August Employment Report: 60K Jobs ex-Census, 9.6% Unemployment Rate
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 09/03/2010 - 4:55am (96 comments)
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Unexpectedly™
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sluggish and choppy indeed.
But no
This was an unbelievably strong report. Unfortunately, I still don't have evidence of a turnaround in housing here. But this should give a lot of comfort to the bulls.
The second chart tells the entire tale. Scariest.chart.EVER.
Another dispatch from the Ministry of Truth.
That first chart looks like Nellie, the Loss Ness monster.
Maybe there's work out there in managing some assets for the FDIC. Short of cash? No problem - the FDIC will fix you up with a zero percent loan and a little working capital to the tune of $25 million. Must be nice to risk nothing in exchange for 40% of the upside that's projected to yield an IRR of 18 to 20% annually.
Mariner Buys Interest in $760 Million Loan Portfolio From FDIC - Bloomberg.com
Mike in LI
What's your problem with Corporatism?
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Isn't it at 0% or did I miss something?
They still need to repay the principal borrowed which was lent with zero interest. Please don't give them any more great ideas.
Bond-Fund Inflows Don't Spur Job Cuts - Barrons.com
No, its just money parking, not yield chasing unless its corporate bonds in which case....the logic gets circular. jhmo Lots of circular logic around these days.
it's so interesting to watch capitalism implode like communism, as towards the end, everything was fantasy-based in the Soviet Union, but they didn't have the luxury of free money, because it wouldn't have made any difference, as there was nothing to buy anyway.
... it never ends. jeesh.
token bull wrote:
Yep, it's unbelievable. Especially with the revisions, I'm expecting a huge birth-death correction next year.
What are other people seeing in their neck of the woods in housing? I love anecdotes, and I only half-trust some of the out-of-town realtors I know.
Good Morning.
Bon giorno, tutti
How long does that red line have to scrape along the bottom of the chart before it becomes the new normal?
That's a whole lot of "area under the curve" there...
Woe to the shorts who were hoping to hold through that ISM bump.
Momentum is building.
Five empty homes on our block.
One has been empty for almost two years now.
The others only about a year.
All but one are at least are keeping the grass mowed.
token bull wrote:
I agree. Between this and the manufacturing index, this is a couple of big numbers in a couple of days. Thought-provoking...
Half of the listings disappeared in the past month from the Big Box Realtor, and prices asked on the remnant are in no way a realflection of what the abode is worth on the county steps, in a fair evaluation.
Read more: 9.6% August Unemployment, When Bad Feels Good - 24/7 Wall St. Page not found - 24/7 Wall St.
Market set to explode on the jobs data
Doofus wrote:
already curled over and gave up 50 dow points off the euphoric high
token bull wrote:
There are no "for sale" signs on either street I can see from home, or pretty much anywhere close. There was a house right down the street listed at $599k a couple of years ago, but it got reduced to $299k before it sold. Most props in the area are in the $xxk>$1xxk range. 3 storys, 3bd/1.5bth.
alkaloids wrote:
From the PMI:
Employment 60.4 58.6 +1.8 Growing Faster 9
From the BLS:
Manufacturing employment declined by 27,000 over the month.
Odd mix. Perhaps it's not so pumpup.
In my area, there is literally nothing going on. The only listings out there are pretty much all overpriced, and most likely would not appraise for their listing price.
I think we have hit peak stagnation. The funny thing is, I suspect the sellers will win for now, but lose three years hence. Bottling up inventory works for a while until the selling pressure reaches explosive levels. If we were at the same levels of activity that we had in 2003, then houses would be down 20-30% from here given the scarcity of buyers.
Eric wrote:
The 1100 level might be a great entry for a new short position, or it might grind up into early next week a bit. It is amazing what an anemic report will do, or rather a non-catastrophic report. We are funny monkeys.
token bull wrote:
I live in Orlando Florida. My impression is that more and more houses are on the market for lower prices. Houses that went for 120K to 150K three or four years ago (i.e. the really bad parts of town) can now be had for prices in the 30k-40k range. Houses that sold in the 250K-300k range can be had for around 50k. Of course, this is based on the huge number of hand-made signs that litter the landscape. And the sellers only want cash, of course.
With a strong report like this, who needs another stinkin stimulus?
curious wrote:
Very curious. I had just found that number.
They claim Pavlov used a dog, but why didn't he just use us instead?
Add to the confusion by seeing the drop in productivity and flatline of workweek/hrs.
Talk about a miss:
ISM's Employment Index registered 60.4 percent in August, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the 58.6 percent reported in July. This is the ninth consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Ten of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in August in the following order: Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. Furniture & Related Products is the only industry reporting a decrease in employment during August.
Payrolls ex birth-death fiction -169. August number is typically the biggest fictional model job add of the second half of the year.
