver it to the custodian of the security sponsor, and that party (a bank with a trust department, usually; the GSEs are also often their own custodians) holds that note on behalf of the bondholder. Should there ever be a default, that note endorsement can be completed (filled in) in favor of the investor or its nominee in order to achieve standing in court to sue somebody or foreclose or what have you.
"Kathy," of course, has hung up by now. But this is CR, and the Nerds are still with me, right?
The mortgage (DOT) is a separate document, but it refers to the note ("of even date herewith"). A mortgage is not endorsed; it is "assigned." I assign my security interest (my lien on your property) to another party, meaning the party who has the right to receive the loan payments. I do this by recording the assignment in the land records of the county where the mortgage is filed, so that anyone searching public records can see who owns the lien. (These days, that is often accomplished by recording the assignment to an outfit called MERS, which is an electronic database that acts as "nominee" for the owner of the security interest. This is one of those "technological innovations" that everybody likes until it pisses them off.) In any case, I could assign the security interest to the party who bought the note, or I could assign it to the servicer nominated by the investor. Bob and Carol and Ted and Alice don't want to have to file motions in court to foreclose on a property; they're just coupon-clippers. If the security interest is assigned to the servicer as nominee for the note-holder, the servicer can act on the note-holder's behalf.
It therefore makes approximately jack shit difference to an individual borrower who owns the note. You are obligated to pay the money to the party indicated in your note, unless that party sends you notice (the note says this) that you should send the money to someone else. You then send your money there. It makes no legal difference whether you are sending your money to a servicer on behalf of an investor or to a servicer who is also the investor. That would be the investor's problem. And anyone who can bring evidence of assignment of mortgage in its favor, not superceded by any subsequent assignment, can sue your ass in court or foreclose on you. That party does not have to own the note.
By this point, I am always wishing I was out behind the loading dock smokin' a doobie.
If it 'got thick' for Fannie Mae, could they use this as a basis for a buy back to insulate their losses?
Yesiree Bob.
I could do a post about "typical" repurchase issues. For now, just remember that a loan sale contract always involves the seller of the loans making a bunch of representations about them to the buyer. The contract also says that if any of those representations turn out to be untrue, the seller must take the loan back if the buyer demands it.
Sometimes the loan sale agreements are great huge 50-page documents listing a jillion specific reps. Sometimes they're shorter, because they say things like "the mortgage loan complies with all the terms, conditions and requirements of [The Guidelines] in effect at the time of origination of such mortgage loan." (I just copied that sentence out of a contract that happens to be in my file drawer.) You can put anything the parties agree to in the brackets. Very often, people put things like "Fannie Mae's Selling Guide and Servicing Guide" in those brackets. If so, then any loan is repped and warranted to meet every last little nit-picky rule in those hundreds of pages publised by Fannie Mae. Which would include appraisers getting "creative" on the assumptions used in the appraisal.
Question: There are implicit protections afforded a borrower who is buying a property through a purchase money loan. The most important, as you know, is that in a foreclosure the lender may not seek a deficiency judgement against the borrower. However, those protections are lost for any second liens, or if the original purchase money loan was refinanced.
Many other blogs were mentioning that the lender often would 1099 the borrower for "debt forgiveness" in the case of a short sale. Is this allowed in the case of a purchase money loan?
What are the options of the junior lien holder? Can they 1099?
Nick, the purchase money rule you're referring to is a California law. I don't know off the top of my head how many other states might have such an exclusion, but my memory is not very many. You must always beware of people making sweeping claims about how FCs work when they don't specify the state they're talking about. I won't suggest that Californians tend to see themselves as the center of the universe, but, well . . .
As far as I know, any lender who forgives debt is required to send a 1099. That is not a matter of state foreclosure law; that is a matter of federal tax law. We should probably get dryfly to ask his sister . . .
I thought Title Insurance was supposed to prevent the sale of such "stolen" property -- Verifying proper title would catch this scam, no????
Words to take to heart when some fast-talking broker offers you a "low cost" refi without all those terrible expenses that those other evil lenders charge, like title search . . .
1) So when we see REO listings (like the many with CFC) these include homes for which CFC was lender of record and now owns, as well as homes for which CFC holds the MSRs?
You can never assume that the party offering the REO for sale is the party who made the loan or owns the note; it could just be the servicer who is selling the REO on behalf of the investor, who will get paid off out of the proceeds.
I seem to recall that CFC does report those things separately in its financial statements (true REO and serviced or subserviced REO).
In regards to these notes that have changed hands, get sold to investors, etc., who ends up with the REO? Someone who packaged the bonds, like JP Morgan?
In regards to the 1099 on debt forgiveness, I read that there are several outs to having to declare it as income. One was just that you have more debts than assets. I would think that would cover about 95% of the people who find themselves in this situation, so I think this is a much smaller deal than some are making it out to be. But getting a 1099 for $30,000 you didn't expect must cause a certain amount of anxiety in the short term...
Bob, the owner of the real estate is the party who took title at the auction. The confusion reigns because we forget that these things can happen directly (by the party of the first part) or by nominee (by the party of the nth part on behalf of the party of the first part).
So, say CFC makes a bid at a foreclosure sale and wins. That could mean:
CFC now owns real estate, because the loan foreclosed was originated by CFC and never sold.
CFC now owns real estate, because the loan foreclosed was originated by someone else but purchased by CFC for its investment portfolio.
An MBS now owns real estate, because the loan foreclosed was owned by that security, and CFC is the servicer for the security.
Your pension fund now owns real estate, because the loan foreclosed was owned by your pension fund, and CFC is the servicer.
And so on. An investment bank doesn't own anything unless it has an ownership interest in the security.
The GSEs are different because GSE MBS are guaranteed. Fannie will buy a defaulted loan out of the MBS (so the investor gets principal back), and then the servicer will foreclose on Fannie's behalf. If you happened to have a private issue security in which an investment bank offered such a guarantee--that'd be news to me, frankly--the same situation would apply.
Now, if you had to foreclose on a loan that was so new it was still secured by a lien owned by a warehouse lender? Help me, Rhonda. The system isn't set up to make sense of things like that: remember that "normal" mortgage markets do not experience EPD epidemics. So in that case the warehouse lender (could be an IB) would have to get the endorsement and file the assignment (in favor of its servicer) and then be the party of the first part. Send guns and money to the lawyers.
Anyway, this is what we mean when we say that a foreclosure "returns principal to the investor." Until such time as the REO is sold, the security holds RE assets (which used to be loan assets). When the sale takes place, the proceeds net of expenses become principal and are paid to whoever owns a principal tranche.
Would anyone have any idea as to why it would be beneficial fro a third party servicer to appear on an assignment recorded at the registry months or years before they actually had legal right to service the loan?
Ex. - Litton legally obtains servicing rights to Loan X on August 1, 2000. The hello/goodbye confirms this and up until this time the borrower has been making monthly payments to BoA without incident. But when the assignment is pulled up at the county registry it shows that Litton began servicing the loan February of 2000 or even March of 1999.
What would be the benefit to Litton in such an instance? Tax purposes? Inflating the books for better Fitch ratings?
Cartman, I cannot answer your question because I do not understand the terms you use.
Legally, the date of "transfer of servicing" is not identical to the date any assigment of mortgage is recorded. In fact, there is no such necessary relationship between the two. Any party can service a loan without an assignment recorded in its favor. The only thing it generally cannot do without a recorded assignment is foreclose. But it can certainly collect payments without an assignment. An investor can, if it wants to, require that the mortgage be assigned to it, rather than to its servicer. It makes a little more work for the investor should foreclosure be necessary--since it means the investor must be party to the FC directly--but there's no law against it.
There are also "master servicers" and "subservicers." It is certainly possible that Litton became the master servicer in 1999 or early 2000, but BoA sub-serviced the loan for Litton until 8/00.
In most cases, an assignment is recorded after a servicing transfer. Sometimes it isn't recorded at all; it is prepared in "recordable form" and kept by the servicer, to be recorded if and only if foreclosure becomes necessary.
It isn't usual to find someone recording an assignment prior to transfer of servicing, but it can happen. Your example would make more sense to me if you told me who assigned this mortgage to Litton in 2/00 or 3/99. Why would there be two assignments to Litton?
You are aware that assignments are never removed from the public record? They are merely superceded by new assignments?
It's possible that, if BoA were the original lender, it recorded an assignment in to Litton in error in 2/00. In order to fix that, Litton would have to record an assignment back to BoA. Then BoA could re-assign to Litton correctly. In other words, there could be 50 different assignments recorded in the land records. You follow the chain to the most recent to see who has the legal lien at the moment. My point is that every assignment has an assignor and an assignee. I don't think anyone could tell you what is happening here without that information.
There are no tax advantages to recording an assignment, and it has no effect on your accounting or your rating.
