ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declines in August
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 09/03/2010 - 7:24am (372 comments)
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Is not building houses non-manufacturing?
TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT!!!!
Unemployment rate up to 9.6 percent, but private sector gains jobs - CSMonitor.com
In another Labor Department report this week, productivity in the private sector fell for the second quarter. That may be a sign that employers are reaching some limits in their efforts to do more with as few workers as possible.
TLT -1.48 (-1.41%)
UNRECOVERY SUMMER!
So we're expanding! Yea! All sh#t's fixed now! Also, where's my
Doc Holiday wrote:
9.5% is the new 5% ...
Elvis wrote:
"The reason I pulled you over, is you crossed the double negative line, and i'll need to see your license and registration."
In the big picture, it could also be a sign that the benefits of accessible, powerful computers are starting to level off in terms of actual worker productivity.
Stop me before I'm accidentally insightful.
I mentioned that the front of the Times cited a very old connection of mine who is now Prez of MAPI.
He graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University in 1972 and received an M.A. and a Ph.D. from Indiana University.
reading his bio I read that Dr. Duesterberg is co-author of two books and numerous magazine, journal, and op-ed articles on international trade, information technology, and global economics. He also edited and wrote chapters in two books: Riding the Next Wave: How This Century Will Be a Golden Age for Workers, the Environment, and Developing Countries, (Hudson Institute; 2001)
- on second thought I'm not sure I've ever met this guy!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
"No, officer, you didn't not pull me over. Now be on your way."
Service Companies in U.S. Expand Less Than Forecast - Bloomberg
Sales at Limited Brands Inc., owner of the Victoria’s Secret chain, climbed 10 percent, more than the 7 percent average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Retail Metrics Inc.
U.S. consumer re-emerges - The Globe and Mail
Doc Holiday wrote:
Gov't cheese makes people want to feel sexy.
Doc Holiday wrote:
Can't wait!!
A friend had to go through faux-shopping exercises, when re-education camping, and she told me it's no fun just going through the motions.
Non-mfg ISM declining does NOT surprise me one bit - we are seeing a real transformation in the economy - office & 'services' automation is doing to non-mfg what plant automation did to mfg & farm machinery did to agriculture. It is putting increased pressure on firms - less input required to produce the same level of benefits. They interpret this as 'weakness'.
It is easy to quantify production out put in mfg - just count the pounds or units produced. Services are far more difficult - outputs are usually measured by inputs consumed [labor hours & billings]... if services are getting more efficient [and I think they are] you could see a significant decline in labor hours consumed & billings even as 'benefits provided' increase [but do to the weird nature of service industries won't be accurately accounted for].
If you don't touch the product or don't spend time in front of the customer you should be worried [that is if you need to eat].
Looks more and more like yesterday's blowout number was an outlier.
I thought the participation rate would move up this month for technical reasons. I was guessing maybe 0.2% to 0.3%. The teen employment issue I identified happened, but apparently the unemployment benefits extension was less than I expected.
The reported increase was 0.1% in the participation rate, but the actual was 0.174% (because of rounding of both July and August numbers). That makes more sense to me - just like the unemployment rate was almost 9.7% (just missed on the rounding).
best to all
greenchutes wrote:
See my take - I think it is the opposite - only that the 'metrics' don't measure it right [confuse activity w/ results].
Got work to do - catch up w/ you all later for BFF.
Doc Holiday noted:
When daddy can no longer afford to go to the strip club, mommie has to compensate ...
Retail sales: Retailers report surprising August sales gains - latimes.com
Weaker players last month included teen retailers Hot Topic Inc. and Aeropostale Inc., which posted declines of 3.7% and 1%, respectively; and Gap Inc., which saw flat ...... ????
MB wrote:
Explains the participation rate too...
Time to non-manufacture. Later.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Rounding
Take Care, dryfly.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
The trend in revisions has finally come around to improving side so 9.6% will probably hold due to the same rounding.
Any gain from computerized productivity is offset by blog-browsing.
MB wrote:
Some of us have to take care of ourselves....
MB wrote:
AGREE!
MB wrote:
Dow Corning
& Pfizer 
FTW!
Doc Holiday noted:
MB wrote:
If this was true, wouldn't there be an increase in in-home pole sales?
This is another index, like the AIA billings, that should set 50 = 0 to make it clear exactly what they are saying.
Doc, are you having an inappropriate relationship with yourself?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Mommies can do wonders with them bedposts.
It is putting increased pressure on firms - less output required to produce the same level of benefits. They interpret this as 'weakness'.
Did you see mp's post yesterday (using fed st. louis graphs) showing DECLINING productivity?
{conjures up vision of bedknobs and broomsticks}
bearly wrote:
A substantive meeting of the minds!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Now this is getting to be a thread with some serious redeeming social value!
"We're down 50 percent in sales from what we used to be," said a worker at Gifts From The Heart/Timeless Treasures
If Prop 19 passes will the Feds simultaneously fight the law and count the agricultural production in the GDP?
wally wrote:
Elvis wrote:
The bigger question is, Is bulldozing houses non-manufacturing?
glimmerman wrote:
It certainly is a valued added process.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
As long as we can run deficits of 1 - 1.5T per year, 9.5% is no problem.
And no, that is not a snark. 9.5% unemployment is entirely manageable if we can finance the revenue-expense gap via debt.
