Alt-A Update: AHM Reports Tail Period

Not sure if it means anything, but FED and AHM seem very strong today, while other lenders, such as CFC, DSL, and NDE are flat to down.

With the bond yields going down today, the market for refi's may get a boost.

Sucks to be Nat City today, too.

National City shares fell 59 cents to $37.11 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Results included charges for mortgages that National City kept when it sold First Franklin Financial Corp., a subprime unit, in the fourth quarter to Merrill Lynch & Co.

National City set aside $107 million for credit losses, quadruple the year-earlier $27 million, citing the mortgage environment and a dispute with a mortgage insurer that has been rejecting some claims.

Net charge-offs rose 21 percent to $147 million, including $53 million for nonconforming mortgages. These include "Alt-A," short for "Alternative-A," which are between prime and subprime in quality.

"The secondary market in mortgages has stabilized, but gain on sale, particularly in the Alt-A slice, has been under pressure," President Peter Raskind said in an interview.

Any one really think "we hit bottom" on the selling of securetized MBS ? or was it just a lul

Hey! If the housing market can stabilize, why can't the Alt-A market?

Maybe we need another bottom-calling contest.

Good news! Free ice on the foredeck.

That's what makes for a good short candidate: vulnerable business + stressed balance sheet + down trending sector + market volatility + continued stock buying (by god knows who).

Apropos a comment in the previous thread, the major investment banks that underwrote this market are now calling subprime and alt-A alike punk which means that one way or another they are covered so, assuming the securitization engine may be slowing down or at least demanding higher quality (estimating that will require more homework), the floor under outfits like AHM, et al can only drop further because they are already overleveraged and must sell their product.

Assuming also that the buyers for that product are not foolish (possibly a rash assumption) then the terms they will demand from actors like AHM are unlikely to completely staunch losses as more and more loans of previous vintages go bad and demands for restitution escalate.

There will be rumors of buyouts or takeovers from multiple sources, buy-backs of stock, calls that the bottom is in and now is the time buy (really, this time) and all sorts of ploys to show confidence and strength, and some may even turn out to be true when the price is really right, but in the meantime …(shrug)

That's the way I've played it and it's the way I'm playing it: So far so good but who knows, it's a whacky world out there.

Economist Lereah to leave NAR, join Move Inc. next month - MarketWatch

Economist Lereah to leave NAR, join Move Inc. next month

David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, is leaving NAR to join Move Inc. as chairman and partner of a new business entity next month, NAR said Monday. Move Inc. provides homebuyers and renters with information about real estate and communities before, during and after a move, according to its web site. Lereah directed NAR’s research division, regulatory and industry relations division and other activities.

Well, that sounds like a good idea. Lereah is skilled at giving people information after a move.

I guess Liereah gave up on calling the bottom Smile

Maybe we need another bottom-calling contest.

It's already underway. Check out the earnings release last week from Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH) and their conference call. CEO made news by claiming he thinks housing is at an "inflection point".

A total crock o crap, imho.

As someone (Yal?) pointed out the other day, Markit has altered the scale on their ABX charts  .

Now, the nose dive is not even noticable. I am sure all participants feel much better.

I guess they got tired of their chart being plastered all over the internet.

Does Lareah's leaving the NAR mean that some big-time, non-dismissable numbers are about to come out?

David Lereah, formerly NAR's spokesmodel/chief 'economist'...

Some comedy gold in this article:

Real Estate Data, Statistics, Demographics, & Trends: NAR Current News

Lereah will act as chairman and partner of the new enterprise under Move Inc. that will launch in the third quarter of 2007. He will serve with Allan Dalton, who will be president and CEO of the new business entity, which will be transformational for both consumers and real estate professionals.

“David is an expert on real estate and the economy, and his stature and expertise enhanced NAR’s position as the most credible source on economic and policy issues affecting the housing industry in the United States and abroad,” said Dale Stinton, NAR executive vice president and CEO. “We wish him the greatest success in his new endeavor.”

The home price trend is DOWN. That implies CLTV numbers will increase, which should have a conclusive bearing on the quality of standing loan portfolios. Risk of default becomes greater.

Has ANY of this RISK discounting happened yet? When DOES it happen? Wall St reacts only after it's clear a CH11 filing is imminent

CEO made news by claiming he thinks housing is at an "inflection point".

He's right! Housing's transitioning from a shallow decline into a free fall.

"Housing's transitioning from a shallow decline into a free fall. "

I am really intrested to see wide statistical data that supports this.

also the ABX are off from their lows and I wonder what really goes in the MBS market.

So far I don't think we really have data to go either way on this.

barely said: "The home price trend is DOWN..."

Not mine. I wish the value of my home went "down" like this every year.

I'm obviously going have to start my own "top-calling" contest.Smile

Sebastia

Jeremy Grantham quarterly letter to investors as GMO’s Chairman of the Board.
http://tinyurl.com/yuro2o

I think Lereah should take Rosie's soon to be vacant spot on "The View".

More MSM coverage via MSN...

