Krugman: On Inflation and Interest Rates
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CalculatedRisk on Thu, 09/02/2010 - 7:50pm (291 comments)
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Ya hoo, First. (as if I couldn't have been first Many times before)
Comrade Gerkinov,the value of any property is exactly what someone is willing to pay for it in cash, today. Figuring that price out in advance,and convincing the seller to agree to that price are not always easy.
Now all the numbers come in "better than expected" through Nov 2.
Tom Stone wrote:
Too far in advance and your price will be outdated!
My question for the Keynesians: is Japan an example of failed stimulus policy or not?
MiTurn wrote:
Yeah, I'd love to hear a reason why it's not (and "because it would be worse without it" isn't an acceptable answer).
Re: "Last year, many of us were already warning that the economy might stall in the second half of 2010."
==> stall???
Nemo, "Now all the numbers come in "better than expected" through Nov 2. "
We can count on it.
Tj,the right price on the first of the month might be too high by the 15th of the month. And if you don't get it right,it will sit,chasing the market down. Real Estate is priced at the margin,you might be ok with the price for 6 weeks,or one day.
MiTurn wrote:
No. Japan is an example of failed economic policy. As are the U.S. and others. Many others.
MiTurn, "My question for the Keynesians: is Japan an example of failed stimulus policy or not?"
IMO, They would have been just fine if they didn't have to deal with the rest of the global economies.
"One group — the group that got almost all the attention — declared that the stimulus was much too large, and would lead ... to skyrocketing interest rates and soaring inflation."
I'll be in the 3rd group. Misspent tax money borrowed with interest will lead to lower asset prices and higher taxes.
Tom Stone wrote:
Sounds like we no longer have a "market", but individuals. Hoping to get to the right individual at the right time.
Of course,there is all that easy money in short sales! Banks are like,you know, real competent and responsive and shit. Working tirelessly and diligently for the betterment of mankind. Lawyer Liz has described some of her educational experiences with banks in extremely moderate terms. Almost everyone I have spoken to at a short sale department can read from a script in comprehensible english,they do a much better job at this than a gerbil could with the same level of training.
sdtfs, it is interesting to say the least. we get these periods of stability in different price tiers, the someone who HAS TO SELL,sells. Then the price reductions and a bunch of sales. and it slows, and nearly stops sometimes. And someone who has to sell...
[But now what? Unemployment is still too high ...]
What they should have done in the 1st place if they are concerned about employment - Business investment/hiring tax incentives.
YouTube - Southern Cross Crosby Stills Nash subtitles
My 20-something co-worker and her hubby are shopping for a condo. We're in one of those So. Cal coastal communities that is still bubbly. Two weeks ago I sent her a link to CR on a particularly doomy day for RRE news. Today I flat-out told her not to buy. She's got the nesting hormones in full swing and flashed me a look that chilled my blood. Two years from now, when she's six figures under water, she'll positively hate me.
Cognitive dissonance writ large.
An actual on topic comment !
Ahhh Kruggles conveniently misrepresents the situation - as is his wont, him and his model building:
There were actually 3, THREE, trey groups of critics. The third set identified the issue as the inevitable result of too much debt in the system and the solution was expunging the debt, by writeoffs, BK and so on. Adding more debt ( too little / too much is NOT the issue ) simple made things worse.
Kruggles, if he had any integrity, would admit that these critics exist - he can choose to say they are mad/bad/sad/stupid and ignore them - but they don't go away simply because he doesn't mention them.
So, he can continue with his arguments about sterile salt water and fresh water
economistsshrimps but I ask :Where's the BEEF?
Feckless,you nailed it. I finally decided to say "My view of the market differs from yours,but I wish you all happiness in your new home". Of course i wished for a fish the last time I was in the Sierra's too...
Umm,skk,this IS a family blog so I won't mention where that beef is.
The warm weather finally arrived,and as usual I decided I want some additional defensive space around the Hobbithole. I will at it when the sun rises. Cheer up Doomers,it only hurts while you breathe!
Tom, I finally understand the wisdom of minding my own business.
My brother, another knife catcher, is working with the owner/contractor of the lot next door to his Dallas rental, to build a house and detached MIL unit. My brother and his wife will live in the house, and our mom will live in the MIL. I wish them all well. Three years on CR tell me he'll be underwater before he moves in, and that they'll all be back in a rental in a few years.
I'm keeping my mouth shut.
Feckless Ness wrote:
About that spare bedroom you have, Feckless...
Feckless Ness wrote:
Dallas rental,
Is he going far out on a limb to do this? Dallas has a reputation for being less over-blown than the left coast.
picosec wrote:
... rent it out and make some money with it before an unemployed relative discovers it.
Cue more krugman derangement syndrome.
The fact that kruggles was one of the few economists who called out the housing bubble, moronic wars against the wrong people, and the tax credit for the oligarchs (bush tax cuts) does not give the austerians even an iota of pause.
Its ok, Ben's gonna pay our bonuses!
LOL, pico. Three spares, actually. Four, if you count the one I'll vacate when they come live with me and I move to an apartment.
Maybe monetary policy isn't the solution to everything under the sun, including insufficient employment and insufficient demand at the zero bound. I happen to dislike fiscal policy here too, but I can understand why Krugman would advocate it.
For the historians re: the
zeitgeist, Nepal has formally had to ban imports of gold because their foreign exchange reserves were being depleted by heavy buying. When NPR had the gall to host a guest who suggested there could be a gold bubble, they were roundly and soundly criticized by people from Milan, MI to Moore, OK, who promptly threatened to reduce their donations to NPR for hosting an infidel like this.
BERNAMA - Nepal Bans Gold Imports Due To Continous Pressure On Foreign Currency Reserves
Is gold a bubble waiting to burst? | Marketplace From American Public Media
yuan wrote:
You forget that he actually called for a housing bubble as a means to resuscitate the economy after dot-bomb. That turned out nicely, didn't it?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Or brick it up!
Fluffy the Obese Persian Cat wrote:
Hell yeah.
of all the great capitals in the world NYC remains *sui generis. *
...
yuan wrote:
He always puts it as a battle between the austerians and the profligates ( my term
) - its a FALSE dichomtomy ! there's a freakin' third set of critics - the ones who say - to put it impolitely : "Screw them - Let it stick to the owners of the shares AND bonds, real estate, derived instruments based on them - insurance taken out ON The derived instruments" - they took the risk -they take the hit. It will STILL be a once and done effort.
Kruggles ignores these critics.
MiTurn wrote:
it's a question of application. once deflation sets in a major way stimulus loses its sting proportionally...
It's an example of a monolithic kleptocracy that can't put down the debt crackpipe. Like ours.
greenchutes wrote:
Have you been to Japan or been involved in their government? From my few months working there and several good friends there, I really don't think that's a fair description of their country or the reasons they undertook repeated Keynesian stimulus packages, or tried monetary policy action after action(and they've been insisting to us for some time now that it really doesn't help -- wish we'd listened).
TJ and The Bear wrote:
"Dr. K, what is the diagnosis?"
"it's obviously alcohol poisoning"
"What you suggest we do, Dr. K?"
"What we do every time this happens, pinky, we give em another drink!"
CR wrote:
While both real hourly compensation and productivity fall.
As Krugman said, this is going to be "inconceivably ugly."