Vader writes:
"High inflation requires labor costs to rise a lot. Something, for the most part, not available to US workers. Failing rising wages, hyper inflation cannot happen."
"So as foreign prices rise, folks cannot pay for it, having exhausted both the home ATM and Credit card options, because wages cannot rise fast enough. Demand drops here and abroad with the result of a recession and deflation."
It seems that one can make the arguement (a la the chicken or the egg) that increased prices cause increase wage pressure. If prices go up, workers need more money and demand higher wages."
Further, he precludes wage pressure as "Something, for the most part, not available to US workers." I assume he means off-shore competition. However, there is a political dimension to wages. I highly militarized work force resulting from decreasing standard of living is not something that the FED or congress would want to see - I should think. They could then increase the money supply to meet wage demands.
"3. An MBS now owns real estate, because the loan foreclosed was owned by that security, and CFC is the servicer for the security."
Tanta,
Thank you. But just so I understand #3, is this correct?
CFC made the bid on behalf of the MBS
And now this MBS itself has property on it's books.
Does it shows up in CFC's list of REO?
I would think just the paperwork involved in one or two properties being bought by the MBS would really hit the margins, I mean beyond the whatever loss they have on the property itself.
If CFC voluntarily publishes a list of REO, it could include only its own "true" REO, or all REO it handles, including what it handles as servicer on someone else's behalf. I presume it would say so.
What it shows in its financial statements would have to be clearly distinguished as its own REO versus investor REO, since the latter is not its own asset.
My own rule of thumb--actual mileage may vary in different states and with different borrower situations, like BK--is that FC & REO management expenses run an average of 15% of the loan balance. Plus there's accrued but unpaid interest. So if you FC a 100% loan, you've already lost 20% even if you can get the original sales price for it. ("You" here are probably a mortgage insurer, remember, or a second lien holder.)
At one point in our lives, we lenders knew that.
Hope the Bunny came through for you. Being the cheapskate I am, I buy my Easter M&Ms tomorrow at half off, so I won't be in a chocolate-induced altered state of consciousness until later in the week.
(5) the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale.
Happy Easter everyone and thanks Tanta for an informative post. You all should know that Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) correctly forecast each of the past three U.S. recessions months ahead of time. Here is an interview with ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan in which he also discusses the outlook for home prices:
Can someone please tell me what he says? For some reason I can't watch these Bloomberg TV interviews with Safari because it makes Safari crash (maybe I should download IE or some other browser?) TIA.
Actually, David, there's a footnote to that I left out for length reasons, but you might be interested:
*Adjustments to the comparables must be made for special or creative financing or sales concessions. No adjustments are necessary for those costs which are normally paid by sellers as a result of tradition or law in a market area; these costs are readily identifiable since the seller pays these costs in virtually all sales transactions. Special or creative financing adjustments can be made to the comparable property by comparisons to financing terms offered by a third-party institutional lender that is not already involved in the property or transaction. Any adjustment should not be calculated on a mechanical dollar for dollar cost of the financing or concession but the dollar amount of any adjustment should approximate the market's reaction to the financing or concessions based on the appraiser's judgment.
I would bet you the entire contents of my Easter basket that a whole bunch of loans for new construction, in particular, are being or will be repurchased because someone didn't tell the appraiser about the sales concessions, or the appraiser knew but didn't honestly adjust value for it. There are going to turn out to be some incredibly expensive free granite countertops.
BTW, happy Easter everyone. I hope your egg hunts went well...
Mine's been great so far... the wife took the youngest up to visit the in-laws (they are house sitting & the places in cramped so the oldest & I got a pass - yippeee)...
So I'm into my easter basket now... halfway through the Bohemian Pilsner 'eggs'... might dig into a Porter later. or just some Port. Choices, choices.
When they call them 'high holy days'... might as well take it literally.
Sorry, Yal, but I told you people a while ago that I thought AHM smelled funny, and mostly what I got back was eye-rolling. (I can see you all do that in Haloscan, you know. I don't need the triple-witching hour to witch.) So you go ahead and make the AHM predictions for a change.
I'm on to my new bad-vibes candidate for Very Bad Mortgage Day. If I were sober I might even tell you about it . . .
Anything can happen, the question is what is most likely: Germany circa 1930s or Japan circa 1990s or US circa 1930s.
The one thing we know is that the Japanese government attempted to re inflate without success. In a depression, deflation happens, not due to a lack of money, but a lack of velocity of money. An infinite supply of money may exist, but unless demand for labour exists, it simply does not matter.
If someone needs labour and has a lot of money and offshore is a lot cheaper than native, then offshore will trump. Now you may argue if you depreciate the US $ to the point it will change,but the magnitude of the change is immense. The last I checked, China wages is 2.1 percent of US wages so a 50x drop in $ is needed. Not to mention that India is even cheaper than China.
In inflationary times, labor costs will always attempt go up. This 1) may be a secondary effect, as workers attempt to make up for the shrinking value of their money. Or 2) it may be the primary effect if there is a labor shortage.
As far as I can tell, there is no overall labor shortage in our economy, save perhaps in some specialized areas. So the cause of inflation will be an increase in the cost of goods due to increases in costs for energy and raw materials, or a weak dollar that buys less.
If the dollar weakens significantly, I expect inflation in the U.S. in at least the short and medium term. Imported products and energy will cost more and then, as a feedback effect, demand for higher domestic wages will also grow.
If the Fed then steps in to increase money supply (as in a stagflation scenario), that'll just make things worse. A lot worse.
Tanta said...
"I would bet you the entire contents of my Easter basket that a whole bunch of loans for new construction, in particular, are being or will be repurchased because someone didn't tell the appraiser about the sales concessions, or the appraiser knew but didn't honestly adjust value for it."
About 2 months ago we got a bulk of 50-60 appraisals for sales of new construction in the Pheonix area.
We're talking sales with huge concessions from the builders ($25k up to about $100k if memory serves me correctly - all cash back too).
All the appraisals values met the sales prices with little or no dicussion of the large concessions.
We then order retrospective drive by appraisals on the properties as an audit condition of the client (we also sent the 1st pg of the orig appraisal - so the next appraiser would have access to the contract info). We then also gave special instruction to pay particular attention to contract info and potential unusual concessions on the sales.
Wouldn't you know it ... the vast majority came back with very similar values with 'glossy' comments discussing the concessions being typical for the neighborhood and not affecting overall market values and/or prices.
Wadda ya gonna do ??? I don't know if all these closed and got funded ... but if I was a bettin' man ... I'd say ya!
I may go on a rant later about 'concessions' ... If I don't crash from all the sugary candy ... Oh How I Gotta Have The PEEPS!
I'm not so much interested in AHM, but in whether people will connect what that has happened to AHM to DSL, FHn, CFC, WM, FED (First Fed) etc. What I don't understand is how the enconomy can be doing fine while regional and community banks seem to be deteriorating so quickly.
Looking at the 191 or so industry sectors tracked by IBD, Midwestern and Northeastern banks are near the bottom and the South and West are not going great. At some point, problems in the financial sector must effect the larger outlook, I would think. Many of the community banks that were doing well through the first three quarters of last year, got hit during the fourth quarter. From what we are hearing, the situation for banks is getting worse, even though the yield curve is not as bad.
What this site does is to aggregate the various stock chat message forums into one site. I would enter the ticker AHM but this site doesn't support Safari so I will have to download either IE or firefox first.
I hadn't been thinking about the free kitchen upgrades and the like, I was thinking of the creative loan products. An Interest Only or a Neg Amortization is pretty bloody creative. Shouldn't these have required some adjustment to the price of the property?
So what if there's a bubble or drought market?
(i.e. what is "typical"? Is it typical considering the past few weeks or typical considering the past few decades?)
Tanta: "I would bet you the entire contents of my Easter basket that a whole bunch of loans for new construction, in particular, are being or will be repurchased because someone didn't tell the appraiser about the sales concessions, or the appraiser knew but didn't honestly adjust value for it."
I read this as investors can turn back an individual loan because failure to adjust for concessions is a reps & warrents violation.
1) So, wouldn't you think investors would be going one-by-one through their defaults and passing these back to the originator. Obviously this has happened to Freemont and others in sub-prime, but based on Admin Reviewer's previous note, this is obviously more than a sub-prime issue.
And from Admin Reviwer's note this seems pretty easily detected. So wouldn't it pay the investor to have someone go through their bad loan portfoolio and send back all those with the free granite countertops?
This post loan DD could be a growth industry.
2) I'm on to my new bad-vibes candidate for Very Bad Mortgage Day. If I were sober I might even tell you about it . . .
Just like with your popsicle green-mini Tanta talk which got me all lathered up.
So I'm dying already, come on and show us a little leg.