The Unemployment Rate Rises and That's the Good News - The Curious Capitalist - TIME.com
It's a question my buddy the Federal Law Enforcement narc and I talk about, in regards to the National Parks in California-which is Federal land, and it doesn't matter what happens with Prop 19, it'll still be illegal there, or will it?
glimmerman wrote:
Didn't we just prove that 9.5% annual house price appreciation is entirely manageable as long as we could finance the income gap via debt?
Oxtail wrote:
But will it remain intact?
I was thinking tack, as in what you put on a debt horse.
black dog wrote:
I still maintain that this is an important data point. Productivity has rolled over.
That means a lower SP500 when it works through the system.
Also, real hourly compensation is down 1% year/year. That's not good news.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It's illegal to cultivate cabbages on park land. And just as destructive. I care not a puff about the weed, it's the habitat damage and violence that pisses me off.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Absolutely appears that way. And nothing is impossible when Uncle Sam's got your back and can borrow almost for free!
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
That's why there's no problem with CalPERS IRR of 7.75% ongoing. What could happen?
,rad Dawgma wrote:
That is by far the biggest issue. You know those nice fuits and veggies the nation eats that are grown in the Central Valley?
You wouldn't believe what noxious chemicals the cartel uses to eradicate foilage in gardens in the back of beyond, that gets into creeks and then the river, and then into your bloodstream via a blood orange, you have no idea.
By federal law, it will still be 100% illegal everywhere. "Legalization" is a misnomer. States aren't sovereigns, and the 10th amendment is just as much toilet paper as the 4th.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
CalPERS is preparing to loan the State of California bond money that will be used... wait for it... to cover the State contribution to CalPERS shortfall.
Duke of Con Dao, the Hudson Institute must be distinguished from Dr Michael Hudson, the Renegade Economist
On the edge with Max Keiser: Michael Hudson on Junk Economics and Feudalism « Dandelion Salad
Rob Dawg wrote:
I second that one-- trashing the environment by weed growers is a huge problem.
And of course, a lot of redneck mendo boys grow, and love guns (a large source of my venison supply).
I don't know, movements have a way of getting out of hand. (see the Berlin Wall)
Rob Dawg wrote:
It's an excellent test of the robustness of deficit spending. Then again these paper games bought Social Security 20+ years of supposed solvency too, back in the early Section 8 years.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The key is the Chinese won't lend directly to the individual. But they will to Uncle Sam, as the two are locked into a symbiotic death spiral.
10 years from now our national debt could be 25T with the Chinese holding half of it and the petro exporters holding most of the rest, and unemployment running at >8% for all of it. This status quo could be sustainable for years.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Entropy must be involved somewhere with this----
??? Despite the deceleration in growth, business activities and new orders remained entrenched in an expansion cycle, analysts at Briefing.com said.
"This was a soft report that further points to slow growth ahead. Consumers may be spending but it doesn't look as if they went out and blew the bundle on their summer vacation," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.
==> What is this mean? blew the bundle
greenchutes wrote:
It'll be tested out of existence eventually but until then I don't think FedGov has the will to fight this one.
It's just coiling up to jump that much higher.
,rad Dawgma wrote:
(reaches into front right pocket full of empty, and transfers to left front pocket full of nothing)
Doc Holiday wrote:
Forest. Trees.
That comment falls in the trees category.
Revisiting the previous thread (for some of us, it's still early on the left coast).
Did a statistical analysis of the effect of revisions on Non-Farm Payroll Employment numbers and the revisions indicate an awful lot of noise in the original data.
The standard devation of the impact of final revisions (as compared to unrevised) on the month-to-month payroll change is 79,000.
Pretty significant when people get excited over the "consensus" being missed by a few 10's of thousands.
Can growth continue with 99ers coming off the board and ARRA on the wane?
CBO estimate of ARRA impact on GDP
Q2 low estimate 1.7%, high estimate 4.5%
Q3 low estimate 1.5%, high estimate 4.2%
Q4 low estimate 1.1%, high estimate 3.6%
greenchutes wrote:
Nobody has the stomach for a fight. I can't see the Democrats making "keep cannabis illegal!" an issue and the Republicans are divided. Even this blog's favorite right-wing Facebook commentator came out and said law enforcement has better things to spend their time on than arresting potheads.
greenchutes wrote:
But the reality is it can't be enforced except for extreme situations.
We already have the highest prison population on Earth, and cost is starting to become a factor, as it is starting to be a diminishing return on housing slaves.
picosec wrote:
It's the way it's always been. Jokers sit around arguing about which raindrop will reach the bottom of the window first.
They bet on it.
Just like here.
How many quatloos are you in for?
adornosghost wrote:
Taxpayers are getting real close to the edge. Turns out the Camarillo city manager didn't earn the $260k originally reported but $324k. This for a city of 68,000.
This is typical ponzi-finance.
Why would this surprise anyone living in a ponziconomy?
adornosghost wrote:
Hey now! Prisoners have 3 meals, health care, and a cot. Don't be comparing them to graduate assistants and PhD students. Housing slaves is still very profitable!
,rad Dawgma wrote:
Do the sans-jobs take their ire out locally on hack politicians raiding the kitty, it's not like they can lash out against Wall*Street?
Take a look at the boarded-up store fronts on Main St., then check out the country club parking lot....
Over the past month, Audi was up 14 percent, Mercedes-Benz up 15 percent, Porsche was up 33 percent, and Jaguar sales were up 62 percent—all versus Augus
Rob Dawg wrote:
Skimming the rubes is where the real money is. Then again the concept of 'city manager' is pretty flawed from the outset.
Rob Dawg wrote:
ac wrote:
It's more like a "Poortemkin Village", a facade that works, because nobody looks beyond the front.