Nope, my personal travel never included Japan, though I've worked with them, known a few, have friends with spouses, etc, and, of course, read a bit on it.
"Kleptocracy" probably isn't accurate. It's really unreconstructed 15th century feudalism, we're the kleptocrats.
mp wrote:
reminds me of the definition of a moderate according to an old right winger - a man's drowning twelve feet out in a lake and you extend him a six foot branch...
RockyR wrote:
PK must absolutely worship Greenspan.
i wonder how i get my llc to qualify for this:
White House considers pre-midterm package of business tax breaks to spur hiring
i'm schizo tonight, i tells ya!
White House: No second stimulus being considered
| Reuters
RockyR wrote:
It's a branding thing. They never wanted the term stimulus to take hold in the first place because it isn't the most pleasant word and hasn't got the greatest connotations. That ship's sailed now for the first one, but they can try to manage the message on subsequent ones better.
ndk wrote:
you're right! it invokes memories of the clinton administration. very insightful, ndk.
what now, CR?
well, and I'm not being cynical here, it has been clear since Lehman failed that the Fed and the Federal govt have decided that they have a different dual mandate
1.) keep the banking system solvent
2.) full employment
it has turned out, in this balance sheet recession, that barring absolutely massive stimulus (which was never going to happen politically)it was only possible to do one of the two, and they chose the first option.
the third camp, pointed out rather forcefully here would have solved #2, but hurt #1...
montas ankle wrote:
You tell me. Also please define what the Keynesian policies were and when they failed. When did they try an economic philosophy you agreed with and what successes or failures were achieved? Going on twenty years for Japan, pretty sure they have tried just about everything to fix their economy. Why have they failed? I'll give you a hint, it has nothing to do with stimulus spending and Keynes economic philosophy.
Be good if we could do away with the Keynesian claptrap in describing stimulus spending. How about we just agree that what is being argued is a socialist or capitalist response to our economic ills. Government deficit spending on programs that benefit our people or deficit spending on bailing out business and finance and waging endless war. Why not move past either label and just find solutions that work regardless of all the accompanying history?
Regulation or deregulation? Free market capitalism or crony capitalism? Both are a way to argue who gets to collect the winnings and dictate the terms. All are false in premise and execution.
Better yet, how about a realization that the real world bears little resemblance to to either political belief system and both have failed for remarkably similar reasons. Spend my tax money on saving my country, feeding it's people, providing health care to all. Stop deficit spending on FIRE bail outs, propping up failed institutions and useless wars fought under false pretenses. Invest in anything that can be pointed to and shown to better our communities and give our children a future. A good future where they aren't held hostage to fear and the price of oil or the FOMC manipulating the interest rate and pretending the FED is benefiting this country as an entirety and not just a select few.
If you want Krugman's take on Japan read this:
http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/japans_trap.pdf
If you want the counter argument read this:
http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp298.pdf
If you just wanted to score a quick point against whatever belief system you are afraid is ruining this country than read neither and disregard this post.
RockyR wrote:
methinks few former poli sci majors hang out here... some of you are as dense politically as say Albert Speer but at least he showed elan whereas ...
But now what? Unemployment is still too high ...
Oh please, think outside the box. High unemployment is so passe'. Think of it as "Selective Desaturation."
Krugman didn't "call" this financial crisis. He was predicting every year of the Bush Administration out of pure partisanship that there would be a recession. If I predict recession every year, eventually I'll be right too. He never described the method or means of how the recession unfolded.
The consequences of our massive QE program and wasteful spending may be years away, but the day of reckoning will come. Whether we suffer high inflation, poor growth, or continuing deficits, we will pay for this debt eventually.
The spending wasn't the slightest bit stimulating, with a multiplier below 1 on nearly all of the spending and close to zero on about 30% of it. When the multiplier is near zero, there is almost a dollar for dollar crowding out. The entire growth in second quarter personal income is attributable to transfer payments. Wages, dividends, interest, and rents all declined. How long can the patient live on $1 trillion per year of life support?
Running deficits now wouldn't have been so bad if states and the federal government hadn't run deficits during the boom. Does anyone have the Iraq War to blame California's deficit on? How about NJ, IL, NY, AZ?
Both of the wars cost less in nine years than the stimulus did in one year according to the CBO.
This recession is all about debt-driven growth encouraged by government, and debt-driven recovery from more government isn't the answer. Homebuyer Tax Credit, Cash for Clunkers, bailing out banks and prodigal states, futile modification efforts, extended incentives to not find work, subsidies for overpriced energy, subsidies for highly leveraged FHA loans, subsidies for SBA loans with 90% guaranties for lenders and waivers of insurance premiums, spending on unnecessary public works.
It's actually difficult to find ANY part of the stimulus which hasn't been roundly criticized on this blog for inefficiency and ineffectiveness. And the only defense is that we didn't waste twice as much?
Externalized Costs wrote:
How quaint, it is almost as if you believe there's a connection between tax revenue and federal spending in a fiat economy.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I think you are, continually, confusing a description with a prescription.
Krugman, as I recall, noted that a housing bubble would provide resuscitation, which was Greenspan's recommendation.
I don't think Krugman advocated it as a correct solution.
Feckless Ness wrote:
No, no. I try to point to a housing blog and suggest this might help the search. Always positive. CR just gives normal people the willies, if they get it at all.
IF Keynsianism were done properly. Fiscal stimulus on the economic side targeted to infrastracture, some sort of back to work program. And on the political side nationalizing the banks, removing management, wiping out the stock holders and forcing a haircut on the bondholders. Then it might work.
What the experience in both Japan and the US show is that the only political and societal will available is to throw money in a non-targeted, non-growth oriented, special interest group way. With absolutely no will to remove the entrenched interests on the political side.
Full keynsianism has never been tried in either the US or Japan and will probably never be tried.
Which is why we will eventually get the austerian method. But it won't be by choice, it will be forced on us eventually and will be hard and ugly and painful because we didn't choose this path and aren't prepared as a society.
Pithy. Thanks.
Laptop battery is dying. Probably a sign to go to bed. I'm a one step and rest thinker so it's probably best. G'night.
RockyR wrote:
Nice catch. This is NOT a stimulus - its a:
I waited with bated breath to hear what term they use. Will we heap the same ignominy on them as we did Bush and his "surge", on Clinton..
We need to do what the satirists did in the UK - A nuclear reactor leaked and lots of bad publicity resulted at the power station called Windscale in the late 50s - as the nuclear power debate hotted up in the early 80s, the poobahs tried to expunge this record by renaming that place Sellafield. But it was forever referred to as:
"Windscale aka Sellafield" - the two terms became synonymous.
steinly wrote:
You can interpret his statements as you like...
http://blog.mises.org/10153/krugman-did-cause-the-housing-bubble/
For the benefit of mr kite, there's gonna be a show tonight on trampoline...
If you aren't willing to make fundamental changes to our political/financial system then yes the only option is blow another buble until you can't blow anymore. And then fall apart and rebuild.
Deleted
My glod, we've been over this debate how many times now? And we seem to make no progress. The one thing that is missing consistently is that not all stimulus is equal. Look at it this way. You have a massive shock to the system, yes, because of overindebtedness and overpriced assets. Unless you plan on figuring out a way to recreate a credit bubble, which Id say you cannot, except maybe in China, then your options are already limited. Obviously monetary policy is pushing on a string, so you ran that up as far as you can, and can debate whether QE1 was a success or not, and whether QE2 will be less of a success. But you cant make those arguments in a vacuum, because they occurred with stimulus, TARP etc. Very hard to disaggregate the effects.
