NBER: Recession ended in June 2009

Did they say when the next one will officially start?

It's over! Stop whining, you whiners! Snark

From previous...

RE: How Hyperinflation will happen.

I agree with this article. In fact, what I described in the UE/jobs market, if it occurs in lock-step, will support this picture too.

It's Greenspan's conundrum... "Why did the (Fed/Govt)'s action have no effect" multiplied several fold, re-anacted on bonds, jobs, etc.

When hyperinflation comes, it will not be easily cleaned up.

Yes, six months prior to the next announcement.

S.

By the way, why does it take them 18 months to recognize the end of a recession?

If they give themselves just a little more time, they can announce the start and end all at once. That would be useful.

Nemo wrote:

Did they say when the next one will officially start?

The economists from '80-'82 are long since retired and enjoying their (double|triple) dip retirement packages. The economists of 2010 could only dream of living so large.

Now can't wait to see how they'll spin Double Dip
Economics is hard

The recession being "over" has its parallels to the the flooding in Pakistan being "over":
Pakistan faces huge hunger crisis - UPI.com

LL here is the article. We discussed it earlier on a thread. Josap, I and a couple others figured out that all the states that are included have judicial foreclosure....

Mortgage giant halts foreclosures - MarketWatch

Maybe we needed more fanfare for the announcement today?

Would it have gone over better if Oprah announced to the nation* that

You can stay in your home indefinetly!
...and you can stay in your home indefinitely!
...and you can stay in your home indefinitely!
...and you can stay in your home indefinitely!
...and you can stay in your home indefinitely!
...and you can stay in your home indefinitely!
...and you can stay in your home indefinitely!
...and you can stay in your home indefinitely!
...and you can stay in your home indefinitely!

  • not applicable in all states

What's with Ally/GMAC?

I don't really remember, if any of them have been quit claim deeds. I check the legal, signing party, number of witnesses, notarization etc.

I don't think they'd honor any deed warranties anyway.

(like personal income less transfer payments). ~ CR

Exactly. And it sure is a good thing we never have to pay back the difference lest we impair future recovery. Snark

I posted the link upthread liz. They have halted all foreclosures and REO sales in a group of states.

How do you say "Ignore the man behind the curtain" in Gaelic ?

Or Portuguese?

Time for some European stabilization something-or-other.

DAWN.COM | Business | Pakistan agriculture may need 2 yrs for flood recovery

The ADB and the World Bank are assessing the damage caused by one of Pakistan’s worst natural disasters, which destroyed 1.3 million hectares of crops just before the harvest of key products such as rice, maize and sugarcane.

“Once the country gets back on its feet, it will be able to meet part of those agricultural import needs that will happen over the next two years,” Philip Erquiaga, director general of ADB’s private sector operations, told Reuters.

“We are thinking within that time horizon we should be able to see the agriculture sector coming back,” he told Reuters.

Agriculture is Pakistan’s second largest sector, accounting for over 21 per cent of gross domestic product. Nearly 62 per cent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods.

How did NBER make the call the recession was over in June 2009 ?
Tap Your Heels Together Three Times
Economics is hard

Nemo wrote:

Time for some European stabilization something-or-other.

Time for some Benny Bonzai Bonds! Kamikaze that kumulative (sic) akkount (sic) deficit into the ocean of liquidity!

I've heard of Peak Oil, but never Peak Reccession...

Do they discuss when the Depression II started, i.e., was it after the recession ended or during?

km4 wrote:

How did NBER make the call the recession was over in June 2009 ?

They used these:
Macroeconomic Advisers’ monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)

IMO they saw an inventory replenishment and called it a recovery.

This is somewhat subjective - and I thought they'd wait longer because the committee usually waits until some of the key indicators have returned to pre-recession levels.

Everything is exactly what the government says it is. How many fingers do you see, Winston?

[and I thought they'd wait longer because the committee usually waits until some of the key indicators have returned to pre-recession levels]

Yes. For example the stimulus spending. Absent that we are where we wer and maybe worse than June '09.

We are going to find out what the economy looks like sans Stimulus. I am curious.

How likely is this scenario? Can someone debunk this? I will have trouble sleeping at night if not.

How Hyperinflation Will Happen -- Seeking Alpha 

The author's scenario goes like this: One day, for some reason unexplored by the author, a large player will trade some treasuries for a necessary commodity, or a commodity will rise in price. This movement will effect treasury yields by increasing them. The central bank will try to control yields downward by buying treasuries. This buying action will be seen as an opportunity by large treasury holders to sell their treasuries for cash, which they'll use to buy the commodity, so that they can take advantage of the upswing in commodity now and buy back the treasuries they've sold later when the central bank's price action has ended. This will increase the commodity price further, magnifying the effect, and causing more large investment institutions to flee treasuries and buy commodities. The effects of this will be felt by the consumer, who will see drastically weakening purchasing power of their dollar for essentials like gasoline. This will trigger a mass panic, as consumers trade their currency for durable consumer goods and consumer commodities before prices go much higher. This produces hyperinflation which the current tools of the fed cannot deal with.

Sebastian wrote:

Yes, six months prior to the next announcement.

Sebastian is pessimistic? What planet is this again. Dude, the market is up rallying, up over 1% this morning. Get some.

The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.

Going forward O owns it.

timmay speed dials Barry:

"President Obama, did you hear the news, the recession was officially over in June 2009."

hears the sound of the presidents pencil tapping loudly on his desk.

The president responds: " so now we're really screwed!" and slams down the phone on poor timmay.

Recession over. The drinks are on Ben!

