Bank runs are a bit meaningless when there is a conspicuous printing press in the back.

Venezuela goes all in to prove once again that planned economies dont work.... Wonder how long it will be before Hugo Chavez is hanging upside down in a public square ala Mussolini...

Venezuela introduces Cuba-like food card - Venezuela - MiamiHerald.com

Shadow, it was worse than that. No public square. It was a gas station.

Agreed. Trichet doesn't like dealing with dirty Irish extortionists - so uncivilized, not like his fellow enarques.

Gnome, we went into Amsterdam for recitals or to the Concertgebouw. Museums also. I thought the coffee and pastries and confections were delicious pretty much everywhere. Don't recall Rene's, though.

Should say I didn't altogether avoid the Melkweg.

Rene's Croissants - Amsterdams Finest Sweet And Croissant Place. Find Them on Damstraat And Beyond! | Our Amsterdam Holidays

burnside wrote:

Should say I didn't altogether avoid the Melkweg.

My buddy and I spent a bit of time trying to find the Dampkring one afternoon.
We stopped to check our map, looked up to find we were right in front of it.

That is what all central planners say.

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

Hugo Chavez is proving that economies planned by corrupt, egomaniacal dictators don't work.

This time it's different

In the good old days of 1950's and 1960's US taxation was even more harsh than in Sweden today. The top marginal rate was whopping 90 percent.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

The top marginal rate was whopping 90 percent.

Of course, nobody really paid that rate.

mp wrote:

Delusions Of Recovery - NYTimes.com

His prescriptions are all wrong, but he's spot on with the diagnosis. Great stuff in that short piece.

Thanks for the Krugman link mp.

HomeGnome wrote:

Ever been to Rene's in Amsterdam?
Great coffee and tasty pastries.

Is that what they call it now? Thank you

All these stats and interpretation of stats and opinions of stats make my brain feel zombieized:

http://s874.photobucket.com/albums/ab306/wj_emm/?action=view&current=zombiedog.jpg

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Charting the effects of stimulus doesn't interest me much.

It's important to Conjure. He'll be using data like that to make his call.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

is prescriptions are all wrong, but he's spot on with the diagnosis. Great stuff in that short piece.

Yup. he forgets Delusion #3 - his own. That more stimulus fixes it.

Why is everyone (PK included) so afraid of default??

It's there for a reason. To make prolonged BS like what's happening now end quickly.

mp,

Any FX calls lately? Oh, and what was that comment I missed the other day about "the next few weeks"??

Interesting Times wrote:

Why is everyone (PK included) so afraid of default??

I'd think that it is the same reason that ex-Soviets were afraid of the S.U. collapsing. There is a lot of sweat and ideological equity in the current arrangement among the older/establishment.

mp wrote:

And so will Mr. Market.

Mr. Market is on an extended sabbatical leave. Standing in for him is his deaf and blind cousin Mr. Speculative Fever.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Ah, okay... wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something important. Not that THAT isn't important, but I too feel that September & October will not be pretty.

idk,, we said that last summer, too. I do remember that.

yagij wrote:

Why is everyone so afraid of default??

Because those assclowns are the bondholders, that's why. It is the pensions that ultimately get killed.

Interesting Times wrote:

Why is everyone (PK included) so afraid of default??

I think its because THEY'll lose money - or think they will. That's why I feel that journalists at places like NPR, slate.com, salon.com, theatlantic.com who one would normally expect to pick up the cudgels on behalf of the ripped-off have so singularly failed this time, leaving it to the likes of rollingstone ( I mean, c'mon, Rolling Stone?) and the various blogs, including this one to nail the issues.

A discussion with my 68 year old lawyer buddy, pretty much an unreformed lefty, still resonates with me - I said - "bond-holders should have taken the appropriate hit during the banking meltdown."

He says: "Don't pension funds hold these bonds?"

The light went on in my mind - **the bugger means HIS pension fund **- as I spluttered and twisted to answer that.. I couldn't help but see what a freakin' tangled web of cross-conflicted self-interests exist here.

