ATA Truck Tonnage Index declines in June
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 07/29/2010 - 4:05pm (172 comments)
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 9 members and 141 guests online.
Currently online
Recent Recommendations
It's all the Mexican drivers. They weigh less.
I'm sorry, but how can it decline in the summer of recovery?
I am DYING to get CR's thoughts on the whoobie, I mean blanket re-fi trial balloon.
That reminds me: I haven't seen any ads for truck driving schools recently...
I sure hope that the unemployed truck drivers have something else they can do that is remunerative... because I recall that a lot of truck drivers were independent operators, so no 99 weeks for them.
So, is our "just in time"delivery system slowing down?
Comrades, you have a 3 day supply of food at your supermarket.
The first home in an million dollar project was being completed and a pool construction truck clipped the entry wall. The developer whined about the rebuild, asking how it could happen....etc. So I did some counting. Maybe 200+ semi trucks worth of deliveries for the 5000 square foot home passed through the gate, the one that hit it was one of the last. This was the smallest of 7 homes to be built, so he had to dodge another 1200-1500+ semi trucks - I suggested a little more width and reset his expectations.
My point is with the end of the tax credit, tonnage is gonna decrease a little just for residential construction. Ipods don't take much.
Nemo wrote:
Are you sure?I thought they supply them with some extra lead over there.
adornosghost wrote:
"Just in time" to me means "always late, not there when you need it", and of course insanely long lead times.
I can see the attraction to bean counters, though, for a couple of reasons:
Trouble is, at the end of the day, someone has to finance and hold the inventory. Sometime you can delay adding value and just keep the materials or parts available, but someone still has to hold the bag.
sm_landlord wrote:
It's a satchel, damnit!
Indiana Jones had one!
Subtle Shift Within Fed Toward Deflation Concerns - NY Times
The PTB are gearing up for QE 2. Notice how their stimulus doesn't come in the form of a 20-year program to take us off oil, or to set up more efficient health and other support services for future impoverished and infirm baby boomers, or to boost the knowledge and abilities and future productivity of young people. Nope. The money will all be poured into boosting home prices and bankers, just like last time.
patientrenter wrote:
EconomicDisconnect wrote:
In that spirit, Japan released its industrial production figure, and it unexpectedly fell 1.5%, they were expecting an increase of 0.1%.
It’s The Summer of Recovery all over the world!
Do you hate 'Merika?
If we didn't have the rich to support with our labor, how would capitalism work?
Without us, there would be no relation between user and exchange value.
amiramr0 wrote:
Another unexpected result! When do we stop getting unexpected?
I want to go to the Lincoln Hawk school of truck driving (obscure reference)
How do you game VAT?
Black market?
Have you folks seen this? If so, I apologize for passing it around again. The "I"s in FIRE are skimming profit from the families of dead GIs. May be legal, but disgusting nonetheless. Makes my blood boil.
Duping the Families of Fallen Soldiers - Bloomberg
Let's just hope turbotax puts together a good iphone app so we can figure out our VAT when we go buy a burger.
Paradigm Lost wrote:
Doing Gods work.
EconomicDisconnect wrote:
The Candyman knew all about unknown unknowns.
Well, any insurance policy is only as good as the issuing insurer. Which is why there've been the ratings for the insurers for so many years.
Paradigm Lost wrote:
FTA:
Hoocoodanode?
Paradigm Lost wrote:
I was ready to get all worked up, but it's hard to get worked up over the notion that funds at a life insurer, or a mutual fund, or any other non-bank entity, are not insured by the FDIC. Isn't FDIC only for banks? Do we want banks to have all our money?
sm_landlord quotes from FTA:
Not watching enough porn?
greenchutes wrote:
I hope you don't mean those scary movies!
I had no idea the tiles were donations in cash. Trying to think of the right one to "donate".
sm_landlord wrote:
Do the likes of dr Stempel get paid if they get quoted?
How do you game VAT?
Black market?
Actually, that is about the only way. And for it to work, the entire supply chain has to be black market, something like:
smuggled imports---> black market distribution ----> cash only local markets
I see a lot of it in Mexico when I go to the mercadito.
There HAS to be some angle that mortgage rates hit ALL TIME lows this week and the re-fi for all started???
Here I re-write a classic tune for today:
"Re-Fi the World, Re-Fi the Children;
Free rides are sure to make a brighter day;
So let's start handing"
my post has all the particulars.
No way to game VAT and crazy as it sounds I think I am for it.
I'm sure the professor has a book he's pushing...hoping to boost sales.
The "I"s in FIRE are skimming profit from the families of dead GIs.
.........................................
There was a piece on NPR about this yesterday evening. Disgusting, reprehensible, yet very
like in it's nature.
But, really, could we expect anything less from those rat bastard SOBs??
