More Builder Evidence of Tax Credit Goose, Post-Credit Bust
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 07/28/2010 - 2:04pm (310 comments)
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!!!!! I missed the whole California thread, so at least I get to be first.
dang, TL harshin out on folks. Go TL, it's yer birthday. Hehe.
Again, JP, nice hat.
lawyerliz wrote:
Well, you MUST read it later, for the cougars-now-working-at-Hot-Dog-on-a-Stick discussion.
Rob Dawg wrote:
The demographic shift will be beneficial for Cali Liberals.
But they won't be able to real prosper from this, as they run out of other people's money.
Yes, but with the FedGov bailout, they have access to the entire country's money (as well as China's ).
I need a translation of Tom's final paragraph. Are these ignorant ones overstating or understating sales? I think he's saying that they are overstating. Seems to be underscoring the lag between contracts and closings, and criticizing those who sum them to get total sales. Did I get that right??
I heard on NPR that Habitat For Humanity was not the 4th largest builder in Florida. And was about at that level the year before, but wasn't counted, 'cause it was a charity.
To dryfly - from last thread: I wasn't saying that Meg Whitman's campaign so far has shown her to be unqualified to be Guv; I was just thinking it's showing her to be pretty bad at campaigning, while Brown is pretty good at it. My odds are on Brown to win.
We need a homes for clunkers, buy a new house get the feds to pay 25% of it, plus a 10 year tax break. That might help bubble re-inflation.
~splat
...stop it, it’s just wrong, and doing so makes you look like a fool! - CR
Bill sounds a bit irritable.
This Is Real: The White House Wants To Stimulate The Economy By Building More Cheap Housing
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
But only enough to keep them out of BK. Does this make Cali the new Welfare Queen?
Checking through my foreclosure dockets to make sure I'm not missing anything.
Talked to a client who said business was better 6 months ago, but now she says it's terrible again.
She had paid her mtg down to 40k and then "somebody" told her to pull her equity out and buy more stuff. Which she did.
Now she is losing both condos she bought AND her house. She can't mediate because the income is so low. Yes, this was a bad thing to do, but I feel so sorry for her.
She has worked her whole career for her hub's business, and now has to look for a job. In this really bad job environment. Talk of recovery is now starting to get me enraged.
dshort.com: Debt, Taxes and Politics
Aaaaaaarrrrrghhhh.
lawyerliz wrote:
Maybe they'll target Miami!!!!!
alex black wrote:
CA is just the hot blonde chick you keep throwing money and then she leaves you on Valentine's Day.
We were on the verge of a big quake in the Golden State last thread, but it didn't happen.
alex black wrote:
My take was if she sounds like an idiot she prolly is an idiot and perfectly qualified to be guv. But you could be right 'cause if I'm not mistaken Brown has proven again and again going back years to be an idiot so maybe he really is the more qualified.
GDD9000 wrote:
After I put it on, my wife thought I was the bees knees.
I have very fond memories of Amboise.
BTW, have we met?
It's a shame more people in this country aren't educated about economics. If they were, the anti-Keynesians could develop into a pretty powerful political party almost. As it is, we're just a country of complainers who can't propose any alternative solutions.
scone wrote:
Lawler wrote the piece - CR just posted it.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Yeah, but we were showin' you a good time while it lasted.
"Bill sounds a bit irritable. "
It's called IBS. Irritable Bill Syndrom
If builders aim for 3x gross median and build small, well-designed houses that sell for $160k, people would buy, and they'd make money. There is some trend in that direction. The last thing we need is more 3000sq ft houses on 4000sq ft lots.
One of my other clients, the one who got a mod, and then never got turned down just ignored has sent every single piece of paper they've wanted and never got an answer, not even a no.
another reached the end of the road, and a bidder--not the bank--got the property for 55.7k, while the judgment was well over three times that.
But would they settle with the owner for say, half? No, they will not. It makes no sense.
alex black wrote:
Cool...this will be interesting to watch. A capital gains tax cut, and $10B more in the hole. What is her campaign slogan, "we'll get a bailout"?
It's a keeper (and prolly your wife too for that matter.)
And no, we havent, but I like to do a little sleuthing now and again based on people's comments. You required about five mouse clicks.
You would have to be an idiot to want to be governor of Kali. Hey, why not 4 furlough days in Kali or 5?
Ty Webb: You take drugs, Danny?
Danny Noonan: Every day.
Ty Webb: Good. Then what's your problem?
Danny Noonan: I don't know.
Well, I could have told from the tone that someone other than CR had written it, or that he wrote it on meth.
Speed wrote:
Low cost producers can make a killing in this environment - whether in building, mfg or services. As per housing the reason it won't work a lot of places [like Cali or NYC] is you need access to readily plentiful cheap land to hit numbers like $160K or less [less here]. High sunken cost at the start will make it very difficult to come in cheap enough to be in under the 'liquidation price' of the existing overhang. But in places where land is dirt cheap - it could happen & will work.
Reading Lawler's piece CR posted - looks like Meritage is doing the opposite - shifting effort from cheap low margin 'land a plenty' texas to Florida Cali & others with higher costs & supposedly 'margins'.
If things really get out of hand, we'll furlough...
YouTube - Eight Days A Week - The Beatles
lawyerliz wrote:
Meg Whitman is saying she wants to make the legislature in Sacramento "part-time" as a constitutional amendment. How about a part-time state government in general?
Stalker. That will cost you one
whenever you travel to DC.
I haven't been particularly secretive about my identity, which probably provides the proper censorship on my typing fingers.
Hehe...it's nothing personal. I just like to dig. It's part of my job actually. Well not that part in particular, but the basic methods. Havent been to DC in a while, but if Im there, you'll get a J6P. I tend to be more secretive, but if someone went back through all my posts, they might be able to figure out who I am.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Why go half way? Liz has it right - 100% furlow.