Mr. Slippery wrote: The 1100 level might be a great entry for a new short position, or it might grind up into early next week a bit. It is amazing what an anemic report will do, or rather a non-catastrophic report.
similarly, from: Gap Up to S&P 1100 Locked and Loaded as Employment Picture Weakens Less than Expected | Benzinga.com
token bull wrote:
Oh, and in Osceola County, just south of Orlando, I heard that 11,000 to 12,000 homes are sitting empty, out of the 77,000 total. Many never lived in. Meanwhile a local developer wants to add up to 30,000 new units to the county supply to support the new "medical city" in south Orange County. Good times!
REBear wrote:
Yes, this is not good news for the people waiting to board the QE2.
*What are other people seeing in their neck of the woods in housing? *
In my neighborhood in GA - the foreclosures are fairly obvious (lots of overgrown bushes and uncut lawn). You can still get half-off the high but people seem to be picking them up. One house burned down, it's got tape around it as the insurance gets set to rebuild (assuming it wasn't arson). Overall not too bad, though I noticed the rental signs (which used to go in about 1month) are taking longer to come down.
In my neighborhood in Fernly, NV - well the development across the way is an absolute ghost-town. Every street, the houses down the line are "for rent" "for sale" "for sale" "foreclosed" "for rent" "foreclosed."
In my neighborhood in Arlington, VA - what housing slump?
I've been half expecting an exodous from the Big Smokes to hit our little smoke, but it isn't happening.
We've got no crime, hardly any corporate presence, pleasant people, no grafitti or gangs, and no jobs, but oh what a view~
You could sell your home in SD/OC/LA/SF worth $600k, and buy the same home here for $200k, and live off the proceeds for quite awhile.
p.s.
You'll get no grief about being a Californicator, either.
To me, this unemployment report just confirms that we are not double-dipping, but that we are not head in the right direction (up). +60,000 is just not going to make much of a dent in anything, and will probably cause the government to enter a debt spiral before a meaningful pick-up in economic activity.
So manufactoring is getting stronger because they're laying off more people. Great. Is it time to start the revolution yet?
Vegas still seems to be getting slaughtered. Mass exodus of people.
chapel_of_words wrote:
Yeah, I've heard the DC is the only area of the country to be back at peak pricing. At the same time, I'm hearing that volume is 50% of what it was.
Vegas 2005: Host Town
Vegas 2015: Ghost Town
token bull wrote:
Spec houses still being built in Southern NH.
For existing stock, Plenty of For Sale signs, not much seems to be moving, however. Particularly stagnant are those dreadful 55+ "active living" communities (what retiree wants to shovel snow 6 months of the year?).
Foreclosures ticking up now, however. There are 4 in my neighborhood (mostly Colonial/Cape homes with bubble prices in the mid 300s).
DC and the Big Smokes in the Golden State have somewhat kept their home prices up, against all odds.
In the North Country of VT...plenty of for sale signs but little evidence of foreclosure. I'm starting to see new price! for the first time. This market is very strange, its hard to get a read on what is really going on. But I can say even affordable middle class homes that were the big squeeze here are sitting on the market and prices have been ticking down slowly.
CRE for sale signs are breeding like bunnies.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Wait until the Federal receiver invalidates Prop 13.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Wouldn't that make the CAians the "receiver"?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
,rad Dawgma wrote:
dude, like that would be so unlucky, dude.
Equities are just trading right now. Don't get too excited until spx breaks above 1130. Just don't be short here at these levels.
Leveraged long 10yr T => EXTREME PAIN.
Did anyone else enjoy seeing former Governor Tommy Thompson calling out former Governor Howard Dean on CNBC for his remark that "this was a great report". Duh...
I am still green (pre-open) on a small SH position that I established the day they bailed Greece out.
So how many burial plots should we dig for the earlier week's confident shorts?
bearly wrote:
What sent the 10y speeding back in the other direction? Bueller? Bueller?
yagij wrote:
We thought it would be a hand off to a tight end but we turned out to be the wide receiver.
What am I seeing in my neck of the woods re RRE?
The houses in my immediate neighborhood that are listed for $300K+ are sitting like the ugly girls at the Homecoming Dance. Guy on the corner wants $415K+ and absolutely no activity. Another guy listed @ $409K and then dropped multiple times and switched realtors so now at about $285K+.
What's more telling is that the realtor who handled our transaction did mostly upscale stuff in the past several years and is now selling shifting back down the price curve to small houses at about $160K or less.
Wife's cousin in VA also has it very slow and is still moving things since she's been in the business for 25+ years but has noted marked decrease.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Personally, I think you would have had a better chance using the wildcat, but it would appear that the Feds would have no problem taking that cat by the tail.
Old Proposition 13: 1%
New Proposition 1: 13?
token bull wrote:
In Huntsville, Al. its all good. But, admittedly, HSV is not your typical American town right now. Lots of army base consolidation here with the defense department breaking ground on a huge millions of sq ft office complex to house all the newbies they are bringing in. Still, the market has slowed but prices still holding up well.
I'm in the process of applying for a home equity loan to finance college tuitions. I was glad to see they won't go over 80% LTV and they are doing an appraisal. Long way from 5 years ago when a loan broker asked our credit score and then told us we could have a $1 million if we wanted it. So things are getting a tad more responsible out there.
