That can't be right.

New ; new month of Light Vehicles SAAR.

What Could Go Wrong wrote:

But buy equities like crazy anyway.

We are certain to completely blow 11k out of the water. I pressed my XLF and SPY shorts today.

Used vehicle prices seem to be dropping based on my casual browsing of craigslist listings. They were really high IMO following the cash for clunkers scheme.

CashOnlyHousing wrote:

Used vehicle prices seem to be dropping based on my casual browsing of craigslist listings.

i am noticing that too, been in the market for a used car for awhile, insane prices last year, much more reasonable now.

I repeat. That can't be right.

CashOnlyHousing wrote:

Used vehicle prices seem to be dropping based on my casual browsing of craigslist listings.

Yet I get letters from the dealership more or less begging me to sell them my car. Black book on it is up about 17% over May/June figures.

....wow......we haven't had a summer of 11-mil since 1974...........kinda like "great sex all night long"........except it's with your sister. Nice recovery though, huh?

edited: other than the summer of '09 2.

burnside,

got it. You're getting those letters based on some software some friends of mine in NC developed. They dump all sales data into a database and then load the black book data, and a mailing list is generated. They also load loan amortization data into it if dealer financed. That's where those letters come from. Automated and targeted cold calling via direct mail.

Hackman wrote:

Automated and targeted cold

dead. (I saw Blue Thunder on Netflix streaming last night.)

"Oh give me a home".... where the databases can't be interlocked to tell them which hours of the day i pee.

edit: also, too

CR,

Where does the BEA release their number?

The high for the year was in March, and sales have moved mostly sideways since then.

I'm glad GM kept the plants running this summer.

longest ever. Didn't think we would ever get over the today. But Thirsty Thursday is in sight!

amiramr0 wrote:

TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT

I guess you mean the FREE market. Never was and never will be: It is where the sun don't shine.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

I'm thinking blew his load today.

No Miss Piggy icon on this familyblog.

CashOnlyHousing wrote:

Used vehicle prices seem to be dropping based on my casual browsing of craigslist listings. They were really high IMO following the cash for clunkers scheme.

's

True Delta has great reliability stats and decent fuel economy stats. I've been signed up for a couple years, providing information about my vehicles. All the information is free if you also contribute.

Newer EPA fuel economy numbers range from pretty bad to completely useless. If you are going to buy a car do some research on the net first. True delta and car specific forums are the way to go.

Rob Dawg wrote:

The numbers don't add up. I cannot explain it but near 1m/mo doesn't jibe with manufacturer figures.

Seasonally Adjusted? Perhaps there's normally a boost to sales in the Fall?

black dog wrote:

I'm glad GM kept the plants running this summer.

Kinda like the German government paying companies not to lay folks off....

Citizen AllenM wrote:

All I see is a measure of stability hit on the way down. We have more to fall, as we vote for austerity.
Remember what austerity means. 1932, not 1982 when it was all over from the 70s show.

CAM - we aren't going to get GOP austerity - we are going to get GOP stimulus and Uncle O will be mo' than happy to go along.

Think tax cuts on everything from DTV to Nemo's ... yellow rain trickling down everywhere.

This has probably been answered before, but do SUVs fall into the light car or light truck category?

Rob Dawg wrote:

I cannot explain it but near 1m/mo doesn't jibe with manufacturer figures.

Ah. So the number looks inflated to you.

I don't have any data points on this but I find all reports at least somewhat suspect these days. Today's ISM was a total surprise to me.

Leaked German Military Report Warns Of Apocalyptic Peak Oil Scenarios

yup. Save the and s

For you hurricane groupies, is it me or do the upper level steering winds forecast suggest that Earl is set up to go straight up the East coast from OBX to Long Island, with a possibility going ashore in NC?

Cinco-X wrote:

Seasonally Adjusted? Perhaps there's normally a boost to sales in the Fall?

No. Worse than that. MP had the same problem this morning. It isn't that the numbers are wrong" but that they don't make sense. I suspect the instruments before the window.

Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:

the upper level steering winds

linkage?

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

If he was demanding less midget based programming, I'd understand.

I won't rest until they make "Dancing with the Little People".

Alexei, Kristina's link is about the best available for forecasting and discussion:

Jeff Masters 

His coverage of the Galveston Island situation was a cut above all others.

Winston wrote:

BTW, here's the numbers the 11.5 million SAAR number comes from

thanks, i don't know why there are doubters on here, it seems pretty easy to add up the numbers.

