But....

fell 4,500 to 452,500, reaching the lowest level since early May.

Chainsaw wrote:

The four-week average of these continuing claims fell 18,000 to 4.55 million, hitting the lowest level since late December 2008.

That's because all those people found new jobs. Right?

BelieverJeff wrote:

Who is it exactly that has such crappy expectating powers that they rely on?

Not who, but what.

12th Percentile wrote:

How many months or years at this level before we get to officially declare this the "New Normal"?

A better question would be how many months of supply do we have?

$
$
$
$
$
$
$

CalculatedRisk wrote:

Since when was 457,000 anything but a weak number?

it suggests a weak number

volker the viking wrote:

it suggests a weak number

you finally wake up, old man?......the 'nazi' didn't check that you actually swallowed your meds this morning?

CalculatedRisk wrote:

I'd ask: Since when was 457,000 anything but a weak number?

When the producers tell you the sponsors want good news.

Were saved!

Seems like everything is unexpected these days...

Comrade Kaboom wrote:

Seems like everything is unexpected these days...

Aren't "They" still funding the wars with "emergency" appropriations?

volker the viking wrote:

she's lost interest, feel a road trip coming on

.......the Mrs says I need some 'picking up' as well.....meet you at Sherri's Ranch.....

BelieverJeff wrote:

Shocker as CNBC reports claims fall more than expected.

The usage of "unexpected" has gotten completely out of control. Unless the number is exactly the widely published number (which is controlled and vetted by whom?) then the number is automatically "unexpected."

Economics and the MSM would do themselves a great service to introduce the concept of error bars. There's a reason they're used in honest science.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

Yeah, the consensus was for 460,000 and claims fell to 457,000.

The revision, when it comes, will put the "real" number over their "consensus" so...will that also be "unexpected"?

JP wrote:

Economics and the MSM would do themselves a great service to introduce the concept of error bars. There's a reason they're used in honest science.

They can't do that. It would decrease the amount of spin they could apply.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

what are we going to leave behind as evidence we were here?

septic tanks

amiramr0 wrote:

The difference between religion and science.

There is no error in religion. Each and every one of the thousands of different religions are the complete unvarnished truth.

Cat Daddy wrote:

The revision, when it comes, will put the "real" number over their "consensus" so...will that also be "unexpected"?

No, that will be unobserved.

upthread someone mentioned how to pay for something. It's easy - emergency extenders - that's the New York way.

NYS DOB: 13th Emergency Extender Bills

Lucky number 13.

Yalt wrote:

No, that will be unobserved.

And will be sufficiently large to show a drop in the following week.

JP wrote:

"unexpected"

That's "unexpected©". You'll all be getting your invoices by email as soon as my IT department chases down the bug in the software.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

...what are we going to leave behind as evidence we were here?

Big smoking crator?

MB wrote:

There is no error in religion. Each and every one of the thousands of different religions are the complete unvarnished truth.

And of course from the point of view of each believer, all other religions must be false.

File under if you don't laugh you'll cry

4 minute legislative session to discuss the budget or lack thereof costs $100,000.

YouTube - 4 minute budget session cost $100,000

I like the guy at the end of the video who was seemingly surprised to hear that someone attending community college was affected by the lack of a budget - apparently the college couldn't tell her how much tuition would be since they had no clue how much funding they'd get.

I imagine that student is going to run out and buy back to school clothes, books, etc. anyway right?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

...what are we going to leave behind as evidence we were here?

Behold the Wonders of Our Insatiable Conceits
And gaze upon the barren plain.
Where once our greatest triumphs lay,
Ruins, unmourned monuments decay.

With no regard for past or future,
Giants passed this way.
Windblown footsteps fade.

Dust and sand remain.

And now for some and
A Snapshot of the AP Economy Survey Results

For the second quarter of this year, the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. In the third quarter, it will grow at a 2.7 percent rate and in the fourth quarter, 2.9 percent.

There will be no slowdown it's contained.

HomeGnome wrote:

plastic.
Oh, burnside beat me to it.
Darn.

YouTube - The Graduate "One Word: Plastics" 

Joe Biden June 2010: "there's no possibility to restore eight million jobs lost"

Who is it exactly that has such crappy expectating powers that they rely on?