Anyone interested in the possibility that the GSE's might be attacked soon by irresponsible elements in the ultra-liberal Democrat party should read the following. It is all too evident what the agenda of those trying to bring down the Justice Department (and soon the GSE's I fear) is.
What are we going to do with you babe? Were discussing foreclosures and you out in right field picking daisies. Take another Soma and check back with us in a week or so.
So what if there's a bubble or drought market?
(i.e. what is "typical"? Is it typical considering the past few weeks or typical considering the past few decades?)
Hey! Don't ask me. I still haven't gotten over the requirement that buyers and sellers are supposed to be rational and informed. You'd need a Real Economist to explain that.
So wouldn't it pay the investor to have someone go through their bad loan portfoolio and send back all those with the free granite countertops?
Somebody is paying my comrades-in-arms at Clayton to do that as we speak.
As I understand it, in 1929 things came undone quickly because margin calls were triggered when stocks started to swoon.
There's no such thing as a margin call in real estate. If you can make the payments on your mortgage or get forgiveness or forbearance or whatever, it doesn't matter if your LTV exceeds 100%. Or 200% for that matter.
But it starts to matter during foreclosure. In fact, foreclosure is the next best thing to a margin call (insofar as margin calls forced the sale of stock) that real estate has to offer.
Significance? Well, the players in the financial community, bulls and bears alike, are used to "stock time". "Real estate time" is much slower.
I realize this is beginning to sound like a bear case. I assure you it isn't. It is a thinly disguised bull case. Sparta!
Yal, this is how it's supposed to work in the "textbook" case:
Property A and B are basically identical, except that A has the fancy kitchen upgrade and B has the plain old standard kitchen.
A was recently sold for $300K. B is under contract for $290K. The appraiser wishes to use A as a "comparable" sale to support the value of B.
If the appraiser concludes that the "market reaction" to a fancy kitchen is plausibly $10K, he "adjusts" the price of A by ($10K) to bring it in line with the subject property B. Now they are the "same price," and so he concludes that A supports the value of $290K for B.
What he does not do is say the value of B is $300K, because the house next door sold for that. He accounts for these differences.
Now take a situation in which C, with the fancy kitchen, sold recently for $300K, and D, the subject property being appraised, is under contract for $300K with a "free" kitchen upgrade. In this case it is certainly questionable whether the upgrade is actually "free," but the fact that C sold for $300 justifies the value of $300 for D.
But what if you have E, sold for $300 with a fancy kitchen, as a comp for F selling for $310 with a "free" upgrade? If the true "market reaction" to the fancy kitchen is $10, then the appraised value of F would be $300, not $310. This is why lenders calculate LTV on the lesser of sales price or appraised value in a purchase transaction. A prudent lender making an 80% loan for F would calculate the maximum loan amount as 80% of $300, not 80% of $310.
The real difficulty comes in when you play around with that concept of "market reaction" to certain amenities. What if you had a situation where G just sold for $300 with a plain kitchen, and H is under contract for $300 with a "free" upgrade that nobody disclosed to the appraiser? The appraiser might use G as a comp for H and say that the value of $300 for H is supported.
But why does the builder have to give away a free kitchen upgrade in order to get someone to buy the house for the same price as an identical house? An appraiser taking this into account might reduce the value of H to $290.
Haps, the way I think of it is not that the lender just got a call option, it's that the borrower just lost his put option.
The ability to prepay a mortgage without penalty is a free at-the-money put. The ability to prepay with some prepayment penalty is a put with an out-of-the-money strike price.
You can exercise your put by selling the property or by refinancing it.
So you never lose your legal right to prepay, you just lose your ability to raise the funds, or you find your put is out of the money in any scenario.
If what you were buying was a place to live and you counted on making the payments, you just shrug and keep on keepin' on.
If you went long house and hedged it with the famous always-in-the-money-put, you might as well be getting a margin call.
I wouldn't think that concessions that convey are the problem: appliances, countertops, pools etc. But seller paid points, "decorating allowances" (somebody better keep receipts) cash back addenda of any kind. That is what they will be paying law clerks and accountants to find as they plow through loan documentation trying to find an excuse to return this poo to the originator.
Tanta: So you're saying that part of the traditional 20% down was to account for the difference between "fair market value" and "liquidation value."
Tanta: So you're saying that part of the traditional 20% down was to account for the difference between "fair market value" and "liquidation value."
Yes and no.
In the sense that the "traditional 20% down" meant the lender's exposure was reduced in the event of forced liquidation, yes.
But if you're just talking about lender exposure, the 20% doesn't have to come from a down payment out of borrower funds. It could come from MI, a second lien, a gift of equity, or just property appreciation (in a refi).
The idea of 20% as a down payment made by the borrower from his or her own funds, not just 20% down, has more to do with lessening the probability of foreclosure than lessening the severity of loss in a foreclosure. The idea being that the borrower with 20% of his own skin in the game will work harder at the loan than the borrower who has nothing to lose.
What a lender who allows high LTV with mortgage insurance or a second lien basically is doing is accepting the risk of increased frequency of loss with less severity, since the MI or the second lien holder takes what loss (and possibly then some) the borrower would have in the traditional mortgage. The MI or the second lien lender accepts increased frequency and severity by pricing premiums or interest rates high enough, given its own prediction of likely liquidation value, so that the losses are affordable. This is the theory.
What people tend to forget is that if the "market conditions" change such that all buyers are now required to come up with 20% in cash, the buyer pool shrinks until the prices come down. That's fine until you take into account the old loans on the books that no longer have a 20% cushion because that was based on the old prices. This implies that sellers are now scarcer, because they can't sell without bringing cash to closing to pay off the lender.
And that gets us back to my on-going fixation with DTI. Down payment is nice; FICO is nice. But people carry loans with cash income. No lender has "limited" exposure if it has borrowers who cannot afford the payments and cannot afford to sell.
I like the idea of a rate adjustment being an ersatz margin call. I like it alot.
It's much more "stock time" than "real estate time".
But, once again, despite the existence of Calculated Risk, it is hard to just pick up the paper and tell what the price of housing is.
The puts that players in these comments are writing are on stocks not houses, so to speak, which is an effort to superimpose stock time on real estate time.
I suppose the real question is whether this décalage between the two time frames is bullish or bearish. I would choose bearish, because it's probably like internal bleeding: you don't see it, so you don't worry about it.
Quick! Name the most famous case of internal bleeding in the last 100 years.
Answer: [rhymes with Princess Diana; okay, it is Princess Diana]
I wouldn't think that concessions that convey are the problem
I would agree with you if I trusted the calculations of "market reaction" that have been going on.
I've seen too many cash-out refis where somebody expects to see dollar-for-dollar increase in value for "improvements" that do not, in my view, increase value to the extent of their cost.
Granite countertops are cool? Then what about all those homes with Corian? Or marble? Weren't those cool once? What if it's harvest gold granite? You're giving value to something that someone is going to slice beets on? What's the expected appreciation of that?
I use "granite countertops" as a kind of short-hand for a kind of "improvement" that may present more questions about value than it answers. It could be and has in the past been something else.
I think the kinds of things that have been going on in the mortgage market, especially the "neg-am with a teaser rate", really have no counterparts in options trading. One of the bizarre aspects of this situation is that people who would never be allowed to sell naked put or call options have been allowed to engage in equally dangerous speculations on multi-hundred-thousand dollar scales, and to trade in real estate with far lower percentage margin requirements than are allowed in the case of stocks.
Of course, the rationale behind this has been that home prices are not volatile. But exactly because this kind of speculation has been allowed, that is no longer true.
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Mar 12, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- First Federal Bank of California, the wholly-owned subsidiary of FirstFed Financial Corp. and the fourth largest Los Angeles-based financial institution(a), today announced the appointment of Brian Leonard to lead its Residential Wholesale Lending Division.
Mr. Leonard built and implemented the secondary marketing department and oversaw the retail and wholesale production from product development to funding at Oakmont Mortgage Company, Inc./Ownit Mortgage, a start-up operation Mr. Leonard joined in 1989.
Ownit?
Most recently, as Senior Vice President and National Sales Manager at Mandalay Mortgage, Mr. Leonard managed a sales force of 100 across the United States and significantly increased funded loan volume.
Mandalay?
Prior to Mandalay, Mr. Leonard started his own mortgage company, West Coast Financial, and sold that business to United Capital Funding, Inc. where he served as President until 2005.
United Capital Funding?
According to James P. Giraldin, First Federal Bank of California's President and Chief Operating Officer, "As a 19-year veteran in financial services, real estate development and manufacturing, having functioned at all levels of management in positions responsible for sales, production, real estate development and operations, Brian brings with him a wealth of experience and expertise that will enable First Fed to achieve its lending goals of expanding its product lines and geographic reach for 2007 and beyond."
What I am interested in lately is which ocean liner is picking up which additional crew members out of what lifeboats it happens to find floating at sea . . .
