"many more mortgage lenders to file for bankruptcy in 2007 so I would not get worked up about it."
If this is the case, is the view on the street that all these lenders filing won't have an impact on credit availability or lending standards? How is it that deficiencies in the REIC are smoothed over, almost always without even a mention of all the ARM resets coming at those who, with newly tightened standards, will have a very hard time refinancing into a new loan? Not to mention the fact many refinancers can't afford to get into amortizing loans and are relying on another IO or ARM to squeeze out another year or two.
The scene where Eddie Murphy is shaking down Gilbert Godfried (the guy with the real annoying voice from the AFLAC commercials).
Gilbert Godfried counters with a bribe offer of what could be put into one hand that could make Eddie Murphy forget about the contents of the other hand.
That is all they are doing the argument is framed so that resets are an externality to the discusion for someone else to worry about.
It's like that scene from "Titanic" where the boat is tipped completely perpendicular to the water, and the bow is just starting to slide down into the icy seas.
the current Governor here in CT gave much $$$$ for 'mortgage Lenders' to locate here. And they built a huge complex in Middletown, down I 91 17 miles or so from Hartford.
I do hope Mrs Rell (R) makes better choices in her work with the Democratically controlled legislature in formulating 'Universal' Health care for the 400,000 state residents lacking insurance.
Nothing selling here by the way- stuff just sitting- and all these contractors are hurting. Lowe's and Home Depot-parking lots pretty empty.
Red Kite Fund Lost 30% on Metals Bet, Investors Say (Update1)
By Saijel Kishan and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Red Kite Metals, part of a $1 billion hedge fund run by RK Capital Management LLP, lost about 30 percent in January as metals prices tumbled, said two investors in the fund.
The slump followed a 9.4 percent decline in copper last month, said one of the investors, who declined to be identified because details of the fund's performance are confidential. David Lilley, a London-based partner who on Jan. 20 said he was bullish on copper, would neither confirm nor deny the loss in an e-mail today.
Copper and zinc sank on Feb. 2 on concern Red Kite investors would demand their money, forcing the hedge fund to sell contracts to raise cash and driving prices even lower.
Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, said more hedge funds may collapse after the demise of Amaranth Advisors LLC last year.
`Huge Ramifications'
``I don't know who has got what positions and in what, but I know when some of them start blowing up, it's going to have huge ramifications,'' Rogers, the chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., told journalists at a briefing in Sydney today.
``If investors accept a much-longer redemption period, it wouldn't be a problem,'' Robin Bhar, a London-based analyst at UBS AG, said today by phone.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange declined for a sixth consecutive month in January as global inventories increased of the metal, used in wires and pipes.
Money managers have been buying longer-dated metals futures on the London Metal Exchange, expecting rising returns, Bhar said. LME copper trades as far as 63 months forward.
Prices of copper for deliveries in 2010, which are well- bought by funds according to Bhar, have fallen in the past three months. The contract for delivery in December 2010 dropped 23 percent to $3,845 a ton as of today, from $5,020 in November. The same contract was at $3,230 a year ago.
Copper Bulls
It depends a lot on timing,'' Bhar said.If you bought these positions a year ago when prices are much lower, you would have made profits.''
Lilley said on Jan. 20 that prices will rebound on rising industrial and housing demand in China and the U.S. The metal has fallen far enough from its May record to have reached ``fair value,'' and investors should buy now, Lilley said then, in an interview in Shanghai. Prices have since fallen 4.6 percent and last week traded at the lowest since March.
Copper gained $35, or 0.7 percent, to $5,380 a metric ton at 2:53 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Prices are down 39 percent from their May record.
Two hedge funds shut down last year because of wrong-way bets in commodity markets. Amaranth Advisers, based in Greenwich, Connecticut, lost $6.6 billion on gas trades, the biggest hedge fund collapse. MotherRock LP, a $400 million fund in New York, also sh
I wonder why "Tantas lawyers" didnt explain the terms a litle better to the mortgage brokers. It is kind of late now. Next time they meet, it is going to be in court. Fun to watch! Imagine a freshly GED graduate explaining to a jury how a neg. arm, option arm, etc, work. I love it!
NovaStar is in trouble. A lot of California Option Arms on its' books. IndyMac Bank is in a similar situation and they've changed their subprime standards, expecting their peers to follow suit.
