For the port data (POE) to be meaningful in terms of domestic consumption, you have to pull out the many thru-put shipments arriving on the West Coast and leaving the East Coast.
MG, I'm only going to use the port data as a general guide. There is too much missing information (the goods are from a variety of countries - China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, etc.) and there are other issues as you note.
However, as I look at the seasonal data for Chinese imports, I've noticed a distinct seasonal pattern. One of the patterns is that sometimes the low month of the year is FEB, sometimes MAR. The shipping data seems to help predict which month pretty well.
There is no question that April was a booming import month. I'm not sure it will reach $20.5B (like fatbear guessed), but I expect it to be above trend (trend is $18.8B NSA). For reference, imports from China for March were $16.2B NSA.
I'm surprised that the Out/In ratios were that good. Any data on an exclusive China/US ratio, and on the type goods involved etc.? Or we recieving sungalasses and shipping machine tools, rice??? What worth ratio?
IIRC Germany is the primary Chinese supplier of heavy machinery. And, IIRC, Chinese exports to us are growing 4 to 6 times as fast as their imports from us, so the numbers you report aren't completely inconsistent with that.
Brad, I'm open to suggestions! Right now I'm looking at trends for China (yearly and seasonal) and comparing to the shipping data. If something had changed, I'd factor that in too. Examples of changes: possible slowdown in US "soft patch", exchange rate (obviously nothing), new Chinese textile export tariffs and US quotas (NA for April), etc.
For Oil, I still need to add NSA exports and then figure a seasonal adjustment.
This will be simple, if it appears to be on the right track, I'll be open to any suggested improvements and refinements.
So if we ship out or in, at NO POINT does an American company make money. All this sea traffic, every boat worth, is profit for someone outside of America.
This is a staggering amount of money, one that isn't taken entirely into account. We are also utterly dependent upon shipping originating in other countries, WWII vets should understand what this means...
Though I've been watching the trade imbalance with deep concern for about 30 years, and consider them harmful to all due to their distortion of the pricing signals we depend on for optimal allocation of resources, I can't share Elaine's level of concern. The fact that Asian nations with so little infrastructure have been able to industrialize so rapidly in recent years is prima facie evidence that it's a lot easier than it used to be, and that when (and if) the time comes for us to reindustialize, it will be even less difficult for us.
And while a 6% annual trade deficit is serious money, it's no more "staggering" than someone with a $100K income taking on $6K of new debt a year. A good idea? No. But not economic suicide.
Hmmm -
handle more than $200 billion of cargo each year
$200B/yr = $16.7B/mo * 29% increase in April = $21.5B
Whaddya think?
CR,
For the port data (POE) to be meaningful in terms of domestic consumption, you have to pull out the many thru-put shipments arriving on the West Coast and leaving the East Coast.
I haven't seen any efforts to note this.
--
MG, I'm only going to use the port data as a general guide. There is too much missing information (the goods are from a variety of countries - China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, etc.) and there are other issues as you note.
However, as I look at the seasonal data for Chinese imports, I've noticed a distinct seasonal pattern. One of the patterns is that sometimes the low month of the year is FEB, sometimes MAR. The shipping data seems to help predict which month pretty well.
There is no question that April was a booming import month. I'm not sure it will reach $20.5B (like fatbear guessed), but I expect it to be above trend (trend is $18.8B NSA). For reference, imports from China for March were $16.2B NSA.
Best Regards!
I'm surprised that the Out/In ratios were that good. Any data on an exclusive China/US ratio, and on the type goods involved etc.? Or we recieving sungalasses and shipping machine tools, rice??? What worth ratio?
Well, Bush just prodded Japan into provoking China yet again today.
So things will get messier and messier and messier. Great, huh?
WWIII is going to be fun..
interesting ...
I'll try to look closely at your trade model (right now an oil import model) over the weekend. how do you intend to model monthly imports and exports?
IIRC Germany is the primary Chinese supplier of heavy machinery. And, IIRC, Chinese exports to us are growing 4 to 6 times as fast as their imports from us, so the numbers you report aren't completely inconsistent with that.
A little off topic, but for folks that like this sort of thing check out the "Baltic Dry Index".
Brad, I'm open to suggestions! Right now I'm looking at trends for China (yearly and seasonal) and comparing to the shipping data. If something had changed, I'd factor that in too. Examples of changes: possible slowdown in US "soft patch", exchange rate (obviously nothing), new Chinese textile export tariffs and US quotas (NA for April), etc.
For Oil, I still need to add NSA exports and then figure a seasonal adjustment.
This will be simple, if it appears to be on the right track, I'll be open to any suggested improvements and refinements.
Best Regards!
Please remember this, too.
There is NO AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANIES. Anywhere. At all.
On the west coast, they are all Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese and South Korean.
In NY, Scandinavian and northern European or Greek.
So if we ship out or in, at NO POINT does an American company make money. All this sea traffic, every boat worth, is profit for someone outside of America.
This is a staggering amount of money, one that isn't taken entirely into account. We are also utterly dependent upon shipping originating in other countries, WWII vets should understand what this means...
I thought that the east coast was similar to the west coast, More full containers coming in than going out.
Though I've been watching the trade imbalance with deep concern for about 30 years, and consider them harmful to all due to their distortion of the pricing signals we depend on for optimal allocation of resources, I can't share Elaine's level of concern. The fact that Asian nations with so little infrastructure have been able to industrialize so rapidly in recent years is prima facie evidence that it's a lot easier than it used to be, and that when (and if) the time comes for us to reindustialize, it will be even less difficult for us.
And while a 6% annual trade deficit is serious money, it's no more "staggering" than someone with a $100K income taking on $6K of new debt a year. A good idea? No. But not economic suicide.