Vegas ‘flipping’ boom ends up like most bets
Home speculators hurting across country, especially in desert boomtown

The 'experts' can call bottom all they want... it's when the market calls bottom that counts. I doubt we are very close until a lot of these trapped flippers are foreclosed out... and the market can really clear.

Not mine. I wish the value of my home went "down" like this every year.

Don't worry, Sebby -- the value of cardboard boxes will only climb from here on out. Smile

dryfly: Jackpot!

Schwartz, a 44-year-old life coach, said he “narrowly escaped financial disaster.”

Earth to sebastian!

Curious - what little slice of America do you call "home"? Sounds like you live in New Zealand.

Life coach.

This culture is doomed.

Error - washingtonpost.com

"Subprime mortgage lenders created a surge in delinquencies in the past year by repeatedly breaking their own underwriting guidelines to capture business, analysts said on Monday"

So the ridiculously easy underwriting matrices and rate sheets we have seen weren't as bad as what as really going on.

Having looked at that Credit Suisse graph, it seems that at least 95% of ARMs originated in the last 5 years have yet to reset.
Can anyone indicate a rational reason why the default rate for the other 95% would be lower than the first 5% we've just seen?

Tanta,
I remember watching a news program in 1998 or 1999 where a financial planner was bragging that she had her clients take out second mortgages to invest in the stock market because the returns were so much better than the interest payments.
As the sisters used to tell you "False prophets you will always have among you"...or something like that.

 &nbsp  Life coach.

This culture is doomed.

Surely it is a degree of economic specialization worthy of The Collapse of Complex Societies or at least Idiocracy.

lama said: "...Can anyone indicate a rational reason why the default rate for the other 95% would be lower than the first 5% we've just seen?..."

Nope. The other 95% are going to default at a higher rate than the first wave. The reasons are because the economy is weaker now, unemployment is going to rise, and the Fed is going to tighten interest rates to fight inflation, causing ARM rates to raise monthly mortgage payments beyond what these homeowners will be able to afford.

Sebastia

Hey, real consumer spending finally fell last month. Why aren't all the perma-bears dancing in the streets today?

is this really Seabastian:

"The reasons are because the economy is weaker now, unemployment is going to rise, and the Fed is going to tighten interest rates to fight inflation, causing ARM rates to raise monthly mortgage payments beyond what these homeowners will be able to afford.

Sebastian"

Rubini IMHO is too bullish.

Me think decline in wealth-effect +_ decline in MEW is more than 2% GDP.

Yal, me think you're right. Only time will tell.

Roubini is too bullish. According to the latest figures the "real" GDP (annualized) was $11.5 trillion. A typical 3% annual growth rate translates to about $346 billion a year.

If MEW was $579 billion in 2005 and fell by nearly half to $296 billion(and as per Roubini, still dropping), it's obvious that the economy is going to slow down considerably from the reduction in MEW spending. Without meaningful increases in income (there haven't been any), it would be impossible for the economy to do anything but fall into recession.

Sebastia

Doral Bank seeks private equity buyout. Article is worth taking a look at. Seems Doral got their fingers torched in the mortgage market.
Doral Pins Financial Survival on Private-Equity Talks (Update7) - Bloomberg.com

Sebastian,

Now knock it off. You're liable to hurt someone with that.

Seabastain,

I think today is the reversal in the Dow. (it would take only 48 to show if I am wrong)

anyhow,

If you were bearish in Feb, sold your PUTs any time in March, boght calls for April and becoming bearish again:

Me think you are a genious.

Did some kind of body-snatcher like thing happen to Sebastian?

so the chinese increased the bank reserves again and suddenly stock markets are crashing again.

Good read on US Currency with China

Too much like 1929

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"Now fast forward to today, and what you see is China as the emerging industrial power and the United States as the mature and stagnating industrial power. China is printing money in an effort to prop up the economy of the mature industrial power (the US). The inflation of the money supply is resulting in the overheating of the Chinese economy and stock market. Very interestingly, on February 27, 2007, it was the sharp 9% one-day drop in the Chinese stock market that led to the sharp drop in stock markets worldwide, including the US. People may be conditioned to think that economic events in developing countries pale in significance to economic events in the US, and may fail to see how what happens “way over there” in China would have any significant impact on their economic well-being.

But how different the truth really is. I think most people even now after the February 27th turn of events, fail to grasp why the US stock market sold off so sharply after the Chinese stock market sell off occurred first. The idea that a foreign stock market could dictate what happens in the US stock market almost offends the American sense of national pride (so the event is casually dismissed as “market irrationality”). A word of advice: you better get used to it, as there is much more of that to come. The crash is coming."

revro,

the real kicker is when Japan rase reserve requirements and China rase rates.

I was thinking today about the carry trade:

What does the bank of NZ does will all those Yen coming to them ? so they raise the NZ dollar abit and more and more but the YEN is coming for a reason.

So all this carry trade converted to NZ$ get's 6% or more per year but the NZ central bank can't invest those YENs to make money.

In the meantime those account in NZ accumulate moer and more interest and come the day someone from japan want to cash out.