Naw, just trying to sew together a couple of memes...
Underrated flick, though.
What's blood for, if not for shedding?
(Nice synopsis of the
worldview, actually.)
EconomicDisconnect wrote:
Unless you buy the politicians / regulators. But that will never happen.
"America's WETLAND foundation partnered with a group called Women of the Storm to "spread the message that U.S. taxpayers should pay for the damage caused by BP to Gulf Coast wetlands." Brendan DeMelle and Jerry Cope noted that a host of prominent oil companies -- including BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Citgo and Chevron -- are listed as donors to the organization, creating the bizarre spectacle of the oil industry using a perfectly-named front group to solicit taxpayer assistance for BP's cleanup bill."
Gulf Coast Restoration Group With Oil Industry Ties Defends Itself From Critics
EconomicDisconnect wrote:
The Summer of Recovery only applies to corporate profits.
What's the difference between moderating growth and slowing growth? I guess the word 'moderating' doesn't sound as bad as "negative growth" or "shrinking economy."
Rosethorn:
Ratings of the biggest perpetrators:
Investor Relations - Prudential Financial - Ratings
MetLife Ratings
Brought to you by those trusted rating agencies...
Hayduke wrote:
That's funny!
It's like saying negative profits or negative population growth.
YouTube - That is where you fail.
A few words of wisdom from my cousin.
Anyone else tapped out on Rosenberg? I luv him but geez
Hahahaha "A tax bomb! Quick, rich people to your tax shelters!"
The Word - Ownership Society | July 28, 2010 - Elon Musk | ColbertNation.com
Any day is now Saturday....
Here we go loopty loo
Here we go loopty li
Here we go loopty loo
All on a Saturday night
Here we go way down low
Here we go way up high
Here we go way down low
We really know how to fly
Here we go round and round
Here we go fast and slow
Here we go round and round
Oh what a great way to go
Here we go up and down
Here we sit side by side
Here we go up and down
Oh what a wonderful ride
Here we go loopty loo
Here we go loopty li
Here we go loopty loo
All on a Saturday night
All on a Saturday night
All on a Saturday night
HomeGnome wrote:
OMG!!!!!
You know the tridactyl species name!!!!!!! Break the news here!
REbear: It appears Sandra Bullock is pulling outta the group:
Sandra Bullock is out of Restore the Gulf campaign while facts are gathered | NOLA.com
Nemo wrote:
A kernal of truth. The RailFax site Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
reported yesterday that rail traffic via crashed in the last couple of weeks.
A little local flavor:
DOT to offer official highway memorial signs - WIS News 10 - Columbia, South Carolina |
ac wrote:
A choice nugget from the current NYer profile of Schumer:
...the longer I am around, I think it's the market's psychology that matters dramatically. So if the local businessman thinks, Hey, they've got a good plan here, and over the next two or three years the economy is going to get going, he is likely to spend more - all because of the little Schumer-Hatch proposal.
When the narcissism is this extreme and the grip on the reality is this weak, it can't be much of a challenge for the
to manipulate all involved.
picosec wrote:
Obama Meets With Warren Buffett to Discuss Economic Growth, Job Creation - Bloomberg
"“He wanted to come in and see the president and we don’t turn down the opportunity to talk to Warren Buffett.” "
REBear wrote:
picosec Edits:
Sorry, left out the most important word.
"The PTB are gearing up for QE 2. Notice how their stimulus doesn't come in the form of a 20-year program to take us off oil, or to set up more efficient health and other support services for future impoverished and infirm baby boomers, or to boost the knowledge and abilities and future productivity of young people. Nope. The money will all be poured into boosting home prices and bankers, just like last time. "
patientrenter, You can really bum a drunk out.
Any and all,
what Prez goes on "The View"?
seriously, needed?
And still waiting for CR's take on the re-fi the world, re-fi the children program.
I am sure it suggests sumthin!
EconomicDisconnect wrote:
This is the "Facebook" president. He belongs on the "The View".
EconomicDisconnect wrote:
one who is losing support among women... the campaigning never stops...
patientrenter wrote:
I was ready to get all worked up, but it's hard to get worked up over the notion that funds at a life insurer, or a mutual fund, or any other non-bank entity, are not insured by the FDIC. Isn't FDIC only for banks? Do we want banks to have all our money?
It's a little easier to get worked up over the fact that their "checks" are not accepted at major retailers. That truly did surprise me.
When my husband died in 2004, I received a payout from Transamerica that was placed in one of these security accounts. I immediately transferred the entire payout to my money market fund (also not FDIC insured) as soon as I received a book of these "checks". I have yet to have anyone turn down my Vanguard MMF checks, which have paid for cars, refi fees and the occasional credit card bill. Given that, I don't understand at all why the security account checks weren't accepted at major retailers for large durable goods purchases.