Some people just live surprises; they can't get enough of them.

wally wrote:

Some people just live surprises; they can't get enough of them.

Goldfish in a bowl. It's a new castle every time.

...but whatever you do, don't propose the battle of the bulge to her

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

Goldfish in a bowl. It's a new castle every time.

Perfect.

Waugh had that sense of 'antecedent probability' strongly. He commented once how it seemed most everyone must wander through life experiencing just one immense surprise after another. I'm reminded of him often, these days.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

...what are we going to leave behind as evidence we were here?

YouTube - Einstürzende Neubauten - Die Befindlichkeit des Landes

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

...but whatever you do, don't propose the battle of the bulge to her

Maybe his own bulge. Never hers.

:flush:

How 'bout, The number could have been worse ?

burnside wrote:

He commented once how it seemed most everyone must wander through life experiencing just one immense surprise after another.

No one studies history anymore. Too boring.

How 'bout, The number could have been worse ?

Shh! Obama is on the View. Must watch Tv.

gobble-gobble gulp

shill wrote:

Must watch Tv.

You'd be better off killing that TV of yours.

noob goldberg wrote:

No one studies history anymore. Too boring.

It's not a worthless study, but most people who are its students start learning for reasons that predispose them to finding the answers they desired when they started.

OT
from: Analysis: ETFs may be a factor in late-day market volatility
| Reuters

About 20 percent of daily volume is in the last hour of trading, said Matt McCall, president of Denver-based Penn Financial Group. Some investors say ETF rebalancing and reticence to hold positions overnight is boosting late-day volume.
* *
Of particular concern is the role of leveraged ETFs. These funds are designed to double or triple the return of an underlying index (or inverse) and are rebalanced daily in order to prevent deviation from the fund's target asset allocation.
...
That rebalancing causes buying or selling pressure, and it tends to take place during the final stretch of trading.
...
"ETFs are leading the market volatility because traders are going for leverage to get the big move, and that creates the volatility as they close out the session," said Penn Financial's McCall.

I hear spanish guitars when I dream of Salma Hayek...

sum luk wrote:

"ETFs are leading the market volatility because traders are going for leverage to get the big move, and that creates the volatility as they close out the session," said Penn Financial's McCall.

Thus hastening the volatility decay of the leveraged ETFs. It's a beautiful system.

History is cause and effect and affect, and most importantly...

Precedence

...anytime somebody says "it's for the children" run in the other direction

Kayaks?

That is if you believe these liberal lies!
NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48 Countries 

so is the state prison system for the guards..prisoners not so much...

adornosghost wrote:

Kayaks?

NO!
I'm not getting my new boat until next week.
Agent 6.2 - Dagger Kayaks

Layoffs Set For 50 San Jose Firefighters - cbs5.com

I don't see the fuss, let the fires fight themselves.

Schwarzenegger declares California fiscal emergency
| Reuters

NO!
I'm not getting my new boat until next week.

Nice HG....what no beer holders?

The Weather is saying 103F this afternoon.
That is effin' HOT.

Humorous take down of Glen Beck:
Everything You Need To Know About The Glenn Beck Goldline Scheme

...beware the Funds of August, perpetuated by the cashashination of the arch dupe

The Weather Nemo's Monkey is saying 103F this afternoon.
That is effin' HOT.

The humidity is so thick here in the North East you could cut it with a knife.

Phrase Of The Day: "Credible Commitment"

How it's used: The US needs to make a credible commitment to reducing its deficit... but in the meantime, let's spend, spend, spend.

Folks who may use the phrase include Nouriel Roubini, Ben Bernanke, Barack Obama, Tim Geithner, and the ratings agencies, with their empty threats to knock down the US sovereign debt rating.

I think we seriously need to take up some of the ideas to cool earth down instead of just dealing with greenhouse gases (which apparently we're unable to do do as a collective)

The most promising one I've heard of is blowing up a really big, silver balloon shield in space, that will block sunlight over a chunk of earth for a period of time, thereby cooling earth down.