I think we'll see more alternate products come to market, longer amortization terms 40 - 50 years and more FHA loans for borrowers with shaky credit. Though some subprime borrowers are going to get stuck.
Yes siree, buy a house when 20, make last payment when 70. Maybe inter-generational loans? Say, how about a system where you swear fealty to the mortgage company and you and your inheritors have tenancy for as long as you support the company with 50% of your income and defend the company against encroachments. How about calling it, for short, serfdom?
Regarding ReadingNLearning's copper posting, the significant aspect is that investors will have to wait to get their money out. However they react, this sort of thing is how all that "liquidity" in the markets starts to freeze up.
The investors can panic and make demands, in which case they lose capital, or they can sit tight and wait for their money - but it's not liquid.
"Our net sales orders for the month ended January 31, 2007 decreased as compared to the same period in 2006 at a greater rate than the 23% decrease we experienced in our most recent quarter. Our cancellation rate for the month ended January 31, 2007 was similar to our cancellation rate during our most recent quarter. "
I just smile at the likes of everyone from Novastar to IndyMac to CFC blythely claiming that tightened standards will squeeze out risk, etc. yadda yadda. Fewer customers, is not the most accurate description. No customers is closer as "real" lenders predate the small pool of remaining credit worthy borrowers. Their business model doesn't work in an enviornment of being middlemen competing with their own suppliers for the same customers.
Longer morgages are not the answer to the problem The market rose on the idea that you would never have to pay the mortgage off-yous could just benefit from permanently rising value. If you weren't able to get on the train now, there would be no hope to in the future. Longer mortgages only increase uncertainty. How much will that 20 year old be able to qualify for? What is the borrower's future income potential? Will the neighborhood retain its value for 50 years? Is the house built to retain it's intrinsic value for 50 years? What would the market be for that house in 25 years, halfway into the mortgage with only a small portion of the principal paid down? The market will not begin again until prices fall significantly or until a new model of renting, leasing or owning is found. By thway, I saw a condo development todat advertising zero down, zero payments, zero interest and free furnishings (no fine print noted)
Yes - now the option ARMS begin to crumple. Remember, those loans are predicated on borrowers being able to refi or sell within a few years, and they can't survive the demise of 100% stated, which has been the major support of some markets.
There is no difference between some types of Alt-A and subprime, just a difference in timing as to when the weakness appears.
Credit default swaps for the financial services sector saw the most active trading in the US, led by Countrywide Home Loans, pushing the auto manufacturing sector out of the leading spot since the first CDS report in March 2005. According to GFI, an inter-dealer broker for credit derivatives, Ford and General Motors activity rounded out the most active CDS list, along with Gap.
take a look at the 2007 tranches. the BBB- are trading down around 92. this is for debt that is one month old. that is an incredible haircut in such a short time.
Indeed, Broker, le mortgage is the dead pledge. Or at least it used to be. Brian made a very nice comment downthread regarding the view bankers used to have that mortgages should be "self-extinguishing" (the gage must mort eventually). Producer, our resident subprime lender, thought that was quite perplexing.
Then again, these libertarian westerners mostly don't use mortgages. They like those Deeds of Trust. (As in "trust me," not as in "trust but verify.")
Tanta, how about these liberal westerners? They like "Fannie Mae kind of trust". Which one do you think is worse? My money(I mean puts) is on Fannie Mae.
I need a lender who will allow an investor to buy a property arranged through short sales at below market value, and use a double escrow to sell the property for a profit. There will be full disclosure of the nature of the transaction to all involved parties. Just need a lender who is okay with no seasoning requirements.
A standard "flip" is defined as A buys B's property and then sells it immediately to C for a profit.
A "double escrow" is defined as A buying B's property with the proceeds of the sale to C, as both transactions occur simultaneously.
A "short sale" is defined as a lender allowing a borrower to avoid foreclosure by selling the property for less than the loan amount. Your average lender is, actually, bright enough to assure that the sales price is the best the market can reasonably offer, since having to write off part of the loan amount does tend to provide a certain motivation.
So you have a broker asking if there is a lender who will volunteer to, in essence, take a preforeclosure loan off another lender's books by letting it first pass through a flip transaction so that the equity the first lender established isn't there can be skimmed off before the second lender takes the loan for a new borrower who received "full disclosure" and then signed the papers anyway.