Recession Over, but Weakness Remains - WSJ.com

As worries persist about the struggling U.S. economy and its future path, the NBER warned "any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007."

Separately, the still-inflated U.S. unemployment figure is unlikely to return to precrisis levels for at least three years, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Monday, one of a number of challenges Washington policy makers face as they seek to encourage a sluggish recovery.

The OECD said in a report that the recent economic downturn could result in a permanently higher level of unemployment. While previous U.S. recessions didn't cause any long-term structural damage to the economy, "it is possible this recession will trigger these effects."

"It could be early 2013, at best, before the [unemployment] rate returns to its pre-recession level," the report said.

energyecon wrote:

“Once the country gets back on its feet, it will be able to meet part of those agricultural import needs that will happen over the next two years,” Philip Erquiaga, director general of ADB’s private sector operations, told Reuters.

How does one go about failing to feed one's people for two years? Perhaps we can cut them a deal. Do our dirty work and betray the Taliban and in exchange we give them humanitarian aid.

lawyerliz wrote:

I don't really remember, if any of them have been quit claim deeds. I check the legal, signing party, number of witnesses, notarization etc.

I don't think they'd honor any deed warranties anyway.

Liz

The quitclaim deed question goes back to a post by Yves Smith on Naked Capitalism about Wells Fargo addenda in Alabama. Yves asserted that quit claim deeds ("at best") were being used in REO sales in many states, and she said that the addenda and quit claim deed-like title gave buyers "no recourse to Wells. Zero. Zip. Nada."

This did not sound right to me on several grounds, including the claimed use of quitclaim deeds in REO sales, and law and case law.

The news today about Ally ceasing action on foreclosures and REO sales indicates to me that Ally certainly thinks it would liable to an REO buyer in the case of a MERs tainted foreclosure that got overturned.

The Wells addenda looked to me like a pretty standard attempt to escape disclosure laws (representations by the seller) on the grounds that the lender has little or no knowledge about the house itself (e.g., sewer line back-ups, noisy neighbors, etc).

But, as for the title, the REO seller is on the hook for that and the buyer does always have legal recourse on that ground.

It's all nomenclature...

A friend picked us up @ the trailhead after our walk, and on the drive home asked me what 'quantitive easing' meant?

When I told him it was just Orwellian double-speak for money-printing willy-nilly, he couldn't believe it (he doesn't do economics) and asked how can they do that?

They never called depressions that until the 1930's, they had all previously been called 'panics'.

They'll come up with some new soothing words for this financial debacle...

@Rob Dawg wrote on Mon, 9/20/2010 - 8:51 am (in reply to...)
reply tags
km4 wrote: How did NBER make the call the recession was over in June 2009 ?
They used these:
Macroeconomic Advisers’ monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)
IMO they saw an inventory replenishment and called it a recovery.

So what exactly is a Double Dip recession?
Robert Hall, chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research, has an idea of what one looks like but no precise definition. In Hall's view, a Double Dip is akin to a continuous recession that's punctuated by a period of growth, then followed by a further decline in the economy.

So I ask what if you don't have a punctuated by a period of growth with just further decline ?

That must be a depression Laughing out loud
Economics is hard

Pigged longtimelurker,

You and I are in agreement to the extent we don't believe the addenda to be proof against challenge. Confess I did not recall the 'empty box' example, particularly the declaration that one would have no recourse. Which leaves no air in my protestations.

NBER knew when the recession ended. They've seen CR's graphs and they can see where the blue stopped.

They just needed to wait a year to make sure CR didn't revise his graphs.

Those salivating over a Double Dip should do the same and wait until CR calls it.

Meanwhile, since I don't like to wallow in the Dooooooooooooooom!!! and since the economy is humming along and there's still a lot of activity out there, I better get to work. Have a good day, folks.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

They never called depressions that until the 1930's, they had all previously been called 'panics'.

panic -> depression -> recession -> downturn, soft patch, disgrowth?

We may never have another recession again after this one.

I see it doesn't say why.

I'd sure like to know.

I don't think that GMAC is the plaintiff in any of my defenses, but I will check.

So obviously Ireland is going to get a bail out loan.

But will they be stupid and actually try to pay it back, or smart like Greece and just pocket it?

Recession over. The drinks are on Ben!

Amigas y Amigos, may I start you off with one of our signature margaritas, before I take your order?

km4 wrote:

So what exactly is a Double Dip recession?

My humble opinion: "A Double Dip Recession is a multi-quarter return to a growing private economy that fails to achieve pre-recession macroeconomic levels before turning down again lower than the previous bottom."

burnside wrote:

You and I are in agreement to the extent we don't believe the addenda to be proof against challenge. Confess I did not recall the 'empty box' example, particularly the declaration that one would have no recourse. Which leaves no air in my protestations.

Thanks.

Liz, if you look at all of the states included in the halt it appears they all have judicial foreclosure. Cali, Nev. And Ariz are conspicuously absent (Trustee sales states).

It ended in June 2009 when the Greater Depression started.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Amigas y Amigos, may I start you off with one of our signature margaritas, before I take your order?

Mmmmm? Tastes like Kool-Aid. Did you stir this with a There is no spoon or your Just Pullin' Yer Leg?

Nemo wrote:

But will they be stupid and actually try to pay it back, or smart like Greece and just pocket it?

:Why do you hate ponzi finance?:

Mickey Mouse economy with Mickey Mouse statistics. Yeah, sure just wait for the next delivery of cheap goods to nearby shopping mall and it will be all good. It does not matter 50 million Americans have no meaningful skills whatsoever. Just skills honed to selling, shuffling stuff made by others.

"determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion"


translation...the peasants are starving in the field as most of the crops failed and those that didnt were half burned up in the war between serfdoms but dont worry

the nobles behind the walls in the manor are well fed and festing cause the remaining 25% of the crops were gathered by the oligarchs army and are safely stored behind the castle walls

NBER Recession declared ended just before midterms. Now let us ponder when would be the best time to declare the New Recession. After mid-terms or just before the 2012 elections so we can be 'saved' another time.

Must give the WH credit, they got the geese to sing in unison. NBER, BLS, etc. I do not believe that they want to take over the country they just need to avoid panic.

A panic will end the lulling effect of all this laborious statistical lying.

The SPY will go down in a flash crash of a minute or so. Say between 65-40.

Where will the panic begin. This is the unknown. The Black Swan

Q for Barry: What's your handicap now with all that practice, Mr President ?

Nemo wrote:

So obviously Ireland is going to get a bail out loan.

But will they be stupid and actually try to pay it back, or smart like Greece and just pocket it?

What would they pay it back with? I don't think their economy could pay it back that debt load anymore than the Wiemar Republic could. That didn't end well as you may recall.

mock turtle wrote:

the nobles behind the walls in the manor are well fed and festing cause the remaining 25% of the crops were gathered by the oligarchs army and are safely stored behind the castle walls

It's good to be Crown (or I know nussing! NUSSING!)

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Amigas y Amigos, may I start you off with one of our signature margaritas, before I take your order?

,rad Dawgma wrote:

Mmmmm? Tastes like Kool-Aid . Did you stir this with a There is no spoon or your Just Pullin' Yer Leg ?

You know why there weren't any good jokes about the Jonestown mass suicide?

...the punchline was too long

We are going to find out what the economy looks like sans Stimulus. I am curious

ARRA wasn't enough. $26 billion in state aid bill. $34 billion in UE benefits (thru november 30th). $30 billion in small business bill (and more in tax relief). All this just to keep the hull above water. Once the lame duck session is over the big govt teat in the sky goes dry (for now).

NBER announces this bs to you today, when Obummer is going to dazzle you with even more BS?

You are being played.

You would think they would hold on to these announcements until few days before the election.

I wonder what would happen in a country where virtually everything revolves around money, when the money loses it's meaning...

...stay tuned

Barry - "IT'S NOT MY FAULT & NEVER WILL BE NO MATTER WHAT I DO. UNDERSTAND ?"

ANTIPATHY wrote:

The SPY will go down in a flash crash of a minute or so. Say between 65-40.

Where will the panic begin. This is the unknown. The Black Swan

Everyone is waiting for word on any tax changes currently scheduled to revert Jan 1st. As long as 15% LTCG remains a possibility they'll hang in the market. If 20% becomes a certainty everyone is poised to be the first one out. Herd behavior will do the rest.

You might have a fraud argument, but I don't think you could go against Wells on a deed basis.

There is always title insurance written.

I'd like some specifics.

In spite of the banks trying to treat re transactions as interchangeable, they aren't.

In fact each defense is slightly different.

The question is, is the addendum "merged" into the closing or does it survive. I am perfectly willing to believe there are title problems, but I haven't come across any yet. The Florida Courts uphelp use of Mers as a Plaintiff some time ago, but they aren't being used as a Plaintiff any more here.

Frankly, so far, closing shenanigans are more likely to cause defenses for me & my clients. One of the worst for the banks, is failing to have the wife sign. I have a couple where the wives attended closing and offered to sign, but were rebuffed because it was too much trouble and the file would not have closed right then. The lenders and the mills have not done anything on those. Theoretically purchase money mtges in Florida trump homestead, but I am hoping for an exception where the spouses offers to sign and is told not necessary.

If the foreclosure went thru, the spouse would be partners with the bank. Then they could do a partition suit, if they were smart enough, which they are not.

It's quite possible that like Tricky Dick in 1971, their hand is being played, as in they have no other dodges possible...

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

...stay tuned

WTI is now the world's cheapest oil on the spot market.

The International Oil & Gas Newspaper

Don't think I have ever witnessed that., but I could be wrong---

ARRA wasn't enough. $26 billion in state aid bill. $34 billion in UE benefits (thru november 30th). $30 billion in small business bill (and more in tax relief). All this just to keep the hull above water.

That is why I found it difficult to credit the economy as "humming along"...

Throw down your CAP-gun and come out peaceful-like with your hands held high where I can see em', mister.

...and no funny business

bearly wrote:

Q for Barry: What's your handicap now with all that practice, Mr President ?

My handicap? There's Timmay, Larry, Ben. There's Nancy, Harry, Rahm...

CR:
I thought they'd wait longer because the committee usually waits until some of the key indicators have returned to pre-recession levels. This time no indicator has reached the pre-recession level, and some are still very low (like personal income less transfer payments).

Just a sign that the indicators have stopped carrying economic information reliably, and begun carrying information about who controls which elements of the policy establishment, and what that establishment's perception of necessity is.

Dang - Pigged again!

hc wrote:

Greenspan's "Conumdrum" will return; but in a bad way. If we think persistent high UE is bad now, just wait when "UE" is "solved" and you can't find any help in critical fields. Our economy cannot recover easily from that

So you think employers will refuse to hire older, qualified workers when they can't find younger ones? Why?

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

Just a sign that the indicators have stopped carrying economic information reliably, and begun carrying information about who controls which elements of the policy establishment, and what that establishment's perception of necessity is.

+1 B_R (even if you aren't a Taoist /ducks)

Actually it could be even worse than that. First you sell out bonds then you get the hell out of dollars, magnifying the effect by order of magnitudes. Two firewall doors separated by very narrow tunnel and huge crowd in the theater. And FED has less than 100 billion dollars worth of foreign currency reserves (even Poland has more). That is like one too small fire extinguisher in that theater.