That's right, apparently our central planners, in their infinite wisdom have decided that what the economy is really lacking right now is more cheap housing.
this type of blatently biased editorializing should automatically disqualify the source. Not only is it disingenuous ("cheap", instead of "affordable"), it is derogatory. Businessinsider sounds fishy, and smells even more fishy.
"company's..."
Use the "[sic]" button, CR.
All the counties seem to be moving the foreclosure cases to a separate division, which they will probably under nourish. (A diviision is one judge plus baliff and a couple of secretaries). The one in Broward has a couple of retired judges sitting.
It seems that the foreclosures have used up too much judicial time, and the divorces and collections efforts etc were not getting enough time.
This will not end until the banks accept cramdowns.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
It's "Sending CA further down the tubes !"
I believe Jerry Brown's is "Headin' down the tubes with CA"
~splat
barfly wrote:
It was a quote from Rosie Rios, 43rd and current Treasurer of the United States. Are you saying that she really didn't say that?
If you have all cash, florida already has cheap housing.. $160k will now buy you something very very nice. If you have even 30 or 40 k you might get something.
...you guys are missing the obvious marketing possibility here, if you vote for Meg-you get a Whitman Sampler. No muss-no fuss & chocolate
She's blown $71 million of her own money already, why not leave a trail of candy in her wake?
But wait, haven't been paying attention. This is the Jerry Brown of old? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahehehehehehehehehohohohohohohohohohohohohohoho.
Can you read?
I see the grammar gendarme has made an appearance...
Rios used "affordable". The article used "cheap", and "central planners". Barfly quoted the article.
lawyerliz wrote:
Awesome isnt' it ? Out of a state filled with Democrats we get a choice of HIM or Meg Whitless
~splat
On the bright sight, retired FL judges may be able to work for ass many years as they like..resulting in lots of spendable cash
lawyerliz wrote:
Governor Moonbeam
Find me something with alptential, and we'll talk
rosethorn wrote:
Fascinating!
When I read that, I thought surely it was an offspring or a person with the same name. . .
thank you, yogi. Cinco is in such a rush to discredit the administration that he doesn't differentiate between the editorializing and the content.
dryfly wrote:
I stand corrected. Tom sounds pissed off!
I guess they are double dipping, must be nice. But see, they are temporary, so it doesn't count.
I'll just fix it ...
Tom is very funny. I'm glad he lets me post some of his stuff.
best to all
barfly wrote:
Did she say it or not? The link was there as was a quote-
Out here in So. Utah the building of new, low cost homes has significantly increased in the past 4-months. As previously reported, the model is to cheaply buy up development land that other builders lost in 2008-2009, then require the materials suppliers and trades to furnish their products/service on the basis of payment after the house is sold. Vendor financing the house, so to speak. It's a pretty sweet deal since the lots have approved plans and all the infrastructure in place and they don't have to front money during construction. Houses are prices $170k - $240k for maybe 2,200 sq. feet on a third acre.
barfly wrote:
It is very hard to follow a sub-thread without participants using the reply function.
Florida isn't keen on habeas corpus or speedy trials from what I remember, but there are Constitutional limits. And it isn't in a child's best interest to put off a custody hearing for a couple of years.
Banks can wait their turn.
We never would have guessed it wasn't you, CR!!!
We'd be fools not to notice!!!
Rob Dawg wrote:
lawyerliz wrote:
Awww. Our little Moonbeam is all growed up!
Use that money to finance the REOs. 30 cents on the dollar, not 50 even.
I have been moaning about the REOs for years now, but does anybody listen?
Maybe these awful choices will inspire a 3rd party? Any decent Repubs? But wait, sorry I asked.
"I'd like what is rush to judgement for $100, Alex"
Cinco-X wrote:
I suspect deliberate but as you know I am a kind and generous creature slow to take offense and quick to forgive.
scone wrote:
Wouldn't that be Sunbeam? I'm thinking white bread.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I have yogi on ignore, primarily for cr@p like that, and for general
ing-
lawyerliz wrote:
Hey, they've got Androids, Moonbeams, actors, and Terminators. What more could you want?
scone wrote:
If we could harness the power of his dad turning over in his grave we could build a subway from WeHo to Tenderloin.
dryfly wrote:
Let me translate the builder talk. "We don't want to bother getting our cash from low margin markets. We focus on the bonus plan. CA is expensive, unless you bought the land someone else so graciously spent money and time developing so we could buy it at 15% of cost." "we were surprised" means "we got everything out of you we could"
If builders aim for 3x gross median and build small, well-designed houses that sell for $160k, people would buy, and they'd make money. There is some trend in that direction. The last thing we need is more 3000sq ft houses on 4000sq ft lots.
.........................................
Thats what I've been seeing here in Birmingham the past 2-3 months. Smaller, but still well appointed, garden homes showing up on the market. Priced 129k-149k. Seems the under 150k area is the sweet spot around here. 150-200k moving real slow and anything over 250k sits on the market forever. I just wish they'd get over the pergraniteel thing and avoid the HGTV approved babysh1t brown color palette.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Jerry Brown? I still can't believe it.
Hey, lets everybody write in the Dawgster for Cali gov!!
Can I vote too? Florida is almost California!
Cinco-X wrote:
This time it is barfly and there's little doubt as to the reason for breaking the continuity.
"I suspect deliberate but as you know I am a kind and generous creature slow"
Well hells bells. So you ARE a Democrat then!!
JUST JOKING!! I'm in the land of the pseudo Democrats myself with plenty of passive aggressive resentments floating under the surface.
dryfly wrote:
"work for ass"
This is legal in Florida?
