MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications increase slightly last week
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 07/28/2010 - 4:00am (35 comments)
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Good morning dooma loompas...
I missed the last thread, but think about the psychology of saying that only on account of policy did we avert a 2nd Great Depression...
...that's essentialy a way for the Unabankers and their ilk to say after the shift hits the fan "Look, we tried everything and it still happened, it's not our fault"
The 15K tax credit will help those numbers.
Left you a reply in the
thread Which is Worse.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Since they got their's what makes you think they give a flying
what the rest of us think?
We're fast approachig the point where the blame game will be paramount, and if you say, "Through our actions in 2008, we kept the American economy going strong for 2 more years" it has a lot of gravitas if you don't know any better, which describes most of my fellow citizens.
They look at the all the wrong meters. Trade deficit usually heals during a recession but that has not been happening. Unemployment should be by now also be going lower, not happening. What they are looking at is the health of Wall Street, not the Main Street.
Wall Street is easy to choose for economists, it fits right into their nice mathematical models and according to those models, the economy is improving, just like in any other recession. Main Street is an anomaly to them now. Probably disregarding even unemployment figures as "unreliable data".
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Yeah, had to run home real quick and make a phone call. Will reply in a minute.
I like to drive around and see what's happening with my own 2 eyes and they don't lie to me vis a vis cooked numbers, like Wall*Street does...
Try and find some new CRE under construction, go ahead make my day~
It just occurred to me that they are covering their asses. Why? Because these people (Post on prior thread) are not idiots. In all likelihood they are in spin control. It's all about the narrative. Who owns the story of "How" it happened and "What" was done will be able to control how it is fixed and who gets the blame.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It will be for the pols, but the bankers (and their economist proxies) won't have to face the voters. And I doubt they REALLY believe that the
crowd will come looking for them. Because usually those pitchforks and torches are metaphorical. I give it at least a 50% chance that they're wrong and that the ones that don't escape on their 
and 
will end up on the bloody scrap heap of revolution.
I think you're wrong about those fellow citiczens - they might not understand exactly how the economists are flim-flamming them but they will only need to look around them and observe the hoards of the unemployed and underemployed to know to understand that gravitas and academic jargon are worthless.
IIRC nova, that was also done during GDI until the stark reality of countless people, couldn't be spun anymore.
June durable-goods orders ex-defense fall 0.7%
June durable-goods shipments fall 0.3%
June durables ex-transportation fall 0.6%
June durable-goods fall biggest since Aug. '09
June durable-goods below forecasts of 1.0% rise
U.S. June durable-goods orders down 1.0%
nova,
You've hit the nail on the head, squarely.
Remember a few weeks back that increasingly, the USA, Europe and Japan were looking to loan money from Australia and Canada?
800 million people looking to borrow money from 60 million?
...that ain't right
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Of course those of us that studied mathematics understand that models can be gamed. The amazing thing is that the economists don't seem to understand this.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
What the economists, and the
s, need to do is experience life through the lens of having 40% of their income siphoned off in one form or tax or another, just like the little people.
(I was most impressed by N-N's perceptions on the previous thread.)
Mark Zandi on CNBC defending his study.
it's funny, we don't really buy it and neither does CNBC but for different reasons.
(they are the rah rah "all govt is bad all private enterprise is good" of course)
nanoo,
I believe they know, or have a good idea of what the next 6 months will be like. In the GD1 it was national spin for the most part other than what the central bankers began putting out. Now it has to be global. It is no longer about national interests and large corporations. The bankers are united globally. The people are increasingly fractured. Especially in Europe. Divisions are in the global elites best interests. If I ran a multinational the rise of the Tea Party would be a good thing. Encourage anything that divides people. Destroy any movement or idea that looks like it could become national or multinational.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Thing is, I've seen Third World America-Up close and personal. It exists here but is hidden from popular view by corporate owned media. Its just as ugly as I expect it is in Mumbai. I've worked with people, who couldn't even write their own names, terminally ill from working coal mines, abandoned by the companies they spent their lifetimes toiling for. I've seen abject poverty and all the ugliness it brings no matter the nation. Its here and its here in spades but people who are educated and comfortable can't see them.
Not sure how much of 3rd-world America I've been too, but the 3rd world I've seen in India, Cambodia, rural Yemen, etc., lives on $1/day. Theoretically, if America was competing with those people, there wouldn't be global wage arbitrage, but there is. Which would tend to prove that 3rd World America isn't at the level of the 3rd world.....not yet any way. Sorry for my "3rd Word" shorthand...still trying to squeeze in my Skype call.
Well, so the question is, what do you do about it? One thing I see is that our disadvantaged people in the US have is the student loan program, and scholarships, versus those same people in India, Cambodia, rural Yemen, etc. There is much better access to education in the US compared to the rest of the world. And companies in other countries seek American workers with that knowledge. The tough part for Americans is that the job opportunities resulting from that education may no longer within the US itself. That is a major shift of attitude, but also creates lots of economic opportunities for many people as well, both inside of America and outside. Ultimately it is great for the US' balance sheet, since above $105,000 in income, Americans have to pay taxes when working overseas: this means you pay US taxes, but you don't use US services. If done on a very, very large scale, this helps our federal balance sheet a bit as well.
This access to education, therefore, makes me hopeful for a lot of the lower income Americans you speak of. Some people say (on Zero Hedge recently) the lower level engineers in the US can't compete with the best and brightest in India who make lower wages. Well, they are going to have to. This stuff about the "education bubble" to me comes from Americans who see the rest of the world as a tourist attraction rather than an integral component of the global economy that America is part of.
nanoo has Tanta potential.
Yearning to Learn wrote:
You're either part of the tidy group that measures your per$onal worth in million$, or ewe isn't.
nova wrote:
Yeah, but look at the G20 meetings. It is not actually global. Politics (deficits in Germany versus the US) are still local.
sum luk wrote:
Unexpectedly!
This V shaped recovery is becoming stronger.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists,
Yeah. I was painting words with a very broad brush.
I'd like to know when - more or less - you folks think things were otherwise. When were the good old days when bankers were not united globally ? When was it "we" controlled either the economy or politics.
Tea Parties are for children. Grow up.
When I see that word 'recovery' I think of a debt rehab center, where the patients sneak out when nobody's looking and go to the mall to buy a bunch of stuff they don't need, a relapse.
nova wrote:
+1
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
ROFL, well played sir.
baa baa (is that how you spell the sound a sheep makes?)
Horribly flattered but Tanta reigns supreme, much my superior in every way.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Yippidi do dah. Every time I hear this, I notice that that presumption fails to account for the fact that not every grapefruit that passes through "higher education" comes out the other side capable of more than lowering the handle on a drill press all day. Like it or not, there just be whole bunches of people who are incapable of experiencing the thrilling joys of the dirtless 21st century. And until that reality is acknowledged, we're collectively in for a whole lot of pain.
AB: Bravo!
and Nova again nails it in this thread.
Then if you consider the cost of a higher education to the parents, to the student and the subsequent opportunities...the reality BITES. College tuition has far outstripped inflation otherwise. Even this year, tuition is rising yet again.
For some reason, thinking of college grads as grapefruits is really cracking me up this morning.
/wipes eyes/ heh
I'm off to continue the house cleanup. Toodle loo.
Pleased with spreading
y joy