What I am interested in lately is which ocean liner is picking up which additional crew members out of what lifeboats it happens to find floating at sea . . .
what are you implying? that they are hiring incompetent people, or also dishonest people?
dats2long
u2add
Tanta,
1) Is the story [URL listed below] of a foreclosure foulup an example of "a secondary mortgage note that got resold too many times that nobody knows who owns the note????". [Very strange since I thought that the mortgage servicer should know who should receive the mortgage payments after it deducts its servicing fee].
2) Is that what is suggested by some of the thread responders "winning the American Dream Lottery" -- since the foreclosing lawyer can't prove to the court who owns that mortgage note, that the homeowner is being illegally foreclosed upon AND also does not have to pay that secondary mortgage anymore???? Are the responders just being facetious?
Help What would you do?
[Note: I have no involvement. Just wondering about the consequences of losing the paperwork....]
Thank you, Tanta.
Thanks Tanta...very illuminating as usual, and follows up on my earlier mistaken notion about lenders profiting at borrowers expense. Another question Im hoping you can expound upon at some point is the relationship between foreclosure and bankruptcy for a homeowner. I read an article somewhere yesterday that said someone was trying to stave off foreclosure by filing for bankruptcy. I didnt know this was possible, or how the two relate in general, but am quite interested. Perhaps certain states have different laws where there are ways to use bankruptcy (perhaps Florida) where you can keep your house...anyway, if you could shine some light on this in general, Id be much obliged.
OT, but uh... interesting... From a Borkers Outpost thread. This could keep the party going. Seems a new form of renting is being formulated...
... so for today, 10 year Interest Only with a 30 Year Fixed rate is most common option. However, I was talking with a friend of mine (rumor alert!) who works for a large buyer of mortgage paper and she tells me that 20 and 30 year interest only balloon products are being discussed and we could see them before the end of 2007.
Borkers= Brokers, but I kinda like it... hehe
Greetings Tanta,
Great, simplified reo and foreclosure commentary. Others may be interested in learning how to avoid foreclosure if they have Piggy Back Mortgages or learning how Pay Option ARMs work. There are more free reports found here under Consumer Alerts.
Thanks for letting me share.
PS I will provide link backs to your blog and reo/foreclosure commentary on my site
We have a new client that is requiring a prior 3 month retrospective market analysis, a prospective 3 month market forecast and a current value for typical residential mortgages.
Folks ... this is a rarity and is possibly a sign of things to come.
This should be interesting; as most appraisers could not forcast when a stop light will turn green next, even after studying it for hours.
OT ... Tanta ... can you give examples of the main reason for buy backs? Are there other reasons above and beyond EPD? Can there be issues revolving around the appraisal?
My Dept co-workers have been floating some conspiracy theories tied to Fannie Mae. There is verbiage on their forms that severly restrict the addition or modification of their pre-printed certifications and assumptions and limiting conditions:
"This appraisal report is subject to the following scope of work, intended use, intended user, definition of market value,
statement of assumptions and limiting conditions, and certifications. Modifications, additions, or deletions to the intended use, intended user, definition of market value, or assumptions and limiting conditions are not permitted. The appraiser may
expand the scope of work to include any additional research or analysis necessary based on the complexity of this appraisal assignment. Modifications or deletions to the certifications are also not permitted. However, additional certifications that do not constitute material alterations to this appraisal report, such as those required by law or those related to the appraisers continuing education or membership in an appraisal organization, are permitted."
I can say that a very high percentage of appraisals I see do have some type of modification and/or additional assumption(s).
If it 'got thick' for Fannie Mae, could they use this as a basis for a buy back to insulate their losses?
Besides EPDs, most investors can put back loans to the lender that are:
Until the EPDs started in the spring, little attention was paid to appraisals, but that is getting most focus now by savvy investors.
Correction: I should have said, " Until the EPDs started last spring ".
Tanta,
Very detailed answer to my questions. Thanks. That is very clear .
It is intersteing to see if more lenders will go the judicial route in cases where they know the sale of the property will be less than the amount owed.
Outstanding Tanta - clears up a lot.
FoolMe, you'd be surprised at what servicers do and do not know at times. Anyone please feel free to correct me anywhere necessary. Im far from an expert on any of this. Basically, the chain of title is broken, according to the account given in the referenced thread. The first problem is that, regardless of the status of the chain, a third party servicer holds absolutely no title or interest in a note and therefore can be usually be challenged as to their authority to foreclose - not necessarily successfully but still an argument worth making when facing foreclosure. MERS is currently beating off attacks along these lines across the country. MERS is filing foreclosure actions left and right without any actual title or interest in the properties. MERS is also an excellent "cloaking device" for actual owners of notes. Additionally, county registries are losing money hand over fist because they have allowed MERS into the system. Nationally, registries must be losing millions in recordation fees to MERS because notes can be recorded in the name of MERS once and then assigned/sold/transferred as many times as possible without additional recordation fees paid to the county in which the loan is recorded.
Case law exists that if there is no original note then there can be nothing to enforce. Probably the inspiration for the reference to the "American Dream Lottery".
Part of the problem with regard to "chain of title" issues is that there is apparently no penalty anywhere in the country as to specific time limits to file deeds or assignments or other documents with county registries of deeds.
In my own case, it was literally more than two years between the recordation of the original note created by Superior Bank (March 2001) and the subsequent sales of the note to Merrill Lynch Mortgage Capital (March 2001) and later Merrill Lynch Mortgage Investors (March 2003). And both of those sales were recorded on the same day (Dec 19, 2003) - despite the two transactions taking place more than two years apart themselves - and only ten days before I was served with a Notice to Foreclose on my home (Dec 23, 2003). A professional title search that I had performed only showed Superior Bank as the note holder as of May 2003 as well.
Why the 2nd note holder was attempting foreclosure I'm not sure as junior loans are not usually afforded that option. Likewise, the homeowner would still have to deal with that junior note.
Something else to consider - simply obtaining a "certified copy" of the recorded note from the county registry isn't necessarily a reliable option either. Again, in my own case, what was recorded at my county registry is not everything that I actually signed at the closing table. Various addenda to which I agreed with my signature were never recorded. Hence, the note recorded is incomplete. Which is why I have insisted on seeing the actual note from Day 1 of beginning my current legal battle against Fairbanks/SPS, Merrill, e
, Merrill, et al.
In fact, I'm not sure if it was here or elsewhere that I read of an exercise in property ownership fraud. A news reporter demonstrated just how simple it is to "steal" anyone's home simply by creating and filing authentic looking documents pertaining to the sale of any given property. This was demonstrated by the reporter recording documents attesting to the sale of a governor's home, a mayor's home and the home of another county official to the reporter - ownership of all three properties conveyed to the reported for $1.00.
Tanta,
While it may be true that lenders do not want to foreclose on properties the same simply cannot be said for third party mortgage servicers. In fact, the longer a servicer can drag out a default situation that ultimately leads to foreclosure, the more money the servicer makes - depending on how the Pooling and Servicing Agreement between the note holder and the servicer is worded. And once the property is foreclosed upon and resold into the market, the property has then been successfully "laundered" and off of everyone's books. If there is no "redemption period" involved then the trail is officially wiped clean and it's on to the next property.
At one point I was able to track the potential for quadruple dipping on my own loan when all of the insurance policies invovled were taken into account. No one loses money anywhere on foreclosures - at least not the ones that have been securitized and led off to Wall Street for slaughter.
Tanta:
Thank you for that EXCELLENT explanation.
I have a few questions for you. For now I will just ask one:
Question: There are implicit protections afforded a borrower who is buying a property through a purchase money loan. The most important, as you know, is that in a foreclosure the lender may not seek a deficiency judgement against the borrower. However, those protections are lost for any second liens, or if the original purchase money loan was refinanced.
Many other blogs were mentioning that the lender often would 1099 the borrower for "debt forgiveness" in the case of a short sale. Is this allowed in the case of a purchase money loan?
What are the options of the junior lien holder? Can they 1099?
Dear Mike Dillon,
Thanks for taking the time to reply in the midst of your own mortgage foreclosure nightmare. From your website, I see that you are one of the victims of the Fairbanks debacle and your 4+ year mortgage nightmare is still ongoing.
I've learned alot from Tanta's uberpostings and the blog discussions, but the learning is mostly stressfree [since I'm educating myself as much as I can before buying a home], unlike you who had to learn about mortgages, servicing, foreclosure [especially the SLEAZY aspect of these matters] under the sword of impending foreclosure hanging over you.
Since you mentioned the simplicity of "stealing" anyone's home simply by creating and filing authentic looking documents pertaining to the sale of any given property -- I thought Title Insurance was supposed to prevent the sale of such "stolen" property -- Verifying proper title would catch this scam, no????