Cinco,
apparently you think that the businessinsider headline and editorial comment preceeding the Rios material was written by Rios, as well. It wasn't. Go back and re-read my post and see if you can figure out the difference.
Some have thought so, but it turns out that it isn't.
So the prospective buyers would be folks that were foreclosed out of ther previous residences?
In all serioiusnees, though, that sounds like a pretty good business model if as the developer you can minimize exposure to the construction loan. It would obviously mean the trades folks would be showing up at the loan desks looking for financing. Interesting!
Rob Dawg wrote:
Barfly answering yogi....
YouTube - Hands Across America 1986
You should get out of the house more often:
YouTube - CALIFORNIA CREEKING MAY 08
Come on, poic!
For any of you home renovators out there.
I'm blown away at the quotes I'm getting for putting in a wooden fence. How hard is it to build a quality fence?
Also am I crazy to think about redoing my wooden floors myself. I hear the drum sanders can be hard to use and an orbital sander isn't going to do the job on a larger wooden surface. TIA.
Danny wrote:
What entities would an anti-Keynesian group consist of?
lawyerliz wrote:
I am Governor Jerry Brown
My aura smiles
And never frowns
Soon I will be president...
YouTube - dead kennedys california uber alles lyrics
barfly wrote:
The headline was generated by HCN and businessinsider; all I did was post the link. The quoted section is from Rios, and while worded slightly differently, conveys an equivalent meaning....
Maybe he's Jerry's brother...
I still have a small account at BankUnited.
They desperately want me to take out a business line of credit. But I think they'd want me to pay it back!!
They are not making any real estate loans at the present time. . . .
Apparently the"real"profits in the homebuilding industry come from staying busy, rebuilding optimism, goosing the company's stock price, and then selling your stock (common, not housing).
This time it is barfly and there's little doubt as to the reason for breaking the continuity. - RD
and what would that be?
lawyerliz wrote:
Don't_you_dare!
Seriously. California is ungovernable as it is currently. It is too big for anything less than a Federal/Provincial/Prefecture structure. The dysfunction works in the other direction s well. there are 170 water districts in my county alone. The Executive branch is a vestige. The Legislature is all powerful and insular. The Judiciary... don't even go there.
Let us let it fall and pick up the good pieces.
That's every public company, but especially those without a high divy and with a decent-sized market cap.
Churn baby churn.
Rob Dawg wrote:
That's the conclusion I've come to as well, Dawg.
The sun's got to shine and builders gotta build.
Nobody wants to let go of anything no matter how futile holding onto it is.
That's what I've been saying, RD. PR got a commemorative quarter last year, as did American Samoa. Don't they get to vote for president and not pay state income tax?
poic wrote:
No, I am a Conservative. Slow to anger is right. Quick to forgive is right. It is a constant effort to keep making the distinction with Republicans and the zealots in their midst.
@chainsaw
I was similarly confused, but I think your interpretation is correct.
lawyerliz wrote:
Epsom salts.
scone wrote:
ROFLMMFAO!
Nicely done, scone.
/gasp>/ /wheeze/
It is called "New Banking".
The quoted section is from Rios, and while worded slightly differently, conveys an equivalent meaning.... - cinco x
I contend it is a subtle shift in meaning, and therefore intent. But whatever, have it your way. I see it's hopeless to try to explain it to you.
poic wrote:
Engineered "hardwood" is great stuff for anything that doesn't have a DAR plaque on the outside.
That said, it is the rare real hardwood floor that cannot be refinished. The deal is that the pros do it better so the correct tool is a checkbook.
barfly wrote:
CincoX, the
?
HomeGnome wrote:
No, barfly does that all the time when he gets caught. SOP.
They should have used Nova's American Apocalypse.
The Year America Dissolved
No, barfly does that all the time when he gets caught. SOP. - RD
caught at what? Trying to point out propagandistic editorializing? GMAB.
with respect to housing, there's a huge difference between the terns "cheap housing" and "affordable housing," the latter possessing policy context.
Look. Here's the link:
This Is Real: The White House Wants To Stimulate The Economy By Building More Cheap Housing
make up your own mind.
Basel Too wrote:
The pertinent quote was pasted and linked...
Cinco-X wrote:
Then Barfly pointed out the bias in the "reporting" on BI. It isn't entirely clear where editorials begin and reporting ends on the site. Obviously, making homes "affordable is a different concept from building new homes, whether they are labeled "cheap" or affordable". It's regrettable that the US Treasurer can't simply state that making shelter less expensive is a desirable goal for the Administration; instead, she has to phrase everything in terms of "jobs" or "stimulating the economy", as if affordable housing is less valid a goal than profits to investors.
She's an easy mark for a sharpie like Joe Weisenthal at BI. We may not need more houses, but we certainly could use lower house prices.
barfly wrote:
And here's the quoe from the link:
von Beck,
Wow, that is the plot line of the AA series...hmmm
Probably so, but the word "cheap" has different meanings, too, while "affordable" seems to have a narrower range- cheap can mean affordable, but the reverse is not always the case.
barfly wrote:
No reply link, inadequate content. SOP.
nova wrote:
I know, that is why I shared it. Cough...damn hacks...cough....
poic wrote:
Very easy. Boring.
>
Sanders all suck. If you've never done it before, and the finish is thin, make a floor scraper-- it's like using a straight razor. it takes longer, but you have better control. Alternatively, you can strip the finish. If it's something really old like shellac, you're in like Flint.
If you must use a floor sander, take off the finish in layers, don't try to grind it all off at once, and don't stand there with the sander on, keep moving, otherwise it digs a hole. And the corners are a bitch-- you'll have to scrape that out or get one of those tiny little German sanders that sound like dentists' drills.