Edit : bankersorterrorists got there wayyyy ahead of me. Wayyyy to go.

Have a good evening.

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

idk,, we said that last summer, too. I do remember that.

Yeah, you're right. Both Sept and Oct had some good downdrafts but were basically hiccups in the bear market rally. That things really had some legs, didn't it?

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

I honestly don't understand why we don't have more of a generational war in this country than we do.

I do, but I see college-aged kids on a daily basis. None of them seem to be gearing up for war.

yagij wrote:

I honestly don't understand why we don't have more of a generational war in this country than we do.
I do, but I see college-aged kids on a daily basis. None of them seem to be gearing up for war.

I was hanging out with some people in Egypt 15 years my junior this spring for a bit, and it was really nice to hear them viciously beat up Generation X (my generation) over what we've done. The way I see it, it was people all my age (the mid-30s mortgage brokers, appraisers, and developers) bending the rules. Hell, I was one of them.

I would be really pleased to see a nice '60s-style generation war upcoming. I think it would be good for the country. In the 60s....lots of the racism, sexism, and hierarchical crap was purged out of the country. This time, let's see the greed purged out. One may say that's impossible, but imagine what was thought to be impossible in the 1950s.

To follow up on my college-aged student comment, I can easily relate to what this commenter wrote on ZH:

I have a good many non traditional aged students in class, maybe as many as a third. I have a retired nurse who is 71 years old, in her wheel chair. I have a couple others I don't know their ages, but they have handicap accommodations that I must make that are age related. I have cops looking for a pay raise and moms looking to better their situations. Ex-navy, unemployed, told me point blank she is sitting out her unemployment in class, she isn't even going to try to find work. Another ex-navy, disabled for life after an explosion (seems the boiler rooms blow up all the time and we don't hear about it). University looks really different than it did (okay, I'll say it, a little like a hospital room). Non traditional students have their own union and services, etc.
.
It is going to be hard to sort who is who in these stats. But I'll tell you what, right this second, enrollments are waaaay up. We have had increases in student population anywhere from 6-9% every semester for the past 2 years. It is the only thing saving our asses. I am teaching a mass class to accommodate demand, ran out of seats pretty early, could have taken more if we could have found a bigger room.
.
I see this wave going for a while. People are living off Pell grants, food stamps and student loans along with the unemployment in some cases. Not a bad strategy if you are in trouble and are decent with school. Just hope the debt does not paralyze them to the point that the job they get afterwards cannot pay back the debt. That is the trick. As long as the money flows, they will make this choice, if they can. Never before have we had so many applicants to our graduate program that already have 1,2, or even 3 masters degrees.
.
It's weird out here.

Welcome to Greece circa 1990-2000.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

I doubt our pension was mismanaged, Still, you first. Take your own pill.

I have no pension. I am 100% self-employeed. My pill was taken when I was laid off back in 2002. I have never looked at the concept of "employment" and "loyalty" the same. My pill was bitter but cured me of my delusions quickly.

his time, let's see the greed purged out. One may say that's impossible, but imagine what was thought to be impossible in the 1950s.

When the gods would curse someone, they grant what he wishes.

Or as St. Teresa of Calcutta put it: More bitter tears are shed over prayers answered than prayers denied.

Why do people imagine that some radical departure is going to save their bacon? You must not have lived through what actually happens.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

When the gods would curse someone, they grant what he wishes.
Or as St. Teresa of Calcutta put it: More bitter tears are shed over prayers answered than prayers denied.
Why do people imagine that some radical departure is going to save their bacon? You must not have lived through what actually happens.

I've doubled my net worth (more than doubled) since September 1, 2008. This sequence of events has been awesome for me. I would like some more volatility, please.....

I am 100% self-employeed.

If there is a radical departure and you are self-employed as a gravedigger, you might make out OK.

Are you strong enough to take people down from meat hooks?

Believe me, no quick moves and steady as she goes is best.

I am trying to see, but am clouded by my own self interest.