They know what's up. I'm seeing lenders want proof of 90 days seasoning of ownership now. And, my state, Utah, outlawed most types of simultaneous closings several years ago. Guess where much of the mortgage fraud we had was taking place? You guessed it, simultaneous closings. The buyers were typically first timers and Hispanic.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - MGIC Investment Corp. said Tuesday it agreed to merge with Radian Group Inc. in a stock swap. MGIC, Milwaukee, said it will exchange 0.9658 share for each share of Radian, of Philadelphia. MGIC said the combined company, to be called MGIC Radian Financial Group Inc., will have nearly $15 billion in assets and more than $290 billion of primary mortgage insurance in force.
dryfly, it looks to me that I have to buy a diamond ring in order to apreciate the beauty of the french language. It seems to be working! Don`t be so sure about "la petite morte" and dying though! I have heard some weird stories!
Mortgage refers to the killing off of the balance...but that's the old-fashioned way to do business.
Nous avons maintenant "les mortgages avec interet soulement, interet variable, et beaucoups d'honoraires (fees-n-commissions) pour les vendeurs".
"Herb Greenberg (MarketWatch) submits: Trouble in subprime land? It's everywhere, and it's finally catching up with NovaStar (NFI), which has been the focus of this column (for better or worse) for around five years, during which time the stock has just about done a full round trip. It was off nearly 8% yesterday to close at $18.90; it hasn't been this low in nearly three years. I think it's about $3 away, adjusted for splits, from where it was when I first red-flagged it.
Now hear this: A compilation of delinquency data provided by the subprime mortgage provider (you have to pull it all together from its website -- no easy task) shows that delinquencies in all outstanding pools of mortgages NovaStar has packaged and sold, as of the end of January, have leaped to 8.7%, or roughly double from a year earlier -- and a mere 2.83% at the end of 2004.
Subtract out the most recently originated pool and the delinquencies jump to 9.33%. They leap to 11% in pools at least a year old. Those less than a year old, meanwhile, have ratcheted up to 6.54%, or more than triple a year ago. (On all of those, the majority are more than two months late.)"
It's been 45+ years since I took legal history in law school, but I believe a MORTGAGE (literally DEAD Pledge not DEATH Pledge) is distinguished from a "normal" pledge in that the one who holds the pledge does not have use and enjoyment of the pledged property.
Think of a "normal" pledge as deposit of the property at a pawn shop, and a mortgage as a paper transaction where the pledgee can have use and enjoyment of the property only after default and you will get the idea. Its the property that is "dead" to the pledgee, not one or the other of the parties.
More anecdotal info....just got the first real estate flyer in a long time....a longish list of homes (20 or so homes, no longer constrained to the neighborhood, but instead covering the whole town)....all listed "pending sale"....not a single "SOLD!".
At the prices listed, I'm guessing these folks are all contingent on selling their prior homes before they can move up.
Either the market will stall or price drops will start showing up on the lower end as these folks begin to realize they cannot move if they don't reprice their own homes. I guess the question is, how low will they have to go.
FIRST!!
Get help Billy.
"many more mortgage lenders to file for bankruptcy in 2007 so I would not get worked up about it."
If this is the case, is the view on the street that all these lenders filing won't have an impact on credit availability or lending standards? How is it that deficiencies in the REIC are smoothed over, almost always without even a mention of all the ARM resets coming at those who, with newly tightened standards, will have a very hard time refinancing into a new loan? Not to mention the fact many refinancers can't afford to get into amortizing loans and are relying on another IO or ARM to squeeze out another year or two.
Nikki:
Ever see Beverly Hills Cop II (I think).
The scene where Eddie Murphy is shaking down Gilbert Godfried (the guy with the real annoying voice from the AFLAC commercials).
Gilbert Godfried counters with a bribe offer of what could be put into one hand that could make Eddie Murphy forget about the contents of the other hand.
That is all they are doing the argument is framed so that resets are an externality to the discusion for someone else to worry about.
It's like that scene from "Titanic" where the boat is tipped completely perpendicular to the water, and the bow is just starting to slide down into the icy seas.
Funny thing folks
the current Governor here in CT gave much $$$$ for 'mortgage Lenders' to locate here. And they built a huge complex in Middletown, down I 91 17 miles or so from Hartford.