Perhaps we can position it over the polar caps, or the middle of ocean or even over "name a country TPTB wants to embargo against".

adornosghost wrote:

I say let the market control the fires--- when there are to many, supply will be reduced.

If we're talking about wildfires, then there's some truth to that statement; it is a self regulating system. I suspect that this is not what you meant.....

hc wrote:

I think we seriously need to take up some of the ideas to cool earth down instead of just dealing with greenhouse gases (which apparently we're unable to do do as a collective)

A "mild" nuclear winter resulting from the obliteration of Iran and North Korea would work as well....

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:

your getting me fired up to do this again...

Go get ya some river, cclt!
I'll man the throw rope.

shill wrote:

Schwarzenegger declares California fiscal emergency

YouTube - Wont Get Fooled Again 

Mike in Long Island wrote:

YouTube - Brazil(1985) Trailer

...damn...on the same youtube list to the right was a 'waxing salon' vid..........I didn't know they just rip the hair out? What happened to that Nair product?......Wow......

YouTube - Marcy's Waxing Salon

Eight Months of Moving Sideways....and look for Sideways ( or worse ) for a couple or few more yrs.

The recession killed off 7.9 million jobs. It's increasingly likely that many will never come back.
7.9 million jobs lost, many forever - Yahoo! Finance

I'm all for letting most burn---
Yellowstone is a much healthier system, and it is part of the process.
Fire suppression, from timber, development, and cattle has created a ecology that is artificial.
Of course, with Global Warming, pine beetle infestation has created a situation that is truly freighting.
Development is fire prone areas is crazy, but the petri dish is getting full.

21 Reasons Why The So-Called "Recovery" Is A Joke For Most Americans

House on fire, neighbors watering down their homes, and not helping you put yours out?

Feature, not a bug. You want housing stock reduced, right?

{this is how long a Giant Sequoia pinecone is}

...from which trees almost the length of a football field come to be after thousands of years, but only after fire has come through, allowing them to take root

black dog wrote:

Looking back 99 weeks puts us into september of 2008 - just when the initial claims number made a break above the dashed line ....

Correct according to charts on pages 2 + 3 : http://www.bls.gov/ces/highlights122009.pdf

PDF

Markets losing a little weight here.

I'm not getting my new boat until next week.

Do you go whitewater kayaking or more touring? If its the later - you want a longer kayak for certain.

I like the hobie drive kayaks since my primary use would be fishing the back bays and estuaries for bass and hands free operation would be nice but they are $$.

YouTube - Hobie Kayak Owners Manual - Part 3 / The MirageDrive

YouTube - Kayak fishing Big Striped bass

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

OT: I must admit that I like the fact that they are getting a 25% tax credit on their clean-up costs.

So, San Jose doesn't have, like, 50 mid-level bureaucrats it could fire instead? This sounds like the Washington Monument strategy to me.

However, from most towns and cities I have seen, they probably do have too many firefighters.

Mike in Long Island wrote:

Do you go whitewater kayaking or more touring?

I've got a touring/ fishing yak already, Mike.
The Mirage Drive looks pretty nice.
We've got some great whitewater on the lower Saluda here in Columbia, SC.

Yancey Ward wrote:

However, from most towns and cities I have seen, they probably do have too many firefighters.

Not according to the response standards that a growing corps of professional firefighters have helped develop.

Another example of American ingenuity:
My Way News - In iPhone, adult industry sees pocket porn market

Moscow Breaks Heat Record as Peat Bog Fires Produce Smoky Haze Over City - Bloomberg

Firefighters are battling 340 blazes across Russia covering 86,658 hectares (214,136 acres) amid a drought that led the government to declare weather-related emergencies in 23 crop- producing regions. Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said on July 23 that the drought had damaged 10.1 million hectares, or 32 percent of all land under cultivation.

Russia has milled 33 million metric tons of grain, including 24.6 million tons of wheat, in the year to date, though yields fell to 23.2 centners per hectare from 28.5 centners a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website today. A centner is equal to 100 kilograms.

Wheat Stocks

World wheat stockpiles will decline by the end of June as drought damages crops in Russia and Kazakhstan, the International Grains Council said, slashing an outlook for higher inventories.

