Random Refereeing: How Uncertainty Hinders Economic Growth (With Reference to Lucky Puppies, Pepper...and Salt, Lawrence Summers and Thomas Jefferson) - Richard Fisher Speeches, 7-29-10 - News & Events - FRB Dallas

Report: Renesas plans massive layoffs

Umm this might leave a small mark.

SAN JOSE, Calif. - Japan's Renesas Electronics Corp. plans to cut nearly 10 percent of its workforce, or about 5,000 jobs

It's the heighth of summer and the Europeans are picking up the staycationers slack here @ hotels/motels in the Golden State...

http://www.newberryspringscoc.com/images/california_flag.png

I've always liked California's flag (maybe not as much as Az or Md though) and there seems to be a prescient message within...

It features something extinct (ever-shrinking biz opportunities) always chasing debt (that loan red star) on a sea of red ink...

have any large hotel chains gone BK or are they all successfully kicking the can?

if they somehow can all make it through this, just like the homebuilders, imagine how bold they will be next time? If you survived a huge bubble followed by the worst year in your industry since the depression, you must surely be immune to economic reality and should take much bigger risks and collect your much bigger rewards.

If the Icelandic volcanoes hadn't slowed down, 40% of our local hotels business would have gone away this summer, SNAP! just like that.

sum luk wrote:

Random Refereeing: How Uncertainty Hinders Economic Growth (With Reference to Lucky Puppies, Pepper...and Salt, Lawrence Summers and Thomas Jefferson) - Richard Fisher Speeches, 7-29-10 - News & Events - FRB Dallas

Not just uncertainty but deficits.

The point of hiring and capital investment is to make a future profit. But with the government running 10% deficits clearly all those future business profits are going to have to be confiscated to pay down government debts. Alternatively, failure of the government to pay those debts will cause so much financial and political upheaval that your business will probably be burnt to the ground anyhow by an angry mob.

So who in their right mind would start a new business or hire employees if it's all risk with no prospect of return?

noob goldberg wrote:

I singlehandedly was responsible for a 5% boost.

Your money or your expense account (OPM)?

montas ankle wrote:

I'm curious how others see this playing out

there is an orchestrated worldwide re-boot coming, after Ramadan

montas ankle wrote:

One simple question I have: if CR is right, and the next QE step, if taken, is to put a ceiling on the 2 and 5 yr yields, then wouldn't we expect the yield on the 10 and 30 yr to move upward rather rapidly (monetization creating the fear of future inflation, finally). And if so, wouldn't that hurt MBS markets and vis a vis destroy any sort of nascent housing recovery which is already getting kicked in the shorts?

"Simple" my furry brown belly. I thought for sure the cessation of MBS purchases and tightening of GSE buying standards would push the 10y Treasury 30y mortgage spread wider. Instead it has narrowed. Nothing in fundamental analysis works anymore. And related, this LATimes article from Saturday Jul 24th:

Stocks' gyrations' defy explanation - latimes.com

Paulsen, 52, was taught to evaluate investments based on "the fundamentals" — the nitty-gritty statistics in economic reports and corporate financial statements.

But in the last couple of years, and especially the last few months, he said, those fundamentals have told him little about the future movement of stock prices. Instead, the market seems now to move more than ever on waves of emotion and sheer momentum.

"At the end of the day, I live by the credence that fundamentals will win out over time," said Paulsen, chief
investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, a Wells Fargo & Co. unit that manages more than $300 billion in investments.

"But, you know, now sometimes I just feel like I should give back my degree and become a psychologist," he said.

The short answer is we are so deep in unexplored territory that everything will be a surprise including the expected.

USAIR delay made me miss my connection and I'm stuck in Charlotte for 4 more hours. If I can't find a club near the I might actually have to read FinReg . I know most out there would be hitting the but there's too much confusion. This is not our thing.

2300 pages, and there really is no shortcut.

12th Percentile wrote:

have any large hotel chains gone BK or are they all successfully kicking the can?

Foreclosures Reveal Red Roof Inn Distress

Ramalamba Ding-Dong

YouTube - Otis Day and the Knights Shama Lama Ding Dong

Good thing we're modeling our economy after progressive big spending countries like Greece:

The stand-off between striking truck drivers and authorities in Greece intensified today hours after the government issued an emergency order to force protesters back to work.

With fuel shortages stranding thousands of tourists and disrupting supplies of food and medicines nationwide, prime minister George Papandreou resorted to emergency legislation, more usually used at times of war or great natural disaster, to end the walk-out...

The ruling socialists called for the mobilisation – the fourth time since the collapse of military rule in 1974 that such an order has been issued – as it became clear that Greece was facing a public health crisis because of the strike.

On islands, where fuel supplies have totally run out, tourists could be seen abandoning rented cars by the side of the road while yachts remained docked in harbours or drifted out at sea.