Geoff- Chapter 13 Bankruptcy gives a qualifying debtor a chance to keep his home by paying off his mortgage arrears over 3 to 5 years while making his regular mortgage payments on time.
A Chapter 7 Bankruptcy can delay the foreclosure process until the lender gets bankruptcy court permission to proceed.
Two years ago, the (few) people in Los Angeles facing an imminent foreclosure almost always filed Chapter 13- people were desperate to keep their homes.
Now so many people facing foreclosure are doing Chapter 7 and giving up the homes. They can't even afford their teaser rates; agreeing to pay their regular mortgage payments plus arrears over the next 3-5 years is not realistic for so many recent borrowers.
It seems like I have many more clients filing because they can't pay their teaser rates than I have clients hit with payment resets. Many of my clients were already maxed out at the time they purchased their homes in 2005/2006.
Thanks Tanta. Very illuminating as always.
1) So when we see REO listings (like the many with CFC) these include homes for which CFC was lender of record and now owns, as well as homes for which CFC holds the MSRs?
2) It seems NAR includes only listed proerties in their EHS survey. So foreclosures only show up in the EHS figures to the extent they are subsequently listed and sold?
CR this is the latest from Peter Schiff:
April 5, 2007
No More Legs to Stand on
As investors and market strategists sift through every new economic tea leaf for clues about the health of the U.S. economy, I am reminded of a group of railroad engineers discussing the structural qualities of the track bed while an overloaded fright train careens around a sharp turn. For those not lost in the inconsequential minutia, a severe recession is an outright certainty, regardless of what current statistics might indicate on a day-to-day basis.
Since the bursting of the dot.com bubble, the U.S. economy has been fueled by an enormous consumer spending spree. This largess has been artificially propped up by the largest real estate bubble in U.S. history. In fact, housing has acted as a three-legged stool upon which American consumers have been precariously perched. Those legs are: 1) home equity extractions; 2) adjustable rate mortgages; 3) the wealth effect.
First, rising real estate prices allowed Americans to routinely borrow against home equity and repeatedly refinance loans of any stripe (be they mortgage, credit card or automobile) at lower rates. If the home equity was turned into cash, or used to pay off other debts, the result was additional spending beyond what consumers could have afforded based solely on their incomes.
Second, adjustable rate mortgages, especially the "negative amortization" or the "interest only" varieties, allowed Americans to enjoy temporarily low mortgage payments despite accumulating bigger mortgages. The difference between those temporarily low rates and the normal rates, to which these loans would ultimately reset, was available to be spent by homeowners.
Third, as real estate prices rose, homeowners felt wealthier, which has been shown to be a stimulant to spending. In addition, the pervasive belief that home prices would continue to rise indefinitely led many Americans to make false assumptions regarding their financial circumstances and their need to save to meet future obligations and retirement goals. As a result, money that would have typically been applied to savings was spent.
These three factors combined to encourage consumer spending on an unprecedented scale relative to incomes, and allowed debt to rise to levels that would have been impossible had mortgage payments been fully amortized and real estate prices remained at historically reasonable levels. Of course, many economists confused this spending binge with legitimate economic growth, just as they confused rising home prices with increased savings. However, as with the dot.com bubble, the truth only becomes apparent to the inebriated when the punch bowl runs dry.
Now that ARMs are being reset to market rates, home prices are falling, and the wealth effect is working in reverse, consumers will be forced to atone for a prolonged period of conspicuous consumption by enduring an even longer one of frugality. Excess spending
Part two from schiff (it was cut):
Now that ARMs are being reset to market rates, home prices are falling, and the wealth effect is working in reverse, consumers will be forced to atone for a prolonged period of conspicuous consumption by enduring an even longer one of frugality. Excess spending will be replaced by excess savings. On the mortgage front, higher payments on ARMs mean less money available for discretionary spending. On the cash-out side, lower real estate prices mean houses will no longer act like ATM machines. Finally, as homeowners have to adjust their financial expectations to the new reality, saving will have to become the new national pastime, as millions of homeowners desperately try to make up for lost time.
However, it is important to point out that as a collapse in consumer spending ushers in a recession, the Fed will not have the luxury of lowering interest rates to cushion the fall. Despite surging unemployment, inflation will only accelerate, as extreme dollar weakness abroad translates into higher consumer prices at home. In addition, long-term interest rates will be headed higher as well, as foreign savers look to be compensated for this loss of purchasing power. Higher interest rates and substantial increases in the cost of living will only exacerbate the housing downturn and the recession, turning what would normally have been simply a severe recession into something far worse.
Although this may sound like a sobering scenario, it is definitely not the worst case. The real doomsday would only come as a result of Fed-created hyper-inflation which could be used to pump up all varieties of falling asset prices. Lets hope the boys at the Fed decide not to go there.
I hate it when people are more pesmistic than me. Makes me feel too normal.
Yal
Hyper inflation may or may not be coming. High inflation requires labor costs to rise a lot. Something, for the most part, not available to US workers. Failing rising wages, hyper inflation cannot happen.
So as foreign prices rise, folks cannot pay for it, having exhausted both the home ATM and Credit card options, because wages cannot rise fast enough. Demand drops here and abroad with the result of a recession and deflation.
Please help me get this straight-the loan servicing company has no right to file foreclosure- is that correct? If so, why am I seeing Wells Fargo on so many notices listed as the plaintiff when the say they do not own many?
FoolMeOnce: Full disclosure: I haven't had a "customer service" job since I was in college (you want fries with that?). I have, however, been the only one at her desk on some evil day when the receptionist has some furious borrower on the phone and all my fellow VPs in the servicing side were out hiding behind the loading dock smokin' a doobie (or at lunch, I forget the story). The only reason I have ever accepted such calls is that I know what happens when the receptionist quits without notice.
So I have spoken to "Kathy." I have also asked my computer to reboot faster. I once asked God to make numbers divisible by zero.
And here we are.
The note is a promise to pay. When someone purchases a loan in the secondary market, that person is always buying at least the note. (I call that buying "the asset.") This is effected by the originator of the loan endorsing the note. Just like you endorse a check: the note gets stamped on the back with "pay to the order of" and an officer of the originating lender signs it. If it gets sold again, it gets endorsed again. When loans are securitized, they are often endorsed "in blank." This makes sense if you think about it: the party with the right to receive payments is the ultimate buyer of the MBS. I can't endorse a note to Bob and Carol and Ted and Alice. I endorse it in blank, deliver it to the custodian of the security sponsor, and that party (a bank with a trust department, usually; the GSEs are also often their own custodians) holds that note on behalf of the bondholder. Should there ever be a default, that note endorsement can be completed (filled in) in favor of the investor or its nominee in order to achieve standing in court to sue somebody or foreclose or what have you.
"Kathy," of course, has hung up by now. But this is CR, and the Nerds are still with me, right?
The mortgage (DOT) is a separate document, but it refers to the note ("of even date herewith"). A mortgage is not endorsed; it is "assigned." I assign my security interest (my lien on your property) to another party, meaning the party who has the right to receive the loan payments. I do this by recording the assignment in the land records of the county where the mortgage is filed, so that anyone searching public records can see who owns the lien. (These days, that is often accomplished by recording the assignment to an outfit called MERS, which is an electronic database that acts as "nominee" for the owner of the security interest. This is one of those "technological innovations" that everybody likes until it pisses them off.) In any case, I could assign the security interest to the party who bought the note, or I could assign it to the servicer nominated by the investor. Bob and Carol and Ted and Alice don't want to have to file motions in court to foreclose on a property; they're just coupon-clippers. If the security interest is assigned to the servicer as nominee for the note-holder, the servicer can act on the note-holder's behalf.
It therefore makes approximately jack shit difference to an individual borrower who owns the note. You are obligated to pay the money to the party indicated in your note, unless that party sends you notice (the note says this) that you should send the money to someone else. You then send your money there. It makes no legal difference whether you are sending your money to a servicer on behalf of an investor or to a servicer who is also the investor. That would be the investor's problem. And anyone who can bring evidence of assignment of mortgage in its favor, not superceded by any subsequent assignment, can sue your ass in court or foreclose on you. That party does not have to own the note.
By this point, I am always wishing I was out behind the loading dock smokin' a doobie.
If it 'got thick' for Fannie Mae, could they use this as a basis for a buy back to insulate their losses?
Yesiree Bob.
I could do a post about "typical" repurchase issues. For now, just remember that a loan sale contract always involves the seller of the loans making a bunch of representations about them to the buyer. The contract also says that if any of those representations turn out to be untrue, the seller must take the loan back if the buyer demands it.