Value of California's properties falls 1.8% to $4.4 trillion - Los Angeles Times
More of the shine of the Golden State's real estate market lost a bit more of its luster as the total value of California's properties fell for the second year in a row — and for the second time since records were first kept in 1933 at the depths of the Great Depression.
Forty-eight of California's 58 counties saw totals fall
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
He's retiring this week on a quarter mil pension and free medical.
Rob Dawg wrote:
And CA retirement laws apparently are like declawed cats. No clawbacks possible!
MB wrote:
Now only if we could get the mommies to agree, we could get 100% consensus.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
,rad Dawgma wrote:
The usual reasons for leaving...
He's got a son just starting high school?
CounterPunch: Tells the Fact, Names the Names
At issue is the concept of capital. Does money that is made by short-term, computer-driven financial trades qualify as “capital formation” and hence deserving of tax breaks? Are the billions of dollars of “earnings” reported by Wall Street speculators to be taxed at the low 15 per cent “capital gains” rate? That is only a fraction of the income-tax rate that most workers pay – on top of which is piled the 11 per cent FICA wage withholding for Social Security and Medicare that all workers have to pay on their salaries up to the cut-off point of about $102,000. (This cut-off frees from this tax the tens of millions of dollars that hedge fund traders pay themselves.) Or should these trading gains – a zero-sum activity where one party’s gain is, by definition, another’s loss (usually one’s customers) – be taxed more highly than poverty-level income of workers?
A short while ago the Blackstone hedge fund’s co-founder, Stephen Schwarzman, characterized the attempt to tax short-term arbitrage trading gains at the same rate that wage-earners pay as analogous to Adolph Hitler’s invasion of Poland in 1939. It is a class war against fraudsters and criminals – an unfair war as serious as World War II. In Schwarzman’s apocalyptic vision the Democrats are re-enacting the role of Adolph Hitler by mounting a fiscal blitzkrieg to force billionaires to pay as high a tax rate as workers. Are not Wall Street firms doing “God’s work,”as Goldman Sachs chairman Lloyd Blankfein, put it last fall? And if they are, then are not those who would tax or criticize Wall Street “God-killers”?
Boehner on Jobs Report: 'President Obama's Agenda Represented 'Change' Once -- Now it is Time for Him to Change Course' - Standard Newswire
"This month, Republicans will lay out a clear and positive governing agenda focused on cutting Washington spending and getting people working again.
Lockhart Says Fed Not Signaling Bigger Balance Sheet - BusinessWeek
The balance sheet leveling was “ a small tactical change designed to preserve the level of liquidity provided to the system,” Lockhart said at East Tennessee State University.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Just saw this float by on MSNBC: Teen accidentally texts sheriff to buy pot - U.S. news - Weird news - msnbc.com
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Bankston and his wife have two sons: Eric, 31, and Sean, 25. Both live in the Long Beach area.
The couple will remain in Camarillo and remodel their home.
Just reread U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It: Laurence Kotlikoff - Bloomberg
Rob Dawg wrote:
Talk about having no fear. When your local
aren't willing to at least try to relocate, you know you have some serious decay going on.
Eric wrote:
Ummm... err.... uhhhh.
Textbook hilliarty...
Have the back to school shopping sales numbers been released?
All I could find was this:
Average Amount Consumers Planned to Spend for Back-to-College School Supplies
$62.91 - 2010
$61.05 - 2009
$68.47 - 2008
$63.52 - 2007
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
and much easier than solving a burglary, murder or rape.
yagij wrote:
A quarter mil per year and free medical and they should scrape by.
Would that be 'Refer Madness"
Unexpectedly, no doubt.
Working on a commercial foreclosure where I represent the Plaintiff for once.
HomeGnome wrote:
You also usually don't get the joy of causing the perp to be wobbly knees and weak-hearted fainting when confronting a rapist or a murderer.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Yes. Possession of small amounts is legal in Provincetown on Cape Cod, but there is a national seashore there, and if you're caught on that property with your weed, you'll be busted.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
,rad Dawgma wrote:
It's never too late to make a great first impression in high school...
lawyerliz wrote:
You mean like for money and stuff? Kewl.
Rob Dawg wrote:
"Scrape by"? Like the Bells situation, they should be worried about being dragged behind a truck like they treat "those people" in UT or WY...
Yep.
. I've almost forgotten what it was.
Eric wrote:
That isn't the same person that was using bears to guard the pot plants was it?
Wall Street Manna: Black bears "guard" pot plants
t r orwell wrote "Duke of Con Dao, the Hudson Institute must be distinguished from Dr Michael Hudson"
...
guess you didn;t get the memo from poic, nova, or picosec -
"do not engage the Duke under any circumstance..."
yagij wrote:
I'd love to know what the cumulative cost of the city managers position totals. There's probably 3 former CMs receiving benefits and whatever the current is costing. What a racket.
Doc Holiday wrote:
The other ten miscounted or where lying...
Food Stamps Went to Record 41.3 Million in June, USDA Says - BusinessWeek
More jobs for India processing food stamps applications.
Serious question - has it become easier to get food stamps these days? Otherwise, why does food stamp usage increase while the economy is recovering, just a lagging indicator?
dryfly wrote:
VenCo only lost 0.3%. This is one of those numbers I trust. The BoE is pretty efficient.
small pdf here: News Releases - California State Board of Equalization
On one end, the National Park spends a lot of money stopping the cartel from growing it, and on the other end, Federal Law Enforcement writes a lot of -13- tickets, and has a couple of K-9 units with fidos that bring home the bacon, but being surrounded by an already nobody cares all that much about the legality of it ethic in the Golden State*, combined with 19 passing, could be interesting.
glimmerman wrote:
"About 40.5 million people, more than an eighth of the population, will get food stamps each month in the year that began Oct. 1, according to White House estimates. The figure is projected to rise to 43.3 million in 2011."