Greek police fire tear gas at striking truckers | World news | guardian.co.uk

Why not just read the Cliffs notes, Wile e.?

volker the viking wrote:

careful, lest you become a high priced liability

You haven't seen my salary. Your fears are unfounded.

or strip it back to the essentials

Given: the people with the wealth are in charge

When one takes a few data points from there, overlays the similarities, co-synchronize the importance of the major religions as well as Masonic ritual, it's as clear as the air after a gentle rain.

good luck, yogi

How did HP LoanGraft's $700 Billion initial request go from but 3 pages to 451 in just a week or so, padded with $87 Billion, for good measure?

Cinco-X wrote:

The New Message From The Fed: WE ARE JAPAN

Does that mean Enjo Kosai is coming to a trending neighborhood near you?
.
Rob Dawg wrote:

Pp. 3 through 2300: These are not the loopholes you were looking for. Move along.

Nice. I almost want to rip out modern printing techniques just to make the laws simpler and save the trees. I say that the entire Senate committee that approves bills much write out the law 10x each to show they approved a vote. No more "Yea" or "Nay".

Watch A GOP Senator Struggle To Do The Math Around His Deficit Cutting Plans

Get ready for QE2

QE2 will be completely ineffective if all the money goes to the same guys who are still sitting on the last batch. Instead, it should go directly to me. I'll be happy to sign spending guarantees. In fact, I'll even pay a penalty if I don't spend it.

yagij wrote:

Does that mean Enjo Kosai is coming to a trending neighborhood near you?

Oldest profession?

wally wrote:

QE2 will be completely ineffective if all the money goes to the same guys who are still sitting on the last batch. Instead, it should go directly to me. I'll be happy to sign spending guarantees. In fact, I'll even pay a penalty if I don't spend it.

LOL. Yeah that's what the guys who received QE1 said.

Like I said earlier, F K the rentiers.

Cinco-X wrote:

Oldest profession?

The prohibition on prostitution should die. Srsly. As long as lobbyists and politicians can get paid above board, so too should the other folks.

Prostitution is legal in NZ, but drugs aren't.

America to President Obama - "Do we all look like Mrs Obama to you?"

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

It features something extinct (ever-shrinking biz opportunities)

Not extinct, still some in other states,...the term is extirpated.

Certainly, what do I have to lose! ~ Curly

YouTube - 3 Stooges - Disorder In The Court [Clip]

yagij wrote:

The prohibition on prostitution should die. Srsly. As long as lobbyists and politicians can get paid above board, so too should the other folks.

No problem there, but do away with criminalized while you're at it...and if you're going to allow Cap1 to charge 79% on CCs, we might as well allow the loansharking as well, assuming that they cease to do physical harm to "slow payers"...

Exactly.

bearly wrote:

if we get a VAT as the President has indicated...

The national VAT would do to the economy what repeal of Prop 13 would do to the California RE sector.

Vegas, if it was genuinely interested in surviving, would find a little of its inner Amsterdam-circa-1980.

bearly wrote:

How much is a business leader willing to invest in new plants/equipment if we get a VAT as the President has indicated is worth investigating, for example ? They will be shutting down a lot of what they have now.

Confidence is definitely a consideration for business, even though it's really more of a state of being hopeful for the future.

If the business community had more hope, they would have the confidence to invest. But it's hard to be hopeful when all you can see is a long decline ahead.

noob goldberg wrote:

After just spending 4 days in a hotel, I'll take credit for the bump.

Doesn't the 'model' get half the credit for the bump?

yagij wrote:

Encourage emigration?

Do I get extra points for leaving first?

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

Is there a better intro than this one?

some music might help

bearly wrote:

I think Fisher is correct that once we get certainty, we might get some movement on investment & jobs. The other side of the coin is, if the certainty we get isn't what business leaders like, things might get a lot worse than they are now.

Agreed. Who is going to hire without knowing costs? Who is going to spend, without knowing tax rates? Who is going to make a five year capital improvement without knowing actual costs.

Nevada is no place for drugs...

Last year on the way to and from Burning Man, the Nevada Highway Patrol were pulling cars over left and right for driving violations, that escalated into full-on searches, and like who isn't carrying?

CalculatedRisk wrote:

The reason they are not investing is there is too much capacity and not enough demand.

Isn't this more of an argument about price?

2 - Q: this reported occupancy rate is based on available rooms and does not include mothballed rooms which we don't have a good way to track?

Same Q, show me the denominator time series!

OT-Analyst opinions or guys/girls pushing the dice back to you after a lucky roll...
one example or 60% haircut...

FormFactor, Inc. Share Price Chart | FORM - Yahoo! Finance

analyst recommendation trend at bottom.even funnier yet are tons of sales pushes in news over last year...buy now....poised to move fast...etc..
FORM: Analyst Opinion for FormFactor, Inc. - Yahoo! Finance

I'm scaling in now....thanks for the rope a dope..

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:

The national VAT would do to the economy what repeal of Prop 13 would do to the California RE sector.

Explain, por favor....

Read all the other replies.