Nevertheless, you are left with a dilemma. Aggregate demand fell initially why? It wasnt first the layoffs. That was the second round effect from the end of the credit bubble. But both the end of the credit bubble and the resulting UE is permanent, lets just say. Those construction jobs arent coming back and the manufacturing jobs have been disappearing long before the credit bubble. So you have a generalized problem of a skills and jobs mismatch, which points to malinvestment. What do I mean? Well, we're throwing money at building houses instead of educating people to do jobs in the future that the USA was already becoming. So we made that mistake already.
My question is, why, with the stimulus, do we compound it? What do I mean? Well, think of it this way. A guy loses his construction job, that aint coming back for a long long time, given the overhang of supply (barring bulldozers) in the housing market. So how long do you plan to fill that income gap with stimulus? And how? Do you throw money at the states so they can give him a job for one year to repave roads that dont need repaving? No. But thats what we did. And in a year, he needs more money from the Feds to get another job paving another road that doesnt need it. Malinvestment. And does near zero to fix the structural problem of a workforce that isnt equipped for our future. But worse, it requires continual stimulus, for a very long time. Now Romer might have had it right...we do three times the stimulus, over three times the lifespan, and we can probably get things back on track, and muddle through the adjustment period.
But then you say, what about the bond vigilantes, right? Well, this is where you get into dollar devaluation and the issues of standard of living for those in the future, and the equity of bailing out the present at the future's cost. Because even if we decide we dont have a dollar and bond market problem, the future gets penalized because of the present's profligacy.
So what was the right thing to do ultimately comes down to who we wanted to pick up the unavoidable task for the mess we are in, and what policy actually minimizes the costs. And those two things arent separable. It might be that a lower cost now is achieved by putting more of the cost on future taxpayers. But policy in the future could be changed so as to clawback and redistribute.
But it is my assertion that the path we chose was one of the worst. Insufficient stimulus, heavy costs, and bailing out of the people that were those most responsible, the bankers, etc. The worst part is that this path, with its poorly targeted stimulus, bailing out of people who are squirreling away the money, and failure to adequately plan for the length and depth of the problem, plus a lack of understanding what the structural problems with the US economy were before the crisis, puts us nearly back where we started. A mostly insolvent banking sector, restricted lending, still high UE, little to no progress in fixing the housing market, bankers that have concentrated their power and will surely bring about another crisis in time, and a future workforce that is even less prepared for what lies ahead, but can drive its beat up old cars on nicely paved roads, if it can afford the gas. Basically the output gap is still there. If we didnt make any progress on jobs, plus 3 million new entrants came into the workforce since the recession started (and never ended IMO) then we are digging a bigger hole.
The best we can hope for at this point is a massive new underclass, ruled by the new and more empowered overlords, and we all wait for the next crisis when UE hits 20% (u3, its already 20% now u6) and the pitchforks come out. Its astonishing that we have made the choices we have made. It points to an incredibly dysfunctional political system, and makes for a very depressing outlook.
GDD9000 wrote:
??? Bush Sr called it "voodoo economics" 30 years ago. We chose that path. There really isn't that much more to it. It's only astonishing if you missed the past few decades.
Hmmm, I wonder......did Krugman look into his crystal ball or shake the magic 8 ball? Or the time tested coin toss of heads or tails that determined his fortune telling brillance!
Yes, it's easy to make poor choices when you can't really imagine the consequences. But when you are living the consequences finally, and you make the same stupid decisions again? That is insanity.
Savvy Jamie isn't "living the consequences".
No he isn't. None of the decision makers or power that be are, probably not even dick(head) fuld. Nonetheless, they should be able to see what they have wrought. I think that they just dont care. There will one day be a price for that insensitivity. Hopefully it will involve pitchforks and the like.
time for a smoove exit
Duke
GDD9000 wrote:
Geez, GDD, don't hold back -- tell us how you really feel.
Wow, poic, you really are restraining yourself!
GDD9000 wrote:
Fully 140 million americans believe that humanity didn't exist 10,000 years ago. Do you really think they'll be reaching for the pitchforks any time soon?
I just find it ridiculous that we are having this debate at this point. It's like there is a giant lava flow coming down the hill after a volcano, and the townspeople are arguing over whether the last of the aristocracy has been airlifted, and whether we gave them enough water for the 2 hr helicopter ride, and are furiously pumping their well to fill up canteens for them.
The proper thing to do would have been to build a retaining wall out of the aristrocracy and all of their belongings.
greenchutes wrote:
Well, I'm looking around, and I'm not sure any humanity exists now.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Ok, how does this work for you: Krugman felt the Fed was dragging its feet on heading off a cyclical recession, because there was political desire to have the recession be underway before the '00 election.
The Fed then kept interest rates too low too long to aggressively head off a cyclical recession before the '04 elections, and the housing bubble went nuclear, when it could have been partially deflated.
Greenspan kept raising the interest rate through 2000 and then crashed it in early 2001 and kept it below 2% through 2004.
I think mises.org rather overestimates Krugman's influence on policy in the 2001-2005 window.
That's almost word-for-word from Frank's "What's the matter with Kansas" - which was written years before the "crisis".
TJ even I can occasionally be on topic
Plus I've got you know who on ignore so I'm not tempted 
edit: Jesus H Christ this i
BrickPhone keyboard sucksWell Ive never read that book, though Ive heard of it.
Sounds like you live in west LA.
Uhhh, no.It's not just LA anymore.
As a libertarian, I have very mixed feelings about the Norquist/Koch programming of idiot southerners and midwesterners. But it isn't a new thing.
That was to sd...
greenchutes, you have mixed feelings... please share the positive side of your mixed feelings regarding
greenchutes wrote:
Yeah, I was just having some pun.
Well, hopefully they're being tricked into supporting legal weed and a totally isolationist foreign policy, as well as an awareness of the malevolent priestly caste behind our non-economic policies. But, alas, this is just a hope.
steinly wrote:
No doubt, but IMHO PK was certainly campaigning for a housing bubble.
GDD9000 wrote:
If it makes you feel any better, they're still rehashing GD I after seventy years, with no end in sight.
GDD9000 wrote:
You are on form ! I of course thoroughly approve of the pitchforks brigade. What was it that Oliver Cromwell said, via Twitter, in 1653 - "We're done here
"
Well ok, the real stuff was:
I could get behind that even as a non-libertarian, but do Koch/Norquist advocate that? It always seemed to me (perhaps I am wrong) that Norquist and the Koch bros. like big government fine as long as it is military or prison-industrial. Am I wrong?
GDD9000 wrote:
FWIW I agree with you, but hey, we're all just MMQBing this thing. For the most part we all saw it coming, and sometimes it's just better to blow off steam about TPTB obvious idiocy then to dwell on the gloomier (doomier?) aspects of our collective future.
"No doubt, but IMHO PK was certainly campaigning for a housing bubble."
to be fair PK has also campaigned for real fundamental change to the finance system including quasi nationalization of the banking system during the worst of the crisis. I'm pretty sure he also pushed for a haircut to bondholders and wiprout if the stock holders.
poic wrote:
Better to ask forgiveness than permission?