Stocks will drop to 192 million metric tons at the end of the 2010-11 crop year from 197 million tons at the end of June this year, the London-based council said in a monthly report today.

So with Russian wheat yields declining 18.6% YoY, current forecast is a global decline in wheat stocks of 2.5% YoY...one to keep an eye on as China is ramping up buying in other softs, though I haven't seen anything about wheat...noob, you out there?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

he told me there's a copper around every corner on the hunt for revenue, it shocked him, he said.

1010 A.D.: Brigands looking for weaklings to provide them with sustenance
2010 A.D.: Coopers looking for speeders to provide them with sustenance

energyecon wrote:

Moscow Breaks Heat Record as Peat Bog Fires Produce Smoky Haze Over City - Bloomberg

Peat fires suck. I remember being in NY back in the Summer of '81 and having some of those break out; you could think you put them out, but they'd just travel underground, and sometimes show up behind you and cut off your retreat. That was ~30 years ago....

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

and he told me there's a copper around every corner on the hunt for revenue, it shocked him, he said.

Another interesting anecdote about revenue generation by the town. We used to park free on the street about 5 mins away from the station for years. The police just put a sign banning parking on the street "temporarily". No explanations given and no signs of roadwork. They are trying to push everyone to park in the newly constructed privately operated parking lot. Not sure if the town gets a cut of the parking revenue.

Vic wrote:

Not sure if the town gets a cut of the parking revenue.

The town at least gets tax revenue.

We saw the coppers melt into the background in New Orleans when the situation got too hot with Katrina, and our constabulatories face a problem similar to our troops in the sandboxes, as they are easily identifiable, as they are the only ones in uniform. (aside from airplane pilots)

If they keep pissing off people with petty attempts to prolong their pay, public opinion could go against them...

...shift happens

Not sure if the town gets a cut of the parking revenue.

Now you know where the town manager invested. Smart move. You want to be one step removed and not make a rookie mistake like the Bell dude.

from sum luk's linky:

Hot, drought-like conditions in parts of western Europe, southern China and Kazakhstan have hit crops at a sensitive point in their growth cycle. Naturally, that has led to cuts in official output forecasts from these regions.

On the other end of the scale are the Ukraine, northern China and parts of Canada. Heavy rains have interfered with harvests in all three countries. And in Canada, wet weather has kept farmers from planting enormous areas of land.

Even in the U.S., the Department of Agriculture recently cut its forecast for the amount of acreage devoted to corn. And the higher corn prices go, the more farmers will switch to wheat to feed their animals.

Global wheat demand is already on the rise too. China’s poor weather means it needs to import more of the commodity than normal. The Canadian Wheat board expects to more than double its sales to China.

YouTube - THE BEATLES BACK IN THE U.S.S.R

Saw a funny bumper sticker this morning:

If you're gonna ride my ass at least pull my hair.

I know, I know....familyblogfamilyblogfamilyblog

How We Ended the Great Recession

WARNING Read on an empty stomach.

( Yes a re-post ) I actually just finished reading it....( Burp ) comes to mind.

I wonder if Zandi was alphabetically-disadvantaged in school?

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

a little food tension

and a little more

Wheat rust and world farming: Rust in the bread basket | The Economist

Grains are poor nutrition, and destroy ecosystems,, gobble fossil soils and aquifers, biocide is needed for their existence, and use huge amounts of oil (with a negative EROEI).

Unfortunately they make up a large portion of calories consumed by humans on Earth.
After we go through "The Adjustment", the survivors, if any, will need to not make the same mistake of grain production.

I predict they will stay above 0%.

Yep. They'll probably skip 30yr 0% mortgages and go straight to giving houses away - well not giving them away. You'll buy lottery tickets and they'll have weekly drawings. The "lucky" winners are responsible for taxes going forward.

energyecon wrote:

edit: well, besides being a wheat farmer with crop to sell!

It'll help the few wheat farmers in Canada who aren't located in the prairies, or those who are luckily on higher ground, but for the most part those aren't the guys I'm dealing with right now

And I haven't been monitoring stem rust in Eurasia. There's someone else in my office who monitors disease and crop research, so I get to avoid all of those fun meetings and reports

YouTube - Ukulele weeps by Jake Shimabukuro

And I should just trust these standards- why?