I mean, seriously, 1/8 of the population? Is there some scam I am not privy to? I am not too proud to take a govt handout if they are giving them away.
Anyone know how to apply?
Doc Holiday wrote:
That blog reads like equity Slumcalls.
bearly wrote:
Time to work on that list of mommies to visit!
Az tax collections down again.
This is with a 1% sales tax hike a couple of months ago.
Arizona taxable sales were $3.56 billion in June, an almost 1 percent drop from May and a 3 percent decrease from June 2009, according to the Arizona Department of Revenue.
Read more: State's taxable retail sales took a 3% tumble in June
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Our Sheriff loves the '13.' He gets a couple helicopters and a mounted patrol and toys out the wazoo to fight the scourge.
The Associated Press: Obama: New jobs numbers 'positive' but not enough
President Barack Obama welcomed news Friday of better-than-expected private sector job growth.
Huh... is this related to the story about the kid texting the sheriff?
Have the back to school shopping sales numbers been released?
Patience. I'm still waiting for the christmas sales number.
I'm gonna ask kcoop for a new :mcgyver: icon.
To be used when a feat of amazing physical, social, intellectual or moral ingenuity is recounted on HCN.
glimmerman wrote:
Had the pleasure when I got laid off in '03. It's a very humbling experience, to get started,, you get treated like a number and POS. However once you "get in", there are many many ways to stay on the system, even after there's no longer a need. They told my wife she could continue to qualify if she came in and filed their paperwork (that would be called "job training") for them. I felt dirty about the whole process and got off of it as soon as I could. The charity food banks actually provided more substantive help, and I still donate to them regularly.
How much
do you get for twenty bucks now?
chapel_of_words wrote:
+1
Doc Holiday wrote:
Who says Boehner can't hold two contradictory opinions at the same time?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Imagine what he'll be able to do against the homegrown terrorists in his fair city.
I just posted a film recommendation: Twenty Bucks
If Obama wants to provide any hope at all, he has to spin out hype like Bush did (about the economy and job growth) Bullshitting people about jobs is a waste of time ..... it's time to go back to talking down the
and getting real!
See: Bush: Wall Street Has "Hangover" - CBS News
"There is no question about it. Wall Street got drunk," the president said. "That's one reason I asked you to turn off your TV cameras."
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
HIGHTIMES.COM > July 2010 THMQ
~ 1.25 grams.
km4 wrote:
As I commented the last time this was posted, this is a brilliant example of an assertion containing its own contradiction.
dryfly wrote:
I mostly agree with you. However, I think I should point out that it is possible to have people be more or less productive in providing DISservices. A disservice is something which either harms the individual receiving it (like a parking ticket), or makes the economy less productive than not doing that function at all. It is possible to have someone who is very efficient at giving out lots of parking tickets. However, they are essentially being more efficient at reducing commerce, reducing business taxes, and ruining people's days. There are plenty of other examples, both in the public and private sector.
chapel_of_words wrote:
Every year. About now hundreds of pounds of avocados. In 6 weeks we start using our points and customer cards and buy a bunch of turkeys for next to nothing and donate them. Year round it is canned goods.
One of the main criteria for being eligible for food stamps is where your household income falls relative to federally defined poverty levels and the number of people in your household. A family of four where the husband makes say $50K and the wife stays home with the kids is not that far above the federal poverty level, per capita. Now, consider the large number of Americans with wages not close to that, like the $13 an hour machine operators. They can have a fulltime job and possibly still qualify for food stamps.
poic wrote:
A Swiss Army knife with several of the blades open?
adornosghost wrote:
Not at all - the feds, unlike the states, can magically print money. The folks trying to make truly industrial cannabis food processing operations are idiots - anything on a large scale will be destroyed, and the management can expect significant federal jail terms. We can't forget that in terms of regulatory capture, big pharma is second only to the banks, and they really, really hate the idea of people growing their own powerful medicine. The alcohol lobby doesn't like it much either. Congress doesn't work for us - they work for them.
chapel_of_words wrote:
Interesting, thanks for the info.
Not sure why you would feel dirty, though, 1/8 of the population????????? That has to be one of the largest govt programs around. This is almost as big as Medicare (46M). And I don't know too many who are ashamed of being on Medicare.
The movie I just recommended is a quirky one...
It follows Andrew Jackson, everyplace he goes~
"It solidifies the idea the economic recovery is going to remain in tack."**
Is that in the English language? Tack?
St. Louis Fed: Series: CIVPART, Civilian Participation Rate
Doc Holiday wrote:
...by cutting as much blue pork as possible while leaving as much red pork in place as possible. Classic win-win.
glimmerman wrote:
The Right has been so successful at demonizing the receipt of any kind of public assistance that many will not touch food stamps until they are absolutely flat-out starving, along with their spouse and kids. They claim it's pride, but it's fear of their neighbors.
pavel,
He's trying to make our economy seem like a sailing ship, er selling ship.
And I don't know too many who are ashamed of being on Medicare.
We are on Medicare, even though we are enrolled in an excellent private health plan. It won't kick in, however, unless the care isn't covered by Medicare.
Is that in the English language? Tack?