Big increase in Porsche, must be all the TPTF bankers.

Even Illegal Immigrants Are Giving Up On The US Economy

F: economic peristalsis fast and furious, also known as "the dump", followed by several flushes

Hackman wrote:

Do you have a theory for the rally today?

Crackhead day-traders........excluding honorable present company of course......

Winston,

Midget NFL. It'd work. I'm sure of it. Ask Noob Goldberg.

Current 18,000 ft winds
Current jet stream
Thursday Jet stream forcast
Friday Jet Stream forecast

Black Star Ranch wrote:

Crackhead day-traders........excluding honorable present company of course......

I prefer during the day.

burnside rote:

I get letters from the dealership more or less begging me to sell them my car.
"""""""""""""""""""
Whenever I take my caddy in for service I get offers on the spot and fone calls for a couple weeks after. The car's nothing special. '99 Seville w/72k on the odo.

Sippn wrote:

light trucks for the Tahoes/Suburbans and Expeditions. We talked about the tax treatment in the early decade with full cost deduct in the first year boosting sales. But it was late and there was drinking.

That tax deduct caught me. I also have two little guys, so an SUV makes sense, but the $12K out of pocket tax savings made that Tahoe look tasty.

glimmerman,

does anybody really believe the chinese numbers? I mean, really?

Black Star Ranch wrote:

sampling consisting of 30-establishments and professional drinkers

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro" - HST.

Some thoughts on the rumored $430bn loss on treasuries in China-
The Chinese-Hedging-Gone-Awry Theory of Treasuries The Reformed Broker

Beginning this year there was serious money being made(by me and others) shorting the bonds. Then it stopped and now we have the mass parabolic bond spike we are seeing. It looks to me like this guy in China, thinking how smart it would be to hedge his position, might have, using derivitives and futures, shorted the hell out of the US Bonds near the end of last year into this year. Now a $430BB loss seems like a lot, but what happens if you have 2.5 TT in bonds to hedge. Well a 17% loss would not be out of the question, especially as you tried to cover causing a massive spike in the bonds you were short.

What did cause the pop this morning? And what the hell is up with the flat line afterwards?

Yancey Ward wrote:

And what the hell is up with the flat line afterwards?

No financial gravity to bring it back down. Bears are for football', not tradin'.

Yancey Ward wrote:

And what the hell is up with the flat line afterwards?

"they" got the market to where "they" wanted it to be.

lets see -

no new job growth, check.
No confidence, check.
Stumbling equities, check.
Eroding household equity, check.
MEW dead in the water, check.
Higher state and local fees/taxes, check.
A slightly looser version of tight credit, check.
Rising credit card rates, check.
Underwater on my existing auto loan, check.
Aging fleet of longer lifespan vehicles, check.
Already traded in my turd in C4C, check.
Depression with still near $3 gas, check.
Recovery means $4-5 gas? Check.

Hey, low auto finance rates! Woot!

wafdof?
Cadillac Pimpin': $8000 Candy Paint On 24's 1999 Cadillac Seville - Mansura, LA

Who was that dude, Markopolos? We should come up with a Markopolos Medal to be awarded about seven years from now when all the fraud and crap is finally out there (if it is). It should go be awarded by CR to the poster who came closest to figuring out the frauds and shams in his posts.

Hackman wrote:

It should go be awarded by CR to the poster who came closest to figuring out the frauds and shams in his posts.

Can we just award it to Slummy now, or do we actually have to see a $30,000 print on gold first?

8k paint on a caddy in a trailer park. This is a great country

I don't have any data points on this but I find all reports at least somewhat suspect these days. Today's ISM was a total surprise to me.

Maybe like ac alluded to earlier: Odd things happen in even years.

Cinco-X wrote:

James Lee Hostage Taker Demands
The man holding hostages at Discovery HD has posted his list of demands. He is an anti-capitalist Malthusian who wants the Discovery Channel to stop any programming that promotes capitalism, human birth, progress, the ponzi economy.
Broward Horne, maybe?

OMG. The more I read, the more I thought this was an Onion article.

edit: Never mind. It's no where near intelligent enough for The Onion.

Cinco-X wrote:

anti-capitalist Malthusian

that's weird, most Malthusians I know are the NWO types.

Eric wrote:

Can we just award it to Slummy now, or do we actually have to see a $30,000 print on gold first?