(And thanks, HG--
)
barfly wrote:
If they subsidize the industry and get people to work, its the easy way out but doesn't address the structural problems (frmr industry talking here) Just kicking the can...
lawyerliz wrote:
I loved that bank, just for its name. They actually had "BK" in the ticker symbol (BKUNA)! So cool.
Giant Panda Accidently Gassed in China - TIME NewsFeed
poic wrote:
Its not hard, just that quality much more expensive than building your typical fence.
thanks everyone for the input.
I'm thinking of doing the fence myself. But the floor I'm leaning towards paying someone. It's good quality older wood and I'm not the most patient person when spending hours doing renovation work. I have read that the drum sanders can easily gouge the wood.
There's gouging in the wood already that needs to be taken out so it does look like I definitely would need to go the drum sander route.
Had lunch with a FBI guy who specializes in murders an interrogations, a homicide detective, and a criminal law attorney. Serious black humor in a Irish bar. I got my economic doom here and my society in decline doom there.
poic<
Pay someone to do the floor.
nova wrote:
Did you help him cheat on his surveillance standards exam?
Yeah HG that's what I'm thinking too. Hows the kayaking going?
depending on how many posts you're installing, i'd recommend renting a gas auger instead of using the post digger.
Rob Dawg wrote:
True dat! The only way to really appreciate a tradesman's work is to try it once.....took me 3 redo's to appreciate grouting (overtempered, unmatched,etc.) Many overlook their own shoddy work when they do it them selves.
the pros do it better so the correct tool is a checkbook.
...................................................
Gotta agree with the Dawg on this one. It's real easy to wreck a floor with a drum sander, they take some practice to get it right. Its near impossible to match old growth hardwood with new if you gouge out big divots with that sander. I found out the hard way-and ended up with an engineered floor. Looks real nice, but an expensive lesson.
poic wrote:
Ordered my new ship yesterday.
Should be in in about two weeks....
Agent 6.2 - Dagger Kayaks
Any of you Cali folks live near Upper Cherry Creek?
YouTube - Upper Cherry Creek 2008
Basel Too wrote:
Unless its hard pan or rock, then a jack hammer (like the pros). Recruit a nice blond for refreshment duty, etc.
It's roughly 120 feet and I was planning posts every 8 feet.
Okay you all convinced me to pay to have the floor redone.
"cheap" can mean many more things than "affordable", none of them very savory. It can mean chintzy, for example, or crappy, even. I maintain that it is a subtle linguistic trick to discredit the administration.
Beyond the headline, there are the opening statements (the editorial part), which is pretty blatent, at least to me.
barfly wrote:
like they need help.
HomeGnome wrote:
All Cali has beach out the front door, ski slopes out the back - Cherry Creek is in my garden
gotta go
Yes, but cheap can mean affordable, too, and does more often than not in English. Why focus on that part anyway?
True story. An agency ordered laptops for use in the field. All the laptops came in and were stored in the warehouse. Three years later they were released. Somehow they didn't meet the standards for the current software so they all had to go back.
Ouch!
And then you have Barfly's quote from the article:
He isn't questioning the quote, he's criticizing the editorial content, which you just gloss over in your "innocence". How many times have we heard "I just posted the link" from you? The "link" which you posted substituted the word "cheap", which you either disown or claim is "equivalent" to "affordable". Business Insider is allowed to editorialize, and commenters here are allowed to point out their subtle distortions.
Cinco's technique is a cheap trick, and I've spotted them many times, which is why he claims he has me on "ignore" (even though he sometimes responds). Please keep me on "ignore".
Yancey Ward wrote:
Because he's a Fanboi of the present administration....
thanks again, yogi.
nova wrote:
As a Cadet, we used to stop at a huge warehouse in Philly on the way back from the Army/Navy game. They had stuff like surgical gowns, etc. saved from as far back as WWII waiting to be used "in an emergency". 3 years ain't that bad. At least they weren't Korean Era C rations.....
Can't afford any more time, got a squash game.
Later.
is the fence ground level? I would personally do the fence....I bet you could land a good floor guy right now on cash basis
Can a S corporation buy a house?
nova wrote:
An S corporation can buy a building and rent it to another S corporation, or presumably to residents.
nova wrote:
Sure. LLCs are formed to buy houses all the time. An LLC picks to file as a full or S corp.
poic wrote:
Good call. It's a horrible job, really. Floor mechanics get their kids to do it, and pay them squat.** Make sure you look at their work before you hire them. ** Bring a flashlight, and shine it at a low angle to the floor-- bend down so you can see along the angle. That way you'll pick up all the mistakes.
And make sure you get a quote that includes everything-- from set up, to staining, to cleanup. Don't let them put the stain in the finish-- you want 2 steps. If you don't want the floor to yellow over time, you'll have bleach and whiten the floor before you put down the finish. And that finish will have to be water based. OTOH if you want a golden tone that looks like traditional varnish, you can use an oil based finish. If you're crazy, like me, you can use the OSMO oil and wax finish, and recoat once a year.
wafdof wrote:
Talked to a neighbor who had visited another neighborhood open house. She told me, "they staged it real nice and beiged it out."
Thank you Cinco and Josap.
They probably got the Commodore 64s there in their original wrappers.
screw the S-corp, what you need is a family office. that's what all the cool kids do these days.
Family office - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Japanese Debt And Growth - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
All problems are the same and therefore need the same fix.
I got my economic doom here and my society in decline doom there.
The last part comes first.
Chicken and egg pavel?
REBear wrote:
If you wanted to set up a non-profit org and house it. Could you create a S corp to buy the house and then rent it to the non-profit? Same officers for both? If the S Corp quit making payments the non-profit wouldn't be to blame or take a hit?