Yes. It is slang for being in harness or harnessed
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Sailing term.
The Right has been so successful at demonizing the receipt of any kind of public assistance that many will not touch food stamps until they are absolutely flat-out starving, along with their spouse and kids. They claim it's pride, but it's fear of their neighbors finding out.
He's trying to make our economy seem like a sailing ship, er selling ship.
Or a horse, JD.
Yes, Nova, I know the term 'tack' also has to do with horses. I didn't think an economist would be using a horse-handling term, but perhaps I was mistaken.
Anyway, does anyone say that a horse is in tack?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Is this one of those "everybody else's legislator is a dog
tool of the special interests, but my legislator is a rational statesmanlike public servant" types of observations?
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
Obama must know by now that the wind is not to his back.
glimmerman wrote:
First thing to do is get yourself laid off or fired and join the U6 brigade--maybe work minimum wage for 15 hours/week at a local mall, or as a bank teller or something.
8.9 million involuntary part-time workers
6.25 million unemployed more than 26 weeks
Add in their kids, subtract out the ones with means (employed spouse, sufficient savings) and you've pretty much hit that 40 million.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
He was kinda boring wasn't he? I tried reading a book about him, but lost interest -- and I like stuff like that ... I'll ponder this with care.
MB wrote:
Your attempt to invoke the phony left/right paradigm FAILS!!!
Food stamp usage - 1/8 of the population!!!!!! Lord help us if "many will not touch food stamps" and we are already at 1/8 of the population.
More likely a good portion of these people are on it when they no longer quality, as the poster above mentioned - qualify once, qualify forever.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
If that's the caes, we're presently "in irons." - In irons – When the bow of a sailboat is headed into the wind and the boat has stalled and is unable to maneuver
It follows Andrew Jackson, everyplace he goes~
familyblog.
pavel, you'll be fine with your insurance as long as the government stays the hell out of Medicare.
White House considers pre-midterm package of business tax breaks to spur hiring
Man, we're in real trouble when the White House thinks chatting with a Wall Street booster proves he cares about what's going on with the economy. The tone-deafness is amazing.
The significant metric is the full-time non-farm payroll - which should go under 100 million at some point in the next decade. This will be a significant milestone.
hey JD
better version of that movie made in the 1930s...
pavel,
He was trying to say that the stagecoach of the economy is now back on track because the horse is hitched. The term originated in 1874 in Pima County, AZ. Now it is only used by old timers and the occasional refugee from NJ who wants to be mistaken for one.
glimmerman wrote:
Just be jobless, broke and hungry, get your documentation of same together, and get yourself down to the local assistance office.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I'm not saying we weren't grateful, but some of the canned goods...we...um...we saved those "for last". I think we finished off the last can like three years later, just couldn't bring ourselves to eat it again.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I'm still waiting for him to tack left.
Oxtail wrote:
I had to scan the article to see if your quote about golfing was a joke.
Sadly, it was not.
chapel_of_words wrote:
That was probably right after JD donated a couple of cases of Deviled Ham.
Doc Holiday wrote:
Only if the Federal reserve can hire 10 million people for $500B at 50K per head and give them all a
No spending increase but at the same time we get people working again! It's 'free'
MB wrote:
Not at all. The California Board of Equalization is just one of those sharp agencies. Don't cross them or they'll show you orifices you didn't know you had but at the same time when they report it isn't with error bands or subject to revision or a SAAR statistical sample. Their job is to count and they do it well. You know I have a very low opinion of most CA functions so at least trust me on this.
Thanks, Nova. Got it now.
rosethorn wrote:
I filled out the info for SNAP on line. Used $10.00 hr as income.
Per thier numbers I would not qualify, make too much money.
If I lowered it to $7.hr, I would qualify for $137.00 per month.
Interesting process.
greenchutes wrote:
Classic win-win
Speaking of waste. The TalkRadio this morning said fed agencies will be on a $100+ billion 'use it or lose it' spending spree this month to beat the september 30th end of FY.
jobless, broke, and hungry describes 90% of the college population, but the school still makes you enroll in the over-priced meal plans.
glimmerman wrote:
What felt "dirty" was two-fold. One I don't like being unable to rely on my self. Just a personal thing. Second it really felt like the workers were gaming the system, they used their positions of doling out food stamps and approving recertifications as a way to augment their staff with people to do the s---work they didn't want to do. It also had the feel of a DMV, so maybe the workers were just a product of their environment.
As I said, the charity foodbanks, they had a much more positive vibe about the whole experience. Though interesting fact-toid, once you "qualify" for food-stamps, there's a whole range of funding vehicles open to you (emergeny utility support, reduced phone rates) etc. They use the food-stamp qualification process as a "gate-keeper", so once you get on the program there, you can get access to other stuff. Granted that was 7 years ago, YMMV.
I get 92,000 hits @ Google for:
"ISM Non-Manufacturing Index"^sex
No, you don't have to be jobless, you have to be making less that certain federally set income levels.
Basel Too wrote:
Not most of the ones I've seen at USC, basel.
A course is a course, of course, of course,
And no one can change course of course
That is, of course, unless we change course thanks to the famous Mister Ben
Go right to the source and ask of course
He'll give you the answer that you'll endorse.
He's always on a steady course.
Talk to Mister Ben
People yakkity yak a streak and waste your time of day
But Mr. Ben will never speak unless he has something to say
A course is a course, of course, of course,
And this one'll talk 'til his voice is hoarse.
You never heard of him diverging course?