It bothers me that we cant just say, look, we f-ed up. We have a huge hole to fill. Who is going to pay for it? And then have a debate about who should be responsible. Then point some f-ing fingers at those people. Instead we coddled them, and pointed to them as saviors, instead of villians.
It really isnt that hard to figure out. Instead, we're debating whether there is a hole to fill or whether it will magically fill itself if we let the people responsible go about their business of setting up a system that will eventually make the hole even bigger. It's absurd, really.
Despite everything that has happened, oddly enough, no one is responsible or accountable. With no accountability, we cant possibly go about fixing this. I mean, the finreg??? Give me a break. That is like saying that the alignment was out on the car when a drunk driver drove through a crowd and killed 100 people.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
MMQBing? Hell, we're all taking turns at the telestrator pointing out the open man.
That's the billion-dollar question - the impetus for low-tax and zero-regulation policy is obvious for a big, profitable polluter. Why ally themselves with genuine patriot potheads like myself?
? 
poic, "If you aren't willing to make fundamental changes to our political/financial system...."
Is it to late for the president to step up and address the financial take over of our Country. If he proposed Changes at this late date, after ignoring, even turning a blind eye , toward the abuseses of the PTB, could be convince a dieing nation that he is on the level and really wants to institute a "For the People" Government.
I'm not sure, I wonder.
No prohably not, He has made it all to clear he is for Corporate strength over the people. After all, he knows who "buttered his bread".
With the Congress (Dem and Repub) clearly against any substansial Regulatory change or stopping the oligarcy from controlling the people, why would be be willing to bare themslves to the public on the issue, why risk political suicide.
A "Profiles in courage" monment maybe.
BS. I dont buy that for a second. It's a convenient cover story...no one new. Hell, I lost my f-ing job pointing this shit out to TPTB in the company I worked for.
This is called massive confict of interest and system failure. It's just that the people that needed to see it profited from not doing so. And why? Because they knew on the other side that someone else would pick up the cost. Massively broken system. It deserves to go up in flames.
Who cares, they are all frauds. Every last one of them. Every politician and political party is a fraud. Every newspaper is a fraud. No one really knows what the hell is going on. Someday it will all get exposed to much embarrassment.
I don't get what's going to happen to America. All the forces are going to fight deflation... can it really be avoided?
Shh. You guys - Krugman reads this blog.
GDD9000 wrote:
And it will.
Speed wrote:
no worries. He has me on ignore.
"No prohably not, He has made it all to clear he is for Corporate strength over the people. After all, he knows who "buttered his bread"."
I would say that it's incredibly, incredibly hard to not be impacted by those you surround yourself with. I think we deceive ourselves if we think we wouldn't be sucked in by the same group. If I had the same group of people advising me and sounding entirely logical I'd probably make many of the same choices.
On the other hand ultimately we all choose who we surround ourselves with and Obama has noone other than himself fir his choices. Same as any of us.
Hello, the whole world is collapsing under debt!
When the Republicans re-take Congress, things will get really interesting... "let's extend tax cuts... oh, we also have to raise the debt limit to $15T..." are you guys ready for that tea partiers?
No, to answer my own question.
He would have acted when he had a clear public mandate and support.
Your Right, Its going down in flames . Maybe not this time, but it's going down.
poic wrote:
Exclude me out. He's an empty suit.
It's not going down alone. If we have outright global depression, I'm glad I'm in the US and not Ireland, Estonia, Russia, China, Greece, Japan....
Let's see, who did Obama choose for his Treasury Secretary? Oh, that's right, Timmy Geithner.
Raise your hand if you know that TARP is just as much Geithner's baby as it is Paulson and Bernankes... what's that... you didn't know? No one has trumpeted this around? That Geithner was around when we forced the 9 biggest banks to suck from the government tit?
How about this, do you know that access to the TLGP was used as the carrot to get those 9 banks onto the CPP? You didn't know that either? Well, YLSP just broke that news on Calculated Risk (it actually came from Treasury folks speaking more than a year ago, but no one actually bothered to listen to them speak).
That's right folks, the TLGP was used as the carrot to entice the 9 banks into TARP. Treasury didn't tell us that, and I'm not sure its actually come from anyone in Congress (I'm certain Paulson won't be going in front of them again). Maybe someone can ask Geithner about it.
poic, "I would say that it's incredibly, incredibly hard to not be impacted by those you surround yourself with."
Ya, it really is that simple. The Presidency is to big for one man. Truman is a classic example, the trick is to surround your self with the right people. The Party made sure he was surrounded be the people THEY wanted, and I am not saying the Repub's are any better. They have shown themselves to be just as CONTROLLED by the moneied top 1%.
"poic wrote:
Same as any of us.
Exclude me out. He's an empty suit."
I've been in companies going through mass layoffs or huge f-ups on major software projects. A huge number of people show another side of themselves when their ass/job/reputation is truly on the line.
It's kind of like the whole 90% of the population always thinks they're in the 50% that is above average.
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
Yeah, now if he'd just brought along some Chicago boys... um, maybe not.
Ooooh. This on-topic quote just hit my In Box.
"In all life one should comfort the afflicted, but verily, also, one should afflict the comfortable, and especially when they are comfortably, contentedly, even happily wrong." -John Kenneth Galbraith, economist (1908-2006)
YLSP wrote:
I remember that.
poic wrote:
Exactly, and the bigger they talk the more they display their complete lack of self awareness...
Interesting study, aside from the photoshopped hair.
Workers Absorbed Increases in Health Insurance Costs - NY Times
Or has anyone else seen this yet.
Duane Morse. Chief Counsel of TARP.
"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Financial Institutions"
I direct your attention to the bottom slide on page 3 and the top slide on page 4.
Some people haven't forgotten...
One of my favorite books on politics/economics that explained to me a lot of what is going on is this short book by Gailbraith.
Amazon.com: Customer Reviews: The Economics of Innocent Fraud: Truth For Our Time
Why the hell are health insurances costs rising when the cost of everything else is deflating! scamscamscamscamscamscamscam!?
One of the unintended consequences of Obamacare is going to be a cheap, innovative, health insurance company that blows away the competition (thing a "Google" of health insurers).
But that's okay, the GOP is going to scare everyone into begging for a repeal because we need to keep all those workers, who are producing a tangible good and not a tax on the rest of society with their jobs. I hate listening to right-wing-radio anymore because they are just as protectionist as the unions who they claim are protectionists. If I have to hear any more health sector workers whining because their company might lay them off or they'll lose their jobs or people whining about how jobs are going to be lost because this halth insurance company can't compete or sell their products, I'm going to puke.
We need to build things we can export and sell to other countries.
My son just signed up for kindergarten and the amount of paperwork is funny. He has to sign that he reads and understands the parent-student handbook as well as the internet acceptable use policy? He's in flaming KINDERGARTEN!
My summary to him, "Son, be good, have fun, listen to your teacher." I can't believe that school forms aren't customized to Kindergarten's at least... we didn't even teach my son he needs to have a fancy John Hancock. Now I understand why gobs of parents are thinking homeschooling is a great option.