Stempel seems correct in that death benefits money should not sit in the hands of the insurer for more than about 12 months after pay-out. It's one of those obvious moral hazard issues. The article spins it stupidly however. This is not a unique or unusual practice.
What's disquieting is that fact that the woman in the article couldn't access the funds in a reasonable & expected manner. She has good reason to be uncomfortable about that.
I see, so from his point of view everyone has unlimited amounts of money, and the only thing that is stopping them from investing is the perceived weakness in the economy, and if only we change that perception everything will be hunky dory.
Ben will be proud.
...reported yesterday that rail traffic via Mexico crashed in the last couple of weeks.
Something to bear in mind is that Tropical Storm Alex washed out several of the major rail lines, particularly the one that runs from Saltillo, through Monterrey, and up to the border. A lot of automobile production moves on that line. So the drop may be more related to other causes, not just an economic slowdown.
Fluffy the Obese Persian Cat wrote:
I thought the funds were available on demand, like money market funds.
I have several money market accounts, none with FDIC insurance, and several bank accounts, all with FDIC insurance. I use the bank accounts to pay bills. Occasionally, I transfer money from the money market accounts to the bank accounts to replenish them. (It takes a few days for the transfer to go through, which is annoying.) I thought this was the way things were supposed to work.
Paradigm Lost wrote:
Two main illegal ways:
1) Black market. Really only works if you don't have a lot of in-the-VAT-system inputs, otherwise they will spot the mysterious black hole and track you down easy. So in home barber would be a good one
2) If you're talking about the EU single market, people have scammed governments claiming to have paid in one jurisdiction and moving on with the taxes owed, sometimes by falsely claiming rebates, before governments catch up. This only works well if there is no physical presence or repeat customers necessary. The more money you make, the easier it is for them to catch you.
One basic legal way:
1) Consume abroad and don't bring anything back for them to apply a VAT or duties to
VAT is a tax on domestic consumption that is just levied on the basis of value-added for producers to report/collect it
on the spot basic philosophy for how to perform taxation if it must be done:
- put the taxer between the spending money and everyone else; you have to go to the money to get any money, no way around that, not even transfer pricing or blind trusts
- make the system such that any one cheater depends on everyone they deal with also conspiring, which would be easy to catch just by checking up on the big fish
- any differences in tax rates should be based on commonly agreed upon rationale that is above the table
- in the era of communication and virtual businesses, there should be no easier or cheaper way to legally pay taxes than the normal way
- there should be some mild social and financial reward for paying taxes over time. maybe a rebate up to a certain amount of taxes paid in the last few years when you hit rough times. maybe some public recognition for taxes paid, how would you treat someone that worked twice as hard as anyone else to prepare dinner while camping
the fewer people who cheat, the lighter the load for everyone else
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
I do my best.
It is interesting how, every now and again, a few of us fall for the idea always being peddled by someone that the PTB really hated having to "rescue the economy" by rescuing homeowners and bankers. Ya know, they just didn't have time to do it any other way. Of course, two years later and they are gearing up to prop up the exact same people.
EconomicDisconnect wrote:
Sure there is:
Comrade Dazed and Amused wrote:
So the Non drop that was not reported should also not be reported as a spike next month when it picks up, by that reasoning, yes? Lay odds on what leads the headlines?
1-rail lines stabilize after storm
2-rail trafiic SURGES showing recovery
greenchutes wrote:
In other words, don't worry about economic fundamentals. Just boost confidence, spending, borrowing, and asset prices.
And this guy (Schumer) has a lot of power over how our financial system and economy is organized. We are ruled by fools and thieves.
NorkaWest
if you had bought a significant amount of inventory, they would track you down with VAT but not with sales taxes
it's a one and done scam that can happen with sales taxes, easier in fact. there was a story about a squatter who took over a bar in Florida and got away with it for a few days before the landlord saw the place he owned in the newspaper with a grand re-opening
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
........how about putting a red
on your Report Card for when you're good......C'mon, Henry, more touchy feelie symbolism does nothing to correct the problem - It's the spending - not how taxes are collected - or how much we're supposed to like it........ Crimany Sakes!
Thanks, EHP....
How do we capture our taxes sitting in off-shore tax havens? They would have to spend it here? What if they spend it in Dubai?
Summer of Recovery on the Fed's balance sheet. LMAO!
[The Fed’s paper profit on the three vehicles, known as Maiden Lane I, II and III, highlights the recovery in the value of securities that were once considered toxic, and could allay criticism of the federal bail-outs of large companies.
Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, has repeatedly expressed confidence that the central bank will be repaid for its aid to the financial system.