"During a July 14, 2009, address in Warren, Mich., Obama said, “Now, my administration has a job to do, as well, and that job is to get this economy back on its feet. That's my job. And it’s a job I gladly accept. I love these folks who helped get us in this mess and then suddenly say, ‘Well, this is Obama’s economy.’ That’s fine. Give it to me. My job is to solve problems, not to stand on the sidelines and carp and gripe.”

At the time, the AP wrote, “With four simple words — ‘Give it to me’ — President Barack Obama took possession of the economy.”"

A year after claiming the economy as his own, Obama points finger at predecessor - TheHill.com

Byz wrote:

Just a sign that the indicators have stopped carrying economic information reliably, and begun carrying information about who controls which elements of the policy establishment, and what that establishment's perception of necessity is.

The numbers aren't just cooked, but served poached as well...

yagij wrote:

+1 B_R (even if you aren't a Taoist /ducks)

I'm still a Taoist! Good lord! Please don't confuse the fact that I like Xun Tse with becoming a hat-and-belt prattler!

WTI is now the world's cheapest oil on the spot market.

The International Oil & Gas Newspaper

Don't think I have ever witnessed that., but I could be wrong---

A huge wow moment for me, ANS has a positive differential to WTI in the spot market... just wow...

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

I'm still a Taoist! Good lord! Please don't confuse the fact that I like Xun Tse with becoming a hat-and-belt prattler!

Big smile

Maybe I am too close up to see, but I don't understand in this case why the judicial foreclosures would make a difference if there is
a title problem.

Florida has the marketable record title act. 30 years after the root of title the problems go (mostly) away. And sooner with other Statutes of Limitations.

If it affects GMAC, I doubt that the other lenders are clean of whatever it is.

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

Just a sign that the indicators have stopped carrying economic information reliably,

+1

Extreme care is warranted. "Trust but verify" needs be replaced with "doubt and double check." CR was quite correct to emphasize "personal income less transfer payments" does not jibe with any claim of a bottom in June 2009.

The odd few Americans not caught up in the demise of the dollar, ought to more resemble one-eyed jacks in a country full of financially blind people, it's good to be the king.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

And FED has less than 100 billion dollars worth of foreign currency reserves (even Poland has more). That is like one too small fire extinguisher in that theater.

What happened to the $450b that went to Eurobanks? Doesn't that count? Isn't that why it is there?

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

Just a sign that the indicators have stopped carrying economic information reliably, and begun carrying information about who controls which elements of the policy establishment, and what that establishment's perception of necessity is.

I don't think the information is so much unreliable as different, because the conditions are less favorable than in the past. Going forward we're looking at slower economic growth and higher unemployment than in previous recoveries, and there's nothing that policy can do to "fix" it.

Sebastian

I think it's pretty clear that the contraction ended a while back.

LoserBeachBum

First you sell out bonds then you get the hell out of dollars, magnifying the effect by order of magnitudes. Two firewall doors separated

Where could all go? Not enough Swiss Franc, Euro is a mess, Not enough AUD$, Ruble...No,
How many people know about Yuan?

No most will take their dollars out of the bank and put it in the mattress.

In glod we trust ?

Maybe not a title problem liz, maybe a note problem Wink Remember, Florida for sure will go after lenders that try to foreclose but can't produce a note or documentation that shows they have a right to foreclose. What if the notes are strewn hither and yon? A Realtor friend of mine was just informed that her mortgage company cannot produce an original note.

Sebastian wrote:

I don't think the information is so much unreliable as different

Wright Model - B update please ?

ANTIPATHY wrote:

No most will take their dollars out of the bank and put it in the mattress.

Many if not most don't have any extra dollars to put anywhere IMHO.

First you sell out bonds then you get the hell out of dollars, magnifying the effect by order of magnitudes.

I think the scenario relied on people selling their bonds and parking it in commodities as a store of value. This has the double effect of raising yield rates beyond what the fed can deal with and raising commodity values.

There is a very determined and concerted effort to paint a positive picture of the economy. The motivation is obvious, but inherent in this forced optimism is the potential for a big disappointment when/if the reality turns out differently.

ac wrote:

I think it's pretty clear that the contraction ended a while back.

And sans FedStim? Stealing any recovery from the future just to get to zero is not ending the contraction so much as moving it into the future with interest penalties.

We are a nation of Thousandaires, i'd imagine the average joe has somewhere in the single digits in savings.

Comrade Janosik

You are probably right. Hoovervilles and soup lines. By the way it is toughening in Duck Land. My sister who is on disability got her food bank food stolen (right in front of her) by a 20-30 year old.

Refuse to hire? More like age at some point does prevent you to work, even if you wanted to. Case in point is my uncle-in-law.

Most likely there will be a dollar flash crash followed by heavy central banks intervention. ECB, BOE and BOJ and China would issue fixed currency rates against dollar with strict currency exchange limits. The Forex markets would be effectively shutdown.

gruntled wrote on Mon, 9/20/2010 - 9:24 am
There is a very determined and concerted effort to paint a positive picture of the economy. The motivation is obvious, but inherent in this forced optimism is the potential for a big disappointment when/if the reality turns out differently.

Economic PSYOP
Psychological Operations (United States) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
because Economics is hard and Mericans are easily Puzzled

Sebastian wrote:

Going forward we're looking at slower economic growth and higher unemployment than in previous recoveries, and there's nothing that policy can do to "fix" it.

That's called moving the goalposts?