Sometimes the loan sale agreements are great huge 50-page documents listing a jillion specific reps. Sometimes they're shorter, because they say things like "the mortgage loan complies with all the terms, conditions and requirements of [The Guidelines] in effect at the time of origination of such mortgage loan." (I just copied that sentence out of a contract that happens to be in my file drawer.) You can put anything the parties agree to in the brackets. Very often, people put things like "Fannie Mae's Selling Guide and Servicing Guide" in those brackets. If so, then any loan is repped and warranted to meet every last little nit-picky rule in those hundreds of pages publised by Fannie Mae. Which would include appraisers getting "creative" on the assumptions used in the appraisal.
Question: There are implicit protections afforded a borrower who is buying a property through a purchase money loan. The most important, as you know, is that in a foreclosure the lender may not seek a deficiency judgement against the borrower. However, those protections are lost for any second liens, or if the original purchase money loan was refinanced.
Many other blogs were mentioning that the lender often would 1099 the borrower for "debt forgiveness" in the case of a short sale. Is this allowed in the case of a purchase money loan?
What are the options of the junior lien holder? Can they 1099?
Nick, the purchase money rule you're referring to is a California law. I don't know off the top of my head how many other states might have such an exclusion, but my memory is not very many. You must always beware of people making sweeping claims about how FCs work when they don't specify the state they're talking about. I won't suggest that Californians tend to see themselves as the center of the universe, but, well . . .
As far as I know, any lender who forgives debt is required to send a 1099. That is not a matter of state foreclosure law; that is a matter of federal tax law. We should probably get dryfly to ask his sister . . .
I thought Title Insurance was supposed to prevent the sale of such "stolen" property -- Verifying proper title would catch this scam, no????
Words to take to heart when some fast-talking broker offers you a "low cost" refi without all those terrible expenses that those other evil lenders charge, like title search . . .
1) So when we see REO listings (like the many with CFC) these include homes for which CFC was lender of record and now owns, as well as homes for which CFC holds the MSRs?
You can never assume that the party offering the REO for sale is the party who made the loan or owns the note; it could just be the servicer who is selling the REO on behalf of the investor, who will get paid off out of the proceeds.
I seem to recall that CFC does report those things separately in its financial statements (true REO and serviced or subserviced REO).
Tanta,
Thanks, very enlightening.
In regards to these notes that have changed hands, get sold to investors, etc., who ends up with the REO? Someone who packaged the bonds, like JP Morgan?
In regards to the 1099 on debt forgiveness, I read that there are several outs to having to declare it as income. One was just that you have more debts than assets. I would think that would cover about 95% of the people who find themselves in this situation, so I think this is a much smaller deal than some are making it out to be. But getting a 1099 for $30,000 you didn't expect must cause a certain amount of anxiety in the short term...
Bob, the owner of the real estate is the party who took title at the auction. The confusion reigns because we forget that these things can happen directly (by the party of the first part) or by nominee (by the party of the nth part on behalf of the party of the first part).
So, say CFC makes a bid at a foreclosure sale and wins. That could mean:
And so on. An investment bank doesn't own anything unless it has an ownership interest in the security.
The GSEs are different because GSE MBS are guaranteed. Fannie will buy a defaulted loan out of the MBS (so the investor gets principal back), and then the servicer will foreclose on Fannie's behalf. If you happened to have a private issue security in which an investment bank offered such a guarantee--that'd be news to me, frankly--the same situation would apply.
Now, if you had to foreclose on a loan that was so new it was still secured by a lien owned by a warehouse lender? Help me, Rhonda. The system isn't set up to make sense of things like that: remember that "normal" mortgage markets do not experience EPD epidemics. So in that case the warehouse lender (could be an IB) would have to get the endorsement and file the assignment (in favor of its servicer) and then be the party of the first part. Send guns and money to the lawyers.
Anyway, this is what we mean when we say that a foreclosure "returns principal to the investor." Until such time as the REO is sold, the security holds RE assets (which used to be loan assets). When the sale takes place, the proceeds net of expenses become principal and are paid to whoever owns a principal tranche.
Would anyone have any idea as to why it would be beneficial fro a third party servicer to appear on an assignment recorded at the registry months or years before they actually had legal right to service the loan?
Ex. - Litton legally obtains servicing rights to Loan X on August 1, 2000. The hello/goodbye confirms this and up until this time the borrower has been making monthly payments to BoA without incident. But when the assignment is pulled up at the county registry it shows that Litton began servicing the loan February of 2000 or even March of 1999.
What would be the benefit to Litton in such an instance? Tax purposes? Inflating the books for better Fitch ratings?
Cartman, I cannot answer your question because I do not understand the terms you use.
Legally, the date of "transfer of servicing" is not identical to the date any assigment of mortgage is recorded. In fact, there is no such necessary relationship between the two. Any party can service a loan without an assignment recorded in its favor. The only thing it generally cannot do without a recorded assignment is foreclose. But it can certainly collect payments without an assignment. An investor can, if it wants to, require that the mortgage be assigned to it, rather than to its servicer. It makes a little more work for the investor should foreclosure be necessary--since it means the investor must be party to the FC directly--but there's no law against it.
There are also "master servicers" and "subservicers." It is certainly possible that Litton became the master servicer in 1999 or early 2000, but BoA sub-serviced the loan for Litton until 8/00.
In most cases, an assignment is recorded after a servicing transfer. Sometimes it isn't recorded at all; it is prepared in "recordable form" and kept by the servicer, to be recorded if and only if foreclosure becomes necessary.
It isn't usual to find someone recording an assignment prior to transfer of servicing, but it can happen. Your example would make more sense to me if you told me who assigned this mortgage to Litton in 2/00 or 3/99. Why would there be two assignments to Litton?
You are aware that assignments are never removed from the public record? They are merely superceded by new assignments?
It's possible that, if BoA were the original lender, it recorded an assignment in to Litton in error in 2/00. In order to fix that, Litton would have to record an assignment back to BoA. Then BoA could re-assign to Litton correctly. In other words, there could be 50 different assignments recorded in the land records. You follow the chain to the most recent to see who has the legal lien at the moment. My point is that every assignment has an assignor and an assignee. I don't think anyone could tell you what is happening here without that information.
There are no tax advantages to recording an assignment, and it has no effect on your accounting or your rating.
Deafaulting on martgage and then filing chapter 7 should give you about 6 month of absolutely FREE housing. Too good to miss this opportunity.
Vader writes:
"High inflation requires labor costs to rise a lot. Something, for the most part, not available to US workers. Failing rising wages, hyper inflation cannot happen."
"So as foreign prices rise, folks cannot pay for it, having exhausted both the home ATM and Credit card options, because wages cannot rise fast enough. Demand drops here and abroad with the result of a recession and deflation."
It seems that one can make the arguement (a la the chicken or the egg) that increased prices cause increase wage pressure. If prices go up, workers need more money and demand higher wages."
Further, he precludes wage pressure as "Something, for the most part, not available to US workers." I assume he means off-shore competition. However, there is a political dimension to wages. I highly militarized work force resulting from decreasing standard of living is not something that the FED or congress would want to see - I should think. They could then increase the money supply to meet wage demands.
"3. An MBS now owns real estate, because the loan foreclosed was owned by that security, and CFC is the servicer for the security."
Tanta,
Thank you. But just so I understand #3, is this correct?
CFC made the bid on behalf of the MBS
And now this MBS itself has property on it's books.
Does it shows up in CFC's list of REO?
I would think just the paperwork involved in one or two properties being bought by the MBS would really hit the margins, I mean beyond the whatever loss they have on the property itself.
BTW, happy Easter everyone. I hope your egg hunts went well...
Does it shows up in CFC's list of REO?
Well, the question is what "list."
If CFC voluntarily publishes a list of REO, it could include only its own "true" REO, or all REO it handles, including what it handles as servicer on someone else's behalf. I presume it would say so.
What it shows in its financial statements would have to be clearly distinguished as its own REO versus investor REO, since the latter is not its own asset.
My own rule of thumb--actual mileage may vary in different states and with different borrower situations, like BK--is that FC & REO management expenses run an average of 15% of the loan balance. Plus there's accrued but unpaid interest. So if you FC a 100% loan, you've already lost 20% even if you can get the original sales price for it. ("You" here are probably a mortgage insurer, remember, or a second lien holder.)
At one point in our lives, we lenders knew that.
Hope the Bunny came through for you. Being the cheapskate I am, I buy my Easter M&Ms tomorrow at half off, so I won't be in a chocolate-induced altered state of consciousness until later in the week.
(5) the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale.
That got a small laugh out of me.
Happy Easter everyone and thanks Tanta for an informative post. You all should know that Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) correctly forecast each of the past three U.S. recessions months ahead of time. Here is an interview with ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan in which he also discusses the outlook for home prices:
ECRI | Home
Can someone please tell me what he says? For some reason I can't watch these Bloomberg TV interviews with Safari because it makes Safari crash (maybe I should download IE or some other browser?) TIA.