As of Wednesday, the Maiden Lane portfolios’ unrealised gains – the difference between the market value of their securities and the outstanding amount of the authorities’ loans to the vehicles – stood at $10.8bn, official documents showed. "
Ahhh, the Italian roll- complete with fake invoices makes it much more bulletproof. Nothing like selling bust out company invoices with fake "returns".
Sales tax scams are the junior leagues to vat tax scams.
As the saying goes, where there is cash, there is not much tax.
Period.
Someday this war's gonna end...
we are all CIA now
Major Corporations Are Downloading Those 100 Million Facebook Profiles off BitTorrent
This thread moves too fast!
Have a great night all, TGIF!
get your requests in!
Paradigm Lost wrote:
That requires a corporate income tax reform
do not trust anyone over $40mn is the new do not trust anyone over age 40
Black Star Ranch
you know who they give out medals to? patriots in the military
go find some of them to tell it's just touchy feely crap
i know humans better than humans do
Sure there is:
But, YOU paid VAT at each of these steps when you paid your suppliers/landlord. So, the government looses out on the tax on your added value only.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
It could be employees trying to snoop on friends and family.
bearly wrote:
I love the duplicity. Ben prints and hands out $1.65 trillion without accounting for any of it as money lost by the govt, and then declares the less than 1% that showed up back in a Fed portfolio as profit.
Paradigm Lost wrote:
In Israel you are supposed to report everything you bring into the country. VAT and import tax are levied. There is no practical way of enforcing it if it’s something you carry with you (air travel…).
But it is enforced on anything that is shipped into the country.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
The inventory sold for cash would show up as "shrinkage" with the proceeds disappearing as skim.
The trick would be to keep the level of skim reasonable and remembering not to brag about it to anyone.
Stop thinking like a Canadian, but like a Greek or Italian.
All I can say is we are going to start living the new "new" economy. Nothing much to say about how the common man is going to be screwed- we already see the effects of the declining wages on the real economy, and the rentiers are screaming about their lost rents in oh so many ways.
The really funny part is folks keep screaming about the deficit- if Paul Krugman is reading this the question he needs to ask is where is the safe 4% return on a two year CD or bond?
The answer is nowhere, which means that we can now run nearly unlimited deficits, leavened with the Fed buying gold to prop the dollar when the currency falls a little too fast.
There is really no alternative to deflation, as we have left disinflation behind.
All we are doing is arguing about when we entered the
Someday this war's gonna end...
Here I am, low again. Spent the last week scrabbling at dry cracked earth with my bare hands, trying to make something happen. No opportunity in this country for the youth.
patientrenter
you will never see a loss recognized on the FR's balance sheet. they are not allowed to, spending is the domain of congress.
it will require the Treasury buying the FR out at par. that's why I refer to the FR as a toxic holding pond.
since the FR follows no accounting standard other than what it feels like doing at the time, this is all technically possible even if it doesn't make one bit of sense
Comrade Dazed and Amused wrote:
No, you expense the full cost (including VAT) of the inventory. You just don't declare the cash revenue.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
WHAT?.........nevermind. Sorry to have bothered you on a Thursday.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
And that's why I referred to the "govt" rather than the Fed. It's just a little shell game, as you point out. Ben and Tim coordinate carefully.
NorkaWest
fine, it's still no better than a sales tax scam. if it became popular, the govt could always hold a regular lottery using the VAT number on receipts as entry tickets. that would work because your customers probably place a higher value on the lottery ticket than its worth, and if they know you're cheating they might want better than half of the spoils. however if you were extra smart in addition to being patient, you could just print fake VAT numbers on the receipts hoping none of them ever match winning numbers. but one businessman wanting a receipt for his expense account and it would all end once that goes back into the system.
either way, the principle stands: the more money made in VAT fraud, the easier it will be to catch them and they probably have more to lose as well
I began reading "To Big to Fail" tonight. I would really like to flow chart the relationships/connections between the major players.
You guys can nit-pick at VAT all you like. In the UK, it's basically a 20% (from 2011) bump on most things that people buy.
HM Revenue & Customs: VAT
As such, it's a 20% reduction in the amount of stuff you can afford to consume.
I'd call it deflationary, since it reduces the amount of money that can be spent on stuff, but some might call it inflationary, since it raises prices.
That MacxBook Pro that was $1100, is now $1320. Ouchhh!
No, you expense the full cost (including VAT) of the inventory
VAT is not a part of COGS. The only way to avoid paying VAT to your supplier is to have a black market supply chain that's in on the game.
patientrenter
oops, missed that, sorry. either way, it's funny to see a story about the federal reserve's independence pop up every so often when they already signed that away happily
In the UK the VAT began at 10% in 1973. It's probably a fluke that it has doubled since.