Google jumping into Real Estate...
Why is Google Getting Involved in Real Estate? - Francesca Levy - Crib Notes - Forbes
No...but I would have loved it. Dean needs a brain transplant, I'm still living with his convoluted policies that made this state the #1 taxed state in the union that includes AK, HI and CA. We've fallen since but still for a poor state the working classes here get it up the wazoo while the uber-rich enjoy their retreats.
Mr. Slippery wrote: "...his is not good news for the people waiting to board the QE2."
...similarly, from: investmentviews.com
How many homes do you have? If I ever get divorced, I wanna borrow one.
The US employment to population ratio is perhaps the better measure of the employment picture in the US -- more at:
The Vantage Point: US Employment to Population Ratio Declining
Employment in the US declined in August 2010 from 59.3 for the same period last year, and from 58.9% in the previous month of July, to an August figure of 58.8%. The US employment to population ratio has been in a general decline since 2000. Follow link above for more.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Sounds like he did his job to me. quasi-
Mr Slippery wrote:
It's almost like
, in that all news is good news...
bad report -> take the market,
sailing
good report -> take the market, welcome to the recovery!
homedad43 wrote:
Then, we'll make sure your ex-wife is compensated by your use of another home. Can't let you sneak out that easily.
Hehehe... re-election prospects are brightening today.
I love you, too, yagij.
Later, folks
Ken - excellent shirt! Wore it for the first time yesterday and immediately got major league grimy. If I can't clean the stain out, I'll have to reorder...
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
You're seeing the future of the US. Be glad you'll be more prepared than many, especially highly-leveraged homedebtors in the bubblelands.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
This shows VT at #6: Total tax burden (per capita) by state. Definition, graph and map.
mckibbinusa wrote:
Wow, back at 1982 levels. That's before my mom, like so many other women, entered the workforce...
During the Great Depression, hapless souls with money in a bank that closed, sometimes were able to sell their passbook for anywhere from 25 to 75 cents on the dollar, the reason being, that the flippers of the time could take the passbook to the bank, and negotiate a deal on real estate the bank was holding, as the banks were most definitely cash poor, but real estate rich.
So, if you bought a passbook for 25 cents on the dollar, that really validated real estate being worth 25 cents on the dollar, or the same thing with a closed bank's passbook being worth 75 cents on the dollar, which reflected better, the values of the real estate they held.
token bull wrote:
In other news Women attracted to men in red, research shows
With the good jobs report, the stock market backing it up everyone will soon have a job and housing sales will zoom back up.
Krugman speaks to the CR commenteriat:
Paradoxes Of Deleveraging And Releveraging - NYTimes.com
I guess we all notice this, but lately all revisions have been for the worse. One wonders if they put out an optimistic number first on purpose and revise it down later when people are paying less attention.
km4 wrote:
...theme muzak...
YouTube - The Doobie Brothers - What a fool believes
gruntled wrote:
Huh?
When you've got bad news in ample supply, as long as you are able, it's best to slowly let it out, so as not to alarm anybody, but we're way past that stage of the game.
Turbo wrote:
Are door-to-door paving and tree-cutting scams considered "small businesses"?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Theme muzak.. for a decade.
Mr Slippery wrote:
One monkey's "non-catastrophic" is another monkey's "to the Moon!"
Just never hand a monkey a loaded .45 ....
Yeah, its fallen since, I think that was in 2005-8 or so. I can't remember which year exactly. My property taxes rose $500 this year on a high reassessed value at the peak of the bubble. I'm watching a home a couple of houses down to see what it sells for, if its off enough, I'll do something about it. But its got to sell. One down the road has been on the market for almost 2 years. Normally homes like that would have been snatched up the day they were put on the market (like the one I'm in now, I had to put money down literally hours after it was put on the market or lose it). Affordable housing in VT is in very short supply. There is a gigantic disparity here.
Meanwhile, the uber rich including some of the ARS sharks enjoy their multi-million dollar estates some of which are seconds and drive up the cost of housing. There aren't a lot of living wage jobs here so its another doom-loop. Rentals are also ridiculously high.
Samdog wrote:
token bull wrote:
Desperation to get back to the bubble.
it is an unusual experience when one reads the paper in this case the Times - U.S. Lost Jobs in August, but Fewer Than Expected
By CHRISTINE HAUSER - and spies a name of a person known to this writer for say almost 40 years...
...
I completely forgot that he had attained the presidency of the Manufacturers Alliance-MAPI.
Big deal, huh? Well it would be if he wasn't considered when he was in HS to be part of an elite three
selected by a group of teachers over say 15 years... odd, I wonder what happened to the third man?
...
homedad43 wrote:
The question was "neighborhoods where you live". I won't reveal how many homes, or where they have one, but as someone who travels 100% those are the three neighborhoods "where I live" for work, and I keep tabs on real estate in all of them.
"Unbelievably strong report"? Are you kidding me? Essentially we are unchanged. Oh wait. Unemployment ticked up not down. Yeah. Strong. Right.