The guy from ACRI was not convincing at all. I think he does not have any idea. He sais the down turn is over and the economy is now going up....
Actually, David, there's a footnote to that I left out for length reasons, but you might be interested:
*Adjustments to the comparables must be made for special or creative financing or sales concessions. No adjustments are necessary for those costs which are normally paid by sellers as a result of tradition or law in a market area; these costs are readily identifiable since the seller pays these costs in virtually all sales transactions. Special or creative financing adjustments can be made to the comparable property by comparisons to financing terms offered by a third-party institutional lender that is not already involved in the property or transaction. Any adjustment should not be calculated on a mechanical dollar for dollar cost of the financing or concession but the dollar amount of any adjustment should approximate the market's reaction to the financing or concessions based on the appraiser's judgment.
I would bet you the entire contents of my Easter basket that a whole bunch of loans for new construction, in particular, are being or will be repurchased because someone didn't tell the appraiser about the sales concessions, or the appraiser knew but didn't honestly adjust value for it. There are going to turn out to be some incredibly expensive free granite countertops.
Couple of questions:
OR
I got it all wrong and R/E is indeed up ?
BTW, happy Easter everyone. I hope your egg hunts went well...
Mine's been great so far... the wife took the youngest up to visit the in-laws (they are house sitting & the places in cramped so the oldest & I got a pass - yippeee)...
So I'm into my easter basket now... halfway through the Bohemian Pilsner 'eggs'... might dig into a Porter later. or just some Port. Choices, choices.
When they call them 'high holy days'... might as well take it literally.
Hey, keep your fly dry.
Sorry, Yal, but I told you people a while ago that I thought AHM smelled funny, and mostly what I got back was eye-rolling. (I can see you all do that in Haloscan, you know. I don't need the triple-witching hour to witch.) So you go ahead and make the AHM predictions for a change.
I'm on to my new bad-vibes candidate for Very Bad Mortgage Day. If I were sober I might even tell you about it . . .
Tom
Anything can happen, the question is what is most likely: Germany circa 1930s or Japan circa 1990s or US circa 1930s.
The one thing we know is that the Japanese government attempted to re inflate without success. In a depression, deflation happens, not due to a lack of money, but a lack of velocity of money. An infinite supply of money may exist, but unless demand for labour exists, it simply does not matter.
If someone needs labour and has a lot of money and offshore is a lot cheaper than native, then offshore will trump. Now you may argue if you depreciate the US $ to the point it will change,but the magnitude of the change is immense. The last I checked, China wages is 2.1 percent of US wages so a 50x drop in $ is needed. Not to mention that India is even cheaper than China.
Re: Schiff and Hyperinflation and Labor Costs:
In inflationary times, labor costs will always attempt go up. This 1) may be a secondary effect, as workers attempt to make up for the shrinking value of their money. Or 2) it may be the primary effect if there is a labor shortage.
As far as I can tell, there is no overall labor shortage in our economy, save perhaps in some specialized areas. So the cause of inflation will be an increase in the cost of goods due to increases in costs for energy and raw materials, or a weak dollar that buys less.
If the dollar weakens significantly, I expect inflation in the U.S. in at least the short and medium term. Imported products and energy will cost more and then, as a feedback effect, demand for higher domestic wages will also grow.
If the Fed then steps in to increase money supply (as in a stagflation scenario), that'll just make things worse. A lot worse.
Tanta said...
"I would bet you the entire contents of my Easter basket that a whole bunch of loans for new construction, in particular, are being or will be repurchased because someone didn't tell the appraiser about the sales concessions, or the appraiser knew but didn't honestly adjust value for it."
About 2 months ago we got a bulk of 50-60 appraisals for sales of new construction in the Pheonix area.
We're talking sales with huge concessions from the builders ($25k up to about $100k if memory serves me correctly - all cash back too).
All the appraisals values met the sales prices with little or no dicussion of the large concessions.
We then order retrospective drive by appraisals on the properties as an audit condition of the client (we also sent the 1st pg of the orig appraisal - so the next appraiser would have access to the contract info). We then also gave special instruction to pay particular attention to contract info and potential unusual concessions on the sales.
Wouldn't you know it ... the vast majority came back with very similar values with 'glossy' comments discussing the concessions being typical for the neighborhood and not affecting overall market values and/or prices.
Wadda ya gonna do ??? I don't know if all these closed and got funded ... but if I was a bettin' man ... I'd say ya!
I may go on a rant later about 'concessions' ... If I don't crash from all the sugary candy ... Oh How I Gotta Have The PEEPS!
I'm not so much interested in AHM, but in whether people will connect what that has happened to AHM to DSL, FHn, CFC, WM, FED (First Fed) etc. What I don't understand is how the enconomy can be doing fine while regional and community banks seem to be deteriorating so quickly.
Looking at the 191 or so industry sectors tracked by IBD, Midwestern and Northeastern banks are near the bottom and the South and West are not going great. At some point, problems in the financial sector must effect the larger outlook, I would think. Many of the community banks that were doing well through the first three quarters of last year, got hit during the fourth quarter. From what we are hearing, the situation for banks is getting worse, even though the yield curve is not as bad.
Admn Revwr
Dang, its Easter night.
Sales concessions up to 50% on Easter Candy.
bye you all.
Yal, Tanta and Bill - I don't know what's going to happen with AHM but I found a website you may find useful:
Stock Message Board, Stock Blog, Stock Research, All-In-One!
What this site does is to aggregate the various stock chat message forums into one site. I would enter the ticker AHM but this site doesn't support Safari so I will have to download either IE or firefox first.
Charlie S-- It says Safari isn't supported, but it works fine after you click OK in the warning...
I hadn't been thinking about the free kitchen upgrades and the like, I was thinking of the creative loan products. An Interest Only or a Neg Amortization is pretty bloody creative. Shouldn't these have required some adjustment to the price of the property?
(1) buyer and seller are typically motivated
So what if there's a bubble or drought market?
(i.e. what is "typical"? Is it typical considering the past few weeks or typical considering the past few decades?)
Tanta:
"I would bet you the entire contents of my Easter basket that a whole bunch of loans for new construction, in particular, are being or will be repurchased because someone didn't tell the appraiser about the sales concessions, or the appraiser knew but didn't honestly adjust value for it."
I read this as investors can turn back an individual loan because failure to adjust for concessions is a reps & warrents violation.
1) So, wouldn't you think investors would be going one-by-one through their defaults and passing these back to the originator. Obviously this has happened to Freemont and others in sub-prime, but based on Admin Reviewer's previous note, this is obviously more than a sub-prime issue.
And from Admin Reviwer's note this seems pretty easily detected. So wouldn't it pay the investor to have someone go through their bad loan portfoolio and send back all those with the free granite countertops?
This post loan DD could be a growth industry.
2) I'm on to my new bad-vibes candidate for Very Bad Mortgage Day. If I were sober I might even tell you about it . . .
Just like with your popsicle green-mini Tanta talk which got me all lathered up.
So I'm dying already, come on and show us a little leg.
I am not sure how "free granite countertops?" factor into this ?
If the builder upgarded the house - so the house is wirth more doesn't it ?
so why would the loan amount be wrong because "free granite" ?
Anyone interested in the possibility that the GSE's might be attacked soon by irresponsible elements in the ultra-liberal Democrat party should read the following. It is all too evident what the agenda of those trying to bring down the Justice Department (and soon the GSE's I fear) is.
Another Layer of Scandal - NY Times
I fear for my country when I see this kind of blood lust from the lunatic left.
arbogast
What are we going to do with you babe? Were discussing foreclosures and you out in right field picking daisies. Take another Soma and check back with us in a week or so.
So what if there's a bubble or drought market?
(i.e. what is "typical"? Is it typical considering the past few weeks or typical considering the past few decades?)
Hey! Don't ask me. I still haven't gotten over the requirement that buyers and sellers are supposed to be rational and informed. You'd need a Real Economist to explain that.
So wouldn't it pay the investor to have someone go through their bad loan portfoolio and send back all those with the free granite countertops?
Somebody is paying my comrades-in-arms at Clayton to do that as we speak.
Okay, I'll discuss foreclosure.
As I understand it, in 1929 things came undone quickly because margin calls were triggered when stocks started to swoon.
There's no such thing as a margin call in real estate. If you can make the payments on your mortgage or get forgiveness or forbearance or whatever, it doesn't matter if your LTV exceeds 100%. Or 200% for that matter.
But it starts to matter during foreclosure. In fact, foreclosure is the next best thing to a margin call (insofar as margin calls forced the sale of stock) that real estate has to offer.
Significance? Well, the players in the financial community, bulls and bears alike, are used to "stock time". "Real estate time" is much slower.
I realize this is beginning to sound like a bear case. I assure you it isn't. It is a thinly disguised bull case. Sparta!