Now granted they don't all come cashing out on the same day but how does the bank of NZ makes money ? does the bank loan the YEN's to someone ? Does it loan more than was deposited ? Well if they loan YENs in 1% but pay 6% on the NZ$ they would have to loan 6 times those deposits from japan just to break even.

I just don't understand how carry trade can continue with a NZ$. It is not like they are china and can use the YEN to buy back from japan what they need to grow. I just don't get it.

Having looked at that Credit Suisse graph, it seems that at least 95% of ARMs originated in the last 5 years have yet to reset.
Can anyone indicate a rational reason why the default rate for the other 95% would be lower than the first 5% we've just seen?

Haloscan sucks.

I wrote (and was cut off)

Depends on the distribution of defaults. Imagine you get lots of loans going bust in first months (fraud etc.), the market for loans currently shutdown (so the first bump is currently out the door) and a user base that's relatively desensitive to higer resets.

I don't believe this for one second - just practising.

Can anyone indicate a rational reason why the default rate for the other 95% would be lower than the first 5% we've just seen?
rcyran

yeah i can, you know, house prices never goes down Smile

btw. the bubble is getting better here in slovakia, eastern europe. this spring the prices of 2 and 3 room apartments rose from january to april 15%. hmm maybe the guys from NZ central bank are loaning to fools in my country, i mean world is just a big village Smile ok ok we have most of our capital from german and austrian banks

Depends on the distribution of defaults. Imagine you get lots of loans going bust in first months (fraud etc.), the market for loans currently shutdown (so the first bump is currently out the door) and a user base that's relatively desensitive to higer resets.

I don't believe this for one second - just practising.

Actually . . . I do think we'll see a change in the curve here. Which is not to say that defaults won't be higher than usual. The thing about any given rate adjustment date is that it will include 2-year old 2/28s, 3-year old 3/27s, 5-year-old 5/1s, and so on. Insofar as the crappiest vintages seem to be 2005 and 2006 originations, what we should start seeing adjust first are the older loans, and the real horrors (the 2/28s originated in mid-2006) won't blow for some time.

I'm sure a lot of bloviators will take great comfort from the fact that the nearest-term resets may not be so bad compared to the EPDs. But it will catch up.

lama said: "...Can anyone indicate a rational reason why the default rate for the other 95% would be lower than the first 5% we've just seen?..."

Sebastian said: "Nope. The other 95% are going to default at a higher rate than the first wave. The reasons are because the economy is weaker now, unemployment is going to rise, and the Fed is going to tighten interest rates to fight inflation, causing ARM rates to raise monthly mortgage payments beyond what these homeowners will be able to afford."

I know I'm about to pick a fight with Sebastian, which ain't so bright, but it had to be done.

I would argue that the opposite would be true, that instead there is going to be a lower rate of default on longer term ARMs. While your rational is sound, I just don't think that it's the only relevant issue. Thoe people with 7 and 10 year ARMs have a significant period of time during which they can move, earn more money, prepay their mortgage etc., all of which, I believe, will result in a lower rate of foreclosure.

Jeff,
The graph looks to reset dates, not origination dates. Most of those still set to reset are just later vintages of the same variety.
It does make some sense however, that people with longer initial terms will have more chances to refinance and bail themselves out (or take a larger loan as the case frequently is).

Jeff, I would agree that the 7/1s and 10/1s should do OK. But they're not going to reset for a while, and frankly there aren't that many of them, relatively speaking. There's a huge bunch of 5/1s, and I'm afraid that'll be a real mixed bag. Sure, you've got five years there for some HPA, but some of those folks bought at the top. Plus, most of them are IOs, so in addition to the rate adjustment you have the recast. Finally, a lot of them have 5% first adjustment caps instead of 2%, which means they'll hit fully-indexed.

Still, I do think the 5/1s will do better than the 3 and 2 year ones. That was what I was trying to say: at any point in the next few years, we'll be seeing a new crop of ARMs adjusting from a bunch of different vintages. So the "usual curve" of defaults will be very hard to predict. I'm suggesting that it might be worse than usual with ARMs, but not terrible until we get to the 2005-2006 originations, and those will just be starting.

I'm hoping that chart was based on outstandings, not originations. If they're still outstandings, they haven't refinanced yet.

Tanta:This culture is doomed.

Just in from my junk mail, even more civilization damning material.

Blessed with $46,000 after using prayer rug...
... God blessed me with over $5,0000.
Our Lord...Has blessed us with a BIG 6 ROOM HOUSE...
... RECEIVED $10,000.00 in a financial blessing...
... God made it possible for us to buy 17 ACRES OF LAND...

The impending bailout conjures up that scene from Dead Alive...

Stand back boy! This calls for some divine intervention!
 

Well if nothing else we'll all become mortgage connoisseurs... reminiscing about those lovely 2004-5/1s how they rolled off the check book and hardly an after taste, even at reset... but those nasty 2006-2/28s... not worth the paper they were printed on... and what a bite!

So when is somebody going to photoshop a 'Mortgage Aficionado' or 'MBS Spectator' fake cover? The Onion is waiting... do I have to spoon feed you people?

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