I'm sorry, but this is how society thanks parents for having kids who are going to be depended on to fund our ponzi retirement scheme... you get to send them to crappy public schools... (but I guess the boomers don't care since they already put their kids, like me through public school... okay thats a bitter cheap shot against the boomer "I got mine, $#@ you! mentality). And maybe it's not so crappy I just didn't realize how "cattle car" it kind've felt like... I guess you have to figure out how to teach 20+ students at a time... just being at that school felt pretty damn cold and impersonal... no wonder kids have so many issues... of course we put him in a K-8 school as well which adds a bit more to the stress for us... and we're supposedly in a decent school district. Can't imagine how kids who aren't in decent districts feel...
YLSP, " He has to sign that he reads and understands the parent-student handbook as well as the internet acceptable use policy?"
Are You Kidding? This world we live in is getting crazier and crazier, KINDERGARDEN? Talk about covering thier ass!!!!!!
YLSP wrote:
Yes, I went through the legal terms with my second grader, for about two paragraphs,....just for fun. I thought about protesting that they didn't make it comprehensible enough for the age group, but that would just add another idiot cost onto another idiotic form.
Interesting study, aside from the photoshopped hair.
Well now we know who hired Conan O'Brien...
I'm just gonna comfort myself with some old Glenn Beck shows from 3-4 years ago... I'm trying to figure out when he went all evangelical and unitey on us. On March 1 2007, he was talking about the war and "fighting to win"...
He's a unprincipled, opportunist, with the intelligence of a tumbleweed. In the land of the blind, the cyclops is king.
I'm just gonna comfort myself with some old Glenn Beck shows from 3-4 years ago...
Pull up some of his radio stuff from the Terry Schiavo thing. That bit where he kills a puppy on the air while sobbing at the top of his lungs is a classic.
It's either that or listening to Cummings call Kaskhari a chump... I actually think I'm going to put Kashkari back on... why didn't they ever treat Timmy that way?
Dammit I love listening to this...
"Mr. Kashkari... in the neighborhood I grew up in... Baltimore... one of the things that you made sure you would do is make sure people don't think you're a chump... all these people are lined up... and are they saying... 'Is Kashkari a chump?' ... I'm not saying that's what they think.... I'm just wondering, does that go through your head, or is it me?"
Kashkari was actually great and prepped well to go and defend all the BS they were doing... bravo man...
"Nor can we afford to be chumps..." best damn quote from the financial crises...
Now I can queue up Paulson talking about threatening Lewis not to invoke the MAC.
Congressman: "Did you make a threat?"
Paulson: "I wouldn't characterize it in that manner, I did not make a threat."
Actually, better yet is Bernanke.
Congressman: "Mr. Bernanke, what did you talk to Paulson about on December 15th?"
Bernanke: "I talked to Paulson about threatening Ken Lewis..."
Congressman: "So you made the threat?"
Bernanke: "No sir. I didn't make any threat. I thought about making a threat, I talked to Paulson about making a threat, but I'd like to point out that I made no threat."
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
If parents didn't continually sue school districts it wouldn't be necessary. That's just a fact.
Speed wrote:
I really doubt it. Too much chaff and not enough wheat, for someone with a real job. He likely reads CR, but not HCN. Sadly he was on a roll, until he got to the end, where he takes a hard left turn into lib-land, and just outright wrong.
"The actual lessons of 2009-2010, then, are that scare stories about stimulus are wrong, [He was going great, until right here.] and that stimulus works when it is applied. But it wasn’t applied on a sufficient scale. And we need another round."
Stimulus is an effort in futility, unless the bad actors are wiped out. It just gets Hoovered up by all the debtors. It'll give you a nice bump, but then all the debt and bad practices drag the economy back down. This ain't over until the TBTF are BK.
YLSP wrote:
Timmy and O are BFFs... You don't go after the bosses pet, w/o taking some heat.
GDD9000 wrote:
So...
...why didn't you?
YLSP wrote:
The guy is just an entertainer. It's his shtick, He is all over the map, putting on his show. There is no underlying ideology, nor consistency to his madness. He is a master at reading his current audience, and then preaching to the choir.
Blackhalo wrote:
He might just skim,...since he's quoted Nemo a couple times. But I agree, there's no way he reads every thread, or even every other thread.
MiTurn wrote:
I've said this before, one thing to keep in mind is that Japan has demographic issues to contend with. So any comparison between Japan and elsewhere needs to take that into account. I like to refer to two types of economic growth, smart and stupid. Improvements in efficiency and productivity, smart. Increased economic activity because there are more people this year than last, dumb.
Japans population isn't getting any bigger, yet their workforce is getting older and aging out of the workforce. That presents a drag on the economy. Thats a flip from the 60-80's when the work force was entering their prime productive years and not having very many children. Think of it in terms of a natural rate of growth thats leveled off.
I really can't comment on how effective their fiscal policies have been. But on the surface they've avoided what happened to Russia and Argentina. And they managed to protect their industrial base unlike the US. And with an aging population it's doubtful that they can expect the same growth as they had during the boom years. So yeah failed? No. Best they could have been done, no.
Blackhalo wrote on Fri, 9/3/2010 - 2:48 am (in reply to...)
Speed wrote:
Shh. You guys - Krugman reads this blog.
I really doubt it. Too much chaff and not enough wheat, for someone with a real job. He likely reads CR, but not HCN. Sadly he was on a roll, until he got to the end, where he takes a hard left turn into lib-land, and just outright wrong.
Krugman wrote in one of his columns that CR is his "go to" guy on housing (or something to that effect..) It's a matter of public record. But, of course, you can believe what you want.
Now what? We elect a Republican house in 2 months, cancel unemployment benefits like they've been itching to do, get rid of any talk of stumulus, and get the Depression started in earnest.
Morning doomers
Here's a curiosity that just came to my attention:
Futures DJIA Chart Daily
Pull up the daily chart, and look at the Dow index futes Commitment of Traders $10 multiples since around June 10. Large/small traders fused and flatlined positive, commercial hedging flatlined negative.
So, what say ye? Statistical artifact, change of data/measurement, change of product offering, regs, or other?
C
traderwalt wrote:
As I said, I believe he reads CR, but not HCN.
Counterpointer, I make a market in the electronic $5 Dow futures. Volume in the $10 Dow is very low now. Also, computer programs hedge the 10 dollar contract against the $5 contract when the spread is one tick. (They buy one $10 Dow at 8329 and sell two $5 Dow futures for 8330, for instance) This accounts for almost all of the volume in the $10 Dow. The computer offsets both large and small trades. Is it a large trader or a small one? It's both.
traderwalt - much appreciated, and I thought it could be something like that. Any comment on the timing (around June 10), and the disparity of COT fluctuations between the $10 (ie flat) and the $5 (ie stil fluctuating, but even that looks artificial)?
C
Counterpointer wrote:
I was thinking the same thing, Great explanation from TW, but the flat-line sure seems odd. Has the market evaporated and all that is left is the HFTs v. the 401Ks?
June 10 was the middle of the "roll" period when traders and hedgers switched from the June to the September contract. People with positions in the $10 June Dow would probably off set their positions in the $5 June Dow contracts. The $10 Dow contract would remain open until the contract expires at which time it would be off set by the two $5 Dow contracts. Traders don't offset the contracts until expiration when they offset automatically because they may unwind the position in the course of trading before the expiration. Offsetting the contracts before then could involve paying an extra commission.
New York State's pension fund no longer thinks it can get an 8% return on investments. Their new 7.5% goal seems doable though, assuming they value safety and can travel back in time to 1995.