Well listen to this: "He's Mister Fed"
Of course, it depends on what state you live in. Some states are more restrictive than others.
pavel, you'll be fine with your insurance as long as the government stays the hell out of Medicare.
Basel too, nobody messes with our benefits.
greenchutes wrote:
I know a guy in Montana who grows, thinks he'll get bought out by big pharma.
So I asked whether he had his FDA protocols in place for when the government made it legal(as if). He looked at me like I was speaking Mandarin.
They don't call it dope for nothing, folks.
rosethorn wrote:
You want an eye-opening experience, go to the food stamp office and do a survey of the cars in the parking lot.
chapel_of_words wrote:
Thanks, that is interesting stuff.
Anyone know at what point a child can qualify? I assume full time students can't qualify?
It appears to me the social stigma attached once upon a time to food stamps has left the building. I encourage all famlies with children to apply even if they know they are not eligable. In this economy you might need them tomorrow and you would already would be in the system and the waiting would take less.
some investor guy wrote:
Makes sense - a lot of mfg is that way too - adds to GDP as it passes thru a sweatshop, to WalMart, your garage, on its way to a landfill somewhere without providing any value to you or society. But in a market-like economy we are all free to choose our own disservices & wasteful products so I don't see this changing anytime soon.
chapel_of_words wrote:
Yeah. I see what other people bring in. No argument from me. We specifically shop for appropriate items. Refried beans, canned veggies like corn and beets, soups, you know stock items.
Nah, i'm thinking it was some other potted meat, i'd never be that cruel.
MaryAnn wrote:
Thanks, that is interesting as well.
Is income the only criteria? i.e. if you had $10M in the bank earning nothing, but had no income, are you eligible?
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
Unintended jibe more like it though...
I had to scan the article to see if your quote about golfing was a joke.
Sadly, it was not."
wrote glimmerman...
...
15 minutes sounds quite reasonable, really. remember that Mike could be a future adversary and best to be kept at arms' length - and plus O went to Columbia. it's not like bloomberg is holding some key insight.
the mere mention of sports tells me a certain wariness was going on...
remember Nixon talking to Hunter Thompson?
You want an eye-opening experience, go to the food stamp office and do a survey of the cars in the parking lot.
It's a human right. Anyway, they're all re-possessed previously owned. Heavily discounted. Great deals.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Vienna Sausage?
Vienna sausage - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Yes.
Thoughts on why the decline in UEMPMED may show deterioration in the labor market rather than in improvement:
energyecon: Decline in UEMPMED - Labor Market Deterioration?
*Anyone know at what point a child can qualify? I assume full time students can't qualify? *
Check out this website.
My recollection is the means assessment is based on the "household", not the individual living within it. So if the kid lives within the household, and the household exceeds the resource limits, no love. But odd things are excluded, like vehicles. Hence my note about surveying the parking lot.
Or just go down to the food stamp office and sit in the waiting room. In the time it took us to get our first appointment, we learned more about how the system works, and how you can game it, then ten hours spent reading websites.
dryfly wrote:
"Market-like economy." Interesting theory. I wonder if it would work in practice.
chapel_of_words wrote:
I am sure that they must all be Cadillacs.
"Tack" has several usages, horses as mentioned, and sailing, but attributed incorrectly. One isn't "in tack" while sailing. One would be on a starbord or port tack (archaic - larbord). Tacking is the act of sailing upwind by sailing at an angle to the direction of the wind. This is also said as "sailing/going to windward." When one changes tack, e.g. changing from port tack to starbord tack, one is said to "come about." Failing to complete the procedure leaves one "in irons." Coming about while sailing downwind (with the wind at your back,) is called "running with the wind." Changing directions while sailing downwind can necessitate coming about also. This is described as "jibing" - a maneuver generally accepted to be modestly dangerous.
A critical analysis of Walmart not from a political point of view, but from a demographic point of view: Changing Demography and Your future - Journal - Is Wal-Mart Too Big to Fail?
"Is Wal-Mart a Baby Boomer consumer based business? Is sliding Baby Boomer demand and declining consumption driving Wal-Marts sales in the same direction?"
The author's answer is yes.
I personally know several people with families who have qualified for food stamps for decades, but who have never signed up to receive them, and for exactly the reasons I stated. I suspect you do as well.
chapel_of_words wrote:
Eligibility
Licensed vehicles are NOT counted if they are:
used for income-producing purposes,
annually producing income consistent with their fair market value,
needed for long distance travel for work (other than daily commute),
used as the home,
needed to transport a physically disabled household member,
needed to carry most of the household's fuel or water, or
if the household has little equity in the vehicle (because of money owed on the vehicle, it would bring no more than $1,500 if sold).
For all other vehicles, the fair market value over $4,650 or the equity value, whichever is more, is counted:
one per adult household member, and
any other vehicle a household member under 18 drives to work, school, job training, or to look for work.
I donate to our local food bank, and you have to be a parent mit child to be able to get anything. If there's anything left over, singles can have at it.
They've figured out the root of the problem, and best delivery method.
excuse me while I put on HMS Pinafore
The ten-year chart on WMT would seem to indicate that the market has known this for a while.
Glee, Keep your money in the mattress because thats something they look at, must take bank statements and employment stubs, utility bills, house payment verification or proof of rent.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
A declining manufacturing base and an educational system that can't compete globally when weighed down by creationism and an anti-intellectual cultural bias?