Rob Dawg wrote:

You might want to review the math of whomsoever is making these claims. The case is likely for beef and ethanol but not for food grains.

Agreed, with proper crop rotation, grains are quite easy on the soil.

As far as pesticides, that's a corner we've now painted ourselves into. Most of the strains and varieties that we're resistant to many forms of disease and pests have now been sidelined and replaced by varieties that produce more product, even if you have to spray it down with god knows what.

adornosghost wrote:

Unfortunately they make up a large portion of calories consumed by humans on Earth.

http://www.environnement.ens.fr/perso/claessen/agriculture/mistake_jared_diamond.pdf

From Jared Diamond, who thinks that agriculture was the worst mistake made by mankind.

This is the conclusion of the paper, it is a good read.

Thus with the advent of agriculture and élite became better off, but most people became worse off. Instead of swallowing the progressivist party line that we chose agriculture because it was good for us, we must ask how we got trapped by it despite its pitfalls.

One answer boils down to the adage "Might makes right." Farming could support many more people than hunting, albeit with a poorer quality of life. (Population densities of hunter-gatherers are rarely over on eperson per ten square miles, while farmers average 100 times that.) Partly, this is because a field planted entirely in edible crops lets one feed far more mouths than a forest with scattered edible plants. Partly, too, it’s because nomadic hunter-gatherers have to keep their children spaced at four-year intervals by infanticide and other means, since a mother must carry her toddler until it’s old enough to keep up with the adults. Because farm women don’t have that burden, they can and often do bear a child every two years.

As population densities of hunter-gatherers slowly rose at the end of the ice ages, bands had to choose between feeding more mouths by taking the first steps toward agriculture, or else finding ways to limit growth. Some bands chose the former solution, unable to anticipate the evils of farming, and seduced by the transient abundance they enjoyed until population growth caught up with increased food production. Such bands outbred and then drove off or killed the bands that chose to remain hunter-gatherers, because a hundred malnourished farmers can still outfight one healthy hunter. It’s not that hunter-gatherers abandonded their life style, but that those sensible enough not to abandon it were forced out of all areas except the ones farmers didn’t want.

If you own a swimming pool, become your own volunteer fire department, for about $800.

195 gallons a minute coursing through your hands from the gas powered pump sucking it out of the pool, and you'e all over the fire, you can hit anything 100 feet away or more, with a 1 1/2 inch nozzle

A good example of begging the question:

Conclusions

The fnancial panic and Great Recession were massive blows to the U.S. economy.Employment is still some 8 million belowwhere it was at its pre-recession peak, andthe unemployment rate remains above 9%.The hit to the nation’s fscal health has beenequally disconcerting, with budget defcits in fscal years 2009 and 2010 of close to $1.4 trillion.

These unprecedented defcits refectboth the recession itself and the costs of the government’s multi-faceted response to it. The total direct costs, including the TARP, the fscal stimulus, and other efforts, such as addressing the mortgage-related losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are expected to reach almost $1.6 trillion. Adding in nearly $750 billion in lost revenue from the weaker economy, the total budgetary cost of the crisis is projected to top $2.35 trillion, about 16% of GDP. For historical comparison, the savings-and-loan crisis of the early 1990s
cost some $350 billion in today’s dollars: $275 billion in direct costs plus $75 billion due to the associated recession. This sum was equal to almost 6% of GDP at that time.

It is understandable that the still-fragile economy and the massive budget defcits have fueled criticism of the government’s response. No one can know for sure what the world would look like today if policymakers had not acted as they did—our estimates are just that, estimates. It is also not diffcult to fnd fault with isolated aspects of the policy response. Were the bank and auto industry bailouts really necessary? Do extra UI benefts encourage the unemployed not to seek work? Shouldn’t bloated state and local governments be forced to cut wasteful budgets? Was the housing tax credit a giveaway to buyers who would have bought homes anyway? Are the foreclosure mitigation efforts the best that could have been done? The questions go on and on.