....well as a near term proposition, the s&p is breaking the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders and we could be lookin at a short covering rally. Course I appreciate you guys don't like TA stuff, so, I'm just sayin

Rob Dawg wrote:

And sans FedStim? Stealing any recovery from the future just to get to zero is not ending the contraction so much as moving it into the future with interest penalties.

I think that this wouldn't necessarily be true if it weren't for the fact that the stimulus money leaves the domestic economy so rapidly; if monetary velocity could be boosted with those stimulus dollars, they could be spent many times before they needed repayment. As it stands, the seem, on average, to leave the domestic economy almost a soon as they arrive...

gruntled wrote:

There is a very determined and concerted effort to paint a positive picture of the economy. The motivation is obvious, but inherent in this forced optimism is the potential for a big disappointment when/if the reality turns out differently.

(huddle on our own 23 yard-line, down 6 with 5 seconds to play in the game)

"Everybody go deep, and i'll try and find somebody open"

....................X........................

X...X..X...X.X.X.X...X...X..X..X

I'm trying to figure out if it's a coincendence that Sebastian stops posting for 6 months and suddenly starts posting again the exact moment nber calls the stop of the recession. Wink Big smile

In any case welcome back to the insane asylum!

And FED has less than 100 billion dollars worth of foreign currency reserves (even Poland has more). That is like one too small fire extinguisher in that theater.

Actually the Fed has every single "currency pegger country (direct or indirectly)" acting in cohort if this happens, so they do have a lot more ammo if push comes to shove.

However, the key to keeping these currency pegging country still in the "game", is our consumers. If, god forbid, our consumer stopped spending for extended periods, and over time we end up as "not so important" as a trading partner for volume and income share perspective... Then this mad-max currency run will happen. Of course, by that time, USA trade is no longer important in the world's POV, so it'll be nothing more than the Argentina Currency crisis again. (But tell that to the Argentinians that it's a "non-event" for the world.)

The economists aren't kidding when they say the USA consumers are the key.

poic wrote:

I'm trying to figure out if it's a coincendence that Sebastian stops posting for 6 months and suddenly starts posting again the exact moment nber calls the stop of the recession.

It's only been 2 months. It just seems like 6 months in this economy....

And sans FedStim? Stealing any recovery from the future just to get to zero is not ending the contraction so much as moving it into the future with interest penalties

Other than the dollar dropping helping ~15% of economy I don't see any tailwinds for H1 2011. All I see are headwinds.

Bill Clinton: "depends on what you definition of 'is' is."

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

We are a nation of Thousandaires, i'd imagine the average joe has somewhere in the single digits in savings.

Doubt it, more like half a dozen maxed out credit cards.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

ECB, BOE and BOJ and China would issue fixed currency rates against dollar with strict currency exchange limits. The Forex markets would be effectively shutdown.

Curious -- what do you think would be the next step after the panic full stop?

Refuse to hire? More like age at some point does prevent you to work, even if you wanted to. Case in point is my uncle-in-law.

Ah - I see. So you think this shortage will last a couple of decades. Long enough that the boomers are out of the picture. Well, it only takes 4-6 years to get a new crop of grads. I'm a 51 year old tail end boomer. Even if it takes 2 or 3 more years for the message to get through that America needs more software engineers and you see enrollments increase to meet the need, I could still be replaced by a young'un almost a decade before SS will let me retire fully.

Bah who needs a forex market...

Seriously. If it goes pop, it'll hurt, but it won't be the end of the world. The world and economies did exist before Forex Markets.

9 years on this day, an Argentine could have bought an ounce of eternal for 380 pesos, I wonder what it's worth today?

5,120 pesos.

But let's ignore it, and act as if it doesn't matter in the scheme of things financially today, as having one's head in the sand is a surprisingly comfortable position...

Cinco-X wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:

And sans FedStim? Stealing any recovery from the future just to get to zero is not ending the contraction so much as moving it into the future with interest penalties.

I think that this wouldn't necessarily be true if it weren't for the fact that the stimulus money leaves the domestic economy so rapidly; if monetary velocity could be boosted with those stimulus dollars, they could be spent many times before they needed repayment. As it stands, the seem, on average, to leave the domestic economy almost a soon as they arrive...

The Fed lacks any tools to increase the velocity of money. Okay, technically they can inflate so that people spend fast before losing value but that screws the banks. Tax policy can help but that isn't going to happen either. FedStim has obviously hit the wall of diminishing returns. No more multiplier effect. A comprehensive energy and industrial policy would help but take years to make a real difference. In the mean time it could at least boost morale and possibly support for any interim measures until then.

More likely the key is New York and London stock markets, the most important financial markets still. Americans and Brits talk down all others and try to keep their customers around the world investing in USA and UK. You could write two new bibles of Yanks and Brits talking down euro since 1990 (could not, would not, cannot, should not, will not last) Smile But the gig is up or will be soonish.

O worked himself into this jam. The Administration started with the 'glimmers of hope' and 'greenshoots' nonsense in march of 2009. Then the summer and fall of 2009 were spent spinning wheels on the health issue. O lost sight of the ball.

Ball = jobs

Happy Days Are Here Again. Um, 'kay. Rose Colored Glasses Tap Your Heels Together Three Times Kool-Aid Kabuki Theater

...fear, fear, fear - you guys sound like a bunch of bond traders

I could still be replaced by a young'un almost a decade before SS will let me retire fully.

The replacement cycle will vary by industry, new grads need a minimum of five years experience in the petroleum industry to begin to take on more than high end worker bee roles... and in the earth sciences those new grads are MS and up, while the engineering disciplines are primarily BS... so first need to graduate a new crop, then season them up if the capacity to graduate adequate numbers in the skills in demand exists...