I'm on to my new bad-vibes candidate for Very Bad Mortgage Day. If I were sober I might even tell you about it . . .
Hey I'm not asking for me, I'm only thinking about Bob_in_MA and YAL needing some more shorts.
Yal, this is how it's supposed to work in the "textbook" case:
Property A and B are basically identical, except that A has the fancy kitchen upgrade and B has the plain old standard kitchen.
A was recently sold for $300K. B is under contract for $290K. The appraiser wishes to use A as a "comparable" sale to support the value of B.
If the appraiser concludes that the "market reaction" to a fancy kitchen is plausibly $10K, he "adjusts" the price of A by ($10K) to bring it in line with the subject property B. Now they are the "same price," and so he concludes that A supports the value of $290K for B.
What he does not do is say the value of B is $300K, because the house next door sold for that. He accounts for these differences.
Now take a situation in which C, with the fancy kitchen, sold recently for $300K, and D, the subject property being appraised, is under contract for $300K with a "free" kitchen upgrade. In this case it is certainly questionable whether the upgrade is actually "free," but the fact that C sold for $300 justifies the value of $300 for D.
But what if you have E, sold for $300 with a fancy kitchen, as a comp for F selling for $310 with a "free" upgrade? If the true "market reaction" to the fancy kitchen is $10, then the appraised value of F would be $300, not $310. This is why lenders calculate LTV on the lesser of sales price or appraised value in a purchase transaction. A prudent lender making an 80% loan for F would calculate the maximum loan amount as 80% of $300, not 80% of $310.
The real difficulty comes in when you play around with that concept of "market reaction" to certain amenities. What if you had a situation where G just sold for $300 with a plain kitchen, and H is under contract for $300 with a "free" upgrade that nobody disclosed to the appraiser? The appraiser might use G as a comp for H and say that the value of $300 for H is supported.
But why does the builder have to give away a free kitchen upgrade in order to get someone to buy the house for the same price as an identical house? An appraiser taking this into account might reduce the value of H to $290.
Arbogast -
Because of HPA borrowers never had to face the margin call, but with negative HPA the margin could result from a refi triggered by a recast.
The result being foreclosure.
Haps, the way I think of it is not that the lender just got a call option, it's that the borrower just lost his put option.
The ability to prepay a mortgage without penalty is a free at-the-money put. The ability to prepay with some prepayment penalty is a put with an out-of-the-money strike price.
You can exercise your put by selling the property or by refinancing it.
So you never lose your legal right to prepay, you just lose your ability to raise the funds, or you find your put is out of the money in any scenario.
If what you were buying was a place to live and you counted on making the payments, you just shrug and keep on keepin' on.
If you went long house and hedged it with the famous always-in-the-money-put, you might as well be getting a margin call.
I wouldn't think that concessions that convey are the problem: appliances, countertops, pools etc. But seller paid points, "decorating allowances" (somebody better keep receipts) cash back addenda of any kind. That is what they will be paying law clerks and accountants to find as they plow through loan documentation trying to find an excuse to return this poo to the originator.
Tanta: So you're saying that part of the traditional 20% down was to account for the difference between "fair market value" and "liquidation value."
Tanta: So you're saying that part of the traditional 20% down was to account for the difference between "fair market value" and "liquidation value."
Yes and no.
In the sense that the "traditional 20% down" meant the lender's exposure was reduced in the event of forced liquidation, yes.
But if you're just talking about lender exposure, the 20% doesn't have to come from a down payment out of borrower funds. It could come from MI, a second lien, a gift of equity, or just property appreciation (in a refi).
The idea of 20% as a down payment made by the borrower from his or her own funds, not just 20% down, has more to do with lessening the probability of foreclosure than lessening the severity of loss in a foreclosure. The idea being that the borrower with 20% of his own skin in the game will work harder at the loan than the borrower who has nothing to lose.
What a lender who allows high LTV with mortgage insurance or a second lien basically is doing is accepting the risk of increased frequency of loss with less severity, since the MI or the second lien holder takes what loss (and possibly then some) the borrower would have in the traditional mortgage. The MI or the second lien lender accepts increased frequency and severity by pricing premiums or interest rates high enough, given its own prediction of likely liquidation value, so that the losses are affordable. This is the theory.
What people tend to forget is that if the "market conditions" change such that all buyers are now required to come up with 20% in cash, the buyer pool shrinks until the prices come down. That's fine until you take into account the old loans on the books that no longer have a 20% cushion because that was based on the old prices. This implies that sellers are now scarcer, because they can't sell without bringing cash to closing to pay off the lender.
And that gets us back to my on-going fixation with DTI. Down payment is nice; FICO is nice. But people carry loans with cash income. No lender has "limited" exposure if it has borrowers who cannot afford the payments and cannot afford to sell.
I like the idea of a rate adjustment being an ersatz margin call. I like it alot.
It's much more "stock time" than "real estate time".
But, once again, despite the existence of Calculated Risk, it is hard to just pick up the paper and tell what the price of housing is.
The puts that players in these comments are writing are on stocks not houses, so to speak, which is an effort to superimpose stock time on real estate time.
I suppose the real question is whether this décalage between the two time frames is bullish or bearish. I would choose bearish, because it's probably like internal bleeding: you don't see it, so you don't worry about it.
Quick! Name the most famous case of internal bleeding in the last 100 years.
Answer: [rhymes with Princess Diana; okay, it is Princess Diana]
SPAR-ta!
I wouldn't think that concessions that convey are the problem
I would agree with you if I trusted the calculations of "market reaction" that have been going on.
I've seen too many cash-out refis where somebody expects to see dollar-for-dollar increase in value for "improvements" that do not, in my view, increase value to the extent of their cost.
Granite countertops are cool? Then what about all those homes with Corian? Or marble? Weren't those cool once? What if it's harvest gold granite? You're giving value to something that someone is going to slice beets on? What's the expected appreciation of that?
I use "granite countertops" as a kind of short-hand for a kind of "improvement" that may present more questions about value than it answers. It could be and has in the past been something else.
Save the Fraudsters, the Ugly Details on Stated "Liar Loans"
Winter (Economic and Market) Watch » Save the Fraudsters
I'm thinking about the flipper/specu-vestor.
He goes long the house using a neg-am with a teaser rate.
Essentially this is buying a call option, and paying for the premium on the installment basis (the teaser).
Flipper/specu-vestor gets a margin call when the loan hits the say 110% recast.
He's not going to refinance. His call expires out of the money.
I think the kinds of things that have been going on in the mortgage market, especially the "neg-am with a teaser rate", really have no counterparts in options trading. One of the bizarre aspects of this situation is that people who would never be allowed to sell naked put or call options have been allowed to engage in equally dangerous speculations on multi-hundred-thousand dollar scales, and to trade in real estate with far lower percentage margin requirements than are allowed in the case of stocks.
Of course, the rationale behind this has been that home prices are not volatile. But exactly because this kind of speculation has been allowed, that is no longer true.
Bill & Hapsburger and anyone else who cares:
This is back from March on FED:
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Mar 12, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- First Federal Bank of California, the wholly-owned subsidiary of FirstFed Financial Corp. and the fourth largest Los Angeles-based financial institution(a), today announced the appointment of Brian Leonard to lead its Residential Wholesale Lending Division.
Mr. Leonard built and implemented the secondary marketing department and oversaw the retail and wholesale production from product development to funding at Oakmont Mortgage Company, Inc./Ownit Mortgage, a start-up operation Mr. Leonard joined in 1989.
Ownit?
Most recently, as Senior Vice President and National Sales Manager at Mandalay Mortgage, Mr. Leonard managed a sales force of 100 across the United States and significantly increased funded loan volume.
Mandalay?
Prior to Mandalay, Mr. Leonard started his own mortgage company, West Coast Financial, and sold that business to United Capital Funding, Inc. where he served as President until 2005.
United Capital Funding?
According to James P. Giraldin, First Federal Bank of California's President and Chief Operating Officer, "As a 19-year veteran in financial services, real estate development and manufacturing, having functioned at all levels of management in positions responsible for sales, production, real estate development and operations, Brian brings with him a wealth of experience and expertise that will enable First Fed to achieve its lending goals of expanding its product lines and geographic reach for 2007 and beyond."
What I am interested in lately is which ocean liner is picking up which additional crew members out of what lifeboats it happens to find floating at sea . . .
Thanks Tanta. Lots of flotsam out there.
What I am interested in lately is which ocean liner is picking up which additional crew members out of what lifeboats it happens to find floating at sea . . .
what are you implying? that they are hiring incompetent people, or also dishonest people?
I vote we rename the acronym REO to BORE(bank owned real estate.
The REO is a Florida short sales after the short selling of teh REO. To see the Florida short sales with a short sale in Florida
Déjà vu all over again. Good in depth article and a precursor to what was/is to become.