Point well made, it needs to be based on the percentage of prognostications that are correct. I suppose if you work to make every possible guess, well, then that would be gaming the system. Wait, isn't that how Obama does it, by saying a lot of words that mean nothing like "save or create X million jobs".

Seriously, the role of Romer, cheerleader, is now easy to see. The folks who put out forecasts (I heard Austan Goolsby say he didn't make forecasts the other day) are ripe for being cut out of the administration. I actually think there must be a Presidential Playbook out there for this sort of thing and Romer knew it going in.

nova wrote:

I am pretty sure the gunman got confused. He really wanted HGTV

It's an easy mistake to make. The "Learning" Channel, the "Discovery" Channel, and Home Garden TV don't just vaguely resemble each other's daytime programming.

Hackman wrote:

(I heard Austan Goolsby say he didn't make forecasts the other day)

His other howler was something along the lines of "I don't get into politics, I'm just a policy guy".

Quick, place your Apple buy orders!!!! If I squint my eyes just right and chug about 2 fifths of Vodka, I can see that it is underpriced and oversold. Hey, Google is, too. Give me some more Vodka! This stuff works.

Yalt,

We need a rules committee. You are chair. Of course, that means you cannot win the Medal.

Eric wrote:

I think they have pills that can help with that.

Well, if they licked their chops more often, they wouldn't have this problem, now would they?

nova wrote:

Will it be a gold medal?

gold plated tungsten

Hostage taking? Weak. Dr. Ain had a better idea.

nova wrote:

Will it be a gold medal?

Slummy is going to buy all the by then, so there won't be any left

We're hitting the same numbers as '71, when the GM pickets went back to work.

Apropos of Hackman's award proposal, the commenters I have found to provide the most useful insights have been CR & Tanta (obviously), mp, EvilHenryPaulson, and the long lost crispy&cole.

Plenty of others I like for a variety of other reasons.

Given how much I attack and/or lampoon the commenters I despise and/or pity, I figured I throw that out there.

Hackman wrote:

We need a rules committee. You are chair.

I bought some SRS at the close yesterday for a quick overnight flip. So, yes, I do feel like someone's been sitting on me.

Yancey Ward wrote:

And what the hell is up with the flat line afterwards?

That's where Timmy set the limit on his buy order.

Eric wrote:

. . . but not everyone grew up with Unix.

I think some grew up packing hexa decimal.

And Raspberries (for being spectacularly wrong, not getting into my Ignore bin): Sebastian, Sivaram Villaleuthapai, Banker

Banker (like crispy) is to the best of my recollection . . . it's been a long time. Could be I've amplified the qualities of either out of nostalgia.

Yalt wrote:

I bought some SRS at the close yesterday for a quick overnight flip.

At least you have the consolation of knowing it won't be an albatross hanging around your neck; instead it will just decay into nothingness.

justaskin wrote:

Eric wrote:
grew up with Unix.
No wonder you spend lot's of time weeping......

You never use Unix ... Unix uses you!

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

You never use Unix ... Unix uses you!

The shell you say!

Yalt wrote:

I bought some SRS at the close yesterday for a quick overnight flip.

Hey, it's up 4 cents after hours.

Rob Dawg wrote:

The shell you say!

Keep this up and I'll want to BASH my head on my desk.

Mr Slippery wrote:

Hey, it's up 4 cents after hours.

The Great Doubling!

yagij wrote:

Keep this up and I'll want to BASH my head on my desk.

Ah, I see I'm not the only Gentoo user here...

burnside wrote on Wed, 9/1/2010 - 4:21 pm

. . . but not everyone grew up with Unix.

I think some grew up packing hexa decimal.
""""""""""""""""""""
I have vague memories from 1973-something about watfive and fortran.

woops, they're gone now.

Man, I love all the PERLs of wisdom I pick up here.

A monument to the Unknown Banker.

I learnt formula translation as my first language in eng. school.

edit: engineering not english!

Mr Slippery wrote:

Hey, it's up 4 cents after hours.

I you would have leveraged it 100-1 like I told you to you could have made some real money.
That you could have used it to buy some

Mr Slippery wrote:

yagij wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:

The shell you say!

Keep this up and I'll want to BASH my head on my desk.

You are just AWKing your book again.

That's what you SED.

OK, TS Gaston has been named far out in the Atlantic

Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:

OK, TS Gaston has been named far out in the Atlantic

You mean? YouTube - Beauty and The Beast - Gaston

Outsider wrote:

Wow. I must've wandered into the programming club.