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

That's called moving the goalposts?

Not to stretch the analogy too far but more like the goalposts are in the same place, we're just starting the drive from a lot worse field position.Smile

Seriously, though, the economy is moving forward, no sleight-of-hand or spin is involved. The problem is with policy-makers who might still think things are like they were before, with 3.5%-4% annual GDP growth and persistent 150,000+ monthly job creation as reasonable goals. IMO they no longer are, but that doesn't mean the economy isn't growing and it doesn't mean a new recession is imminent.

Sebastian

"ECB, BOE and BOJ and China would issue fixed currency rates against dollar with strict currency exchange limits. The Forex markets would be effectively shutdown."

and if you'd been to China you'd understand why the Chinese have no interest in doing that. Or are you saying the Chinese government would be interested in cratering their export industriies and fomenting an uprising.

For the life of me I still fail to understand why people have problems grasping what it means to be the reserve currency, consumer of last resort and currency of most debt world wide.

It's really not hard to grasp that we are all conjoined world wide right now.

The October Surprise came ten days too soon. This was a calculated political decision to improve democrat chances in November.

Of course, if the recession ended in June 2009, then it's doubtful that ANY of Obama's policies had anything to do with it. ARRA was passed in February 2009 and by the end of August, only 19% had been spent. And the small portion which was spent wouldn't have had any lasting economic impact in a couple of months.

If you're going to credit policy, it would have to be TARP, and I don't think anyone here, left or right, want to credit TARP. But watch Obama and Pelosi do their happy dance anyway.

CR, as usual, makes the right call. It is way too soon to tell. But the indicators do not need to reach pre-recession levels. The NBER measures recessions from peak to trough and expansions from trough to peak, rather than the CORRECT trend line to trend line. The problem with the "correct" measure is that the trend can (and does) change. This is why NBER takes a second best approach.

The reason pre-recession levels is not the correct gauge of recovery is that the peak represents the top of a boom/bubble where too many resources are employed. It will probably take 5 to 10 years to reach those levels, and well it should.

We are conjoined @ the hip financially, but they claim half of all currencies end up in divorce, so who knows?

Global poverty and the new bottom billion: Three-quarters of the World’s poor now live in middle-income countries
Institute of Development Studies - Global poverty and the new bottom billion: Three-quarters of the World’s poor live in middle-income countries

And 15% of Mericans are now in this group ( and probably more will be joining them soon )

So the Bush recession ended in June 2009. Gonna make it hard for the Democrats to blame Bush for the bad economy now and in 2012.

They should have done a Greece. Get all the bad shit cleared out right away and blame it all on the old guy.

If I quoted JMK @ you, would it p*ss you off......

Rob Dawg wrote:

The Fed lacks any tools to increase the velocity of money. Okay, technically they can inflate so that people spend fast before losing value but that screws the banks. Tax policy can help but that isn't going to happen either. FedStim has obviously hit the wall of diminishing returns. No more multiplier effect. A comprehensive energy and industrial policy would help but take years to make a real difference. In the mean time it could at least boost morale and possibly support for any interim measures until then.

All true, if I'm reading the situation correctly; I was just trying to provide a partial explanation for it. I believe it really is different this time....

Ah - I see. So you think this shortage will last a couple of decades. Long enough that the boomers are out of the picture. Well, it only takes 4-6 years to get a new crop of grads. I'm a 51 year old tail end boomer. Even if it takes 2 or 3 more years for the message to get through that America needs more software engineers and you see enrollments increase to meet the need, I could still be replaced by a young'un almost a decade before SS will let me retire fully.

Assuming the ratio of young college-eligible population to boomer about-to-retire is equal... Throw in the same "equal-ratio" assumption for boomers in China too while you're at it... Then your theory would pan out.

Otherwise:

At the end of the day, there'll be less laborers/engineers/doctors/key jobs in the end to service roughly the same population. Unless our productivity skyrockets, GDP has to drop.

But in the meantime, the Fed can and will continue to print $ and not see these. The buildup in hyperinflation "potential energy" would be phenomenal.

I only blame Bush for getting us into 2 endless wars and fomenting animosity amongst our peers and creating mercenary armies and such...

poic wrote:

I'm trying to figure out if it's a coincidence that Sebastian stops posting for 6 months and suddenly starts posting again the exact moment nber calls the stop of the recession.

Thinking about the wrong question again. Why aren't you wondering how I knew the recession was over a year before the NBER did?Smile

S.

SixOunces wrote:

The reason pre-recession levels is not the correct gauge of recovery is that the peak represents the top of a boom/bubble where too many resources are employed. It will probably take 5 to 10 years to reach those levels, and well it should.

A 1.7% annual increase in population and even modest 1% infltion "should" erase a 3.1% decline from the peak in far less than 2 years. Taking your 5-10 years represents a 15-35% decline in the standard of living for the average person.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

And FED has less than 100 billion dollars worth of foreign currency reserves (even Poland has more). That is like one too small fire extinguisher in that theater.

If push comes to shove, many of our friends and allies will gladly throw themselves under the crashing bus.

How would they manage without the US 'peace keepers'? How would they manage without the deepest and most liquid financial markets?

But wasn't 'extend and pretend' sort of predicated on the hope of decent (3.5-4%) growth in the future ? Without it, doesn't that sword of damocles of those unresolved asset prices just hang lower and lower, making the US economy *extremely *vulnerable to either another Black Swan or Tinfoil Hat a deliberate attack ?

Seriously, though, the economy is moving forward, no sleight-of-hand or spin is involved.