Comrade Dazed and Amused wrote:
The only way to beat a VAT is to make no money, like a non-profit or a REIT, where all the profits are paid in dividends or salary ?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I know you don't like him, but the last Fed chairman who acted with any level of real independence was Paul Volcker.
nova wrote:
How the hell did this camel get in here!?!?!?!
Also there are usually exempt items like food, or reduced rate VAT items.
nova wrote:
....that won't happen here.......
Jonathan wrote:
Sometimes I wish that our modern education systems were a little more effective.
Jonathan wrote:
What would it be with sales tax in your area?
Of course not. A VAT in the US would probably be temporary until Miss Economy can get on her feet. Then it would be gradually phased out and replaced by a little camel in a pony suit
nova wrote:
Hi nova. I finished that tome two weeks or so ago, and hope you enjoy it. I don't read as much as I'd like to, but made time for that one because I had heard good things. It's worth your time, IMO. Extremely detailed footnotes, which I always like. Post back when you finish, b/c I usually enjoy your take on things.
You are exactly right : it is a challenge to keep all the players together. I was somewhat impressed/depressed at how interrelated that level of finance is. Reminded me of prep school writ large.
(full disclosure : public school kid)
patientrenter wrote:
Well, hell, I was leaving the door open to whatever interpretation people wanted to put on it. I'd appreciate your opinion.
Sandra Bullocks is working as hard as she can for the wetlands.
She doesn't want to associate with women who take money from drillers lying down.
nova wrote:
Comrade Nova's point is well taken. The real risk with VAT is that it is one, simple easy lever for the politicos to pull. Need more tax revenue?....Just hike the IVA percentage, easy, peasy.....
It may start out supposedly replacing a revenue stream, under the guise of reduced evasion. But over time, it WILL come to be seen as an easy way for politicians to increase tax revenue.
bearly wrote:
dividends yes salary no.
josap wrote:
Locally, sales tax is like 6% to 8% depending on city taxes I believe. Not exactly sure, but I think the $500 in property taxes on our $600 mortgage, considerably eclipses any sales taxes, and there's no state income tax either.
why must you harsh on my mellow tonight? You realize, for most folks here in California, thursday night is like the weekend. Yaaaaaaaay furloughs!
Spool,
Based on other reading and this book so far the Wall Street leaders are somewhat more interlinked then the average W.VA small town. The difference is that instead of kin it's money that is the relationship glue.
Nikkei tickles
......the gal that gave us our last horse, Spartacus, related that their family today was notified of the death of her cousin who as an Air Force pilot, was practicing for the Alaska air show when his C-17 crashed. He had just safely returned from a tour of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Re Too Big To Fail.
I got about three quarters of the way through and put it down.
Econned was a slow read but if willing to stick with it, valuable.
Right now I'm slowly working my way through a dog-eared paperback copy of Nicholas and Alexandra by Robert Massie. Finding that parts of the years between the Sunday Massacre of 1905 and the final revolution are resonating in terms of the tin-ear of the autocracy and government.
Jonathan wrote:
I apologize for being so snarky.
Wiki has a very good and simple definition of inflation. I am afraid that I have already ranted too much before, and recently, about people not using the standard definitions of inflation, deflation, disinflation, recessionary, etc. So instead, this time, I reverted to just taking a sardonic sideswipe.
GDD9000 wrote:
Lots of denial about budgetary woes ("This happens every year, no biggie"), so suck it up and act like its the workweek.
Hehe...well it is a workday tomorrow for me, but my sis is on furlough, so Im tempted to play hooky. But noooooooooo......grrr.
patientrenter wrote:
Yeah, I'm in the monetary definition camp, versus the simplified prices up/down camp, but I will go take a look at the wiki definition.
Thanks.
I will tell you what this is all about, and what Gates will conclude.
The problem is that life insurance is sold by people who get paid to sell it. But they don't get paid to hang around and service it. Any military family could choose to take a lump-sum death benefit, if they knew the score and filled out all the right forms. The life insurance industry has rigged the "default choice" to these low-interest rate annuities, and they've made it so that the average person needs to hire professional help to change the default.
It's exactly like the overdraft fees on debit cards and over-limit fees were on credit cards, until the law changed on both recently. The default went from opting-out (which was practically impossible in some cases) to where you must affirmatively opt-in to be charged these card fees.
The same will happen to the life insurance industry in a few months. It will be illegal to make a low-rate annuity payout the default. People will have to opt-in for it.
But the bigger problem is that the life insurance industry, as a whole, creates no continuous service, even though almost every policy includes a hidden fee for service. After the sale, the agent either ditches the client or goes on to another career. There's really nothing that can be done about that. Too few agents are capable of lasting more than a few years.