Anyone post this yet?
multimediafinal
Vic wrote:
I'm just quoting the last bit here, because I'm sure that's how most of them qualified. This never really seemed to be a problem.
yep...
rosethorn wrote:
Walmart has gotten too big, too vertical and burned too many relationships to be able to respond to any changes in the retail landscape. I can think of a half-dozen black swans circling their business model.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Exactly. That's why I was wondering. Competence is always such a breath of fresh air, isn't it?
greenchutes wrote:
Dude, that is so, like, totally, like, you know, like unfair and stuff, to the SkyDaddy, dude.
Idol's On!!!
Pavel, when I worked for Medicaid and it came food stamp day, a group of State workers were perched in lofts in the Courthouse recording car tags. This blew me away.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I will confirm that it feels far better to be a net contributor to charity, rather than a net consumer of it.
As I said in another post, this was all back in 2003. We paid off all our debts in 2008, and this year I'm focusing on losing 100lbs. There are things you can't control in your life, and there are things you can. It feels really good to have gotten control back and then be able to give to someone else...though I'm not of the opinion volunteerism should be forced, because that kind of defeats the purpose.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Notice I didn't call it a 'market economy'... I almost used the term pseudo-market economy but that doesn't really do it justice either. Our system looks and acts like a market economy as long as our actions & choices don't threaten the oligarchs & bankers... so you are free to buy whatever brand of pizza or toothpaste WalMart offers.
We've never had real socialism, real keynsian economics or real market economics anywhere at anytime in my lifetime and I presume going back before that. Only variations of crony capitalism, oligarchy or apparatchikacracy everywhere. I don't see this changing either.
Now be happy. Buy. Consume.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
greenchutes wrote:
Yeah, there's a lot of that, we are talking about California's bible belt here.
Food is doled out twice a month, and as somebody mentioned upthread, the cars look a lot more prosperous than the people they drive.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
That's not rounding, that's truncation.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Meh - you don't like adventure?
Rob Dawg wrote:
are those the skinhead black swans I've been seeing around lately?
chapel_of_words wrote:
Charity is voluntary; welfare isn't.
Good luck on your weight loss.
and that isn't a snark.
Basel Too wrote:
But those meal profits go towards lowering the cost of higher education! ... don't they?
Friend who is unemployed and has a child qualifies for food stamps.
Another friend, unemployed with no child, does not qualify.
The unemployment checks are $1160. mo, which is the max.
Christchurch hit by 7.4 earthquake.
We keep a year's worth of canned/dry food on hand here, and invariably don't eat it all, and it gets donated to the food bank as the use-by date come near or passes.
We view it like an insurance policy that costs about $1500 a year for 2 of us, and even if we don't use the policy, somebody will, and our conscience is salved and our neighbors aren't hungry.
A win-win-win
MB wrote:
Carolina Dining
Holy shit!
That's enormous
Go see the movie Winter's Bones. They eat squirrel.
MaryAnn wrote:
I suggest we give them to everyone-- it would stimulate the economy from the bottom up.
And if there is one thing the US is good at (as long as they have excess fossil fuel) is growing food, entertaining people, and bombing countries. We are also not bad a software, and pretty good at the Dog Track (finance).
ACORN runnin' voter registration drives for Nov ?
so the efficient solution would be for the non-qualifying friend to have a baby.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
That's what I heard last night.
Oxtail wrote:
Wow, I was worried about the tack room. You know, the saddles, brushes, bridles and bits. Um, oh, I think he meant or maybe TIME, that paragon of journalism, meant intact? Good grief.
dryfly wrote:
Bankocracy? Fireocracy? Firecrats =
?
looks like a direct hit 10-degree Map Centered at 45°S,170°E
dryfly wrote:
It results in a surprising number of "man overboards". The worst are when one is sailing solo. What makes it dangerous is that as one crosses the wind from direction to the other, the full force of the wind is caught in the mainsail. There's tremendous power there... unlike coming about to windward where all the mainsail's power is lost, and the maneuver has to be accomplished through the boat's momentum.
Elvis wrote:
Well, flush next time.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
After Queenstown, Christchurch is one of my favorite large towns on South Island--
Basel Too wrote:
He might have trouble with that qualification.
wonder what Pat Robertson thinks of an earthquake hitting Christchurch.
Roger Cohen writes in the Times today:
"Obama **is a realist in the image of Britain’s 19th-century statesman Lord Palmerston**, who once declared: “We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”
...
I generally agree with most of what Cohen writes even though it is Euro-centric - perhaps that's why I'm drawn to him.
but Palmerston? definitely one of my all time favorites when it comes to foreign policy...
Huge earthquake rocks Christchurch | Stuff.co.nz
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Yes, they are specialists at food delivery to the needy, and they do it well. It's where my charitable $$$$ go.
adornosghost wrote:
The dog that wins at the track is the one who wasn't fed a pound of hamburger right before the race.
many brick buildings in Christchurch?
Hackman wrote:
Sure, another idiotic failure due to relying on spellcheck instead of proofreading.
Strong 7.4 quake hits New Zealand near Christchurch - The Globe and Mail
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
Oooops.
Yes, the entire city centre is made of brick, or was.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It's a really deep quake so there's a blessing.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Not a problem.
Oregon students will be able to use spell check to pass state writing test | OregonLive.com
There was an earthquake in Christchurch.
energyecon wrote:
Living here in CV CA, I have to go with 99'er falling off the edge. It seems like there are a lot of people here that have on the UE roles for over a year and there aren't any signs of the employment picture improving here with U-3 stubbornly in the high teens.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
I was in this same forum when an earthquake hit SFO and I managed to let our guys in SDO know about it before they actually felt the tremor.
The guy I was actually talking to over there could hardly believe it.