I do hope Mrs Rell (R) makes better choices in her work with the Democratically controlled legislature in formulating 'Universal' Health care for the 400,000 state residents lacking insurance.
Nothing selling here by the way- stuff just sitting- and all these contractors are hurting. Lowe's and Home Depot-parking lots pretty empty.
Bloomberg reports:
Red Kite Fund Lost 30% on Metals Bet, Investors Say (Update1)
By Saijel Kishan and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Red Kite Metals, part of a $1 billion hedge fund run by RK Capital Management LLP, lost about 30 percent in January as metals prices tumbled, said two investors in the fund.
The slump followed a 9.4 percent decline in copper last month, said one of the investors, who declined to be identified because details of the fund's performance are confidential. David Lilley, a London-based partner who on Jan. 20 said he was bullish on copper, would neither confirm nor deny the loss in an e-mail today.
Copper and zinc sank on Feb. 2 on concern Red Kite investors would demand their money, forcing the hedge fund to sell contracts to raise cash and driving prices even lower.
Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, said more hedge funds may collapse after the demise of Amaranth Advisors LLC last year.
`Huge Ramifications'
``I don't know who has got what positions and in what, but I know when some of them start blowing up, it's going to have huge ramifications,'' Rogers, the chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., told journalists at a briefing in Sydney today.
``If investors accept a much-longer redemption period, it wouldn't be a problem,'' Robin Bhar, a London-based analyst at UBS AG, said today by phone.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange declined for a sixth consecutive month in January as global inventories increased of the metal, used in wires and pipes.
Money managers have been buying longer-dated metals futures on the London Metal Exchange, expecting rising returns, Bhar said. LME copper trades as far as 63 months forward.
Prices of copper for deliveries in 2010, which are well- bought by funds according to Bhar, have fallen in the past three months. The contract for delivery in December 2010 dropped 23 percent to $3,845 a ton as of today, from $5,020 in November. The same contract was at $3,230 a year ago.
Copper Bulls
It depends a lot on timing,'' Bhar said.If you bought these positions a year ago when prices are much lower, you would have made profits.''
Lilley said on Jan. 20 that prices will rebound on rising industrial and housing demand in China and the U.S. The metal has fallen far enough from its May record to have reached ``fair value,'' and investors should buy now, Lilley said then, in an interview in Shanghai. Prices have since fallen 4.6 percent and last week traded at the lowest since March.
Copper gained $35, or 0.7 percent, to $5,380 a metric ton at 2:53 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Prices are down 39 percent from their May record.
Two hedge funds shut down last year because of wrong-way bets in commodity markets. Amaranth Advisers, based in Greenwich, Connecticut, lost $6.6 billion on gas trades, the biggest hedge fund collapse. MotherRock LP, a $400 million fund in New York, also sh
It took MLN too long to file. Non-event.
Can you guys find out why Novastar dropped today 9% on big volume with no news? Is it one leg into the grave?
Well, if you want to get any remodeling work done on your home, it's going to be really cheap really soon.
Good luck paying for it if you're maxed out, of course......
Cash will be king. Be among few chosen ones having it when everyone will not...
I wonder why "Tantas lawyers" didnt explain the terms a litle better to the mortgage brokers. It is kind of late now. Next time they meet, it is going to be in court. Fun to watch! Imagine a freshly GED graduate explaining to a jury how a neg. arm, option arm, etc, work. I love it!
theroxylandr,
NovaStar is in trouble. A lot of California Option Arms on its' books. IndyMac Bank is in a similar situation and they've changed their subprime standards, expecting their peers to follow suit.
I think we'll see more alternate products come to market, longer amortization terms 40 - 50 years and more FHA loans for borrowers with shaky credit. Though some subprime borrowers are going to get stuck.
Yes siree, buy a house when 20, make last payment when 70. Maybe inter-generational loans? Say, how about a system where you swear fealty to the mortgage company and you and your inheritors have tenancy for as long as you support the company with 50% of your income and defend the company against encroachments. How about calling it, for short, serfdom?
Regarding ReadingNLearning's copper posting, the significant aspect is that investors will have to wait to get their money out. However they react, this sort of thing is how all that "liquidity" in the markets starts to freeze up.