How unusual.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

I've doubled my net worth (more than doubled) since September 1, 2008. This sequence of events has been awesome for me. I would like some more volatility
How wonderful for you. We are all rejoicing for your sake.

I was referencing your self-interest comment there, Pavel.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Or as St. Teresa of Calcutta put it: More bitter tears are shed over prayers answered than prayers denied.

Now you've done it. If you have to raise ( the fraudulent, fanatic ) Mother Teresa to buttress your arguments, its the religious equivalent of Godwin's Law - reductio ad Teresum.

A question. Where did the convention of stockholders wiped out, depositors protected, bondholders given a haircut come from?

Is there some reason depositors are sacrosanct, bondholders less so, stockholders held entirely to account? Is it votes? Is it monied interests?

In the present case, bondholders seem to be beating the 'model'. But where did this model originate?

If you have to raise ( the fraudulent, fanatic ) Mother Teresa

He's not an authority on the subject.

BTW, I too, by your definition no doubt , am a fanatic.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

If we don't manage to restrain this natural instinct and think in terms of our community of interest we are facing dismal prospects. Just look around you.

Too much peace gives birth to conflict and vice versa. View it as a pendulum or some Eastern Yin/Yang. Either way, I agree with your quote that "prayers answered" are just as much of a curse (if not more so) than prayers unanswered.
.
However, War and his brethren are coming. Prayers, Pensions, and Powers That Be be dned. It will be beautiful and ugly. May we live in interesting times indeed.

Kruggles has finally shown us how long it takes to recover from poisoning. Somebody buy him a to make him feel better. Then warn him that if he wants to ride in the then he has to bring his own this time.

Seriously, I found his "it's the rate of stimulus not the amount of stimulus" to be simplistic in the extreme.

Mother Teresa to buttress your arguments

I wasn't buttressing an argument.

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

My community is outside of the US. The view is sunnier here.

What be happening ain't weather, it's climate. You got climate where you live? Then you'll feel what's coming no doubt.

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

Guess the "depositors protected" component of it was the FDIC in the 30s. Am I following you?

There's that. I'm curious as to how the convention arose. We treat it here as a convention. Perhaps there's no ready answer - or perhaps it's one of our peculiarities at HCN and a few other places, and no convention at all - negotiable on a case-by-case basis.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Get religion.

Respectfully...

Rob Dawg wrote:

What be happening ain't weather, it's climate. You got climate where you live? Then you'll feel what's coming no doubt.

I agree, but I think a lot of it is driven by demographics (obvious, I know). The trick is to drop yourself in countries with favorable demographics and expanding credit markets, or at least find ways to work there from afar. Less "climate change" there, as you imply.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Secular culture is self-defeating and self-doomed.

Sounds like a former Soviet resident to me......

pavel.chichikov wrote:

He's not an authority on the subject.

BTW, I too, by your definition no doubt , am a fanatic.

I have no idea what you are - more power to you to exercise your 1st amendment rights here. When it comes to you exercising the level of influence that Mother Teresa did - and may that day never arise - then its a different ballgame.

If he ( I'm pretty sure you mean Christopher Hitchens not the other HE ) is factually wrong then dispute it. But we already got to reductio ad Teresum so what's really the point eh ?

Invisible means of support are hardly the answer to our dilemna, but many will turn to it out of desperation.

yagij wrote:

Be it God, your soul, your will, your boss, or Nature. Madness is born from those controls and influences real or imaginary. I've become too tainted by Eastern thought as I've gotten older to take one side of the other.

It's possible that the attributes of "soul" or psyche that are necessary to develop run contrary to natural evolutionary programming... consider how diametrically opposed the virtues of amoral social darwinism and the virtues of Christianity stand, for example, in dichotomy of master/slave morality that Nietzsche pointed toward and yelled at... one is based on scientific understanding of the animal kingdom - so it is ideal for man if he purely is an animal.

Rob Dawg wrote:

The commentariat knows exactly where it comes from; Uncle Sugar.