New York State Pension Fund Opens Wormhole! (Musical Tribute)
I was thinking the same thing, Great explanation from TW, but the flat-line sure seems odd. Has the market evaporated and all that is left is the HFTs v. the 401Ks?
Blackhalo, the market in the nearby contract in the $5 Dow is active and pretty deep although not as active or deep as the S&P futures. The total volume of the $5 Dow contract is frequently over 100,000 per day.
Stagflationary Mark wrote:
Well, if we ever get hyperinflation, all that is old, could be new again...
Thanks again, traderwalt. Still has me wondering.
US index futes seem to be pushing new highs for the overnight session, albeit .1% levels.
Roubini now heavily hedged on every comment it seems:
Roubini Says Dollar, Franc May Beat Gold in Recession (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
He and Niall Ferguson are both quoted as being in Cernobbio, Italy, which appears to be hosting yet another international gabfest on the state of the world economic and financial. I see there was one Sept 5-7, 2008. Might have a looksee for some quotes, as there are bound to be some pre-LEH howlers.
C
Blackhalo wrote:
I lost my pension to hyperinflation and all I got was this lousy wheelbarrow!
Ah, goldmine, see press collation linked, especially FP, Sept 8, 2008, Joaquin Almunia talking up the global fight against inflation with high ECB rates and fiscal virtue, and AP, Sept 6, 2008 in which Jim O'Neill of
is quoted in run-on paras to sentiment that suggests sub-prime was contained and the great saving graces of decoupling were near at hand:
http://www.ambrosetti.eu/_modules/download/download/en/rassegna_stampa/2008%20Sett%20Scen%20RS%20Intl_intera_INGL.pdf
C
If you had major insanity/genius now would be the perfect time for a third party. Run a local grassroots org and then go for the White House. The plan? Crash the entire system and out of the disorder you would restore order. Your order. Do it right and your party would be "The Party" for at least two generations.
When exactly did you lose your soul, America?
When exactly did you lose your soul, America?
June 23, 1946
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
So, what's the unAmerican part? The right to sue, or the right to get out from under lawsuits by eliminating the source of the suits?
I certainly hope you applied for SS benefits ASAP, a couple years ago, while the getting was good...
William S Hart dies?
Clarence Thomas born?
C
White House considers pre-midterm package of business tax breaks to spur hiring
More spending on infrastructure, particularly transportation projects, is also under discussion. But it would be easier for a package composed purely of tax cuts to "avoid the stain of a 'bailout' or 'stimulus' label," said one official familiar with the talks, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the deliberations were private.
Jump Start 4.0
nova wrote:
Nova, why bother with a third party? Every indication is that there will either be a continuation of the current conservative economic policies, or else there will be even more conservative policies, more tax-cutting for the rich, lower income for the majority of Americans, and an increasing health crisis. I don't think that private costs can be dumped on the environment without causing physical explosions anymore. I don't know there will be a revolution, but there will be people milling about, a higher death rate, an ever lower birth rate.
Besides, the only grassroots movement that has a chance right now is one that is ready to target and punish illegal immigrants, in extreme ways. You endanger your soul and your humanity going along with that movement.
I'm hoping the increasing disorder and the abandonment of marginalized lands is going to provide a different sort of opportunity for some environmental work. Particularly if some of these abandoned strip malls and housing developments begin to deteriorate.
More from America's lost soul:
Justice Dept. Sues Sheriff Arpaio
As the law-and-order crowd loves to chant, if you've got nothing to hide, you don't have anything to fear from being stopped and searched.
I don't do a lot of swinging so much nowadays, but I don't remember "a safe surface" being of any importance whatsoever in the scheme of things, when I swang.
All I had below me was dirt...
REBear quoted:
Of course, because "bailout" or "stimulus" only applies to programs directed at the poor and middle class. If directed toward the rich business sector, that's OK.
MB wrote:
The die has already been cast. I have to change my mindset to catch up with that reality.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
If you were a kid today, you'd have a safe surface below you, and parents who sue.
Deflation of discretionary, inflation in non-discretionary. Tax cuts aren't going to help this and neither will targeted stimulus packages with a one-off affect which proves to be temporary and 'nascent'. Like Liz says it is just 'flation.
Wheat Rises on Russian Export Ban; Mozambique Riots Over Food - Bloomberg.com
....
“People are wondering where all the grain is going to be coming from if Russia ceases to be any kind of major exporter and this uncertainty and risk has pushed everybody to put more money back into the wheat market,” F.O Licht’s Flury said.
Speculators including hedge funds increased their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, in Chicago wheat futures by 9.9 percent in the week ended Aug. 24, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
World wheat production will reach 645.7 million tons in the 2010-11 season, the USDA said last month, reducing its previous forecast of 661.1 million tons.
Germany’s grains harvest fell 12 percent to 43.8 million tons this year after “extreme weather,” the country’s Agriculture Ministry said today.
I've never seen a swing set that didn't have dirt below it, i.e. safe surface
No. I don't think the current political system will continue much longer. It is the mirror to the heart of the financial system. When one goes so will the other.
The same failure is reflected in every major institution or company in this country.
The Navy is yet another mirror in a room of them.
Information Dissemination
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You must be younger than I! It was blacktop when I was in school. I fell off the monkey bars one time and got a concussion. Went to the doctor. Nobody thought about suing in those days!
Having kids is nothing but an ordeal these days!
So no "great doubling" while the world burns? This is 'flation, right?
Roubini Says Dollar, Franc May Beat Gold in Recession (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I don't think "safe surface" means, in today's litigious climate, what you think it means.
20 years ago I would have never guessed Arizona would be such an embarrassment, but they've since surpassed my expoectations...
Pellice,
Heck when I was kid in Montana the school was next to a lumber mill. That was where we went to play. Every year we would lose a couple in the wood chipper. A lot of "Nubs," "Stubby" and "Gimpy" nicknames too
I saw that interview of the rep. candidate you posted. She made Palin look like a scholar. Maybe she should follow Palin's lead and do some hand writing.
Count Formaldehyde doesn't like the barbarous, so it's actually a tacit approval, of sorts.
meanwhile, in the country with the jobs and the wage increases. This was the word in May 2010.
And now in the second quarter
Rising tensions in poor countries over surging food costs! What could go wrong?
hey JD. My friend wants to buy physical silver and asked me for advice. I have none but figured you would, despite your preference for the relic.
In the picture, Roubini is in a blue shirt! Must be he's mellowing.
Ryanair’s O’Leary Ponders One-Euro Toilets, Standing Passengers - Bloomberg.com
Look into the mind of an amoral scumbag in this article.
...
Discomfort, Indignity
At the heart of the O’Leary philosophy is the idea that commercial air passengers are not delicate creatures whose repeat business depends on free pillows, blankets, and tea. Rather, they are hardy beasts -- parsimonious when buying a ticket, profligate once in the air -- willing to endure discomfort and indignity just so long as they get to their destination cheaply and with their suitcases.
The question hanging over the airline business and passengers alike is not whether the O’Leary Way will be further adopted by airlines scrambling for survival -- it is how far and fast his paradigm will spread.
In July 2002, passengers in England were boarding a Ryanair flight bound for Dublin when the pilot announced that the baggage handlers loading the plane were short-staffed. A major delay was imminent, the pilot said, unless people volunteered to move luggage. Soon after, a handful of passengers stepped out on the tarmac to heave bags onto the plane.