Q2 GDP = 1.6%

CBO estimate of ARRA impact on Q2 (six to nine months after OFFICIAL end of recession) 1.7% (low end) and 4.5% (high end)

IOW, under ANY scenario the CBO ran, GDP would have been NEGATIVE two to three quarters past end of recession without stimpack.

No sleight-of-hand?

"consumer of last resort'

Nobody talked about a spendthrift idiot, even a lot of spendthrift idiots like they were "consumers of last resort" until someone in the USA invented the term. Just like deficits do not matter or War on This or That. It is like pushing on a string.

Not many bars have gone bankrupt because of quite a lot of alcoholics quitting...

Give it a year or two, Bush didn't really get his 2nd endless war humming until 3rd year of his first term. These days Iran and North Korea are both looking good for the spot of tail-wags-the-dog.

SixOunces wrote:

The October Surprise came ten days too soon. This was a calculated political decision to improve democrat chances in November.

12-18 months of growth didn't do GHWB any good in '92, and I don't see it doing the Dems much good this year. Their only real hope is for the Repubs to self immolate; give it odds of at least 45% or greater....

"illusion of the shifting base"

"and just to rub it in, if the 10% raise comes first and the 10% cut afterwards, you're still the loser by 1%".......

energyecon wrote:

Who’s picking up the tab for the tea party? - CSMonitor.com

Obama Aides Weigh Bid to Tie the G.O.P. to the Tea Party - NY Times

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Liz, if you look at all of the states included in the halt it appears they all have judicial foreclosure. Cali, Nev. And Ariz are conspicuously absent (Trustee sales states).

Does that mean they're afraid they're being watched by someone who could theoretically hold them to account legally for any missteps, accidental or otherwise? Quest

Jonathon wrote:

If push comes to shove, many of our friends and allies will gladly throw themselves under the crashing bus.

How would they manage without the US 'peace keepers'? How would they manage without the deepest and most liquid financial markets?

It's not a question of whether the glass is half-empty or half-full on Wall*Street, but can you sell a gallon of liquidity out of it?

Hahahahahaha.........liquid until the computers go dark, apparently.

MB wrote:

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Liz, if you look at all of the states included in the halt it appears they all have judicial foreclosure. Cali, Nev. And Ariz are conspicuously absent (Trustee sales states).

Does that mean they're afraid they're being watched by someone who could theoretically hold them to account legally for any missteps, accidental or otherwise?

Can a legal eagle here answer if this is because trustee sales are civil processes but judicial sales expose them to criminal liability?

Apart from South Korea and maybe Japan, few Allies are that dependent on USA. Actually the American MIC is more dependent on foreign weapons sales than the other way around. NATO countries buy a lot of American weapons and even your 50 billion dollar yearly contribution to NATO is only 150 dollars per European NATO citizens. So the net contribution would be something like 50 dollars per European NATO country citizen. Are you telling those NATO countries could not whip out that extra fifty for D-FENS if USA quits?

ANTIPATHY wrote:

NBER Recession declared ended just before midterms. Now let us ponder when would be the best time to declare the New Recession.

Easy. The new recession will begin on January 1, 2011 and will become the baby left on the doorstep of the economic geniuses that will be the new Republican Congress. Of course, having decried all suggestion that anything Obama inherited was "Bush's fault," I'm sure there won't be a single peep out of their mouths about the new recession being "Obama's fault."

Another major source of tea party funding is the Tea Party Express, which poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the successful GOP primary senate campaigns of Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Joe Miller in Alaska.

Based in Sacramento, Calif., the Tea Party Express is run by Sal Russo, a Republican fund raiser and public relations guru who began his career working for Ronald Reagan. Russo is also the chief strategist for “Our Country Deserves Better,” a PAC formed to defeat Obama in the 2008 presidential election.

“As a pivotal player in the ‘tea party’ movement, Russo has helped drive its cause by raising millions of dollars and crafting caustic ads about its opponents,” reports the Los Angeles Times. “There's no question that Tea Party Express, the political action committee Russo runs out of his Sacramento-based firm, is the advertising muscle behind the tea party insurgency.... As the only tea party group making significant advertising buys, Tea Party Express has become one of the most potent forces in the protest movement.”
Who’s picking up the tab for the tea party? - CSMonitor.com

Q3 advance estimate comes out october 29th. CBO questimate for ARRA impact 1.5% (low end); 4.2% high end for Q3.

Something to keep in mind when Q3 GDP comes in sub 2% ... and this a full year after the end of the recession.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

Apart from South Korea and maybe Japan, few Allies are that dependent on USA.

You're deluded.

No country can afford total war along the lines of WW1 or WW2, everybody's broke already, and the reason countries have gone to war traditionally is to get the other guy's stuff, but as evidenced by Iraq, even the supposedly low-hanging fruit tends to be spoiled.

energyecon wrote:

“There's no question that Tea Party Express, the political action committee Russo runs out of his Sacramento-based firm, is the advertising muscle behind the tea party insurgency.... As the only tea party group making significant advertising buys, Tea Party Express has become one of the most potent forces in the protest movement.”

  1. Is the Tea Party Express a 527? Just curious. It doesn't pop up in the article.
  2. Is there any reason to think that politicians will stop being politicians anytime soon?

Cinco-X wrote:

I believe it really is different this time...

Yes. With all the Fed have done, the economy should be screaming upwards at 800 mph. Dragging wages, exports, imports, housing, infrastructure with it.

Instead, the government are practicing cargo cult economics, large piles of worthless Fed notes do not a recovery make.

Nice little summary - so once again why are tax cuts for the rich so important?