"We're from the Government, and we're here to help!"

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

one is based on scientific understanding of the animal kingdom

I don't think that is a fair description of Christianity.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

[C]onsider how diametrically opposed the virtues of amoral social darwinism and the virtues of Christianity stand, for example, in dichotomy of master/slave morality that Nietzsche pointed toward and yelled at... one is based on scientific understanding of the animal kingdom - so it is ideal for man if he purely is an animal.

Is that intended to be a brief summation of Nietzche?

Rob Dawg wrote:

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
The trick is to drop yourself in countries with favorable demographics and expanding credit markets...
That leaves you with what... 3? One of them just had a big earthquake and one exists only in my head.

Take the globe in your office and look on the other side of it than most people on this board do (I know, it's tough). Trace a line between Istanbul, Tel Aviv, Cairo, Riyadh, Dubai, through the Ganges Valley, and Hong Kong, then down to Jakarta, and Sydney. Add Brazil in that as well.

That's the half of the world's population we all sort of forget about.

bearly wrote:

I'm on record for the markets to finish dead flat tomorrow
On no volume.

What's your profit-making angle?

pavel.chichikov wrote:

I'm a Catholic, a cooperator in Opus Dei

I am a level 10 Atheist. But I do enjoy exchanging ideas without pre-conceived biases.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Your good opinion of me compared to that is a bit attenuated in importance.

OkeyDokey. Noted. Now lets move on.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Mine goes to 11.

11 was too militant for me.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

But this above was not a bright thing to say. I claim no influence over anything.

Bejesus, Mother of all that's holy.. ALRIGHTTTTTTTTTTTTTT... I heard you the first time. You are pissed. I get that. Now can we move on.

Rob Dawg wrote:

I'm on record for the markets to finish dead flat tomorrow.

Asia opens in an hour.

Yes pavel,

It's no fun being lumped in with blind faith, and there isn't a damned thing you can do about it.

nova wrote:

I have been reading about the Russian Revolution. There are some interesting parallels. They are not unique to Imperial Russia. In many ways I think they the same type of events and mindsets are common to all collapsing, or in danger of collapsing empires.
Unequal income distribution
Justice and law become a tool of the moneyed class.
The masses believe a change is needed in a vague but general way
The ruling class feels threatened
The ruling class begins to look backward at past glories and tries to associate themselves with those triumphs in the mind of the masses
The ruling class feels, paradoxically, invulnerable to change. TBTF
There is a growing disconnect between the ruling class and its servants at the actual governing (not policy makers) level and below.

All of these things were subsequently characteristic of Soviet Russia, yes?

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

In the 60s....lots of the racism, sexism, and hierarchical crap was purged out of the country.

Sadly I would have to argue that it was just driven underground. Much of it still exists.

Yes pavel,

It's no fun being lumped in with blind faith, and there isn't a damned thing you can do about it.

Funny, I think of atheists as people blinded by a kind of faith, and believers as much more skeptical.

Nova, an important difference between the US of the early 21st century and Imperial Russia of the early 20th is the extraordinary backwardness of Russia. Even in the late 20th century there were areas of Russia that with some differences could have come out of previous centuries.

I was asked once by a high ranking Soviet journalist who had been widely traveled to compare the Soviet Union in terms of development with some other country. I ventured Turkey, and he laughed and said: Try Senegal.

All of these things were subsequently characteristic of Soviet Russia, yes?

Pretty much so, "which is worse..."

Rajesh wrote:

So what's the opinion: Bank run or no bank run?

Neither will be as big or as destructive as the opium running conducted to sell the crop before the Taliban return to power and shut it all down. After that there will be the refugees running.

What a colossal, colossal disaster the Afghan invasion is, was, and will be.

To keep it in perspective, one must remember that the seemingly easy, quick, and cheap invasion of Afghanistan opened to path to invading Iraq by bolstering the belief that it would be easy, quick, and cheap.

Streitfeld: Grim Housing Choice

Ciao. Best wishes to all.