...
I'm with you JD, I'm now just an observer and happy that my indignities are chosen not forced...at least for now.
Arizona is a perfect example of the political system mirroring the financial system, in this case the housing bubble. Both are falling apart, a race to the bottom.
Was the breakdown of the governor @ the debate and after, any different than the precipitous decline of values in homes in the Grand Canyon state, Phoenix in particular?
Gooooooooood Moooooorning,
erati.
I almost always have to bag my own groceries at the store.
Which is nice because that way the canned goods are at the bottom of the bag and not on top of the bread or eggs.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I see that safety is no longer mentioned, either! I'm visualizing all those rickety third world buses. But, hey, permanent tax cuts for businesses and the richest. There is no goal beyond that.
nova
have you read Matterhorn yet? One of the things I took away from it was how much like a corporation the military was/is. Guys at the top making stupid moves to advance there careers and thinking nothing of the employees or what would happen to them.
the other thing was that I just bought some really nice tile for my hallway and it was made in Vietnam. Like many of the clothes I see in stores. Kill a few million people in a war, 30 years later you are trading partners.
I'd buy mostly .999 pure 1 troy ounce rounds & 10 troy ounce bars, privately made ones.
Some people like 'junk silver' (90% silver dimes-quarters-halves dated 1964 and before) but the amount of silver in each coin is an awkward amount, and @ times in the past, pure silver has been much more saleable than alloyed silver.
JD<
I know you loved the ponies at one time so I'm not surprised you have an opinion on the Grey Mare.
12th Percentile wrote:
Makes it all seem to have been so damned important, yes? 58,000 names on The Wall, but hey, we got cheap tile out of it.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Maybe that's why Slummy chickened out and sold some of his
futures, even though he "knows" it's going to
$30,000$1,650thanks. Can you give an idea what "privately made" means? I have an image of you pouring molten silver into buckets out in the great outdoors.
MB wrote:
I wonder what we'll be getting this time.
Did you guys see the "Victory in Iraq" parades the other day?
Boy howdy!
I had dinner with a friend this weekend who had recently been to Vietnam. He said it was strange and noticeable how there were no men of a certain age there.
War is a racket.
My most important opinion about the grey mare in comparison to the barbarous is one of mass.
The
to 
ratio is about 65 to 1 financially, but because gold is such a dense metal in comparison, the storage ratio is closer to 100-1.
You should give "Old Gimlet Eye" his due if you are going to use his phrase.
12th Percentile wrote:
You are most likely correct, 12th.
Eric wrote:
He had so many calls this past
is supposed to go up or down.
.
weakweek, that I'm not even sure ifAlthough I'm sure it's going to be good for
Over at Naked Capitalism is news that Fannie and Freddie have decided to speed up the foreclosure machine.
No more extend and pretend.
Imagine THAT
Imagine the society-wide and political effects of accelerated foreclosures
Imagine the market effects of accelerated price discovery!
Just in time for the November elections.
Fannie to crack down on foreclosure delays.
Why do any of you pay attention to Slum?
Is it some morbid curiosity as to what tripe will spill forth next or what?
Personally, I wish I had some hushpuppies and a shock collar.
What Krugman points out the lower bond interest rate, but misses the proximate cause that US Treasuries are being used as a "safe haven", so that low rate has nothing to do with the inflationary concern expressed during Stimulus III debates. He also ignores another concern during Stimulus III debates which was the crowding-out effect so much borrowing by the Federal government would have on private investment. Does anyone have easy numbers on what private investment has been doing since Stimulus III passed? Has it increased, or has all that capital gone into ultra-safe Treasury Bonds?
The only 1 ounce round made in the USA that's official is Silver Eagles struck by the U.S. Mint (they are very overvalued-avoid) and everything else is made by a private mint, of which there are dozens of/were.
There are literally hundreds of different designs, all worth more or less the same, here's one:
http://lainson.eu/eagle1.JPG
All 10 troy ounce ingots are made by private mints, the same ones that make 1 oz rounds.
Silver, Silver Bar, Silver Bars, Silver Bullion, Gold and More - APMEX.com
chapel_of_words wrote:
Isn't August setting records for corporate bond issuance? No crowding out here.
The fact that corporations are sitting on the cash indicates they have plenty of spare capacity. Do we want them to build factories to nowhere?
I spent a lifetime learning what Slumdog thinks he's learned in a few years, he has a clue, but he's barking up the wrong tree.
jd and hg
thanks. I'll pass along the word and might begin to dabble with the precious myself. I'm still coming to terms with the idea that I will never put money in the stock market again. It is a little harder than giving up the idea of the sky daddy but I think I'm there.
ksmithderm wrote:
. . . imagine a sharp about-face should these results prove disagreeable.
HomeGnome wrote:
I'm guessing prefab towers for electricity transmission.
Rajesh wrote:
August is a data point, and investments there will create future growth. Stimulus III was passed nearly 18 months ago, what was the effect over the last 18months. Asking them to build factories to nowhere is irrelevant to whether or not the borrowing that funded Stimulus III had a crowding out effect on private investment, of which corporate bond issuance may be a good measure. Do we have data over the last 18months? To effect unemployment now, we'd probably be looking at investments 6-12months prior?
Don't tap retirement fund to pay off mortgage Realty Q&A - MarketWatch
The math isn't that hard is it. What return are you getting in your 401K vs what is the interest you are paying on your principal for your home...which one wins? Which one is more durable? Which one is TANGIBLE?
Why would a country ban gold imports, unless their fiat currency wasn't sound?
12th Percentile wrote:
Yes, scary, just like Western Europe after World War I. An entire age cohort gone.
HomeGnome wrote:
The fun is watching him be wrong and right at the same time, yet still claiming victory.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It is mostly how he is saying it that is the problem. Like born again religious people, he believes that there is only one truth and that everything else is a lie. If someone doesn't share his belief, that person is an idiot and deserves what is coming to him.
Edit: and what Eric said.
Eric<
You're in Chi Town right?
Do you have any suggestions for a great slice of Chicago Style Pizza?
This is what a "near miss" looks like in hurricane terms...And "just" a Cat 2. This guy is hilarious BTW. He's an amateur hurricane chaser. He's in Buxton NC on Hatteras.
THE XTREME WEATHER CAM
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Well, paying off the house results in tangible savings as less cashflow out each month. 401k is future investment. Never put all your eggs in one basked. That sort of thing, diversify across multiple areas. The people who are so far underwater, they may perceive 401k as still having a better return than house payments.
amiramr0 wrote:
One of the more charitable aspects of religious certainty.
Financial Armageddon needs to borrow the
icon:
Financial Armageddon: Not Coming Back
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
amiramr0 wrote:
Yes, that's the route of the problem.
HomeGnome wrote:
Gino's East is the trite answer, but while they're good, I think they only do whole pies.
Other than that, I dunno.
amiramr0 wrote:
Sorry, was that in reference to Slumdog or Krugman?
lol...thanks CK. I love weather weenies. (takes one to know one)
12th Percentile wrote:
.......yeah. My age. Amazing how that works. We make promises and guarantees to a group of fellow human beings, get tired of it, then act bewildered that we were complicit in wiping out an entire generation........Oh......Good Morning!