The investors can panic and make demands, in which case they lose capital, or they can sit tight and wait for their money - but it's not liquid.
"Our net sales orders for the month ended January 31, 2007 decreased as compared to the same period in 2006 at a greater rate than the 23% decrease we experienced in our most recent quarter. Our cancellation rate for the month ended January 31, 2007 was similar to our cancellation rate during our most recent quarter. "
DR Horton in their 10-Q today.
I just smile at the likes of everyone from Novastar to IndyMac to CFC blythely claiming that tightened standards will squeeze out risk, etc. yadda yadda. Fewer customers, is not the most accurate description. No customers is closer as "real" lenders predate the small pool of remaining credit worthy borrowers. Their business model doesn't work in an enviornment of being middlemen competing with their own suppliers for the same customers.
Surfdom Mortgage Loans. I think I like it.
Longer morgages are not the answer to the problem The market rose on the idea that you would never have to pay the mortgage off-yous could just benefit from permanently rising value. If you weren't able to get on the train now, there would be no hope to in the future. Longer mortgages only increase uncertainty. How much will that 20 year old be able to qualify for? What is the borrower's future income potential? Will the neighborhood retain its value for 50 years? Is the house built to retain it's intrinsic value for 50 years? What would the market be for that house in 25 years, halfway into the mortgage with only a small portion of the principal paid down? The market will not begin again until prices fall significantly or until a new model of renting, leasing or owning is found. By thway, I saw a condo development todat advertising zero down, zero payments, zero interest and free furnishings (no fine print noted)
Yes - now the option ARMS begin to crumple. Remember, those loans are predicated on borrowers being able to refi or sell within a few years, and they can't survive the demise of 100% stated, which has been the major support of some markets.
There is no difference between some types of Alt-A and subprime, just a difference in timing as to when the weakness appears.
Mortgage, if I remember corectly means death pledge.(french) Kind of "till death or court do us part"!
Their business model doesn't work in an enviornment of being middlemen competing with their own suppliers for the same customers.
Robert, that's a tough spot in business. LOL
Credit default swaps for the financial services sector saw the most active trading in the US, led by Countrywide Home Loans, pushing the auto manufacturing sector out of the leading spot since the first CDS report in March 2005. According to GFI, an inter-dealer broker for credit derivatives, Ford and General Motors activity rounded out the most active CDS list, along with Gap.
The page cannot be found
I wonder which side of the trade will win this one.
ABX is coming back up a bit on the 2006 debt. Secondary market re-assessing things as perhaps not-yet-meltdown time?
Will be interesting to watch this stuff, if the underlying index rates like the LIBOR pop a percent or so.
mozo max
take a look at the 2007 tranches. the BBB- are trading down around 92. this is for debt that is one month old. that is an incredible haircut in such a short time.
Frank, 2007-1 tranch consists of stuff originated in first half of 2006.
Indeed, Broker, le mortgage is the dead pledge. Or at least it used to be. Brian made a very nice comment downthread regarding the view bankers used to have that mortgages should be "self-extinguishing" (the gage must mort eventually). Producer, our resident subprime lender, thought that was quite perplexing.
Then again, these libertarian westerners mostly don't use mortgages. They like those Deeds of Trust. (As in "trust me," not as in "trust but verify.")
Tanta, how about these liberal westerners? They like "Fannie Mae kind of trust". Which one do you think is worse? My money(I mean puts) is on Fannie Mae.
Broker, have you been reading Mish today?
Indeed, Broker, le mortgage is the dead pledge. Or at least it used to be.
Ya but don't trust the French & literal translations... le petite morte is anything but dying.
Sounds like dryfly's diamond ring gambit is paying off.
Le question is how much merde we will have to manger before we mourir.
Today's bon mot from BrokerUniverse:
I need a lender who will allow an investor to buy a property arranged through short sales at below market value, and use a double escrow to sell the property for a profit. There will be full disclosure of the nature of the transaction to all involved parties. Just need a lender who is okay with no seasoning requirements.
A standard "flip" is defined as A buys B's property and then sells it immediately to C for a profit.
A "double escrow" is defined as A buying B's property with the proceeds of the sale to C, as both transactions occur simultaneously.
A "short sale" is defined as a lender allowing a borrower to avoid foreclosure by selling the property for less than the loan amount. Your average lender is, actually, bright enough to assure that the sales price is the best the market can reasonably offer, since having to write off part of the loan amount does tend to provide a certain motivation.