Vonbek777 wrote:
I prefer the Judge Dredd* view of a future America
Mega-cities on the east and west coasts plug Texas. The rest of the country is called "the cursed earth". Armed Judges dispense instance justice to the masses.
~splat
Note: this is 'graphic novel' not that god-awful movie
Chicken and egg pavel?
I don't think so, Nova. I think we're seeing a hollowing out of the personality, and a growing emptiness in society. The economy is a secondary phenomenon.
A Marxist would say that economic relations determine social relations, but I'm not a Marxist.
One could make a case for economic determinism, but I think it's a false trail.
Pavel,
I would say the destruction of the environment is a direct reflection of both. The destruction moving in tandem with the malignant growth and inner decay of the other.
nova wrote:
Time to consult a lawyer. Note that for a corporation to have a "veil" of protection, it must "act" like a corporation, and that might be more difficult with the same officers for both.
OT:
What every college graduate wants:
2004 - iPod
2008 - iPhone
2012 - iJob
HomeGnome wrote:
My son kayaks there on occasion. There's a fall near there (tributery) named after him. "Dougies Demise"
Pavel,
I would say the destruction of the environment is a direct reflection of both. The destruction moving in tandem with the malignant growth and inner decay of the other.
Nova, causal relations aside, it is possible to survive an economic debacle, but a sufficiently serious environmental setback could put paid to us.
Rajesh wrote:
Perhaps we could on-shore manufacturing of them ?
~splat
Steve finally breaks down and sells out name..
splat wrote:
We already do that. It's called working for the government.
Nova,
The more history you read, the more you realize that the species has survived as long as it has because its technology hasn't been potent enough to do away with it, and the environment has been relatively benign.
One wonders.
splat wrote:
YouTube - Anthrax - I Am The Law
That reminds me, it is dinner time.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Meg Whitman, it is estimated, is already around the $100-110 million mark in terms of funds raised. A total of 90 percent of it has come from her own pocket, and that could easily generate a lasting dilemma for the Republican nominee:
The Orange Demon
And Brown is up six points.
Whitman has upside-down favorability, with a spread that is far worse (30/50) than Jerry Brown's (41/43). What's more, the negative opinion of Whitman cuts across party and ideological lines. Most starkly, she is reviled by Independents, with a 21/61 favorability spread.
picosec wrote:
Awesome!
Why do business people want political office?
"And that finish will have to be water based. OTOH if you want a golden tone that looks like traditional varnish, you can use an oil based finish. If you're crazy, like me, you can use the OSMO oil and wax finish, and recoat once a year."
scone you sound as crazy as my wife. (:
We just spent 40 hours over 3 days paintin upstairs credit so I figure were good for the grunt work of putting up a fence. The ground is pretty level.
Thanks Cinco-X for the reply.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
It's the next logical step...
bored megalomaniacs can get that way. You can only make so much money, and the longer you stay in business, the more likely you go from hero to failure. They all fail in politics, but the perks of power are sweet, and heck, youve still got your money.
They can also keep the power while largely shirking responsibility, which really must be convenient, but I will never know, since I have the reverse.
nova wrote:
Good luck on the home front, or the doom front; whatever you prefer to call it
pavel.chichikov wrote:
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it ws the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us; we were all going directly to Heaven, we were all going the other way.
Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
Each era believes it is special: that it's problems are more dire and unsolvable than those of the eras before it. That the time before was better and less complicated. The last age was the golden age and the current times a dark age.
I think Haywood should run for the Prime Ministership so he can race down the Thames on his yacht while an infuriated mob burns London to the ground.
I think it's time for me to watch V for Vendetta for the 146th time.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Lord Mayor is a grander title.
Each era believes it is special: that it's problems are more dire and unsolvable than those of the eras before it.
Rajesh, do you think we've never heard that before?
Do you know the expression: Teach your grandfather to suck eggs?
Previously I reported on a condo building down the street where the underground garage flooded destroying many of the cars parked there, shorting out the electrical system and causing the building to be evacuated. I just spoke to a resident of the building and learned something new about condo insurance.
He said that if you are a renter and you have to evacuate, you're screwed. If you're a condo owner, you think your homeowner's insurance will pay expenses involved in your forced evacuation. Nope, since it's due to a flood, unless you have flood insurance too, he says, the insurance won't pay for your temporary relocation. Unless you live on the top floor on on this first floor, who has flood insurance?
bored megalomaniacs
I deleted those two words before I posted. It must be the zeitgeist posting.
I have theory about the California governors race. The people realize it is easier to change the governor than the legislature, so Brown will win in November and the Democrats in Sacramento get one last chance to fix the collapsing government without being able to blame the other party.
And after politics, the next logical step is banking and finance.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I think Haywood should run for the Prime Ministership so he can race down the Thames on his yacht while an infuriated mob burns London to the ground.
The Thames is a small river, however, the population *is *unarmed. It might be more apropos if he were to race down the Appalachicola or the Pearl, dodging the natives' fire..... Deliverance-style.
And after politics, the next logical step is banking and finance.
How about governor of the moon?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
You have heard, but have you learned?
That would be the logical step if we were doing the choosing for them.
Cinco - Doom story
You have heard, but have you learned?
Well, who am I to judge? But when I read that the phytoplankton of most of the oceans is being depleted, and I consider that it might even be true, it occurs to me that we could be contemplating the unprecedented.
sorry pavel, I was called away to hook up an XBox
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Don't believe everything you read. Especially when they make a sweeping statement based on very little data.
The media has learned what stories sell newspapers (or web ads.)
scone wrote:
Once upon a time, I did things D.I.Y. as much as possible. But fairly quickly, I realized I had an idiot for a supervisor.
The lesson came around again in my current house, where former occupant/owner redid his own basement. I guess he considered himself a "tool guy."