While all of these questions deserve careful consideration, it is clear that laissez faire was not an option; policymakers had to act. Not responding would have left both the economy and the government’s fscal situation in far graver condition. We conclude that Ben Bernanke was probably right when he said that “We came very close in October [2008] to Depression 2.0.”11

While the TARP has not been a universal success, it has been instrumental in stabilizing the fnancial system and ending the recession. The Capital Purchase Program gave many fnancial institutions a lifeline when there was no other. Without the CPP’s equity infusions, the entire system might have come to a grinding halt. TARP also helped shore up asset prices, and protected the system by backstopping Fed and Treasury efforts to keep large fnancial institutionsunctioning. TARP money was also vital to ensuring an orderly restructuring of the auto industry at a time when its unraveling would have been a serious economic blow. TARP funds were not used as effectively in mitigating foreclosures, but policymakers should not stop trying.

The fiscal stimulus also fell short in some respects, but without it the economy might still be in recession. Increased unemployment insurance benefts and other transfer payments and tax cuts put cash into households’ pockets that they have largely spent, supporting output and employment. Without help from the federal government, state and local governments would have slashed payrolls and programs and raised taxes at just the wrong time. (Even with the stimulus, state and local governments have been cutting and will cut more.) Infrastructure spending is now kicking into high gear and will be a signifcant source of jobs through at least this time next year. And business tax cuts have contributed to increased investment and hiring.

When all is said and done, the fnancial and fscal policies will have cost taxpayers a substantial sum, but not nearly as much as most had feared and not nearly as much as if policymakers had not acted at all. If the comprehensive policy responses saved the economy from another depression, as we estimate, they were well worth their cost.

Cinco-X wrote:

21 Reasons Why The So-Called "Recovery" Is A Joke For Most Americans

The top 1% is recovering nicely, and that's all that matters.

shill wrote:

And so there you have it, the ultimate in hypocrisy. The agency, that regularly files charges against corporations that fail to disclose material facts, snuck into the Finance "Reform" Bill regulations that will allow it to hide material facts about its own operations.
SCUM BAGS!

+100

Cinco-X wrote:

a more accurate statement might have been "Grains are a necessary ingredient for the advent and sustenance of MY civilization".

Cinco-X wrote:

Good call Rob; a more accurate statement might have been "Grains are a necessary ingredient for the advent and sustenance of civilization". It's remarkable how some folks come up with this sort of thinking.

The comments of late have really veered into uninteresting tinfoil territory. See above with the "Globe & Mail" bad science global warming, then harvest disasters and this bit about energy math. IIRC eating the grain and burning the chaff yields 6-8x the energy input for cereal grains.

Rob Dawg wrote:

The comments of late have really veered into uninteresting tinfoil territory. See above with the "Globe & Mail" bad science global warming, then harvest disasters and this bit about energy math. IIRC eating the grain and burning the chaff yields 6-8x the energy input for cereal grains.

If you look at his reply, the article he references actually refutes his thinking. It's an argument AGAINST eating feedlot beef, not that I necessarily agree with that either.....

...und im Westen, nichts neues.

Hey, why don't we all just forget about those things happening around us, and get on with building and selling new houses-- that is what is going to bring us out of this "temporary down turn, the cycle always goes up", if we already have not turned the corner.
I'm a science guy, I hang out here to see learn the about business.

adornosghost wrote:

It is not defensible-- I eat only grass fed, local beef.
We have only been eating grain fed beef in quantity from the 1950s on, brought on by misguided ag subsidies and surplus grains.

It helps if you have a population that thinks it needs to eat 3 pounds of some kind of meat a day.
I'm no vegetarian or health nut, but I couldn't stand to eat meat every day, much less every meal.

adornosghost wrote:

Od course I eat veggies and protein, and try to avoid grains, for health and ethical reasons.

You're the first person I've heard to not eat grains for either of those reasons. Not a judgement, just an observation...

I would try to avoid corn if it was at all possible, but I think that agricultural lesson will have to be learned by all of us collectively, and the hard way.

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

It's not a worthless study, but most people who are its students start learning for reasons that predispose them to finding the answers they desired when they started.

That's not history, that's politics. History is evidence based. Politics should be evidence based, but it seldom is.