*Good luck on your weight loss. and that isn't a snark. *
Thanks! Though no need for luck, I'm 75lbs lighter after 8 months, giving me another 3 months to get the other 25lbs off. Someone posted the other day that most behavioral habit changes are ones that we take foreveror to do the right thing, but then slap ourselves in the head because we should've been doing it all along.
oh sh!t
I've always liked ChCh, I hope things aren't as bad as they seem to be...
To give people that have never been there, an appreciation of what kind of place it is, imagine having 7 or 8 competing REI stores on a few block radius?
A very agreeable city~
Elvis wrote:
Watching some late night TV, no doubt.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I like except gotta be FIREcrats...
And suddenly 9.6% unemployment doesn't seem that bad...
Local NZ reporting: Massive 7.4 quake hits South Island - national | Stuff.co.nz
Sorry to bore everyone with sailing terminology and techniques. I'm incapable of contributing to the overnight TCP/IP HTML/XML GHDB blah, blah, blah threads and a font of personal knowledge was bursting for freedom.
The quake, which was recorded at 4:35 a.m. (1:35 p.m. Friday ET), registered 7.2 on the Richter scale, the U.S. Geological Survey said in Washington. The USGS predicted only light damage based on its Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale.
Strong quake hits New Zealand - World news - Asia-Pacific - msnbc.com
Hopefully not too bad.
funny how you can do a google streetview of Christchurch
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Doesn't bore me, Bosch.
Some of us boaters actually flip over on purpose.
:kayak icon:
just lookin at the payroll report again. Out of the private sector, we had gains in construction (ridic), temp jobs, and health care. That's all. Basically says the economy is dead in the water still.
full of yentas this site is i'll tell ya!
I hope my Kiwi pals are unharmed...
maybe the power of force majeure will do us a favor and
swallow up the All Blacks rugby team into a giant hole...
Speaking of the WMT 10 year chart - that was basically the trend '03-'07 in the "good" times. Gubmint and bubble-fueled FIRE and construction, with a steady trickle of health care growth.
Remember to take your medicine
The best thing about rugby is it is not on TV here.
HomeGnome wrote:
Punting on the Avon, Christchurch, New Zealand
HomeGnome wrote:
As kids we had a small sloop we'd tip over on purpose too - hot summer days, cool water, high side on an aggressive tack and plop over we'd go. Swim it to shore, bail it out and do it again.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Well I'm sorry to hear that.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
My club team wore the same uniforms. Not only easy to clean but cheaper because they ere so popular.
now that's the faggiest god damn thing i've ever seen
It seems that Walmart is following the same path as Sears. Sears had built a dominant position in retail sales by the mid to late twentieth century and was unable to respond to market changes due to younger generations not having the same connection to their brand. It seems the prognosis for Walmart is a long, gradual decline into irrelevancy. They are too big to merely collapse and liquidate.
dryfly wrote:
Sounds like me trying to learn to "roll" my kayak.
More practice is what I need.
It's called kayaking; not swimming with a boat.
rosethorn wrote:
Hope springs eternal.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
Second faggiest: Swan Boats of Boston
YouTube - Haka-All Blacks New Zealand VS France
HomeGnome wrote:
My BIL learned to roll on Lake Superior... 45 degF is motivation to get it right, right now.
Comrade Elmer Fudd quoted:
As Ross Perot would say, "Problem solved!"
What kid didn't drool over and mark up the Sears and JCPenny XMas catalogs every year?
That looks too gawd damn civilized, how those people can stand that, living with all that gawd damn socialism, free health care and whatever. And no guns?!
I only included it on account of ,rad Dawgma's infatuation with thing punt.
Had a couple of friends who launched a newly-built boat on Lake Pontchartrain a month after Katrina"
...
knew this babe some years ago whose dad was behind the collegiate ring co. (Josten's?) and was blown up in his boat with wife on the lake off that ritzy town in MI. (she told me for years he was involved with the Irish financial mob which his how he got financing...)
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Who needs guns when you can kill with words.
Now I finally understand why all these academics become commies:
YouTube - The Simpsons - Comments about PhDs and Grad Students. [HQ]
dryfly wrote:
Water is ~ 57F here right now.
USGS Real-Time Water Data for USGS 02168504 SALUDA RIVER BELOW LK MURRAY DAM NR COLUMBIA, SC
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
American football is for wusses.
the Swan Boats are the only boats of their kind in the world
oh, to be a beantown toff
Just said the earthquake was relatively shallow.
Rob Dawg wrote:
and folks who like two hours of commercials wedged in between an hour of "game".
Big earthquake in Christchurch. Didn't feel a thing here in Auckland. Of course, we are 1000 km north of ChCh. Some buildings are down in ChCh. So far no reports of injuries, but it's early yet. We are safe.
edit: 7.4
and that's why you don't use gasoline. diesel is the only way to go.
dryfly wrote:
We did too. We had a Sea Snark all styrofoam. After a few weeks of sailing in a pond in Southhampton, we got bored and dragged it several hundred yards to the ocean... where we promptly broke is in half trying to get out past the breakers. We thought my Dad would be pissed, but he was almost ecstatic to be able to introduce us to epoxy... he glued the two halves back together and we were back on the pond the next day. No, no more ocean adventures that summer.
We can safely ignore this data point as it doesn't support the recovery argument.
Party on Wayne!
American football: start-wait 15 seconds-see big pile of mostly black man. Start all over. Plus a lot of chewing gum and overweight whitey man yelling like some slave plantation owner and wearing headphones from 70's.