Contractor later told me, "it's a wonder this place didn't burn to the ground. His electric work was a fire waiting to happen."
I still shudder at that comment.
Rajesh wrote:
True dat.
Ja, that's OK.
Another book I recommend besides Sarah Gainham's novel Night Falls on the City: Karl Kraus's The Last Days of Mankind. If you read German you can get the unabridged version: Die letzten Tage der Menschheit. But it's very difficult - lots of Viennese dialect.
Don't believe everything you read. Especially when they make a sweeping statement based on very little data.
So you assure me that nothing's up with the plankton? Based on what data?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Measurements of the activity of plankton from satellites (for purposes of calculating the amount of carbon they take up) indicate they are more active than they were from previous measurements but not as much as theory had predicted. It's a big ocean and its hard to know what is going on. So I would have to say we don't know. I feel more comfortable saying what we measured than extrapolating to what going on all around the world.
The Earth is stable. Nothing bad every happens within a human lifetime, especially my lifetime. I see nothing. Besides, I don't like to worry - I have enough to worry about, and there's nothing I can do about it anyway. I have my life, and that's all there is, and nothing can affect it, especially if I keep quiet and mind my own business. If I don't bother it, it won't bother me - whatever it is. It's all sensationalism anyway. Now is different. Science will save us. Smart people will save us. Things don't change that quickly. Life goes on. What do eggheads know?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Because a lot of them are into cost-cutting, you can remove a whole layer of cost from the corporate equation. ie. you have to pay the lobbyist to bribe the politico and even then they're not 100% bought. There a lot of cost there. Cut the politico and the lobbyist out of the equation and hey presto you can work on the corporate friendly legislation directly.
~splat
pavel.chichikov wrote:
That they were here before the chickens?
Planktology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sometimes you eat the krill, and sometimes the cephalapoda eats you.
Producers, consumers, and recyclers.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Sums up my life
~splat
Measurements of the activity of plankton from satellites (for purposes of calculating the amount of carbon they take up) indicate they are more active than they were from previous measurements but not as much as theory had predicted. It's a big ocean and its hard to know what is going on. So I would have to say we don't know. I feel more comfortable saying what we measured than extrapolating to what going on all around the world.
And you get this from a news story? Or perhaps a comment box?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I'm not saying there aren't problems but it is easy to look at the media and get a end-of-world or everything-is-rosy message depending on which media you view. It would be nice if the media could sort out what's important and what's not; they used to try in the old days but they didn't always get it right.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Based on that line it's clearly not from an economist.
~splat
I feel more comfortable saying what we measured than extrapolating to what going on all around the world.
Yeah.
Via ovum cranium difficilis est
Rajesh wrote:
In the 'old days' it wasn't purely a case of the news being the "infotainment division" of a media mega-corporate.
~splat
Wow, that post was just unintelligible. I couldn't believe I was reading CR. How do people who communicate like that make a living?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Actually, it was a mention in a climate change blog that I followed a link to the paper. Their methodology was somewhat technical; I understand the image processing side but don't have the background to judge their biological claims. I think it's one data point on the state of the oceans.
Via ovum cranium difficilis est
It's a motto taken from an heraldic shield: "I do it by putting an egg inside my skull."
pavel, you are a treasure -
"Based on that line it's clearly not from an economist.
~splat"
I found a set of keys under a light. As an
economist I extrapolate to I will find a set of keys under every light.
I think it's one data point on the state of the oceans.
Phytoplankton are key life forms on this planet. It's really quite important to get this right.
Bless you, barfly.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I'd favor more funding to research the state of the oceans. Considering the other things the government wastes its money on.
splat wrote:
Executives are paid to boost company's bottom line.
Politicos are paid to boost bottom line of the majority who elected them.
In a global economy, the two goals do not converge.
I'd favor more funding to research the state of the oceans.
We have all the time in the world, and after all, what can little plants do to us?
Two women at the zoo gaze at the gorilla.
-- Could you marry him?
-- No, I don't think so.
-- Why, he's not bad is he?
--True, but I wouldn't marry him.
-- Why not?
-- He has no money.
(Russian joke I heard in the 80s).
link
Ocean greenery under warming stress : Nature News
12th Percentile wrote:
It was a good run for us stupid, greedy monkeys. It is almost a good thing that we never got off the planet if we never turn this crap around.
yagij wrote:
12th Percentile wrote:
One of the flaws in the study I mentioned was that the satellites did not have good visibility in the high latitudes. The Southern Ocean is a big contributor to global plankton biomass. You really need data points from there to make any kind of judgement. I don't know if they had data from that region and how they adjusted their data if they didn't.
JP
you might have seen this, because Intel got it on all the gadget blogs, but InP laser / Ge detector on Si photonics. mass commercial application seems imminent
RE
looks like Google is addressing android's weak spot with developers, licensing of apps to counter piracy. makes you wonder if Google didn't have a hand or forewarning about the Library of Congress' legalization of rooting/jailbreaking
Android Developers Blog: Licensing Service For Android Applications
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Google Asks NSA to Help Secure Its Network | Threat Level | Wired.com
It occurs to me that the debate over climate warming doesn't even matter so much when it comes to such gross changes in the biosphere. Whether the reason is warming, or other factors in combination with warming, whether it is completely anthropogenic or not - that becomes irrelevant if such changes are really happening.
We have to get on it now, find out what's happening now, pronto. They used another method, an inferential one, at high latitudes, if I understood correctly.
This reminds me of the stratospheric ozone episode. It had to be settled fast, and universally. And it was. Nations that were barely on speaking terms, almost at war in some cases, settled on a treaty in Montreal in 1987.
This is of similar importance. If plankton are OK, fine. But we must find out soon.