Middle class running as fast as it can Rex Nutting - MarketWatch

The share of total national income that was earned by the bottom 60% of households declined from 35% in 1975 to 27% in 2009. These 70 million families earned an average of $29,000 last year, 13% more than their parents did a generation ago.

In the meantime, the share earned by the top 5% jumped from 16% to 22%. These 6 million households earned an average of $295,000, up 79% in the past 35 years.

With their incomes stagnant for decades, many American families turned to debt to maintain their living standards. The debt burden of the American family rose from 53% of annual income in 1975 to more than 115% in 2009.

Why? The best squadron of MIG-29 were in the hands of Germany after the reunification for many years. Germans maintained those like clockwork. Russia is just now getting into the game again and all they mostly got is huge pile of scrap metal.

The most interesting development is the recently released joint effort of India and Russia to develop a fighter against the new F-22. Europe is not the front battlefield anymore.

Deflationary Jane wrote:

so once again why are tax cuts for the rich so important?

Because the rich want them.

Jonathan wrote:

I believe it really is different this time...

Yes. With all the Fed have done, the economy should be screaming upwards at 800 mph. Dragging wages, exports, imports, housing, infrastructure with it.

I was in denial for awhile after the collapse; I figured we'd just work our way through it as during previous recessions. Everything the govt. has done so far appears, at least to me, to have made either the immediate situation worse or made all future scenarios even worse (more worse? worser? Wink ).

Deflationary Jane wrote:

Nice little summary - so once again why are tax cuts for the rich so important?

Because whether you make $50,000 per year or $500,000 per year, you still live paycheck to paycheck. Just a different lifestyle. If a $500,000 wants to change his lifestyle it is significantly more expensive now. Try to sell a $2 million home in this market.

Not to mention someone making $500,000 tends to buy quite a bit more stuff from people making $50,000. Should they downsize, it will have a bigger negative impact on those making $50,000 than the $500,000 set.

Lastly, many people don't just "make" $500,000 per year. They make $1.2 million one year, than $50,000 the next. So yes, it can have a disproportional affect.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

Why?

It's not about defence, it's about hegemony.

We (Europe, Canada, Australia, etc.) benefit greatly from that hegemony.

For example, we all benefit from the US presence in the Persion Gulf region.

Is it just me, or does there seem to be an uptick in commentors shilling for the top 1%.

You are correct Rob Dawg. I misstated my thoughts.

It will probably take only a year or two to reach pre-recession levels of GDP, but it will take us far longer to return to the long term growth trend in the post-war period. We would have to have GDP growth well in excess of the long run mean to recover what we've lost. As of 2Q10, we are 9% below the trend.

I fear there may be a flattened kink in GDP.

They'll come up with some new soothing words for this financial debacle...

The Recession ended, and we've begun a Screwing. (After all who doesn't like a...)

You can sue to reestablish the note.

In fact, I have a commercial foreclosure, where they can't find the note.

Atty died, dad disabled, etc, etc.

If nobody protests the thing about the note, or appeals it, the Plaintiff wins.

Also, the foreclosure mills are authorized to issue title insurance policies, which effectively cover stuff up unless somebody makes a stink. And yes, I told my underwriter that this was a really bad idea, and got no where.

Cough..Cough..bulsh*t cough...not in southwest Ohio. The real estate markets may recover in 7 - 10 years. Who knows wen jobs will come back.

My clients are mumbling about the disconnect between their lying eyes and the media.

And without any stimulous from me!!

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

shilling for the top 1%.

The top 1 percent are just flesh and blood like the rest of us. And we all want the same thing: We want to get to have a decent amount of our money to live on, and the top 1 percent want to have a decent amount of our money to live on.

Cinco-X wrote:

Everything the govt. has done so far appears, at least to me, to have made either the immediate situation worse or made all future scenarios even worse

I suspect that if you want to make any headway at all predicting this economy, then you need to get 10 people in a room and wargame the sucker.

There isn't going to be much finesse, instead key pieces will be sacrifices and situations will either remain the same, or change drastically.

Debt is Europe is a situation that has been kept stable by drastically increasing amounts of support by the ECB. Something will break in the next few months. How does a default in Europe impact the US and China situation?

Don't see how this is a difference.

Need to have mtges Satisfied/Deeds of Trust, ummm, reconveyed?

McCollum raided some foreclosure firms for bad assignments; don't know how that will end up.

The State Atty's offices have been totally swamped with fraud cases, they have no personnel to go after this, I don't think

Don't you need assignments in Cali?

LoserBeachBum wrote:

Are you telling those NATO countries could not whip out that extra fifty for D-FENS if USA quits?

LoserBeachBum, the Ugly (Anti-)American.

Hey CR... I was wondering what your blue shaded areas on your plots meant? I was under the impression that they indicated recessions. If so, you have the current recession already ended, when in fact you have just implied on this post that some factors still exist that may not indicate the recession has ended. Therefore, shouldn't your current data on any plot still be shaded in blue?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

I only blame Bush for getting us into 2 endless wars and fomenting animosity amongst our peers and creating mercenary armies and such...

such a benign administration.

Hey, I had a condo for sale since April 2010. Let the contract expire in July. Figured we'd be here for a few more years. The very first viewers came back a couple of weeks ago, offering a very close offer, which we accepted. We have a contract and will close on 30 Sep.
We have taken a rental with a 6 month lease and month to month after that. We feel very lucky to have gotten out of the condominium life. Such a misjudgment on our part. Never again. Condos are a big mistake for the occupants. Markets here in Maine are not yet as bad as many sunshine states - but it is coming.

Login or register to post comments
Syndicate content