Massive dislocations as almost every form of economic activity redeploys in the face of a new tax. The VAT would create a massive underground economy of cash and barter for starters. Prop 13 being abolished by say a Federal Receiver of the bankrupt State would equally set off a mad scramble to trade properties at new presumed values. If my property taxes were to triple so that my neighbors could go down 30% the value of my house would go down by $200k and his by $400k. I know, weird but that's the kind of disruption I'm talking about. A national VAT reshuffles the entire economy.

Cinco-X wrote:

The New Message From The Fed: WE ARE JAPAN

I dunno... unless Japan is funding its consumers with borrowed money then I think the Fed is being way too optimistic with this comparison.

Really with US consumption being funded by government debt we're right back where we were in 2007.

shill wrote:

For the record, Obama is the first President ever to go on daytime "chat" television.

For the record, Obama is not the first president to go on daytime "chat" television.

Memo to Media: Obama is not "the first sitting president to appear on a daytime talk show" | Media Matters for America

Dr Phil is NOT chat

Right, that's my point - Vegas moved away from 'sin city' in the sleazy 70s to family fun in the ronnie years and then to dreams of big-ticket glitz in the bubble years - time to go back to the sleaze, and that means tolerated and an end on the blue-nose facade in:re in clark county, if they want to keep that employment from freefalling.

Anyone can play blackjack and get a resort-style massage in hundreds of indian casinos. But a safe, legal chance to freebase all weekend with a pair of quality VD-tested erotic professionals and top it off with an NFL bet with a screen as big as a football field is the kind of thing that can still trump AC, Macao and Injun Joe's house of craps.

Of course, as always, I'm at least a decade ahead of things.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

Since growth is sluggish, the business leaders have too much time

And sadly BoDs are asleep, because that is also the set of leaders who are expendable.

No wonder Fisher is sitting with his job creatin' "lucky puppies" - better'n prison labor

main article: The New New Deal: Public Money for Private Jobs - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com

The Work Of Depressions - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

" the vast majority of job losses have occurred in parts of the economy with little direct connection to the housing bubble"
"why we shouldn’t be using policy in an attempt to prevent vast job losses in parts of the economy that aren’t overblown."

--

Maybe we should look at why there are so many job losses in parts of the economy that are not overblown before throwing 'policy' at everything.

You're really onto something, Pavlovegas had never considered going after the meth dollar before...

Give it up mp. Facts are not important any longer. According to the rightie emails that go around, he's also the first to put his feet up on the desk in the oval office, the first to not go to Arlington on Memorial day, the first Muslim etc. etc. etc. Of course none of it is actually...you know..true but why let facts get in the way of a great narrative?

Sippn wrote:

I'm using a lot of cash right now and amazing the voluntary discounts......20% off my mechanics bill 2 days ago.

Underground Economy FTW! You go. Short -yogi's "digital cash" however. Paypal is just too transprent to the .

...watch for jumping

[police cruiser siren wails...] you just threw a burning object out your window, so let's search your trunk to see if you have more of that crap in there.

Bahh! Cops is the least i fear, I have 2 in the family, trust me if it were not for their authority it wouldn't surprise me if either of them could count past 10.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Crusades for the military industrial complex

I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest the resolution will be more peaceful for most, and maybe a bit dicey for the government of Iran. They don't know it yet, but the fix is in and their supposed silent ally (China) is in on it.

Breaking Video:
The Worst Auto Crashes You Will Ever See In Your Life!
- link deleted by kcoop -

Oh, please wise one, regale us with tales of selling people with SNAP cards damn near anything they wanted in your store, but it's ok because everybody else was doing it.

Vic wrote:

Yeah, ever heard of a business leader who doesn't want to make more money by any means possible?

Yvon Chouinard.

More Builder Evidence of impact of tax credit

shill wrote:

For the record, Obama is the first President ever to go on daytime "chat" television.

Your record is quite dissonant and broken.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

The reason they are not investing is there is too much capacity and not enough demand.

Isn't this more of an argument about price?

Not necessarily. For example, say a house you liked finally dropped to 'your' price. Would you buy? Would your answer be the same if you thought the price would continue down another 25 percent?

Rob Dawg wrote:

Massive dislocations as almost every form of economic activity redeploys in the face of a new tax. The VAT would create a massive underground economy of cash and barter for starters. Prop 13 being abolished by say a Federal Receiver of the bankrupt State would equally set off a mad scramble to trade properties at new presumed values. If my property taxes were to triple so that my neighbors could go down 30% the value of my house would go down by $200k and his by $400k. I know, weird but that's the kind of disruption I'm talking about. A national VAT reshuffles the entire economy.

I have to admit, liberal as I am, that I really liked Dubai, where there were no taxes and regulation. Enough to give all the free market people on this board a 6 foot boner.

Except, you know, it crashed and vaporized. You know, that little one negative.

The interesting point there is that the government owns everything, including DEWA, the power and water company. So if it were really to go bust: no desalinated drinking water.

Dubai: the logical conclusion of the Starve the Beast approach to governing.

The Associated Press: AP survey: A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011