Rajesh
NEPTUNE Canada: Network
there's a US side of the project too. seems like an obvious way to spend money, it enables so many possibilities that it cannot help but pay for itself eventually -- public outreach/education, science research of all kinds, national security, ... heck even the insurers would benefit from earthquake/tsunami data
Tax Credit Goose?
Is that anything like a Black Swan?
wally,
Do you still believe the economy is recovering?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Plankton have survived conditions much worse than anything humans have thrown at them. I don't worry about plankton as a whole. They will survive.
Humans, I give better than 70-30 odds that they will survive the next hundred years.
....how did this thread evolve from "dumb builders" to ocean algae blooms and the end of the world?
...........I hear Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is ready for tomorrows protests,
This might make for good theatre. Deputy levels and jail staff are at readiness.....
I'd hate to be housed in that tent jail in pink panties on a 100+ degree day tomorrow..........ask Barney Frank how he feels about it...
Humans, I give better than 70-30 odds that they will survive the next hundred years.
And you're willing to wait a hundred years to collect?
Goodnight, pavel. Rest well.
Sheriff Joe is all about theater and media coverage I thought.
if a problem with high level plankton (krill) existed, the result would be a reduction of baleen whales.
Perhaps "Nature" doesn't ask these questions before they publish these studies, but I highly doubt it.
What part of a 40% drop in 100 years doesn't worry you? And what if it was only 20%? To put things in perspective
dood, humans recycle carbon whether they want to or not.
My Way News - Judge blocks parts of Arizona immigration law
Friday's GDP number will a be reverse Goldilocks.
Too cold for a V-shaped recovery.
Too hot for Fed action.
Somewhere in-between.
....how did this thread evolve from "dumb builders" to ocean algae blooms and the end of the world?
WOOT!!! Never know whats goin on around here. Plankton, alge, end of the human race. How bout that pacific gyre thats full-o-trash?
Given enuf time the commentariat can solve all mankinds problems. If only mankind would just pay attention to us.
nova wrote:
Power is his thing. And control.
ArcelorMittal to boost steel price - The Globe and Mail
i am receiving... some kind of telepathic message
"yippee ki-yay"
Sheriff Joe probably wears pink panties himself; a la Hoover.
FD: I'm long carbon.and short footprints.
poic wrote:
Oh yeah, fences are trivial. Dig hole, square up post, throw in concrete, nail on cedar. If you want to get fancy, you can raise the wood above the concrete with Simpson clips and ties. Up here in New England, they use granite for the posts, that looks nice and withstands the weather.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Funny thing: I was part of a team doing GaAs-on-Si back in the late 80s. We had Si-driven LEDs (at the then awesome speed of 100MHz LOL).
Bowers & the UCSB crew are a great team, but the distance from research-to-product is quite great for that technology (esp since vanilla waveguide technology is so damn cheap.)
That said, I'd love to see III-V on Si finally take off. Good luck to them.
YouTube - Primus - My Name Is Mud
A little thread music to go with the
s.
12th Percentile wrote:
Nature is a scientific journal. The papers discuss methodology and measurements, they present the data and they estimated an answer based on just that data. Scientist then try to poke holes in the methodology and try to confirm the data. A paper is just part of the scientific process; it is not the end point, even in a prestigious journal like Nature.
We have plenty of evidence that pollution and global warming are stressing the biosphere. But you can not extrapolate that to a doomsday scenario. That doesn't lead to good headlines, so you get media either overplaying or underplaying the implications.
Coyote Blog » Blog Archive » More Great Moments in Regulation
schoolyard bully calls, Calvinball.
I am trying to write a story about the rise of an alternative political/religious movement in the US as the economy collapses. What better way then to buy a house to put your people in, make 3 payments, and quit paying?
We found a nice house in Fairfax. It was a custom build on a fill in site in a neighborhood that had seen better days not all that long ago. The better days hadn't lasted long enough for most of the people living there. I knew neighborhoods like that and had even moved a couple from a house a couple blocks over. That was an easy job. A Central American couple. I explained that if they didn't leave in 24 hours an anonymous tip would lead the police to some illegal narcotics that would be traced back to them. They understood. They left. I got paid.
Fire was very good at organizing and money. We bought the house with relatively little difficulty. I set up a S Corporation to buy the house. I probably could have created a non-profit and had that buy it but I wanted to keep the non-profit from being tainted. I wanted that as separate stand alone entity that we could move that around with us. After all, I planned on burning the place down eventually.
American Apocalypse
how do you break the lock that Cummins has on North American urban transportation.....Yu cant do it.
JP wrote:
I bet you had to babysit and record the bit error rates by hand while keeping an eye on the temperature for days on end ?
if you read the press release (and linked ones for other components), it seems to me Intel is saying they have all the components and fabrication working; that it's a matter of integrating it into a product and ramping up production.
unless you care to tell me what I'm missing (improving yields, waiting for higher bandwidth to make it worthwhile, temperature, physical fragility??)
I don't go to the media for my science. The media is purely entertainment. Pavel was discussing science. As is the Nature article. You are talking headlines. By doing this it appears you are trying to discount the science.
Isn't is bad enough we had people like Sebastian here trying to discount the economic reality and buying in to all the "second half recovery" crap in the media the past three years?
Anyone who comes to this site knows the media is a corporate advertising vehicle that is not interested in the facts. That is why we are here.
I thought I heard crackhead kudlow say that arcelormittal was gonna CUT prices by something like 43%. But.. . considering the source. . ummm?
On the other hand I remember reading somewhere (here?) that contracts were signed a couple months ago that would raise ore prices something like 80% +.
Confusion weighs heavy on the mind of a burnedout ex-hippie turned air traffic controller.
time for a smoke.