So you have a broker asking if there is a lender who will volunteer to, in essence, take a preforeclosure loan off another lender's books by letting it first pass through a flip transaction so that the equity the first lender established isn't there can be skimmed off before the second lender takes the loan for a new borrower who received "full disclosure" and then signed the papers anyway.
Oddly enough, no lenders have yet volunteered.
Mortgage Grapevine: Double Escrow Need a lender
Tanta,
"Oddly enough, no lenders have yet volunteered."
They know what's up. I'm seeing lenders want proof of 90 days seasoning of ownership now. And, my state, Utah, outlawed most types of simultaneous closings several years ago. Guess where much of the mortgage fraud we had was taking place? You guessed it, simultaneous closings. The buyers were typically first timers and Hispanic.
Nigel
Holy merde.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - MGIC Investment Corp. said Tuesday it agreed to merge with Radian Group Inc. in a stock swap. MGIC, Milwaukee, said it will exchange 0.9658 share for each share of Radian, of Philadelphia. MGIC said the combined company, to be called MGIC Radian Financial Group Inc., will have nearly $15 billion in assets and more than $290 billion of primary mortgage insurance in force.
MGIC Investment to merge with Radian Group via stock swap - MarketWatch
dryfly, it looks to me that I have to buy a diamond ring in order to apreciate the beauty of the french language. It seems to be working! Don`t be so sure about "la petite morte" and dying though! I have heard some weird stories!
Commenting in French? my goodness, CR, your commentators really are an erudite group. Too bad I failed German in high school though...
Mortgage refers to the killing off of the balance...but that's the old-fashioned way to do business.
Nous avons maintenant "les mortgages avec interet soulement, interet variable, et beaucoups d'honoraires (fees-n-commissions) pour les vendeurs".
"Cara Mia, you know what it does to me when you speak French!" -Gomez Addams
Tanta, this is my cultural offering for today.
This is what is driving down NovaStar:
"Herb Greenberg (MarketWatch) submits: Trouble in subprime land? It's everywhere, and it's finally catching up with NovaStar (NFI), which has been the focus of this column (for better or worse) for around five years, during which time the stock has just about done a full round trip. It was off nearly 8% yesterday to close at $18.90; it hasn't been this low in nearly three years. I think it's about $3 away, adjusted for splits, from where it was when I first red-flagged it.
Now hear this: A compilation of delinquency data provided by the subprime mortgage provider (you have to pull it all together from its website -- no easy task) shows that delinquencies in all outstanding pools of mortgages NovaStar has packaged and sold, as of the end of January, have leaped to 8.7%, or roughly double from a year earlier -- and a mere 2.83% at the end of 2004.
Subtract out the most recently originated pool and the delinquencies jump to 9.33%. They leap to 11% in pools at least a year old. Those less than a year old, meanwhile, have ratcheted up to 6.54%, or more than triple a year ago. (On all of those, the majority are more than two months late.)"
NovaStar: Trouble in Subprime Land? -- Seeking Alpha
It's been 45+ years since I took legal history in law school, but I believe a MORTGAGE (literally DEAD Pledge not DEATH Pledge) is distinguished from a "normal" pledge in that the one who holds the pledge does not have use and enjoyment of the pledged property.
Think of a "normal" pledge as deposit of the property at a pawn shop, and a mortgage as a paper transaction where the pledgee can have use and enjoyment of the property only after default and you will get the idea. Its the property that is "dead" to the pledgee, not one or the other of the parties.
Too bad I failed German in high school though...
There is only one word in German you need to know for this blog...
Schadenfreude
... you understand that and you understand it all.
Das ist sehr schlect, und mein Luftkissenfahrzeug ist voller Aale.
Veni Vidi Visa
More anecdotal info....just got the first real estate flyer in a long time....a longish list of homes (20 or so homes, no longer constrained to the neighborhood, but instead covering the whole town)....all listed "pending sale"....not a single "SOLD!".
At the prices listed, I'm guessing these folks are all contingent on selling their prior homes before they can move up.
Either the market will stall or price drops will start showing up on the lower end as these folks begin to realize they cannot move if they don't reprice their own homes. I guess the question is, how low will they have to go.