Even though a pig is pending this story has me so pissed I am going to post and then repost it after the pig
Mariner Buys Interest in $760 Million Loan Portfolio From FDIC - Bloomberg.com
But you guys had most excellent kill-ratios, the televison set would inform us nightly, how you were doing.
LOL Nanoo. You should have seen him when he chased Alex into Mexico and the Federales sent him back. He got stuck on the beach as the surge was coming in. He has a helmet cam as well and wears kevlar...I almost peed myself I laughed so hard at him during Alex.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
news? what news?
(cowering in bunker against a +200,000/9.3 print)
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I've been a weather weenie since I was a kid. I love watching storms.
Eric wrote:
The funny thing is it can be a +400,000/10.5 and still be plausible...
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Good Morning
. Welcome to 
, already in progress.
amiramr0 wrote:
That's good for
, right?
....I'm ignorant enough to think Uncle Same can tinker with the numbers that are coming out in a few minutes. After the last two days, I imagine 'they'll' want to promote more "Recovery", sunshine and rainbows.....
dow futs right at UNCH
Re: Vietnam
Ding Dong,
Get the War it's Dominos!
Eric wrote:
(Looks at MarketWatch sees gold -.21%) Yup!
Following Big Gov numbers now, is like keeping a box score for a game that never happened.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Fantasy Football is big business, dude.
MOONSHOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thats a big fat maybe but highly dependent on many individual variables. It wouldn't be universally one way or another way. However, the goal of paying off that 30yr fixed before retirement got lost as valuations got pumped to the sky over the last 10 years. It was the setup for Armageddon to individuals who couldn't see though the thick veil promises of $$$$$s falling out of the sky covering their eyes. For people with resources and time and opportunity with secure income after paying off a mortgage, it could be a very sound option. It does require discipline and commitment and a view that's longer than 2 years and the next pump and dump scheme. The money saved can then be reallocated into whatever investments they choose (rather than whatever investment their company allows). Over time, the savings are substantial and also secures a basic need.
Nonfarm payrolls down 54,000 in Aug. rate at 9.6%
U.S. stock futures jump up on jobs data
Nonfarm payrolls down 54,000 in Aug. rate at 9.6% - MarketWatch
Aug. private payroll gain above 30,000 expected
Aug. factory workweek up 6 minutes to 40.2 hours
Aug. average workweek unchanged at 34.2 hours
Aug. hourly earnings up 0.2%, up 1.7 yr-on-yr
Aug. nonfarm payroll drop was seen at 105,000
Aug. private payrolls up 67,000
Aug. jobless rate 9.6% as expected
U.S. Aug. nonfarm payrolls down 54,000
12th Percentile
Thanks, I saved it to my favorites so I won't forget what it was called.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Fantasy Bootfall is big business, dude.
Where did I put my :dow11k: hat..
Gnome wrote:
qute clever, that.
must be taking a nap @ briefing.com
Construction employment was up (+19,000) in August. This change partially re-
flected the return to payrolls of 10,000 workers who were on strike in July.
Briefing.com: Bond Market Update
Manufacturing employment declined by 27,000 over the month.
get out the 11K hats, everyone. You'll need them by lunchtime.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I learned it by watching you, dad.
I have been wondering if Slummy is related to Steve Bull (Real Name) who once said to me " Welllll,Tom,so far that looks like a pretty defininite maybe,but I am not entirely sure" after 45 minutes of trying to nail him down. I wanted to sue one of the Regents of the university of California who had not paid his student loan. That company had an "open door" policy and I was very shortly thereafter asked to use it and not come back.
OH CK, you should visit the North Country sometime during a nor'easter, you'd have a ball. I had weather weenism real bad, I even have a bad azz weather station. I wanted more accurate temp reading since we can get in the negative aughts big time...most of the el cheapo electronics can't handle that.
Got Opal in ATL...that was fun but the consequences weren't.
Is there a Avg hourly earnings EX-BIG-GOV stat ?
TIA
I grew up in Mass. Nanoo. Was there for the big one in '78
speaking of the weather:
Robert Reich (The Stock Market Rally Versus the World's Economic Fundamentals)
Employment Situation Summary
Ahh, ok CK, then you've gone from weather extremes like I have. ha. Also social extremes.
If i'm going to be rubbing off on you like that, I hope you are of legal age.
Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased
by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $22.66 in August. Over the past 12 months, aver-
age hourly earnings have increased by 1.7 percent. In August, average hourly
earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by
3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $19.08. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
?
Uh huh, nanoo. I also lived in St. Louis for 20 years before coming to FL so I got the tornado alley experience as well.
9.6 UE is the print 60K non census jobs gained
Do NOT forget the wounded,many of whom have never left a VA Hospital. The damage lasts for a long,long time.
The sun will be rising in a few minutes,time for work.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I just want you and Mom to stop stealing my stash.
from: Gov’t Now Pays 30 Cents Of Every $1 in Income
We need weapons that shoot obesity into your intended victim, and the battlefield afterwards looks like America.
sum luk wrote:
And it borrows $0.5 of every $1 spent. How can this end well?
Do NOT forget the homeless Veterans...A full one-quarter of the homeless are Veterans, new and old.
curious wrote:
the end of the FED?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I might have to report you to the "Freedom ReEducation Center" if you keep it up.
curious wrote:
It can't, and it won't, but it can continue longer than many of us think.
Mom and I would grow it ourselves, but we have TMTL.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I know you got that wicked paper cut; go get a card.
curious wrote: How can this end well?
from: Record number in government anti-poverty programs - USATODAY.com
ya see, the economy had this little accident cause the drivers weren't watchin where or how fast they were going. We went on life support for a while.
...maybe there should be less complaining about how long the healing process takes.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
......we do. BK just got bought and is going global.
9.6%
edit : it works upside down too.
A very strong employment report. I'm starting to think that we are not going down after all. Too bad housing is still in the crapper in my neck of the woods.
War is a racket.
----Smedley Butler
Smedley Butler - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
COSTOFWAR.COM - The Cost of War
Why be all serious. The pig cometh and we all need to get in touch with our inner adolescent
YouTube - Heather Alexander - King Of Elfland's Daughter
token bull wrote:
This sucker is still going down like a $2 hooker at FleetWeek.
nova wrote:
Isn't that illegal?
Look at the B/D model and the number of jobs needed for graduates...then it doesn't look quite so rosy. There isn't a recovery without jobs..no ifs, ands or buts.
token bull wrote:
If the data doesn't support your hypothesis perhaps it's time to change your hypothesis...
Getting a card, is like a Jewish person sending in their résumé to the 3rd Reich...
Not wise
No its religious HG.
Nemo wrote:
Looks like Nemo called it.
surprise surprise, Krugman blowing sunshine up Obama's arse while patting his own back.
The only reason inflation isn't out of control is because normally when you print that much money it floats around the economy increasing prices. This time it all gets shipped to China.
Inflation is coming. It's the newest import from China.
Unemployment? Do you honestly believe any of the numbers the Gov't reports anymore?
skk wrote:
I'm way late on this but . . .
As well he should.
GDD9000 wrote:
No you throw money at having him convert old roads in need of repaving into gravel. Then you throw more money at him to turn gravel into dirt.
There have been some stories about counties where the folks would not tax themselves to fix the asphalt so the county was going to gravel. This a great country or what?