Yes, but the TCP/IP networking club is later at night

Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:

OK, TS Gaston has been named far out in the Atlantic

In honor of Palewski, no doubt.

CR should rent his blogspace out to subgroups. He'd be able to finance his hiking equipment.

Rob Dawg wrote:

PICKy picky.

What the HTML are you talking about?!

Uh... OK, that was weak... guess I'll get back on topic and go buy a car...

state of emergency for Massachusetts? when was the last time a hurricane (not down-graded TS) hit that state?

Basel Too wrote:

When was the last time a hurricane (not down-graded TS) hit that state?

Miami v. BC: Doug Fluttie's Hail Mary?

RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised wrote:

TCP/IP

You had TCP/IP???!?!?!

Luxury!

Basel Too wrote:

state of emergency for Massachusetts? when was the last time a hurricane (not down-graded TS) hit that state?

Don't underestimate. The Great Flood of 1936 DVD - shopPBS.org

Light Vehicle Sales...is that everything under 20 tons without the passengers?

Eric wrote:

You had TCP/IP?

I could have called it 'token-ring' club. But I didnt want to cause people to run away screaming in horror before they even got there...

Outsider wrote:

Cheap hikers pick the boots and other stuff off the bits of previous hikers on the trail.

The Snows of Kilimanjaro hold many treasures.

RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised wrote:

I could have called it 'token-ring' club. But I didnt want to cause people to run away screaming in horror before they even got there...

One of the first jobs I had working one summer at Bell Labs was soldering together a switch so the sysadmin could switch his HP2621 terminal between 5 different RS-232 connections.

The next summer, they finally got around to installing a network.

CR gets internet reception from Kilimanjaro? kewl.

(I always thought he did day trips)

September 1, 2010

The hostage-taker at the Discovery Communications building in Silver Spring, Md., has been shot and taken into custody, and the hostages he had held are now safe, CNN reported Sept. 1. The report indicated that an explosive device the suspect had been wearing was believed to have been set off but failed to detonate. Other suspected devices are still in the building and have not been rendered safe. Police have not confirmed the reports.

SavethePlanetProtest.com is back up again. must have been the initial burst that KO'ed the server.

Right Dawg, so far just NC and Virginia declaring. Hurricane and Tropical storm warnings up for the rest including Mass. Got to get ready for work, I'll check in before I leave if I hear anything else.

Ding dong of the month.

Blackhalo wrote:

It's a shame it can't just hit the GS building... Of course they are probably insured against such an eventuality with AIG.

Yes. For at least 15x its actual value.

Yes. For at least 15x its actual value.

Let me guess. Backstopped by the taxpayers?

Comrade Kristina wrote:

No, Earl will be somewhere between a Cat 2 and Cat 3 when he reaches the New England area.

That's gonna leave a mark...

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Latter Days.

Trying to summon Beck?

It's easier to ask what isn't backstopped by the taxpayers in these Laddered Days.

Well, I'm not. How bout you?

I'm thinking we gotta join together and buy us some lobbyists.

Az may get to 115+ deg on a few days, but we don't have hurricanes, tornadoes, earth quakes or tsunamies.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Yes. For at least 15x its actual value.

15X infinity is still infinity...

LoserBeachBum wrote:

Ding dong of the month.

.........Geeze - they'll let ANYONE operate a website. Isn't there some kind of test, certification, or set of requirements a person must pass before they're allowed to get one of 'those dangerous things'? You know, kinda like when you want to be parents of your own children, or a president, or one of those other 'internets' things, and stuff like that????..............

" This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6."

Wow, that is not a nice kitty...

It seems strange to find somebody that as Mathusiastic as today's gunman was, what was he hoping to do, lower the world's population by a dozen people?

Black Star Ranch wrote:

Geeze - they'll let ANYONE operate a website. Isn't there some kind of test, certification, or set of requirements a person must pass before they're allowed to get one of 'those dangerous things'?

I think we need a regulatory agency and a Czar for that!

RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised wrote:

That may have been because of the gawd-aweful implementation of it that windows had... Winsock.

Did ANYONE not call it "Winsuck"?

amiramr0 wrote:

15X infinity is still infinity...

Aleph naught argue as the details would be endless.

YouTube - Styx- Too Much Time on My Hands

Rob Dawg wrote:

Aleph naught argue as the details would be endless.

Could an infinite-value entity like ever distribute itself among a set of countably infinite finite beings without ceasing to be ?