@ POIC -- If you're going to use pressure treated wood, even the new stuff with no mercury, make sure you don't get it on bare skin. And wear a respirator when you're cutting it. Even though the new stuff is supposed to be safer, you don't want to be a gummit statistic with brain and nerve problems, like me. :makes disturbing twitching gestures:
12th Percentile wrote:
The science is the data that they collected. I respect the data. I think that the conclusions drawn from just one data set need to be taken with a grain of salt. They may be right but they could also have a bias in either their analysis or in their measurements. When other people poke through the work and collect their own data, we will have a better picture. As I mentioned before other studies have come to different conclusions. Which science should we respect?
New Test Scores Show New York Students Struggling - NY Times
I'm so glad we elected a billionaire mayor who works for nothing. The guy knows how to really get the job done. If the schools aren't producing students with better test scores, make the tests easier, then brag about it and get elected to an illegal third term.
Billionaire politicians show us how it's done.
I know: if we laid off more teachers or cut their benefits the schools would "work" better.
then everything delivered is a lie, including but not limited user content.
I think a cat is working off some legacy issues in order to open an incredible opportunity for an urban transportation inter-modal model that actually creates jobs, supports domestic producers and recyclers gets off its collective ass.
OK, which one of you clowns is "Jason Hodge"?
Doomsday shelters making a comeback - USATODAY.com
ArcelorMittal to boost steel price - The Globe and Mail
a hedge fund masquerading as a steel company: leveraged buyouts, cramming union concessions, and oligopolizing the steel market...
Report: DoD Can't Account For $9.1B In Iraq Funds - Defense News
" the remaining $8.7 billion was "vulnerable to inappropriate uses and undetected loss.""
"Undetected loss" sounds good.
Is that you Gus?
REBear wrote:
why even report it? a. no one cares (i.e., pays attention) and b. it's not a huge sum of money anymore.
If the bullshit were pure, you'd be able to sniff it easily. But TPTB mix the bullshit with a little truth and pure joy, just to get you all excited and confused. Mix that further with the nesting instinct, and there you go-- epic disaster based on fundamental human desire.
scone wrote:
Just like TPTB to step on the product.
I wouldn't doubt those missing Iraqi billions are sitting palatized in some forgotten warehouse somewhere -
War is a racket.
Just looked at Wiki for what happened in the year 1930.
How do you compete with a year that Mahatma Gandhi sets off on a 200-mile protest march towards the sea and Hostess Twinkies were invented.
By immediately saying you won't trust any conclusions even when it is in a rather prestigious journal because there is other science "you know of" that says something different, you are contributing to the dumbing down of the whole population. Not that it could get much dumber.
I'm willing to hear economists debate inflation vs deflation until the end of time. They all have their opinions. Science and facts aren't opinions.
Please point me to the information you claim contradicts these findings.
I don't know many multimillionaire research scientists. Plenty of them at the big energy companies who want to convince people that the science shouldn't be trusted.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Productization is exactly the issue. For example: Getting the two substrates with mismatched thermal expansion coefficients to operate during the temperature cycling qualification is not fun. It might not even be possible to pass BellCore-type specs with whatever bonding method they've chosen. (It didn't sound like a regrowth from the PR, and the actual paper has not come across my desk.)
OTOH: perhaps I'm an old cynic. I've seen so many "Yields of one" technologies that they all look the same after a while.
"You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
-- Mahatma Gandhi
I just want to go on the record and let you know "The war on creating, disposing, and recycling of garbage is not bullshit. Bullshit is pure gold."
Wildly OT... or not. What would happen if the earth stopped spinning...
If the Earth Stood Still
Science!
Science and facts aren't opinions.
unless, of course, the science involves drug trials, in which case, it's all opinion.
nova wrote:
How about a flashback that talks about a
introducing you to the 'business'?
bANK fAILURE wrote:
I'd say rabbit shit is pure gold for its non-burning qualities.
and those damn rabbits make a TON of it.
NY Chief Judge clears Governor Paterson.
Too late to save his reputation. The Cuomo machine needs to be fed.
WBFO: Governor Paterson cleared of witness tampering (2010-07-28)
REBear,
I don't know. In this story they begin by trying to burn down banks. Might cook a fat cat.
YouTube - Thomas Dolby - She Blinded Me With Science (2009 Digital...
nova wrote:
oops.
"So for you “home data folks” who I guess because of ignorance add closed existing home sales to new SF home sales based on contracts signed/deposits taken (as reported by Census) to measure total home sales – stop it, it’s just wrong, and doing so makes you look like a fool!"
To be fair, even the MSM pointed out the difference in new and existing home sales in reporting recent results.
So far they have only managed to singe a few ATM's but this takes place in America so I am sure they will get better at it.
OT, but want to thank Ken publicly for his help today getting my tile posted. Some days I'm just lame. but I usually mean well.
Ive shared too much once again,
nova wrote:
YouTube - the burning of the isla vista bank america (1970)
Tom in AZ wrote:
I wish my two canines were so peaceful when traveling...
Second Great Depression Rhymes. Movement of people to better places. Texas is the new California and when the jobless come in their SUVs (paid for by free rent) they will be called Calis. Calis=Oakies. Someone will write the new novel the Tofu of Trauma.
Just waiting for the lack of water. And Pa and Adrogynous Boy Brown. The old ma and pa guberanatorial team now fully new age.
The long call is an Obama war to escape the New Normal.
This the best that might be hoped for. Otherwise, secession will be reincarnated. No one will pay for California's excesses and besides porn is free now.
There is already a name. Texoma.
Halliburton is shoving tons of 590 different chemicals underground to hydrofrack gas in NY.
We can't even find out which chemicals.
Fracking - SourceWatch
later - thx for the link gnomish one
What if San Jose Costa Rica stood still?
The Day San Jose Stood Still