Homedad,
Thanks. I will put Econned on my list of books
GDD9000 wrote:
I need to give myself furlough days. My boss is pretty nice, so my pay wouldn't be cut.
Rich,
Just thinking about what you posted makes me want to hurt people. That is a great example of sociopath FIRE
Equity Market Being Propped Up As Market Remains Last Line Of Defense Against Deflation | zero hedge
Interesting tidbit on market manipulation.
All things considered, the whole thing is a giant cluster
. The market is being gamed and destroying the faith of the average retail investor, but they're trying to keep it up to make the average retail investor think that everything's copacetic. If it's copacetic, then people buy and the consumption machine continues to churn.
And on the other hand, they're so desperate for taxes that they'll institute a VAT which will really ratchet down spending, especially on the autos and other large ticket items. Is VAT deflationary or inflationary?
Real world check: Went to the store today for bread/milk and the cost of a single donut (these guys make good ones) rose from $.55 to $.60 (about a 9% rise).
Who's gonna support the retail bakeries when they are hit with massive sales losses? And this is even before VAT.
me no likey like this link, and Im sure EHP will hate it even more than I do. I keep trying to find ways to not believe this is happening, but I keep getting sucked back in.
Must...destroy....:
Comrade Dazed and Amused wrote:
Well, not true on a small scale, there is plenty of leakage in practice on the small level. I think we should contemplate a VAT, as it would bring forward a lot of stockpiling once we knew it was coming, and then people would eventually exhaust their stores, and prices would rise. The best strategy is to buy anything you think you might need the first year or two, and then hunker down. Of course, there will be a much better return on craiglist for usable stuff, as people will no longer buy new as much.
Clothes will make the biggest difference initially- as that 20% will be immediately noticeable.
After all, what do Europeans buy here? Clothes and jewelry- hmmm, kinda obvious isn't it?
Someday this war's gonna end...
I noticed that in England beer was cheap in the store. So was food in the grocery store (exempt) Restaurants and pubs were expensive (VAT) In some ways it was like social planning taxation. If you're a worker bee the necessities are kept inexpensive. Socially fair, or at least presents the appearance of being so, and also keeps unrest to a minimum...
homedad43 posted:
I think I posted a few months back about talking to a guy at Kroger, who turned out to be a bread delivery guy. He was getting called in to stock 4 loaves of bread (probably specialty, not the Sara Lee crap), and he was pretty pissed off about how tight things were being run.
Thinking about this inflation/deflation thing, and perhaps the following applies, increasing prices are only inflationary in the presence of wage pressures (i.e. near full employment) that cause employers to match price increases with wage increases.
In the presence of significant unemployment, price increases reduce available income, and are thus deflationary.
Nominally the same idea as progressive income tax. I wonder if they get the same level of whining.
nova wrote:
True in Italy and Argentina as well.
homedad43 wrote:
This is not the inflation you are looking for. Move along.
Got a call from my local bank wanting to know if I'd meet with one of their personal bankers and what the hell, I said 'yes'. He wondered what I was looking for in terms of retirement and I noted that would like some income producing hard assets, the kind that you can touch, see, fondle and dryhump, and didn't depend upon entirely upon dividends and bond payments. He gave me this wonderful book, complete with a DVD, about the wonderful new variable annuity products from Prudential with only about 8 - 10% expenses.
I made extra sure to take lots and lots of time, biting into the time for the poor dumb schmucks coming after me, and then I took his only book that he had available.
Threw it out after I got home. Honestly, I've never tried to dryhump a four-unit apartment building.
later all
It was noble to sacrifice yourself like that.
What is everyone's guess for q2 GDP as reported in the advance number tomorrow?
I'll start, 2.7%
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I raise you, 2.9%.
Hell, I'd take the over on the initial and be right and the under on the third revised and be right again.
Kinda like buying a lottery ticket and being allowed to turn it in again and again until you get the right one.
Instead of everyone trying to make happy news by comparing a statistic from this year to last year, when the economy was prostrate, how about comparing it to 2007 before various bubbles blew up and killed the economy?
EHP, sent you a quick email yesterday. Don't know if I got spammed out or not tho.
Jonathan wrote:
Sigh.
Inflation is defined as an increase in the general level of (consumer) prices. Deflation is the opposite. Disinflation is falling inflation. Monetary factors can cause inflation. Monetary factors are not themselves defined as inflation.
A reduction in incomes is a reduction in incomes, and is not the same thing as deflation. You can have deflation with rising (real or nominal) incomes, or inflation with rising (real or nominal) incomes. You can have deflation with falling (real or nominal) incomes, or inflation with falling (real or nominal) incomes. Some of these combinations are more likely than others, because of causal relationships. But all the combinations are possible, because the definition of inflation/deflation is not the same as the definition of rising/falling incomes.