Ah, RS-232. You could do peer to peer with that. That was some amazing technology. Watch your IRQs.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Could an infinite-value entity like Vampire Squid from Hell ever distribute itself among a set of countably infinite finite beings without ceasing to be Vampire Squid from Hell?

Zeno? I zeno.

Slumdog wrote:

Burnside, are you short gold or silver?

No, Slumdog. But why?

Eric wrote:

This, from a guy who doesn't even know that a call is an option.

Worse, this from a guy who thinks calls are free.

yagij wrote:

You got me until that point.

Quoted from the link-

Earl looks like it's trying to fujiwhara with the low in the great lakes, not with fiona. This could get pretty exciting.

4-panel chart of
200mb Wind, Ht, 500mb Vort, Ht, MSLP 1000 - 500mb, 850mb Temp, Ht

this is the 18z GFS, so it's only one model.

Three storm heading towards the Great Satan...Al-Qaeda trained Suicide Squad Butterflies strike again!

Ah-hem.

I learned typing on a manual typewriter.

And there was no white out.

That's okay. When I went to high school we were still etching on rocks.

{now someone, beat that}

CalculatedRisk wrote:

Rob Dawg, what can't be right? 11.47 million SAAR? Down 18.9% from August 2009, and down 0.5% from the July sales rate.

If I could put my finger on it I'd be posting the details but I cannot. I don't know if there is misreporting or miscalculating or what. All I can say is like mp I am not able to fit 11.5m SAAR into my worldview. It isn't about being wrong but more about error bands and fidelity. I note that ISM relies upon price acceleration and consumer inventory but something is just "wrong" here.

edit: This makes me very uncomfortable.

Outsider wrote:

When I went to high school we were still etching on rocks.

You mean... a chalkboard?

Did you get to 'clap the erasers' too?

You win Dawg.

After 9/11, I went back to Roman numerals for awhile, unti I felt it was safe to hang out with numbers of Arabic.

Slumdog wrote:

and calling the markets with real money dead on accurately all the time

Easy to do when you Slumcast.

I did that! I did that!

You win Dawg.

Sharpest wit in the west.

You can't beat a dawg.

Eric wrote:

Easy to do when you Slumcast.

Lake Woebeslum where all the calls are above average.

Basel Too wrote:

state of emergency for Massachusetts? when was the last time a hurricane (not down-graded TS) hit that state?

Bob hit in the '90s, but the No Name Storm was actually worse....

Outsider wrote:

You can't beat a dawg.

But yea when you beat the dawg doth he not bleed?

But yea when you beat the dawg doth he not bleed?

Don't know. It's never been done.

But I'm not a quitter.

'cept for now. :byeall:

IBM Selectric typewriter - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hey. Those were cadillac in my day. Nothing wrong with selectrics.

My dad was a bit of a wheel on Spring St. in downtown LA when the Pacific Stock Exchange was a going thing back in the 60's, and a couple days a year i'd go to work with him and raise hell in the computer room, which was temperature controlled, and made ersatz airplanes out of punch cards...

Silly thing probably cost $100k in 1967 dollars, and you could get something with 1000x as much of everything for $400, and don't worry what temperature it is~

At home we had a manual typewriter, prolly from the 30s or 40s.

At summer school, where I went to typing class, they had manual typewriters. At work my mom had an IBM Selectric

Blackhalo wrote:

IBM Selectric

not in 1950

lawyerliz wrote:

I did that! I did that!

Teachers pet...

A selectric had a certain hum to it, once you turned it on, ready for business...

They were the kind once upon a time, and cost like a grandido or thereabouts~

I read somewhere that there's like 4 quadrillion Ants, it's not like they need saving.

There will soon be more dollars than ants.

I think the caption for should be changed to "and, of course, the squirrels"

Oxtail -
I second that motion

Never let it be forgotten - that left or right ideologically, on this day, technology flashbacks have brought us all together as one

Economics of Contempt: The Unofficial List of Pundits/Experts Who Were Wrong on the Housing Bubble 

I'd rather see a list of those who have profited obscenely from the bailouts, and managed to escape calamity.

lawyerliz wrote:

They raised the millage of course.

Proves California isn't entirely crazy.

Blackhalo wrote:

Economics of Contempt: The Unofficial List of Pundits/Experts Who Were Wrong on the Housing Bubble  . . .

From the link:

The housing bubble has precipitated a severe, and possibly catastprophic, economic crisis

In trouble from the start.

Would taste kinda squirrelly?