Because in the new Oligarchic Amerika, we don't like to look at figures that are disagreeable with reality. Like Oprah in a bathing suit.
Hoops - Dude, the Amish have officially started their first community somewhere in South Dakota after selling their farm land elsewhere and getting in cheap. Find yourself a nice little filly and settle down on the wide open prairies. You need to go somewhere where the earth isn't baked.
The best strategy is to buy anything you think you might need the first year or two, and then hunker down.
From and end consumer standpoint it would make sense. From a business standpoint, it wouldn't make any difference. You collect VAT from your customers. Then you pay VAT either to your suppliers with each purchase, or you pay the difference between what you collected from your customers and what you paid to your suppliers, to the government.
So, if you had a hoard of inventory with $0 VAT paid on it, you would simply send all of your collected VAT to the government. Now, if you want to game the system for a while, you could sell your hoard for cash, collect VAT on it and pocket the VAT money. Just don't leave any sort of a paper trail.
Of course, that all depends on what you think a necessity is. Eye of the beholder and all that.
Rajesh wrote:
April May June with late June data being extrapolated. +3.2% GDP and a +1.5% market move.
patientrenter wrote:
But please don't repeat that Japan doesn't have deflation.
Well, you already know my number, but that is what I think it will be after the two revisions. Im thinking to save some serious face tomorrow, the initial print is 3.1%. Total BS of course, but hey, it's all part of the game. Noone really cares about the revisions, same as with the labor force data. Gaming the system recommences in tminus - 10 hours.
patientrenter wrote:
I'll bet if you buy a dozen, the price drops to as low as $7.
Rob Dawg wrote:
And let's face it: That's the only number that matters.
Nova
You were asking about chasing down thr relationships between people in a book you were reading. Try-
Muckety - Exploring the paths of power and influence
it's an interesting and entertaining site. And sometimes very revealing.
JP
oh cool, was going to bring up GaAs b/c of advanced semi and the bellcore hint and it was in theright in the subject line
OK, here's how crazy arse SF is these days. Despite tons of rental apartment vacancy, the new god awful ginormous previous VA hospital now converted to apartments, is starting to rent the first 40 of 154 apartments.
Get this - junior 1 br goes for $2175 a month, and is only 500 sq ft. Two bedroom units, 1100 to 1500 (read : small) are $4,325 a month.
I live right around the corner from this monstrosity, and I can tell you, anybody who lives there, when they can live on lake street for 75% of that, is out of their frickin mind.
(plus, the place has ghosts)
Here is what is looked like after the hospital closed :
Random: SF Abandoned Hospital
Jonathan wrote:
OK, here is where I tried explaining this before, a little more vividly than the dry reply I gave above a few minutes ago.
Comment by patientrenter from thread 'Paper: Policy helped avert Great Depression II'
Senator calls for BP tax probe - Jul. 29, 2010
?
RE wrote:
Japan's official consumer price index shows that consumer prices in Japan have been stable over the last 15 years. I realize that every country has issues with its general consumer price indexes. I've even looked briefly at Japan's. Some of the issues are similar to our own here in the US; some are unique. None appears to be very large, or surprising (to me). I would be interested in reading an article by a good economist with no ax to grind, comparing the possible biases in the Japanese index to the US.
I am afraid that, in a politicized world, it is getting harder and harder to find an economist with no ax to grind. The opinion of an economist with an ax to grind is nearly worthless.
OT:
Unions attack gov's call for NY worker layoffs - BusinessWeek
I picked 2.7% because it is a funny number and the FR have been acting funny
I think I will be wrong
patientrenter wrote:
The one I posted wasn't objective enough? IMO it was done by highly reputable economists, excellently researched and the linked research paper provides lots more detail.
Treasury: HAMP Re-default Rate incorrect | Hoocoodanode?
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Just watched a documentary (filmed I think by Nancy Pelosi's daughter) about homeless folks living in motels near Disneyland. She interviewed and filmed some families. Sometimes or more to a room. Children were ALL severely depressed and prone to succumbing to the "lure" of the streets and acting out in "criminal" ways (I use the quotes because this behavior usually springs from a deprived...read traumatic...childhood) . We are creating a whole generation of depressed, angry young people. That does not bode well for the future, among other things
She covered the issue of bedbugs. I've noticed "bedbugs" being mentioned in news headlines lately. I made the connection....the foreclosed-on laid-off folks are now living in motels...creating instant mini-slums, and leading to the proliferation of bed-bugs (read disease...they can carry diseases). To me it seems that the four horsemen are rapidly closing in on us. Perhaps my judgment clouded by the fact that I am getting old.
Inflation - deflation exact definitions don't mean much to most people.
I pay more and I earn less. Therefore I am sc
The Associated Press: NY governor planning at least 1,000 state layoffs
Section 502 May Return with Zero Down Payment Mortgages, 3.5% Guarantee Fee « HousingWire
"Zero downpayment policies are becoming more common. West Virginia just started a statewide program that allows residents to take out home purchasing originations for no money down at a 3.5% mortgage rate."
I really think we, as a nation, have learned less than nothing through all this. Postponed learning is painful learning.
Good on SEC
Wyly Brothers Indicted on $550 Million Fraud | The Big Picture
but they are easy targets
Lame ass SEC
BBC News - Citigroup agrees $75m fraud fine
they and the other 18 too fucking greedy to fail banks are protected targets by the clowns in Wash DC who are in collusion
Already Bought A 3D LCD In Anticipation Of QE "Instarefi" 1.999? You May Want To Consider A Refund | zero hedge
"MS and ML's Harley Bassman that the GSEs should provide some form of autorefi program to take borrowers to market rates. As this would impact a vast majority of the 37 million of mortgages outstanding backed by the government, not only would this housing stimulus have a huge impact on consumption appetites, but it would be a political coup as all of a sudden the administration would find tens of millions of giddy homeowners who are paying far less monthly, and quite satisfied with the way Obama has handled things"
RE wrote:
I will take a look, RE. I have to work for a living, so I miss some posts.
josap wrote:
I am afraid that is true. Just like creationism is still common in the US. I don't blame the people. It's just the education system that fails them.
patientrenter wrote:
I understand, patientrenter. No problem. Note that the linked full research paper is stored at the Bank of Japan.
They seem to think it is serious work.
More Liberal Lies:
BBC News - Fires rage on as Moscow suffers 'hottest day ever'
Rush said it was really cool in the pharmacy where he was picking up his oxy.
What other explanation could there be?
Inquiring minds want to know---
OT:
DPJ Lawmakers Urge Kan to Focus on Growth, Push Bank of Japan on Deflation - Bloomberg
16 years of deflation is apparently enough for some Japanese law makers.
GDD9000 wrote:
We have a project here called the Youth Mural Project. Lots of artistic talent displayed in those pictures. Too bad the talent is going into the formation of gangs. Gangs are going to govern us pretty soon. Coming to a neighborhood near you.
Still, mortgage strategists at Credit Suisse said the idea is "appealing in principal" but there are many barriers.
Pun intended?
Forget going Galt
The young are going Jersey Shore, selfish indulgence when they have nothing to lose
there is some talent...much of what you would deem talent, is similar to what you find when you travel to vietnam, and street painters will make you a five dollar canvas of a matisse print. But there are a few gems. Sadly, they probably come to nothing but eye candy for folks like us. Most people around here have no clue about the history of that place, and even people I know who were interested never saw those pics.
and btw, we are already governed by gangs. Elite gangs, with fancy weapons that they use on foreigners, mostly, to enrich themselves.
rich wrote:
rich, if you're still around, this is the business model for every service oriented industry.
You want to upgrade your cable TV? Press 3 and talk to a human being in 10 seconds.
You want to downgrade or cancel your cable TV? Press 4, then 2, then 7, then ... oh my, you're back to pressing 2 again!
Like a Chinese finger trap; easy to get in, hard to get out.
PS - See how many service providers allow you to cancel a service using the internet. But you sure can sign up for one easily enough.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Won't assign any reasoning, but one symptom of confidence in the market is how it goes into the weekend. A couple of years ago no trader wanted to go into the weekend long. Lately, it's been just the opposite.
So, logic be damned. Your +1/5% is probably a good guess.
RE wrote:
OK, read the summary piece.
The authors estimate that US C-CPI-U (Chained CPI-U) inflation will be 0.8% higher than the Japanese CPI inflation rate for the same level of underlying price changes in the US and Japan. They estimate that CPI-U, the reference index used to measure inflation in the US, reads 0.4% lower than the chained index, or 0.4% higher than Japan's.
Then they say that even the US C-CPI-U is biased down by 1%, because it does not adequately account for increases in quality.
So Japan's negligible (0.1% annual) deflation becomes 1.9% deflation if the US chained method, adjusted down further by 1% for quality increases, is used, according to the authors.
It is certainly a valid point of view. But it rests on a dismissal of the reference US inflation numbers, reducing them by 1.4%. The actual difference between Japan's reference CPI inflation and the US's reference inflation is just 0.4%, according to the authors' own estimates.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Perfect. Then revise down to 2.7 & again to 2.2.
The market reaction to negative revisions is actually positive as the comparison gets better. We could get 5% GDP every quarter even on 1% increase if Obama plays his cards right.
fairbanks alaska
end of the road...
shelves were scary empty
at safeway monday last ..
hear their profits were down 40 % this quarter
keep your pantry stocked..